The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Stock Talk - A Newsletter About Investing

Jon’s Newsletter • 99 implied HN points • 29 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Financial Analysis
  1. After a strong first quarter, stock market gains often slow down or even decline in the second quarter. History shows the market can be vulnerable after big early gains.
  2. Slow and steady rate cuts from the Federal Reserve can be good for stocks. A gradual approach usually leads to bigger gains compared to quick cuts.
  3. Asset-light businesses, like franchises or companies with good credit terms, can grow without needing heavy investments. These businesses can be valuable for long-term investors.

Top Links 605 The story of FRED. Africa's looming debts. The world of copper & art in airports.

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Debt Investments Market Trends Art market
  1. FRED is an important economic tool that helps track data over time, starting in the 1960s with economist Homer Jones. It shows how data can help understand the economy better.
  2. Africa is facing significant debt challenges, and awareness of these issues is crucial for global economic stability. It highlights the financial struggles many countries are experiencing.
  3. The connection between copper and art in airports showcases how different economic sectors can intersect. It's interesting to see how materials and art affect spaces we use every day.

Bitcoin Solves Triffin's Dilemma

The Dollar Endgame • 259 implied HN points • 12 Nov 23
💰 Finance Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Macroeconomics
  1. The Bretton Woods system established the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency in 1944, benefiting the U.S. significantly.
  2. Triffin's dilemma addressed the fatal flaw in the Bretton Woods system, highlighting the challenges of a central issuer currency in a global monetary system.
  3. Bitcoin offers a solution to Triffin's dilemma by being a neutral reserve currency, avoiding the issues associated with central issuer currencies and promoting balance in the global economy.
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Why do people invest in expensive stocks?

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 19 Feb 26
💰 Finance Behavioral Finance Investing Asset Pricing Equity Valuation
  1. Many investors treat very expensive stocks like lottery tickets, hoping for a rare big payoff instead of focusing on realistic expected returns.
  2. Surveys and analyst reports find the majority (about 60% overall and 81% of retail investors) hold high-valuation stocks because they expect high future returns, while far fewer cite superior fundamentals (~15%) or safer past performance (<10%).
  3. These beliefs contradict finance theory and empirical evidence, yet investors remain convinced and continue to hold expensive stocks despite knowing their high valuations.

What causes inflation? Economists Radhika Desai & Michael Hudson explain

Geopolitical Economy Report • 378 implied HN points • 27 Jan 23
💰 Finance Inflation Federal Reserve Monetary Policy De-dollarization
  1. Inflation is driven by a shift to financialized capitalism, where assets are inflated while wages and consumer spending are squeezed.
  2. Central banks like the Federal Reserve prioritize the interests of the financial sector over addressing inflation or promoting productive growth.
  3. The current inflationary environment is rooted in financial bubbles, debt creation, and the failure to address the structural imbalances in the economy.

Top Links 574 Gold stumbles. How Trump cost Boeing $3 billion. The UK's bitcoin haul. Beak capitalism.

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 28 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics Investments Market Trends Cryptocurrency Corporate News
  1. Gold prices are struggling and have not been performing well recently. This trend is something to watch in financial markets.
  2. Former President Trump had a significant impact on Boeing, costing the company around $3 billion. This shows how political decisions can affect big businesses.
  3. The UK has seen a notable increase in Bitcoin income, which highlights the growing interest in cryptocurrencies in the region.

Vibe Check: MSFT & META Earnings: LRCX, MXL, WOLF, ASML, CLS, STM, ALGM, INTC

Mule’s Musings • 366 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💰 Finance Earnings Reports Investment Trends Stock Analysis Tech industry
  1. Microsoft is seeing strong growth in its AI revenue, but its overall business is growing slowly. They have invested heavily in AI and plan to keep expanding their data center capacities.
  2. Meta is optimistic about the future of AI and has extended the lifespan of its servers. They expect to make significant advancements in AI coding and problem-solving capabilities in 2025.
  3. Both companies are focusing their spending on infrastructure, with Meta doubling down on AI and core business needs. They believe that investing in this area will give them a competitive edge.

Living Legends: Finance & Investing

Olshansky's Newsletter • 22 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
💰 Finance Investing Investment Strategies Hedge Funds Asset management
  1. A small group of investors created the major investing styles we use today—value, macro, quantitative, activist, and systematic risk approaches.
  2. Each legend contributed a distinct mental model or tool that changed how markets are understood: durable-business investing and capital allocation, reflexivity and macro bets, math- and data-driven trading, activist pressure tactics, and formal frameworks for debt cycles and risk.
  3. Their books, letters, trades, and firms turned bold ideas into standard practice, providing the foundational zero-to-one lessons that modern finance now refines and builds upon.

Will AI Prove Piketty Right?

