The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Investing Update: Is Mag 7 Leadership Returning?

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 26 Oct 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Earnings Economics Taxation
  1. The stock market is having a strong run, especially the Nasdaq, which has been up for seven weeks in a row. The Dow and S&P 500 ended their winning streak after six weeks.
  2. Investors seem confident, adding a lot of money to stocks recently, even with the upcoming elections. Earnings from major companies will be more relevant to the market than the election results.
  3. Expect some market ups and downs as the election approaches, but focusing on earnings reports will be more important for making investment decisions.

The Most Important New Disinflation Indicator

Apricitas Economics • 63 implied HN points • 15 Jul 23
💰 Finance Inflation Housing Economic Analysis Monetary Policy Labor Market
  1. The New Tenant Repeat Rent Index provides a more accurate measure of current housing market conditions and predicts future disinflation.
  2. Housing inflation is currently the main driving force behind overall inflation, with non-housing inflation remaining relatively stable.
  3. The 'speed limit' theory of inflation suggests that the growth rate of the labor market, rather than its level, is a key determinant of rent inflation and overall price stability.

Clouded Judgement 7.4.25 - Happy 4th!

Clouded Judgement • 6 implied HN points • 04 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Valuation Markets Startups Tech Sector
  1. Cloud software companies are valued based on their revenue forecasts. With many not making profits yet, revenue multiples are a key way to compare them.
  2. High growth software firms often have much higher revenue multiples than those growing at slower rates. This can help investors spot which companies are likely to grow more in the future.
  3. SaaS companies aim for long-term profits by focusing on growth in their early years. Metrics like cash flow from operations are important to understand a company’s financial health.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
💰 Finance Housing Markets Real Estate Mortgage Rates
  1. Early reports suggest an increase in home sales from January to February.
  2. Closed home sales in February were based on contracts signed in December and January when mortgage rates were lower compared to the previous months.
  3. Inventory for housing markets in January was down year-over-year but has seen a slight increase compared to the previous year.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. House prices, when adjusted for inflation, are currently about 1.5% lower than their peak in 2022. This means that even though prices seem high, they aren't as high as they were last year when considering the money's value.
  2. Real estate prices have been increasing steadily over time, and currently, they are 11% above the prices during the housing bubble of 2006. People should keep an eye on these real prices to better understand the market.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is still down around 8% from its highest point in 2022. This suggests that renting is somewhat more affordable compared to buying, which is an important factor for homebuyers to consider.

The "Home ATM" Closed in Q4

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Debt GDP Real Estate Homeownership
  1. During the housing bubble, many homeowners used their perceived home equity as a 'Home ATM,' contributing to the subsequent housing bust when prices declined.
  2. Refinancing activity declined in early 2022 as mortgage rates rose, leading to a shift where homeowners started using home equity loans to access their equity.
  3. Despite a decline in demand for HELOCs and a decrease in refinancing activity, Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) remained low throughout Q4 2023, indicating balanced equity borrowing and principal payments.

Why I Bitcoin

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 41 implied HN points • 04 Feb 24
💰 Finance Bitcoin Investment Currency Regulation
  1. Understanding Bitcoin's network and cryptography is key to realizing its intrinsic value.
  2. Bitcoin presents a unique opportunity for diversifying wealth outside the traditional monetary system.
  3. Bitcoin's potential for global adoption and decentralized nature make it a compelling investment option.

Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Economy Real Estate Market Trends Construction
  1. Housing starts for December were 1.499 million, which is 15.8% higher than November but 4.4% lower than December 2023.
  2. Single-family housing starts rose slightly compared to November, while multi-family starts saw a drop year-over-year.
  3. Total housing starts decreased by 2.6% in 2024 compared to 2023, with single-family homes seeing a slight increase while multi-family homes declined significantly.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. House prices have been steadily increasing, showing a 3.6% rise year-over-year as of October and continued growth is expected.
  2. There has been a consistent upward trend in house prices, with a 0.35% monthly increase noted, marking the 21st month of growth.
  3. The outlook for house prices in 2025 remains uncertain, with various factors influencing future changes in the housing market.

Robinhood’s Smile

Net Interest • 12 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Financial Services
  1. Robinhood changed the investing game by making it easy and fun, allowing people to trade with no fees. They even added features like free stock for completing tasks to keep users engaged.
  2. After a boom during the meme-stock craze, Robinhood faced challenges as the market dropped, causing many users to lose money and stop trading. Despite this, they found a new way to earn money through higher interest rates.
  3. Now, Robinhood is at a point where they need to decide their future. They can keep focusing on trading like a game or expand into a wider range of financial services.

