The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

The Sword of Damocles

The Dollar Endgame • 319 implied HN points • 30 Aug 23
💰 Finance Global Markets Economic Theory Central Banks Currency Markets Monetary Policy
  1. The global financial system heavily depends on the US dollar, causing a constant demand for dollars worldwide.
  2. Triffin's Dilemma and the Dollar Milkshake Theory highlight the systemic risks and implications of the US dollar's dominance.
  3. The Fed plays a critical role in stabilizing the global financial system by supplying dollars; any missteps could lead to widespread financial instability.

Links - 02/06/2024

Value Investing World • 157 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Value investing involves buying great businesses at average prices, not just buying any business at a low ratio.
  2. Not all businesses trading at low multiples are considered value stocks; some may be truly inferior.
  3. Consider exploring various valuable content shared by Joe Koster and other experts in the field.

Hotel REITs

Warden Capital • 275 implied HN points • 08 Nov 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Investing Economics Markets Business
  1. Hotel REITs in the public markets have high yields and are trading at 8-10+% cap rates, making them a potentially lucrative investment option.
  2. Compared to other real estate asset classes like multifamily and industrial, hotel REITs offer superior yields and lower capex burdens, making them a cost-effective choice for investors.
  3. The hotel industry has faced challenges post-COVID, especially in urban markets, but with the recovery of leisure, group, and business travel, there is significant potential for growth and investment opportunities.

CROSSPOST: VIKTOR SHVETZ: Why Investors Shouldn’t Worry Too Much about the AI Bubble

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 161 implied HN points • 11 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Policy Technological Impact Asset management
  1. Investors might overreact to the AI hype, but history shows that bubbles usually come with technological progress. It's important to invest wisely but not to fear investing in useful innovations.
  2. Every major technological revolution has been linked to speculative bubbles, leading to both chaos and creativity. After the chaos, societies often adjust and see growth and improvement.
  3. AI is set to change the job landscape significantly. While some jobs may disappear, others will emerge, and productivity is expected to increase, though not without initial challenges.
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[2025–2026] Week 11: John Train's The New Money Masters

Behavioral Value Investor • 29 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
💰 Finance Value investing Investment strategy Portfolio Management Equity Analysis Behavioral Finance Financial Education
  1. Investors must evolve their methods over time, moving beyond old bargain-only strategies to favor durable, high-quality businesses while still insisting on a clear margin of safety.
  2. Temperament matters: patience and the willingness to wait for the right opportunities are as important to long-term returns as intelligence, process, or experience.
  3. The seminar assigns reading The New Money Masters and practical work: map investors’ styles, pick your favorite and least favorite with reasons, create an AI prompt based on an investor, and share all answers in a single comment while engaging respectfully with others.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 405 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Update Monetary Policy Debt Management Investment Strategies
  1. The upcoming U.S. presidential inauguration and a new Treasury Secretary may lead to changes in the money market. This could create opportunities for profits.
  2. The debt ceiling issue is affecting liquidity and will lead to market volatility. When resolved, it will change the flow of money in the markets.
  3. Foreign investors are becoming more interested in U.S. Treasuries due to better returns. This could impact how these markets operate in the near future.

Chartbook 238: Making & remaking the most important market in the world. Or why everyone should read Menand and Younger on Treasuries.

Chartbook • 1673 implied HN points • 08 Sep 23
💰 Finance Market structure Financial history
  1. The US Treasury market liquidity is crucial for the global financial system.
  2. The issuance of public debt is intricately tied to the creation of credit and money in a public-private partnership.
  3. Changes in the Treasury market structure, from banks to capital markets to non-bank actors, have implications for systemic stability.

Economics Links

In My Tribe • 455 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Theory Regulation Labor Market Cryptocurrency Market Trends
  1. Academic economics has a culture that can feel snobby. Many economists avoid challenging well-known figures out of fear of seeming unimportant.
  2. The job market has changed a lot over the years, moving from agriculture to manufacturing, and now to service-based jobs. This shift reflects changes in demand and productivity.
  3. Cutting regulations can significantly lower prices, leading to increased real income for people. This could result in economic growth that exceeds what many economists expect.

Top Links 612 How global inflation came and went. The economic fallout from the coup in Korea and the revolution in Bangladesh & big trouble in Sturgis.

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Global Economy Inflation Economic Policy Market Trends
  1. Global inflation has seen significant changes, impacting economies worldwide.
  2. Political events, like coups and revolutions, can lead to serious economic fallout.
  3. Understanding these events helps us see how connected the world's economies really are.

Investing Update: Mag 7 Dethroned or Dormant?

