The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

The media is lying about Stock Market Volatility [Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 79 implied HN points • 12 Aug 22
💰 Finance Stock Market Volatility Investors Financial Analysis
  1. Stock market volatility is not solely caused by 'Robinhood investors'; experts' claims are not well-supported by research and basic math
  2. While individual firms have seen increased volatility, overall market volatility has remained relatively consistent, highlighting the importance of looking beyond surface-level narratives
  3. Opportunity cost plays a significant role in firm-level volatility, with investors impacting individual stocks based on trends, emotions, and investment decisions, even if market-wide volatility does not reflect this

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Economics Investment Market Trends
  1. In November, both single-family and multi-family serious delinquency rates went up. This means more people are having trouble paying their housing bills.
  2. Freddie Mac reported that the single-family serious delinquency rate increased slightly to 0.56%. Even though it rose, it's still lower than pre-pandemic levels.
  3. The overall trend shows that while delinquency rates are increasing, they are still relatively low compared to before the pandemic hit.

The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Investment Mortgage Monetary Policy Market Trends
  1. The neutral rate, which helps determine monetary policy, has increased back to levels seen before the financial crisis. This means current monetary policy might not be restricting the economy as much as previously thought.
  2. Some economists believe that the actual neutral rate is higher than expected, which could indicate that interest rates may not be as high as people fear.
  3. Fed Chair Powell agreed that the neutral rate has risen significantly since before the pandemic, suggesting a change in how we should view economic policy now.
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Mara deleverages

Miner Weekly • 59 implied HN points • 07 Jan 23
💰 Finance Investment Corporate Regulation Debt Mining
  1. Marathon Digital adhered to its hodl strategy despite market turbulence in 2022, closing with 12,232 BTC and increased liquidity.
  2. Mara reduced revolving credit and paid off debts in December with capital injection, facing volatile stock prices.
  3. 36% of Mara's bitcoin holdings were restricted as of Dec. 31, secured against loans, with a safety net against a decrease in Bitcoin value.

Are Economic Worries Overblown?

Spilled Coffee • 36 implied HN points • 05 Mar 25
💰 Finance Economics Investing Market Trends Home Sales Policy Impact
  1. The U.S. stock market is down, with the S&P 500 dropping 6% this year due to economic worries. Many people are feeling uncertain about the economy right now.
  2. Pending home sales in the U.S. have hit an all-time low, even worse than during the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19. This is a significant sign of trouble in the housing market.
  3. There is a lot of volatility in the financial markets due to government changes and spending cuts, creating questions about whether current market conditions are a good buying opportunity.

Quant Letter: June 2025, Week-1

The Parlour • 21 implied HN points • 04 Jun 25
💰 Finance Quantitative Investing Machine Learning Market Analysis Economic Research
  1. New methods are being developed to test asset pricing anomalies, showing that different paths on the same dataset can lead to similar outcomes. This means we need to be cautious about our assumptions in finance.
  2. Deep reinforcement learning is being used to improve risk management in life insurance. This method helps in making better decisions about profits and losses related to different risk factors.
  3. Large language models struggle with accuracy in specialized fields due to lack of specific training data. To improve their performance, fine-tuning techniques are essential.

Accidentally testing NGDP level targeting

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Fiscal policy
  1. Accidentally testing market monetarism, particularly nominal GDP targeting, yielded successful results during economic shocks.
  2. Nominal GDP targeting can help stabilize the business cycle by allowing for counter-cyclical inflation and smoothing disruptions in nominal incomes.
  3. Adopting nominal GDP level targeting could lead to improved productivity and reduced reliance on interest rates in monetary policy discussions.

House hacking a $675k duplex in Dallas

The Leonard Letter • 19 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Investment Property Management
  1. Analyzing a real estate deal requires considering various financial aspects like mortgage, expenses, and rental income
  2. It's crucial to calculate potential expenses for maintenance, repairs, and vacancies to assess the overall profitability
  3. Before investing in a property, evaluate if the financial investment aligns with the income generated to avoid significant losses

Trading The Shit Show: February 2025 Market Update

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 40 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Personal Finance Economic Trends Mental health
  1. The writer has been sober for 72 days, which has brought them clarity and peace. They feel that stepping back from gambling and trading has helped them focus better on their life.
  2. They are optimistic about their market predictions, having outperformed the S&P by 9% since the beginning of the year. A clear mind seems to be helping their financial outlook.
  3. New features for paid subscribers have been introduced, allowing for more direct discussions. This change aims to create a better connection with their readers.

