The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

The Market's Mirror, Exhibit "A"

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Economics Stock Trading Financial trends
  1. The stock market might be slowing down soon, which is a concern for investors. It's important to pay attention to popular stocks for signs of this change.
  2. There's a belief that we could be on the brink of a significant market crash that could confuse many investors. Being aware of market behaviors can help prepare for what's next.
  3. Frustration with everyday items could be a sign of larger issues, showing that people are feeling the stress of the current economic situation. This reflects broader feelings about the market right now.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgage Delinquency Banking Housing
  1. Single-family serious delinquency rates showed a slight increase in October, marking 0.55% for Freddie Mac and 0.52% for Fannie Mae. This is still lower than delinquency rates before the pandemic.
  2. Multi-family serious delinquency rates also rose, with Fannie Mae's rate reaching its highest since 2011, excluding pandemic data. This indicates growing challenges in the multi-family housing market.
  3. Delinquent loans are defined as being three or more payments past due or in foreclosure. Despite some increases, many recent loans from 2009 to 2023 are still faring well, indicating overall improvement in loan performance.

The edge in trading IPOs: 18% annual return

Quant Trading Rules • 2 HN points • 08 Jun 24
💰 Finance Trading Investing IPOs Strategy
  1. Marsten Parker's IPO trading strategy focuses on frequently buying and selling IPOs shortly after they go public, with clear rules for entry and exit.
  2. Buying IPOs at all-time highs showed a significant edge over buying non-IPO stocks at all-time highs, with IPOs performing better after 20 days.
  3. Tweaking profit targets and stop-loss orders in IPO trading strategies can significantly impact annual returns, demonstrating the importance of optimizing these parameters for better performance.

The Wholesale Rape Of Canada, by the US Dollar.

C.O.P. Central Organizing Principle. • 18 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
💰 Finance Currency Trade Economics International Investment
  1. Canada has a lot of valuable resources and talent, but many Canadians are struggling with homelessness. This is partly because their economy is being affected by how the US operates.
  2. The Canadian dollar is tied too closely to the US dollar, making it harder for Canada to sell its goods at fair prices. This creates issues for Canadian businesses and workers.
  3. Many Canadians are frustrated with American influence and feel it's time to focus more on their own economy and products. This could lead to significant changes in how Canada interacts with American businesses.
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What If We Run Inflation Hot: Harris Kupperman

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 20 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Economics Inflation Macroeconomics Market Trends
  1. Inflation may rise faster than expected, which could surprise many investors. People are not prepared for high growth in the economy right now.
  2. The recent economic changes have benefited many workers and industries that were struggling for a long time. This includes wage increases in sectors that needed them.
  3. Questions are being raised about whether efforts to control inflation are really aimed at the overall economy or at a specific group of people in the rural areas.

The Real Value of Money

What's Important? • 24 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💰 Finance Money Management Personal Finance
  1. Money is like electricity; it needs to keep moving to hold value. Hoarding it can make it lose its purpose.
  2. The real value of money is about understanding your relationship and feelings towards it. It can show where you need to grow or heal in your life.
  3. Living with love and creativity can lead to unexpected abundance. Focusing on helping others can open up new pathways for receiving.

Additional data on historical housing prices

First principles trivia • 39 implied HN points • 13 May 22
💰 Finance Housing Prices
  1. Single-earner households are becoming rarer, with data showing that median male worker income as a percentage of household income has decreased from 93% in 1963 to 73% in 2022.
  2. While the median home might be more affordable in 2022 compared to 1981, the affordability in popular metro areas like Seattle, Miami, and Santa Clara County in California varies significantly due to factors like income, mortgage rates, and regional price differences.
  3. High prices in 2022 pose challenges for affordability, especially for those needing to save up large deposits for mortgages, with the number of months of income required for a deposit increasing from 2.9 months in 1970 to 5.6 months in 2022.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Trends Sales Data Mortgage Rates Inventory
  1. Existing home sales went up for the first time in over two years, but they are still low overall. Many people signed contracts when mortgage rates were at their lowest in two years.
  2. Florida and Texas are seeing a big increase in house listings, which is affecting prices in those areas. Hurricane Milton had an impact on statistics in Florida.
  3. Each local market has different trends, and some data is compared to figures from 2019 to show changes over time.

25 Stocks I'm Watching For 2025: Part 1

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 20 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Trends Economic Analysis Financial planning
  1. The author is identifying stocks to watch for 2025 based on market trends. This can help investors focus on specific opportunities in the stock market.
  2. In the past year, the stocks chosen performed well but not as well as the overall market, particularly the biggest tech companies.
  3. This post offers insights for paid subscribers, suggesting it provides detailed analysis and guidance for making investment decisions.

Learning from the SaaSification of video games [Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 39 implied HN points • 18 Jun 22
💰 Finance Monetization Business Models Economic Systems Services
  1. Different monetization plans can work successfully in the same industry if built around a good product.
  2. Companies should avoid rushing into monetization at the expense of a good product, as it can damage goodwill.
  3. The shift towards as-a-service models for various industries shows that understanding novel monetization paths is crucial for future success.