Spilled Coffee • 16 implied HN points • 17 Jan 26
💰 Finance Markets Stocks Investing Macro Earnings Portfolio
  1. Markets pulled back slightly as rising yields and Fed Chair uncertainty outweighed strong chip earnings, but year-to-date returns remain positive and Bitcoin, gold, and small-caps were up.
  2. Breadth is improving — all 11 S&P sectors are back above their 200-day averages, more stocks are above both their 50- and 200-day lines, and the share of weak stocks is shrinking.
  3. Tech has been essentially flat for about four months, raising the question whether the Mag 7 mega-cap stocks are permanently dethroned or simply dormant as earnings and guidance season unfolds.

My Neighbor Pays $1,000 in Taxes on a $2M Home

Jay's Data Stream • 11 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
💰 Finance Real Estate Personal Finance Investing Tax policy Housing Market Wealth Inequality
  1. Property tax rules like Prop 13 (and the partial change under Prop 19) create perverse incentives that can keep homes empty and distort the housing market, because low assessed taxes make owners reluctant to rent or sell.
  2. Buying a home is highly timing-sensitive and can be very costly when plans change — mortgage interest, taxes, transaction fees, and the lost investment opportunity can make ownership much worse than renting and investing instead.
  3. San Francisco looks bullish over the long run because supply is effectively frozen by regulations while tech/AI-driven wealth is likely to boost demand, so buying only makes sense with a 10+ year horizon.

Data Update 1 for 2023: Setting the Table

Musings on Markets • 779 implied HN points • 07 Jan 23
💰 Finance Data Analysis Investment Strategies Corporate Finance Market Trends Valuation Techniques
  1. Having too much data can be overwhelming and lead to distractions. It's important to focus on the most relevant information when making decisions.
  2. Data should not be seen as the only answer; personal judgment and reasoning are essential in analysis. Relying solely on data can hinder good decision-making.
  3. Data can be biased and subjective, even though many think of it as purely objective. It's crucial to be mindful of how data is presented and used.

Inflation And The Moral Erosion of Society

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 46 implied HN points • 19 Nov 25
💰 Finance Economic Theory Inflation Monetary Policy Public Policy
  1. Inflation is often misunderstood as just rising prices, but it's really about the government increasing money supply. This change in meaning makes it hard for people to see who is really responsible for the problem.
  2. When money loses value due to inflation, it affects people's lives deeply. It rewards borrowing and spending over saving, changing how society thinks about money and effort.
  3. To fix the issues caused by inflation, we need to go back to honest money that retains its value. Sound money can help society reconnect with hard work and planning for the future.

There Are Three Ways to Get Rid of Inflation. One Is "Impossible" and One Will Destroy the Country.

Surviving Tomorrow • 314 implied HN points • 18 May 23
💰 Finance Inflation Taxation Wealth Distribution Monetary Policy Economic Theory
  1. Inflation impacts different groups differently: savers punished, poor robbed, debtors rewarded.
  2. Eradicating inflation can be done by destroying the working class, taxing the rich, or creating anti-inflation money.
  3. Anti-inflation money involves investing in new assets, taxing back excessive money, and destroying it for common well-being.

The Bonds And The Stock Market

Points And Figures • 586 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Policy Interest Rates Stock Analysis
  1. The stock market has experienced various crashes in the past, but today there are better systems in place to prevent a major crash like in 1987. It's still possible to see market dips, but the overall structure is stronger now.
  2. Interest rates on government bonds are rising, which could impact the stock market negatively if rates reach certain levels. Keeping an eye on these rates is important for understanding market trends.
  3. Government spending is a concern, and both political parties aren't talking about reducing it. If spending continues unchecked, it could lead to serious economic issues in the future.

What I read in September 2023

Asian Century Stocks • 314 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
💰 Finance Stock Analysis Market Trends Investment Strategies
  1. The author read 14 write-ups in September from sources like Value Investors Club and Substack.
  2. They believe JD.com and China Tower may be undervalued, while Ossia International and Ming Fai may have potential upside.
  3. There are concerns about Midea's exposure to the Chinese property market, but the company's strong market position and growth indicate potential resilience.

Ecoinometrics - Could one Bitcoin be worth $1m by June?

Ecoinometrics • 314 implied HN points • 20 Mar 23
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Investment Economics Market Analysis Financial trends
  1. Some believe one Bitcoin could reach $1 million by June, but it's quite unlikely.
  2. Historical data shows Bitcoin has seen high growth, but reaching $1 million in 90 days is a huge challenge.
  3. A scenario where hyperinflation devalues the US dollar significantly is a key factor in this extreme price prediction.