Investing Update: Hedge Fund Buys & Holdings

Spilled Coffee • 36 implied HN points • 01 Mar 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Economic Policy Hedge Funds
  1. The stock market has seen a decline, with major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping significantly this week. This means investors have lost some of their gains for the year.
  2. Many big-name stocks have dropped more than 20% from their highs, indicating a possible bear market. This trend affects nearly a third of S&P 500 stocks.
  3. Despite recent volatility, it's common after elections, and the overall bull market isn't in danger. Companies are still reporting strong earnings, suggesting a slight pullback is normal.

6 things to know about the stock market.

Jon’s Newsletter • 99 implied HN points • 05 Oct 22
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Interest Rates Economic Indicators
  1. Bear markets can last a long time, often around 19 months, and stocks need to regain previous highs to be considered out of a bear market.
  2. Stocks usually don't hit their lowest point until interest rates come down, which is expected around April 2023.
  3. It's tricky to predict the right time to buy or sell stocks; missing key market days can hurt your long-term returns, historically reducing gains significantly.

Your Time Horizon

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 18 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Wealth Management Market Trends Personal Finance Risk Assessment
  1. Everyone has a different time horizon for their investments, which affects their financial decisions. For example, a young person saving for retirement will think long-term differently than someone close to retirement.
  2. Your time horizon influences your risk tolerance and how you should allocate your assets. It's important to know when you will need the money before making investment choices.
  3. When discussing investments with others, keep in mind that their time horizon may differ from yours. This can change how they view investment advice and decisions.

MAPS: Half-Baked Governance

Nongaap Investing • 47 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Corporate Governance Stock Market Investment Strategies Mergers & Acquisitions
  1. WM Technology's stock price is reacting to a non-binding buyout proposal. The offer of $1.70 per share seems low compared to the company's potential growth targets.
  2. The recent appointment of a new CEO and his equity compensation raises red flags about the timing and motivation behind the proposal. There are concerns about whether the company is acting in the best interests of all shareholders.
  3. The governance practices at WM Technology may involve manipulation, especially regarding stock compensation and the timing of news releases. This creates distrust among investors about the sincerity of the management's intentions.

It Only Takes One Data Point to Disprove an Investment Thesis

The Data Score • 19 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
💰 Finance Financial Markets Data Analysis Investment Strategies
  1. It only takes one data point to disprove an investment thesis by testing for the counterfactual, which allows identifying data points that go against the thesis.
  2. A question-driven approach to investing focuses on formulating the right questions to deeply understand the investment landscape, prioritizing curiosity and critical thinking.
  3. Designing an investment thesis involves setting measurable outcomes, defining timeframes, identifying dependencies, establishing checkpoints, and being aware of the current valuation. It's crucial to recognize what's in the valuation already and how your views differ.

On the Origin of Wealth

Living Fossils • 21 implied HN points • 28 May 25
💰 Finance Economics Wealth Stock Market Beliefs Financial Crisis
  1. Wealth isn't just about physical things; it's also about people's beliefs. If people lose faith in the future, the value of things can disappear even if the items are still there.
  2. Changes in beliefs can lead to big shifts in wealth quickly. For example, if everyone thinks a company's profits will fall, its stock price can drop fast.
  3. Information spreads quickly today, which can impact beliefs and values even more rapidly. This can make economies volatile, as people's perceptions change almost overnight.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Trends Real Estate Sales Data Inventory
  1. Home sales have been increasing for three months in a row compared to last year, which is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. Inventory of homes for sale is up significantly, especially in southern states like Florida and Texas, meaning more choices for buyers.
  3. New listings are still low compared to past years, but they have increased recently, indicating some recovery in the market.