Europe's second 'China shock' is blessing in disguise

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 09 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy International Trade Inflation Central Banks Manufacturing Macroeconomics
  1. Cheap Chinese exports are once again putting heavy competitive pressure on European manufacturers, repeating a shock similar to two decades ago.
  2. The flood of lower-priced imports is pushing down consumer prices and easing inflationary pressures across Europe.
  3. That disinflation gives the European Central Bank more leeway to cut interest rates in 2026, potentially easing financial conditions and supporting growth.

Corporate investment after rate cuts

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 09 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Macroeconomics Corporate Finance Investment Banking Interest Rates
  1. A one percentage-point cut in policy rates typically raises corporate investment by about 7% over the following two years, though the average masks big differences across firms.
  2. Firms that build long-lived assets (real estate, utilities, healthcare) react much more to rate cuts than companies with short-lived assets like tech and media.
  3. Many companies still won’t invest after rate cuts because of weak opportunities, labour shortages, or a need for cash, so monetary policy works slowly and depends on business confidence — which governments and media can help amplify or undermine.

Oxford JPM Market Breakdown

ASeq Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Trends Stock Performance Financial reports
  1. Oxford's market mostly focuses on research, making up over 80% of their business. This is different from Illumina, which has a bit more than 50% of its work in clinical areas.
  2. There seems to be some confusion about how much applied research is included, as it may come from a service provider.
  3. The information comes from a presentation at the JPM conference, which is aimed at understanding the different market sectors for these companies.

The Stock Market Sits On The Edge Of The End Of The World

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 51 implied HN points • 12 Oct 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Geopolitics Monetary Policy Fiscal policy Global Conflicts
  1. Geopolitical volatility and flawed monetary policy make current times unique and potentially volatile.
  2. Debt levels, monetary policies, and government spending are creating unprecedented financial challenges.
  3. Artificial market boosts, geopolitical tensions, and social unrest are contributing to a fragile economic situation.

Quant Letter: August 2025, Week-2

The Parlour • 4 implied HN points • 12 Aug 25
💰 Finance Quant Finance Economics Crypto Investing Market Analysis
  1. Prymer.ai is a new tool that quickly generates detailed reports for stocks, making the process much faster and easier.
  2. Recent research shows that social media sentiment can help predict financial trends, which might be useful for investors.
  3. A study found that there are potential risk-free profit opportunities in real markets, challenging the common belief that they don't exist.

Searching for von Neumann

Malt Liquidity • 12 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Trading Investing Economics Market Analysis Personal Finance
  1. Finding purpose and fulfillment can be hard, especially when success feels empty. It's important to keep moving and searching for what truly matters in life.
  2. Recognizing our intellectual heroes, like John von Neumann, can inspire us, but it’s also crucial to understand that not everyone's contributions are widely acknowledged.
  3. The changing perception of careers and value in society can lead to a more significant transformation. Future views on work, retirement, and success may look very different.

Predict a Mockingbird: November Week-2

The Parlour • 17 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investment Analytics Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. Companies can show strong or weak financial health based on key metrics like cash flow and profitability. This helps investors decide where to put their money.
  2. Insider trading activities can hint at stock movements. If insiders are buying, it might be a good sign, but heavy selling could be a warning.
  3. Using tools like search interest and news sentiment helps track how a company is viewed in the market. Positive buzz can mean good things for stock performance.

Animal Spirits

Net Interest • 15 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investment Regulation Market Trends Corporate Finance Economic Policy
  1. There's a feeling of optimism in the finance world right now, with a lot of excitement and positive energy among investors.
  2. Many financial leaders believe that changes in regulations could lead to better conditions for banks and companies, making it easier for them to operate.
  3. Executives are hopeful for the future, driven by recent strong performances in the stock market and a more patient regulatory environment.

Malta Liquidity

Malt Liquidity • 12 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Trading Market Analysis Consumer behavior Mental health
  1. Travel can often feel like work, and it's not always enjoyable. Sometimes it’s more about experiencing new places than actually immersing oneself in them.
  2. Taking breaks is essential for clear thinking. Finding time to think deeply without distractions can help improve creativity and problem-solving skills.
  3. Retirement is more about having the freedom to choose how you spend your time. It’s not just about money; it's about being content with how you live your life.

Market Right Now Is "A Story Of Contrasts"

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 13 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Trading Strategies Investment Advice Economic Trends Risk management
  1. The current market is unpredictable and may not be the best time to make forced trades.
  2. It's important to watch for short-term price jumps created by sentiment changes and market positioning.
  3. Relying on experienced traders for insights can be helpful, but always consult a financial advisor before making decisions.