Economic Forces • 18 implied HN points • 08 Jan 26
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Growth Theory Capital Markets Tax policy Income Inequality Technology impact
  1. Getting labor's income share down to near zero is a knife-edge that needs extreme assumptions: either machines must be perfect substitutes for all human tasks, or capital must forever earn returns above depreciation plus what savers require. Without those extreme conditions, capital's share can rise a lot but will still hit a finite steady state.
  2. Whether capital's share rises or goes to infinity depends on supply and demand for capital: easier substitution flattens demand and raises capital's share, but faster technological progress also increases obsolescence and depreciation, which raises the hurdle savers need and can stop unbounded accumulation. These opposing forces determine if capital simply grows a lot or truly outstrips labor forever.
  3. A global progressive tax on capital may backfire: if capital is mobile and supply is elastic, owners can avoid the tax and its burden falls on wages, shrinking output; even coordinated taxes can't force savers to invest if after-tax returns fall below their patience threshold.

Infographics: Centrally Cleared U.S. Treasury Market Flows

Concoda • 178 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Trading Investments Economy Monetary Policy
  1. The U.S. Treasury market uses a central counterparty to manage trades. This helps ensure that transactions are processed smoothly and securely.
  2. Understanding the flow of money in the U.S. Treasury market is important for seeing how the economy functions. It gives insights into larger financial trends.
  3. Infographics can help simplify complex information about the Treasury market, making it easier to understand for everyone. Visuals often make learning about finance more accessible.

The Future Monetary System (From: Regulators)

DeFi Education • 439 implied HN points • 30 Jun 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Payment Systems Cryptocurrency Banking Regulation
  1. The Federal Reserve's new service called FedNow will start on July 1st. It will allow people to send and receive money instantly, anytime, day or night.
  2. This real-time payment system is much faster than traditional banking, which can take days for transactions to clear.
  3. With FedNow, transferring money will take only seconds, making it easier for everyone to manage their finances.

Did Oracle Just Pop The AI Bubble?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 31 implied HN points • 11 Dec 25
💰 Finance Markets Stocks Earnings Technology Valuations Investing
  1. Oracle’s stock has plunged about 40% over the last three months, signaling a big shift in investor sentiment.
  2. A recent earnings miss acted like a warning shot, suggesting the company isn’t meeting high expectations tied to AI performance.
  3. Traders are watching Oracle closely today for signs that this could mark a broader cooling of the AI-driven market rally.

More is coming soon!

The Dollar Endgame • 299 implied HN points • 07 May 23
💰 Finance Fintech Financial system
  1. The author, Peruvian Bull, is a fintech analyst focusing on finance and monetary economics.
  2. The author invites readers to join their journey to explore the darker aspects of the financial system.
  3. The post hints at more content to come in the future.

Market Movers - 20 October 2023

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 319 implied HN points • 20 Oct 23
💰 Finance Stocks Earnings Investor Relations Acquisitions Logistics
  1. PepsiCo exceeded analyst estimates in Q3 earnings by focusing on consumer interaction and pricing for smaller packs.
  2. Adyen's Investor Relations Update hints at strong Q3 results and their launch of Tap to Pay for Australian retailers.
  3. Block, previously Square, made another costly acquisition with Hifi, a music-focused fintech startup, following previous less successful deals.

Stocks Surge as Investors Take Victory Lap Around a Sinkhole

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 42 implied HN points • 21 Nov 25
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Monetary Policy Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. The stock market is showing signs of a bear market rally rather than a strong recovery. Some quick rises in stocks do not fix deeper economic issues.
  2. Current economic problems like high auto loan delinquencies and softening profit margins are not going away. They're happening right now and need immediate attention.
  3. Lower interest rates may take a long time to affect the economy, and the financial challenges we're facing will not be resolved by optimistic headlines or temporary stock gains.

Top Links 568 Stock markets in the 2nd Trump Presidency. How emering markets emerged. Indian food inflation & the global wine glut.

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investments Inflation Economics Global Trade
  1. Stock markets might struggle to reach new highs during Trump's second term compared to his first term.
  2. Emerging markets have become more prominent in the global economy, showing their growth potential.
  3. Food inflation in India and oversupply in the wine market are significant trends affecting consumers today.

The Dark Art of Short Selling (+ how to find shorts)

DeFi Education • 619 implied HN points • 22 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investing Short selling Risk management Market Strategies
  1. Short selling lets you profit from a decrease in asset prices, but it comes with high risks. If prices rise instead of fall, you could lose a lot of money.
  2. You can short sell through different platforms and strategies, including centralized exchanges, which might be safer but also have their own risks. It's important to manage your risk and not invest more than you can afford to lose.
  3. Knowing how short selling works can help you make better decisions in the market, even if you don't plan to short yourself. It can guide you in recognizing when to hold or sell your investments.

Stop Weapons of Mass Deception

Diane Francis • 639 implied HN points • 09 Feb 23
💰 Finance Corruption Taxation Wealth Inequality Money Laundering Legislation
  1. Financial secrecy allows wealthy individuals and corporations to hide their money, making the rich richer and increasing inequality. This harms democracy and pushes resources away from public services.
  2. Countries and financial institutions often enable tax evasion and money laundering by providing loopholes and anonymity to the wealthy, which impacts economies everywhere.
  3. To fix these issues, reforms are needed to increase transparency, ban anonymous financial vehicles, and hold enablers accountable, especially in the growing realm of cryptocurrencies.