Lessons for today’s investors from the UK in the 1970s

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 10 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Fiscal policy Inflation Macroeconomics Investment strategy Financial history
  1. Cost-push shocks like big commodity price jumps can become long-lasting inflation when governments boost wages and spending while central banks keep rates too low.
  2. Large fiscal deficits or tax cuts can create a short-term growth 'sugar rush' but risk reigniting inflation later if monetary policy is pressured to stay easy.
  3. Fiscal and monetary coordination is crucial: when fiscal policy is expansionary the central bank must act to anchor inflation expectations or inflation will remain elevated.

A pullback in the S&P 500 has likely not finished yet

Global Markets Investor • 19 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
💰 Finance Stock Markets Investing Economy Market Analysis
  1. The S&P 500 pullback is likely not over yet, with factors like Apple stock's decline and bond yields indicating further decreases.
  2. US bond yields, the US dollar, and the Fear & Greed index suggest that the S&P 500 decline may continue.
  3. Indicators like the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages and the VIX levels point towards a possible S&P 500 decline still in progress.

How TikTok breaks economics [Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 59 implied HN points • 29 Oct 22
💰 Finance Economics Social media Government Influence Data Analysis Investment Analysis
  1. TikTok struggles with profitability due to competition, lack of valuable data, and the expensive analysis of user behavior.
  2. The CCP's involvement in ByteDance enables them to fund TikTok despite losses for geopolitical influence, impacting the content promoted and the platform's sustainability.
  3. Banning TikTok may not address the root issues; education on health, mental wellness, skepticism, and maintaining real social connections are vital for healthier social media engagement.

Zomato fails to deliver [Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 79 implied HN points • 29 Jul 22
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Business Strategies Risk management Entrepreneurship
  1. Food delivery business is unprofitable globally despite high fees; Zomato suffered major losses without solid plans.
  2. Zomato's acquisition of Blinkit with a massive cash burn was not beneficial due to lack of established cash flows.
  3. Investors should be cautious of hype; Zomato's crash led to retail investors facing significant losses.

Looking at the stock market in terms of money flows

America in Crisis • 59 implied HN points • 14 Feb 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Technical Analysis
  1. In the stock market, changes in market cap can be disproportionate to the actual money traded, leading to wealth creation or destruction.
  2. Over time, market changes can cancel each other out, and short-term price fluctuations in a single stock might not reflect actual money flows.
  3. Using money flow analysis can provide insights into stock market valuation and understanding trends over longer periods, accounting for factors like stock buybacks and QE.

The controversial ethics of Stock Buybacks [Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 39 implied HN points • 11 Feb 23
💰 Finance Stock Buybacks Investing Corporate Governance Ethics Economics
  1. Stock buybacks involve a company purchasing its own shares from the market, which can boost stock prices and reduce the number of shares in circulation.
  2. Stock buybacks are typically done by older, established companies with market dominance, in order to reward investors when they don't have resources for other investments.
  3. Controversies around stock buybacks arise from executives benefiting significantly from buybacks through stock options, while companies may conduct layoffs and seek government bailouts.

December 2024 Inflation

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Investments Markets Inflation Housing
  1. December 2024 saw important updates about inflation. This is something people need to keep an eye on for their finances.
  2. There's a focus on housing data, which is crucial as it can greatly affect the economy and people's living situations.
  3. Subscribing to this housing tracker gives access to ongoing insights. This can help people stay informed about market changes.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Indicators Market Analysis Supply & Demand
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same compared to last year. Recently, there's been a slight downward trend, but rents are still high compared to earlier years.
  2. The number of available rental units is increasing, leading to more options for renters. This rise in supply is helping to keep rents stable and pressures on affordability.
  3. Single-family rent growth is at its lowest in over 14 years. Even though rent increases are slowing, demand for rentals is expected to remain strong due to job and wage growth.

Investing Update: Is The Rally Fading?

Spilled Coffee • 48 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Reports Stock Analysis Inflation
  1. The Dow has dropped for seven straight days, which is the longest losing streak since 2020. This downward trend is concerning, especially for December, which is usually a strong month for stocks.
  2. Inflation is still on the rise, moving from 2.60% to 2.75%. Although this is in line with expectations, it indicates that the economy hasn't fully stabilized yet.
  3. Many believe the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25% soon. This move is anticipated as a way to address the ongoing inflation issues and support the market.