The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.0% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Inflation Market Trends Economic Indicators Investment strategy
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently about 2% lower than their peak in 2022. This means people may find better deals on homes than before.
  2. The price-to-rent ratio is down by 9.3% since the peak in 2022. It suggests that renting may be more cost-effective compared to buying right now.
  3. Historically, house prices tend to increase over time, but real prices being above past bubbles shows that it's still a complicated market for buyers.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 16 Jun 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Sales Data Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. Home sales are down across many markets, with a 4.3% decrease year-over-year in May compared to last year.
  2. New listings are slowly increasing, up by 6.3% compared to last May, but still lag behind the numbers from 2019.
  3. Inventory levels are rising significantly, with a 29% increase year-over-year, indicating a changing market dynamic.

Berkshire's Next Buy?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 31 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investment Stock Market Personal Finance Wealth Management Economic Trends
  1. The author is just guessing which company Berkshire might buy next. It's not a solid prediction, but more of a fun exercise in thinking like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.
  2. Berkshire Hathaway has a lot of cash available, which gives them opportunities to make significant investments.
  3. This post is intended for paid subscribers, suggesting that there might be more detailed insights available to them.
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Why Wages Slowed More In Japan Than Elsewhere

Japan Economy Watch • 159 implied HN points • 13 Dec 21
💰 Finance Wages Economic Theory Labor Market Income Wealth
  1. Wages in Japan have not just slowed down but actually fallen, unlike in other rich countries where wages have been suppressed.
  2. The widespread slump in wage growth goes against economic theory, signaling a shift in how consumer demand and wages have traditionally grown alongside output.
  3. One main reason for Japan's wage decline is the rise of poorly paid non-regular workers, showcasing the impact of political factors on wage disparities.

Feelin’ Fine

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 20 Feb 23
💰 Finance Economy Inflation Markets Consumers
  1. The economy seems fine despite initial concerns of it being worse.
  2. Consumers are still spending, and capital markets are beginning to overlook inflation.
  3. There are doubts about the Fed tightening aggressively without causing a recession, but signs are not showing any current recession threats.

Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Foreclosures Home Equity Delinquencies
  1. We won't see a big increase in foreclosures like before. Most homeowners have good equity and stable mortgages, which helps them avoid financial struggles.
  2. The number of properties owned by lenders remains low, indicating that fewer people are losing their homes. This is a good sign compared to past economic downturns.
  3. Delinquency rates are decreasing, and most homeowners are able to keep up with payments. Even those in trouble can often find solutions to stay in their homes.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.3% year-over-year in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 29 Jul 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Real Estate Data Analysis Economic Indicators Investments
  1. In May, the national house prices increased by 2.3% compared to last year. This shows the market is still growing, but the growth is slowing down.
  2. The数据显示，房价在5月出现了连续三个月的月度下降. This means the prices are going down a bit after rising for a while.
  3. Some cities are seeing bigger drops, like San Francisco, where prices fell 8.2%. This suggests that not all areas are doing well in the housing market.

The Adani Group vs Hindenburg Research[Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 39 implied HN points • 04 Feb 23
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Social media influence Personal Finance
  1. Tech finance is currently volatile with companies facing investigations, layoffs, policy changes, and financial struggles.
  2. Hindenburg Research published a critical report on Adani Group, accusing them of a massive fraud scheme, sparking a heated discussion.
  3. The situation highlights the importance of critical analysis, especially on social media, and serves as a reminder to stay vigilant about personal finances and job security.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Market Trends Home Sales Inventory Levels
  1. New listings of homes were up by about 5% compared to last year, but they are still much lower than normal levels seen before the pandemic.
  2. The drop in mortgage rates starting in mid-August encouraged more homeowners to list their homes for sale, which is expected to continue even in the colder months.
  3. Weather events like Hurricane Milton affected home listings and sales in certain areas, particularly in Florida, showing that local conditions can impact the overall housing market.

ANNOUNCEMENT: The ValuationBot Research Desk is live

Valuabl • 1 implied HN point • 19 Jan 26
💰 Finance Investing Equity Research Valuation Fintech Asset management
  1. A new service works like a 24/7 personal equity research team that automatically finds and validates investment ideas.
  2. It delivers a steady daily stream of ideas from liquid, investable companies and focuses only on the markets you actually invest in.
  3. You get full access to every report, valuation model, and Excel export so you can dig into the analysis and make clearer investment decisions.

A Year in Review

The Last Bear Standing • 45 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Debt Instruments
  1. 2024 showed a strong bull market, with big tech and AI leading the way while smaller companies struggled early on.
  2. Mid-year, signs of inflation and unemployment triggered some market concerns but were quickly eased by positive economic data and rate cuts.
  3. In general, equities did well this year, while bonds had a tougher time, especially U.S. Treasuries, which struggled with rising yields.