From Monte Carlo to Stockholm

HackBoyFly • 1 HN point • 17 Jul 24
💰 Finance Investments Simulation Real Estate Data Analysis
  1. Using a Monte Carlo Simulation can help estimate a wide range of potential outcomes when making investment decisions like buying an apartment in Stockholm
  2. Historical data, mean annual returns, and standard deviations are crucial inputs for simulations to introduce randomness and variability to financial projections
  3. Visualizing simulations through charts can provide insights on possible outcomes, such as optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, aiding in making informed decisions about investments

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.96 million SAAR in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Inventory Levels
  1. Existing-home sales rose to 3.96 million in October, marking a 3.4% increase from September and the first yearly rise since July 2021. This shows a positive trend in the housing market.
  2. Median home prices increased by 4.0% compared to last year, which suggests that despite more inventory, homes are still getting more expensive.
  3. Inventory of homes for sale is up 19.1% compared to last year, indicating more options for buyers, although the months of supply is higher than in pre-pandemic times.

Why Are Gold And The Dollar Trading Together?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 10 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Commodities Market Trends Economic Policy Global Markets
  1. Gold and the US Dollar are sometimes moving together, which can indicate stress in the global market. This unusual connection raises questions about economic stability.
  2. Central banks influence both gold prices and the dollar's value. Higher interest rates can make the dollar seem more appealing, but many still look to gold to protect against inflation.
  3. Events like political chaos and wars can make people feel uncertain, leading them to invest in gold as a safe option during tough times.

Tech-Financial-VC Bubbles

Turnaround • 158 implied HN points • 04 Apr 20
💰 Finance Technology Startups Investing Venture Capital Economics
  1. Financial bubbles follow a pattern of phases - starting with intense innovation funding, moving into financial speculation, and finally reaching maturity before a possible burst.
  2. Technology and financial bubbles can be compared to the Greek myth of Sisyphus, where we continually build and push bubbles until they burst, repeating the cycle.
  3. The current tech bubble seems concentrated within private and venture capital, driven by factors like low interest rates, leading to bigger deal sizes and a shift from IPOs to unicorn aspirations.

Mortgage Rate Update

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 95 implied HN points • 06 Apr 23
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. The most prevalent 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now at 6.18% for top tier scenarios.
  2. There is usually a steady spread between the ten-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rates.
  3. The spread between Treasury yields and mortgage rates has widened recently.

Grading the Trade

The Last Bear Standing • 101 implied HN points • 17 Feb 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation
  1. Balancing risks and benefits involves trade-offs between conflicting goals.
  2. Monetary expansion during the pandemic led to rapid growth but also increased inflation.
  3. The decision to stimulate demand has resulted in inflation battles and uncertainty about future economic stability.

Cannibal Spirits

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Policy Risk management Monetary Policy
  1. Markets can go both up and down, which is a natural part of freedom in trading. It's important to understand that fluctuations are normal.
  2. The term 'animal spirits' is often used to explain market behavior, but many believe it's overused and doesn't accurately describe what's really happening.
  3. There's a perception that the financial system is rigged, relying heavily on inflation and debt, which can create skepticism about the true state of the markets.

All These Things That I Have Longed

Malt Liquidity • 17 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Analysis Speculation
  1. Markets are changing rapidly, and many people seem confused about their movements. This uncertainty can affect how prices are set.
  2. Information processing is key to trading today. Knowing how to filter through news and social media can give a trader an advantage.
  3. There is a growing concern that technology might soon outpace human intuition in trading. If everyone relies on AI, we might lose our ability to think critically about market dynamics.

The Bear is Back!

The Last Bear Standing • 89 implied HN points • 21 Apr 23
💰 Finance Economics Monetary Policy Markets Debt Ceiling
  1. The Last Bear Standing has been renewed for Season Two, with more insightful content on finance and economics.
  2. Season One of The Last Bear Standing made accurate predictions, demonstrating the writer's expertise in financial analysis.
  3. For Season Two, access will require a paid subscription priced at $200 annually or $20 per month.

What Are The Dangers And Rewards Of Doubling Down On Your Investments?

Behavioral Value Investor • 89 implied HN points • 30 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investments Risk management Behavioral Finance Value investing Financial Markets
  1. Doubling down on investments can be risky, make sure to assess potential downsides.
  2. Even successful investors can make mistakes and suffer losses by doubling down.
  3. Before doubling down on an investment, consider factors like financial leverage, funding requirements, and management strength.

Quant Letter: November 2024, Week-4

The Parlour • 21 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Quantitative Machine Learning Investment Strategies Economic Research Portfolio Management
  1. Quanto options pricing can be improved using a mix of models that handle various aspects of finance and asset behavior. This could help in more accurate predictions and simulations.
  2. Hedge funds adapt their activist strategies to align with the preferences of major investors, leading to better results when trying to influence company decisions. This emphasizes the importance of understanding stakeholder interests.
  3. Simple machine learning models can sometimes outperform more complex ones when it comes to predicting financial markets. This shows that less can be more in data analysis.

Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Housing Prices Supply and Demand
  1. House prices are expected to rise by about 3% to 4% in 2024. This prediction is based on the current trends in housing inventory and sales.
  2. The future of house prices in 2025 will largely depend on supply and demand in the market. A shortage or surplus of homes can greatly influence prices.
  3. There are significant differences in home supply across different regions, with areas like Florida and Texas seeing more inventory. This suggests that while national trends matter, local conditions can lead to very different outcomes.

The Aftermath

The Last Bear Standing • 22 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Economic Policy Investment strategy Trade Analysis Stock Performance
  1. After the election, the stock market jumped a lot, especially small and tech stocks, showing a positive reaction to the new leadership.
  2. Different companies reacted in various ways; some like energy stocks did well due to traditional support while others, like solar, saw drops.
  3. Concerns about tariffs and manufacturing shifts are growing, with many companies considering moving production out of China to avoid potential issues.

Capital One and Consumer Credit

The Last Bear Standing • 47 implied HN points • 23 Feb 24
💰 Finance Mergers Banking Sector
  1. Capital One is acquiring Discover Financial Services, creating the largest vertically integrated card provider and the sixth largest U.S. bank by deposits.
  2. Both Capital One and Discover have seen a rise in bad credit among their subprime borrowers in the past two years.
  3. Consumer credit quality has been deteriorating sharply as pandemic savings decrease, interest rates rise, but consumer spending remains high.

Core Scientific says it isn’t “hopelessly insolvent”

Miner Weekly • 19 implied HN points • 04 Mar 23
💰 Finance Bankruptcy Regulation Corporate News Feature Production
  1. Core Scientific believes it is not 'hopelessly insolvent' based on improved market conditions and declining energy costs.
  2. There is a clash between the equity and debt holders of Core Scientific regarding whether the company has reached bottom, with differing opinions on its financial status.
  3. An ad hoc group of stockholders of Core is pushing for representation in the ongoing Chapter 11 case, presenting arguments for the company's solvency given market improvements.

We're "On The Cusp" Of Another Inflationary Breakout

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 17 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Economic Trends Financial Policy
  1. Gold and silver did better than regular stocks in the last quarter, which is unusual. This could mean something important is happening in the market.
  2. Bitcoin had a fantastic year, showing that people are worried about money losing its value. It’s now a big part of some investment funds.
  3. The U.S. government is spending a lot, which helped the economy grow more than expected. But this could lead to inflation issues in the future.

New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic data Inventory Analysis
  1. New home sales went up to a rate of 664,000 in November, showing a good increase from October. This is also higher than the numbers from the same time last year.
  2. The supply of new homes available for sale decreased slightly, now sitting at 8.9 months. This is still higher than the usual range, which is about 4 to 6 months.
  3. The inventory of completed homes is up, with nearly 120,000 available, showing more options for buyers compared to the very low supply in early 2022.

Money Burn

Polymathic Being • 66 implied HN points • 24 Sep 23
💰 Finance Wealth Spending Charity Psychology Support
  1. We tend to hesitate to give fair prices to those in need while easily overpaying for unnecessary luxury items.
  2. We often show generosity to those who don't require it, while driving a hard bargain with those in need.
  3. Our spending behaviors are driven by the dopamine hits we get from scoring bargains and splurging on luxuries; it's about reframing our perspective to support those in need more.

Portfolio Update

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Portfolio Management Economic Trends Personal Finance
  1. The author added to an existing investment in a debated stock. It's important to keep track of ongoing discussions in the market.
  2. This update is specifically for paid subscribers, suggesting exclusive insights for them. It highlights the value of being a paid member.
  3. Stay engaged with financial updates and portfolio changes to make informed decisions. Regular updates can help you understand market movements better.

Why Are Mortgage Rates Rising?

Spilled Coffee • 24 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates Interest Rates Economic Growth Affordability Housing Market
  1. Mortgage rates are influenced by the 10-Year Treasury Yield, which reacts to the economy's growth and inflation expectations. Even though the Fed cut interest rates, mortgage rates have actually gone up because of the rising Treasury Yield.
  2. Currently, the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage rate is at 7.26%, the highest since July, showing a steady rise despite expectations for a decrease. This rise has persisted for four consecutive weeks.
  3. High mortgage rates and low affordability are causing home sales to decline significantly, with September recording the lowest closed sales of existing homes since 2012. Mortgage applications also dropped sharply, indicating a cooling housing market.

More on the Fed and Long-Term Interest Rates

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 17 Oct 23
💰 Finance Interest Rates Federal Reserve Market Analysis
  1. The Fed's impact on interest rates may not be as significant as perceived, with most rate changes occurring outside of Fed meetings.
  2. Changes in long-term interest rates are likely not correlated with new information from Fed meetings.
  3. Interest rate changes during Fed meetings appear independent of changes outside of meetings, indicating that market expectations are already adjusted before meetings.