Portfolio Update

Spilled Coffee • 16 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Portfolio Market Analysis Stock Trading Financial News
  1. The author sold shares from a major stock to invest in a favorite stock. This shows a strategy of reallocating assets for potentially better returns.
  2. It's important to regularly update and adjust your investment portfolio based on personal preferences.
  3. The update was shared with paid subscribers, indicating a focus on providing value to a dedicated audience.

The UK stock market concentration problem

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 04 Dec 25
💰 Finance Equities Stock Market Indices Market structure
  1. The big performance gap between the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 in 2025 was driven mainly by just two sectors and only six stocks.
  2. This shows the UK market is heavily concentrated, so broad indexes can be skewed by a tiny number of companies.
  3. Investors should watch concentration risk and consider diversifying beyond headline indexes or checking sector and stock weightings before assuming broad exposure.

Investing Update: Hedge Fund Buys & Holdings

Spilled Coffee • 16 implied HN points • 23 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Economic Indicators Portfolio Management
  1. The stock market is doing really well recently, with all major indices up for the week. The S&P 500 is up 25.1% and the Nasdaq is leading with a 26.6% increase this year.
  2. Historically, there's a trend of market rallies during November and towards the end of the year. Many investors are looking forward to a possible Thanksgiving rally and the annual Santa Claus Rally ahead.
  3. Some data shows that less than half of the S&P 500 stocks are trending up, which could indicate some weakness. However, the current low percentage of large-cap stocks down 20% or more suggests investors are still optimistic.

A new way to look at inflation (revised)

America in Crisis • 19 implied HN points • 24 Jan 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The article provides a different perspective on how the American economy evolved post-WW II by blending inflation concepts and looking at economic performance over different eras.
  2. Inflation and its control play a significant role, with the article discussing the Phillips curve and the quantity theory of money in understanding economic changes.
  3. A key trend highlighted is the rise in financial flows out of the real economy in recent decades, impacting inflation control and economic growth by shifting focus towards financial assets over productivity-enhancing capital.

America's Record Wealth Boom

Apricitas Economics • 45 implied HN points • 26 Oct 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Wealth Inequality
  1. Middle-class Americans have seen a significant increase in wealth, with real median net worth rising by 37% over the last three years.
  2. The SCF provides detailed insights into wealth distribution, tracking assets from cash balances to investments among diverse groups.
  3. Wealth inequality in the US has slightly decreased during the pandemic, with assets held by the middle class rising faster than average.

Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Equity Rates
  1. Most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes, which helps prevent a surge in foreclosures that could impact house prices.
  2. The distribution of interest rates on mortgages shows that a large percentage are under 4%, making it easier for homeowners to manage financially.
  3. Understanding key housing terms like forbearance, delinquency, foreclosure, and REO (Real Estate Owned) can help navigate discussions about property ownership.

Investing Update: Signs Of A Market Top?

Spilled Coffee • 16 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Indicators Inflation Stock Analysis
  1. The S&P 500 reached its 51st all-time high this year, showing strong market performance. However, it ended the week lower, with declines seen across major stock indices.
  2. Inflation is stabilizing, with recent data showing it remains under control. Wage gains have also outpaced inflation for the past 18 months, which is good news for consumers.
  3. Post-election market surges are common, and this trend has continued in 2024. Historically, stock markets tend to do well under a unified government, which seems to be the case now.

March 2023 Residential Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 26 Apr 23
💰 Finance
  1. Residential sales indicate a bullish trend.
  2. Homes being sold are likely to be completed timely, showing a rise in construction activity.
  3. Measures like months' supply are declining as construction schedules move back to normal.

The Anti-Acc Revolution

Malt Liquidity • 13 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Economics Market Analysis Regulations Corporate Governance
  1. The economy is facing serious issues and many people lack trust in institutions. There's a need for immediate change to prevent further decline.
  2. The relationship between major figures like Elon Musk and Donald Trump could shape the future of technology and business. Their actions might determine which companies thrive or struggle.
  3. Current educational and financial systems are broken. There should be better pathways for young people to learn skills and contribute, rather than being overwhelmed by debt and unhelpful degrees.

Trading The Shit Show: November 2024 Market Review

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment strategy Economic outlook Portfolio Management Political Impact
  1. The market is facing changes due to a significant political event, specifically the Trump administration's win. This could lead to a shift in how people invest and view their portfolios.
  2. As the new year approaches, it's important for investors to assess their portfolio positioning. Understanding market trends can help make better financial decisions.
  3. Overall, staying informed about political and economic changes is key for successful trading and investing. Keeping an eye on these factors can influence your financial strategies.