MMTers Love When Governments Burn Money

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 29 Jul 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Economic History Taxation Inflation
  1. Historically, some governments have burned money they received in taxes instead of spending it. This shows a different approach to managing currency and taxes.
  2. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) suggests that the way governments handle money matters differently than traditional views, claiming that taxes serve to create demand for fiat currencies.
  3. However, there are criticisms of MMT, particularly regarding its historical accuracy about how money is created and the role of taxes, suggesting that it may misinterpret past events.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing Data
  1. Existing home sales in May are estimated to be around 4.03 million, a slight increase from April but a small drop from last year. It's important to watch how these numbers change over time.
  2. The median price for single-family homes in May went up by only 1% compared to last year. Prices varied by region, with some areas seeing slight increases or decreases.
  3. The National Association of Realtors will release official sales data soon, which will give a clearer picture of the housing market.

Shen Jianguang on Five Major Misunderstandings of China’s Fiscal Stimulus Package

Pekingnology • 52 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💰 Finance Fiscal policy Debt Management Market Analysis Investment Strategies
  1. The fiscal stimulus package in China is larger than it seems. It includes various measures that could lead to significant economic support, potentially amounting to 20% of the GDP.
  2. Debt replacement efforts will not only improve local government finances but also allow for more government spending. This shift can help stimulate the economy by boosting aggregate demand.
  3. The package aims to help local governments, which can indirectly benefit businesses and households too. Increased spending can stimulate consumption and support recovery in multiple sectors.

The Capitalist Crisis

America in Crisis • 59 implied HN points • 31 Jan 23
💰 Finance Economy Inequality Financialization Stock Market Economic Policy
  1. The capitalist crisis is linked to a drop in capital productivity, which can indicate an unhealthy capitalist system due to factors like inequality affecting demand and economic output.
  2. High levels of inequality can lead to a shortage of demand, causing a decline in capital productivity and contributing to a capitalist crisis.
  3. Financialization of the economy and the shift from stakeholder capitalism to shareholder primacy culture can impact business investment decisions, distribution of profits, and even wage disparities in the financial sector.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Inflation Market Trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently 1.1% lower than their peak in 2022. This shows that even when prices rise, the increase may not match inflation.
  2. The price-to-rent index is also lower than its 2022 peak by 7.8%. This means it might be cheaper to rent compared to buying right now.
  3. National house prices are historically high, being 11.6% above the previous housing bubble peak. However, price growth may slow down in the near future.

The thing about stocks and interest rates…

Jon’s Newsletter • 59 implied HN points • 06 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Interest Rates Economic Indicators Corporate Earnings
  1. Interest rates are a big deal for the stock market, and higher rates can make investors nervous about how companies will perform. Stock prices might drop if rates keep rising.
  2. Although stocks have bounced back from lows, past market losses have affected confidence. Some experts think the economy is in decent shape, which could help weather rate increases.
  3. Bear markets usually last a while after the last rate hike, suggesting tough times ahead. But this bear market started before the first rate hike, which is something to consider for those hoping for a quicker recovery.

Another Follow-Up Against Agglomeration

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economics Housing Income Construction Mortgage
  1. The mortgage crackdown post-2008 led to a housing shortage, impacting construction of single-family homes in different cities.
  2. There is a correlation between the drop in construction activity after 2008 and metro area incomes, where lower income areas experienced a greater decline.
  3. Trends suggest housing constraints may lead to higher incomes, impacting new single-family home construction and mortgage lending standards across different cities.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgage Rates Investment Trends Economic Analysis
  1. The housing market shows an increase in home inventory, but sales are not growing much compared to last year. This can put pressure on home prices.
  2. House prices have recently increased year-over-year, but there is a decrease month-over-month for the first time since early 2023.
  3. There are different trends in housing across regions, which means some areas may experience changes in market conditions differently than others.

More color on the inevitable rent boom of the 2010s.

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Home Prices Rent Inflation
  1. The clampdown on mortgage lending in 2008 led to unprecedented rent inflation, reinforcing the relationship between home prices, rent ratios, and access to credit.
  2. The natural experiment since 2008 confirmed that cutting off mortgage access lowered price/rent ratios substantially, leading to collapse in construction and significant rent increases. This situation may have reached a point where new homes could be constructed again on a larger scale.
  3. A regressive rise in home prices occurred post-2008 due to a credit shock affecting existing home values and necessitating a rise in land rents to induce new construction. This situation highlights the impact of housing shortages on rent inflation and home values.

When Europe sneezes, Asia catches a cold

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 22 Jan 26
💰 Finance Sovereign debt Market Liquidity Asset allocation International Markets
  1. When Europe suffers a debt shock, international bond funds often sell assets abroad, so Asian bond markets get hit even if their fundamentals are fine.
  2. Fund managers sell Asian bonds much more aggressively than European peripheral bonds—Asian holdings fell about three times as much after Eurozone credit shocks.
  3. Liquid sovereign bonds are sold first, causing sovereign holdings to drop quickly and corporate holdings to fall later, leaving Asian bond portfolio weights roughly one percentage point lower after six months.