Overview of Portfolio Construction and Risk Management, Part 2

DeFi Education • 699 implied HN points • 03 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investing Risk management Portfolio Theory Behavioral Finance Market Trends
  1. Human emotions like greed and fear can affect investing decisions. People often buy high when they're greedy and ignore good opportunities when they're scared.
  2. Even experienced money managers can make mistakes by following trends instead of sticking to their strategies. They sometimes buy at the peak instead of the bottom.
  3. Understanding these emotional swings can help in better portfolio management. It's important to recognize how emotions can lead to poor financial choices.

How to Judge if a Stock is Overvalued or Undervalued

Shivansh • 79 implied HN points • 23 Apr 24
💰 Finance Stocks Valuation Investing
  1. Stock valuation involves analyzing metrics like Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, comparing with others in the sector to identify overvalued stocks.
  2. Price-to-Book Value ratio is crucial for asset-heavy sectors like Adani Ports to make informed investment decisions.
  3. Understanding stock valuation methods can help investors save and grow their money effectively.

What is worth holding on to?

Fund Marketer • 3 implied HN points • 26 Feb 26
💰 Finance Asset management Investing Wealth Management Banking M&A ESG
  1. Active asset managers are under heavy pressure from passive funds and ETFs, which is driving consolidation and buyouts. Cherry-picking a few old-economy winners doesn’t change the broader trend of active underperformance.
  2. Financial firms are repurposing legacy assets and structures—like art-backed lending and debt-for-nature swaps—to create new revenue streams and support future needs. These moves won’t solve big problems alone, but they are pragmatic ways to finance innovation and conservation.
  3. A long-running project about a Sputnik-era plan to teach advanced mathematics has been completed and will be released next summer. Finishing and sharing such work shows how historical ideas can be reexamined and made relevant today.

Top Links 573 US bank failures. Gas-powered trucks. The Suriname debt crisis & the underground struggle in Colombia.

Chartbook • 500 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Banking Debt Economics Investments Policy
  1. There have been 573 bank failures in the US, which is a significant number. This may affect the economy and people's trust in banking.
  2. Gas-powered trucks are still widely used, indicating ongoing reliance on fossil fuels. This might have implications for environmental discussions and policies.
  3. The Suriname debt crisis and struggles in Colombia show that economic challenges are not only local but also global. These situations need attention and understanding from a broader perspective.

The Nvidia economy and the benefits of toilet paper.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investment Strategies Economic Trends Market Analysis Business Models
  1. Nvidia is rising fast in the market and could soon be worth more than Apple. Experts believe its growth is different from the tech bubble of the past.
  2. During election years, the stock market often has ups and downs, but usually rallies in the second half. Historical trends show that certain sectors perform better depending on who wins the election.
  3. Investors should look for companies with strong 'moats' that protect them from risks. Essential products like toothpaste and toilet paper are always in demand, making companies like Procter & Gamble good choices.

The Bear Cave #257

The Bear Cave • 396 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Corporate News Regulatory issues Activism
  1. Activist reports are highlighting possible financial issues with several companies, suggesting they may not be as strong as they claim.
  2. Recent executive resignations at various companies indicate instability and potential challenges within their leadership.
  3. The U.S. Department of Transportation is taking action against Southwest Airlines for their ongoing delays, showing the importance of accountability in the travel industry.

Earnings: Hyperscalers, AMD, ALAB, ANET

Mule’s Musings • 122 implied HN points • 11 Aug 25
💰 Finance Investing Economics Market Trends Tech Stocks Financial Analysis
  1. Hyperscalers are large tech companies that significantly impact the market. They are key players in the tech industry.
  2. AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) is a prominent company in semiconductor technology. They create powerful processors and graphics cards.
  3. Companies like ALAB and ANET are also notable in the tech space, focusing on different innovations and solutions.

Fischer Black vs. Monetarism

In My Tribe • 455 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Economic Theory Inflation Market Dynamics Financial Systems
  1. Fischer Black believed that both money supply and price levels are based on collective beliefs rather than strict numbers. People accept money because they trust others will accept it too.
  2. Inflation and prices are influenced more by market behavior and expectations rather than solely by money supply. This means prices can change based on what people think will happen in the future.
  3. The relationship between money and prices might be less reliable than before. As people use less cash and more digital forms of payment, traditional ways to predict inflation might not work well anymore.

Trends in Buenos Aires Real Estate

BowTiedMara - Geoarbitrage & Mobility Assets • 157 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Investment Property Management Construction
  1. Average prices for apartments in Buenos Aires vary by neighborhood, with popular areas like Palermo and Recoleta having higher prices.
  2. Neighborhoods in the northern corridor of the city have average prices around $3,000/m2, while other areas like Villa Crespo offer good value below Palermo pricing.
  3. Investing in new developments in Buenos Aires' real estate market can be more attractive due to lower construction costs despite a devaluation in the currency.