The Continental Bait-and-Switch

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Currency Banking Inflation Fiscal policy Economic History Public Finance
  1. Continentals were accepted at first because people believed they could be redeemed for gold or silver, so the paper acted like a claim to real money.
  2. But leaders kept printing Continentals, broke the redemption promise, and used price controls and legal tender laws to force acceptance, which caused severe inflation and effectively cheated people in a bait-and-switch.
  3. This episode shows paper money’s value often rests on expectations of specie redemption, not just on taxes or legal coercion, so a government declaration alone may not create lasting monetary value.

Value Investors: How To "Buy & Hold" Forever Despite ST Volatility

Value Investing Substack • 294 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investing Portfolio Management Value investing Market volatility Risk management
  1. Value investors can create a low-volatility portfolio by combining Factor Investing with Value Investing
  2. Implementing a diversified portfolio of 20 stocks with >1:3 risk:reward can provide a 15% CAGR while minimizing downside volatility
  3. Staying disciplined, identifying stocks with high risk:reward ratio, and staying in cash until finding suitable opportunities are key strategies for value investors

Ecoinometrics - Inverted yield curve and market corrections

Ecoinometrics • 294 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investment Bitcoin Market Analysis Recession
  1. Inverted yield curve is a consistent predictor of a recession in the financial markets.
  2. The depth of the inversion does not necessarily indicate the severity of the stock market correction.
  3. For risk assets like the stock market and Bitcoin, the economy's damage during a recession affects them more than the inversion of the yield curve.

Coking Coal: Its Over

Syncretica • 294 implied HN points • 14 May 23
💰 Finance Commodities Markets Investing Energy
  1. Predicted drop in coking coal prices due to Mongolia's coal imports displacing seaborne market imports.
  2. Issues with volume response from Australian, Canadian, and US coal producers to record high prices.
  3. Significant increase in Mongolian coking coal exports impacting market prices negatively.

Once in a Lifetime Opportunity in German Residential Real Estate Stocks

Modern Value Investing • 294 implied HN points • 21 Apr 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Investing Stocks Market Analysis Interest Rates
  1. German residential real estate stocks offer 200% upside based on their NAV
  2. Potential for German residential real estate stocks to re-establish dividends at 3-4%, translating to a 200% near term upside
  3. Investing in German residential real estate offers a long-term opportunity with potential returns of 5-6x over 10 years

I'll Be Bullish On Stocks Again...Someday

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 46 implied HN points • 14 Nov 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Indicators Financial Analysis Stock Market
  1. The stock market is currently overvalued, and many investors ignore real issues like high P/E ratios. It's essential to be cautious and think critically about investments.
  2. Gold and silver assets are rising, which suggests bigger economic problems might be happening. There's a chance the U.S. economy is shifting in a way that could affect markets severely.
  3. While there may be opportunities in specific stocks, the overall market needs to become cheaper before it's worth being bullish again. Patience and careful analysis are key.

What is a dividend?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 279 implied HN points • 20 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing Dividends Returns Stock Market
  1. Dividends are payments companies make to shareholders from their profits. If you own shares in a company that pays dividends, you can earn money regularly just for holding those shares.
  2. Companies pay dividends for various reasons, such as rewarding shareholders, attracting long-term investors, and boosting their stock value. A steady dividend can show that a company is financially healthy.
  3. Investing in dividends can provide income, but the returns can be limited unless you own a lot of stock. It's important to choose companies wisely and consider whether you prioritizing dividends or stock performance.

Problems at an ARK Invest Favorite

The Bear Cave • 1026 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Analysis Market
  1. The Bear Cave raises concerns about an ARK Invest favorite, suggesting it may not live up to the hype and bold promises of innovation.
  2. The company in question has been spending on questionable celebrity partnerships, leading to doubts about its true potential.
  3. Despite predictions of high growth, The Bear Cave predicts a potential crash for this company, signaling a caution for investors.

2024 Annual Letter: Generational Company, Generational Wealth

Interconnected • 354 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investment Wealth Economics Market Trends Portfolio Management
  1. Investing in technology, especially in areas like AI and cloud infrastructure, can be a promising way to build wealth over time. It's important to focus on companies with strong fundamentals that are expected to grow for many years.
  2. Tariffs and geopolitical events can greatly impact investment strategies, so it's crucial to seek out portfolio positions that are less sensitive to such changes. This helps in managing risks and stabilizing returns.
  3. Building generational wealth means finding robust companies that will still thrive in the future. Personal experiences can shape how we view long-term investments and what makes a company worth investing in.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 02 Jan 26
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Inflation Affordability Macroeconomics
  1. Inflation-adjusted national house prices are about 2.7% below their recent 2022 peak, and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 is roughly 3.0% below.
  2. Nominal house prices are very close to record highs—about 0.3% under the February 2025 peak—and in real terms national prices remain about 9.7% above the 2006 bubble peak.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is down about 9.9% from its 2022 peak, and rising inventory plus higher inflation have pressured real prices, which fell roughly 2% in 2025.