"Failed To Gain Traction": CBDC Lessons From The Caribbean

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 25 Jul 25
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Financial Policy Monetary Systems Digital Currency Central Banks
  1. Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in Jamaica and The Bahamas have not become popular with people or businesses. They mostly function as tools for the government to distribute money during giveaways.
  2. In Jamaica, using the CBDC requires a bank account, which makes it harder for many people to access. The app has limited use, as it often requires converting CBDC back to regular cash for payments.
  3. Both countries have seen more activity in CBDC use when government payments are involved, showing that people may not want to use these currencies on their own. For a CBDC to succeed, it needs to bring real value to users.

The Boom Bust Cycle and how it affects tech[Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 59 implied HN points • 08 Oct 22
💰 Finance Economic Cycles Investing Tech industry Market Impact Risk management
  1. The economy goes through cycles of growth (boom) and contraction (bust), influenced by optimism and greed.
  2. Tech industry is more vulnerable to boom-bust cycles due to its rapid pace, scalability, and complexity, making it hard to predict and invest in.
  3. To survive economic fluctuations, it's important to build resilience by staying abreast of skills, having emergency funds, and not panicking.

Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Prices
  1. Housing inventory dropped a lot during the pandemic, hitting record lows. Even now, inventory is still not back to pre-pandemic levels.
  2. In 2024, there was a significant increase in housing inventory, which is a positive sign for the market. This increase could indicate stability in home prices as more homes become available.
  3. Monitoring housing inventory trends has been important in the past for predicting when home prices will rise or fall, making it a key factor to watch moving into 2025.

Big insurer Cigna took in $44 billion in the first 3 months of 2022. 75% came from its drug business.

HEALTH CARE un-covered • 139 implied HN points • 06 May 22
💰 Finance Health Insurance Corporate Earnings Pharmacy Benefits Profit Margins Market Trends
  1. Cigna's huge revenue of $44 billion in just three months shows they are making a lot of money, mainly from their drug business. This means health insurers can earn a lot just from selling medications.
  2. Cigna's profits rose by 12% compared to last year, and they expect even more profits moving forward. This makes investors happy and boosts the company's stock value.
  3. Many Cigna customers face high deductibles and out-of-pocket costs, making it hard for them to afford care. This highlights a problem in the healthcare system where profits might come at the expense of customers' financial wellbeing.

California Home Sales Down Slightly YoY in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Home Sales Economics Investment
  1. California home sales slightly decreased in June compared to last year. Even though there was a small rebound from previous months, the overall sales were still down.
  2. The median home price in California fell to $899,560, dropping below $900,000 for the first time in three months. This decline is affected by market uncertainty and high mortgage rates.
  3. Inventory levels saw significant growth, with total active listings rising over 40% year-over-year. However, new listings also declined, which might balance supply and demand in the future.

#28 Episode - Everyone in VC is an Accredited Investor

Law of VC • 179 implied HN points • 12 Jun 23
💰 Finance Venture Capital Regulations Investing Legislation Crowdfunding
  1. A proposed law aims to create an exam for non-accredited investors to become accredited, but it may not change much due to fund limits and regulations
  2. Increasing the number of LPs allowed per fund, opening up equity crowdfunding to funds, and easing restrictions on qualifying investments in VC funds are recommendations to address current limitations
  3. The impact of allowing non-accredited investors into venture funds may not change significantly without further regulatory adjustments

Is Someone Attacking the Comex? January Sees $5.2B in Gold Deliveries

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 36 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Analysis Economic Forecast
  1. January saw a huge amount of gold delivered at $5.2B, which is unusual for a minor month like this.
  2. There's been a consistent trend of new contracts being opened and settled for delivery instead of the usual early demand drops.
  3. The Comex has restocked its gold inventory significantly, which raises questions about future deliveries and potential market impacts.

Lessons from the Crypto Bloodbath[Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 79 implied HN points • 25 Jun 22
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Market Analysis Financial Education Investment Strategies Regulation
  1. First principles analysis of information is crucial to avoid being manipulated on social media
  2. Crypto crashes are often fueled by greed, FOMO, lack of regulations, and vulnerability to malicious actors
  3. Cryptocurrency market crashes are not the same as stock market sales, as many crypto projects lack profitability plans and are based on speculative principles

Tower of Basel

Net Interest • 13 implied HN points • 25 Jul 25
💰 Finance Banking Regulation Economics Investing International
  1. Bank regulations have become much longer and more complex over the years, starting from 30 pages in 1988 to over 600 pages now. This shows how regulations keep evolving but may not be improving in effectiveness.
  2. The conversation at the recent regulatory conference included light-hearted moments, like a CEO joking about the excessive bureaucracy in regulations, highlighting a frustration many have.
  3. There was also a discussion about how future jobs might seem trivial to us today, suggesting that work and societal roles are always changing, but some fundamental aspects of life endure.

January 2024 Residential Construction and New Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Home Prices Construction Cost Analysis
  1. The divergence between the average price of new homes and existing homes signals obstructed supply in the housing market.
  2. Changes in mortgage rates and market conditions can influence the size and types of new homes being built and sold.
  3. Reforms allowing for more new homes to be built could lower costs and reduce the price of existing homes.