The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

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Meta & Amazon Earnings Reviews

Stock Market Nerd • 884 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Market Analysis Financial Performance
  1. Meta Platforms (META) had strong earnings, beating estimates in demand, margins, guidance, and financials.
  2. Amazon (AMZN) also had a successful quarter, exceeding revenue and margin expectations, especially in AWS growth and advertising.
  3. Both companies showcased solid performance, indicating positive trends for their business strategies and financial outlook.

“We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Part 4

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 29 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate Housing Markets Asset Valuation Urban Economics Wealth Inequality
  1. Low-tier home prices have risen much faster than high-tier prices, so being poor and housed has become significantly more expensive and the gains in real estate wealth are a regressive transfer to owners of scarce housing.
  2. Most of the aggregate rise in home values comes from an extra, supply-driven premium that filters across markets, meaning inadequate housing supply—especially in upward-filtering cities—has been the primary driver, not agglomeration or just higher incomes.
  3. Common price measures and policy responses obscured the real problem: indexes of existing homes overstate scarcity effects and post-boom credit tightening lowered prices temporarily without fixing undersupply, leaving families paying higher rents, staying put longer, and facing worse housing outcomes.

The Bear Cave #286

The Bear Cave • 653 implied HN points • 10 Aug 25
đź’° Finance Stock Market Investment Corporate Finance Short selling Research Analysis
  1. Recent reports have raised serious concerns about companies like Marex Group and Collective Mining, suggesting they might be involved in fraud or mismanagement.
  2. A number of high-level executives, including CFOs, have recently resigned from several companies, which could indicate instability or deeper issues within those organizations.
  3. There is increasing scrutiny on U.S.-listed Chinese companies for potential fraud, and a new site has been launched to expose these stock promotion schemes.
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The Fed is only looking to past inflation, and that's a problem.

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) • 805 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Economy Federal Reserve Data-driven
  1. The Fed is focusing only on past inflation, and this approach may lead to problems with monetary policy decisions.
  2. Recent data shows a rapid decrease in inflation over the past six months, suggesting a return towards the 2% target.
  3. Despite strong economic growth and high interest rates, the Fed continues to rely heavily on backward-looking inflation data for its decision-making.

Interest Rate Risks are Collapsing Banks

The Informationist • 1650 implied HN points • 30 Apr 23
đź’° Finance Banking Interest Rates Risk management Financial Crisis Investments
  1. Interest rate risks can lead to bank collapses due to mismanagement and lack of oversight
  2. Different types of interest rate risks affect banks' financial positions, such as repricing risk and basis risk
  3. It is important for individuals to be cautious with their bank deposits and consider diversifying investments based on personal risk tolerance and long-term goals

❄️ 💰 15,9 % : taux d'épargne des Français. Et vous ?

Snowball • 1650 implied HN points • 01 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Savings Budgeting Investing Personal Finance Money Management
  1. The savings rate of French citizens is 15.9%, consider your own savings.
  2. Understanding the basics of saving, the importance of putting savings to work in your budget, and determining the ideal amount to save.
  3. Tips for successful saving: set annual goals, make saving a habit, establish rules, track your savings, and create a balanced situation.

Market Misreads Services Inflation And the BOJ

Japan Economy Watch • 1018 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Market Analysis Inflation Central Banks Economic data Monetary Policy
  1. Market players and forecasters may be misreading the intentions of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) about inflation and wage data.
  2. The BOJ's ambiguous messages and contradictory statements are causing confusion in the market.
  3. Evaluating services inflation and wage hikes requires careful consideration of data and not jumping to conclusions.

Thank you for your support of this stack for it means a great deal to me & family; I have left it FREE with no comment restrictions etc & will continue! Can you consider a PAID subscription ($29 year)

Alexander News Network -Dr. Paul Elias Alexander's substack • 786 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Subscription
  1. The author is grateful for support and offers a free subscription but also suggests a paid option for $29 a year.
  2. The author values critical thinkers and encourages sharing the subscription with others.
  3. The subscription model consists of free and paid options for readers to choose from.

Let's Look At Data

Points And Figures • 746 implied HN points • 31 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics Monetary Policy Tariffs Inflation Data Analysis
  1. The Fed is politically influenced, as seen in their recent decision to keep interest rates unchanged, despite some members wanting to lower them.
  2. Recent PCE data indicates inflation is rising, which might justify keeping rates steady even in light of other pressures for cuts.
  3. Changes in tariffs are likened to taxes that can slow down the economy, and the current money supply suggests potential recession signs, complicating the decision on whether to ease rates.

Data Update 2: A Stock Comeback - Winning the expectations game!

Musings on Markets • 919 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Stock Market Investment Strategies Economic Analysis Market Trends Earnings Reports
  1. The stock market showed a strong comeback in 2023, recovering most losses from the previous year. However, the recovery was uneven, with a few big companies driving much of the growth.
  2. Investor expectations have shifted positively for 2024, with forecasts indicating controlled inflation and a soft landing for the economy. But, this positive sentiment poses challenges for equity investors as they must meet heightened expectations.
  3. Current stock valuations suggest that the market may be slightly overvalued. Investors should be cautious and consider potential risks when making decisions, as the future remains uncertain.

Retail Investors: The New Smart Money

Spilled Coffee • 48 implied HN points • 04 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Investing Trading Asset management Market structure Fintech Behavioral Finance
  1. Retail investors are now a permanent market force, making up roughly 20–25% of trading volume and controlling a huge share of assets with over 100 million brokerage accounts.
  2. They’ve grown more sophisticated, increasingly using ETFs, options, and disciplined strategies like “buy the dip,” signaling more diversified portfolios and better risk management.
  3. Real-time data, social platforms, and crowd-sourced research have collapsed information gaps, letting retail coordinate and influence markets in ways institutions must track and respond to.

Economics Roundup #5

Don't Worry About the Vase • 1836 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
đź’° Finance Economics Taxation Investment Debt Trade
  1. Many people believe that average tax rates and structures are unfair or ineffective. This could mean that policies need to evolve to better meet people's needs without creating high penalties for earning more.
  2. Trade barriers impact economic growth negatively, as they create higher costs in trade and limit opportunity for development across regions, both domestically and internationally.
  3. Access to credit can significantly influence people's financial wellbeing. If restrictions are placed on credit availability, it can harm those who are already struggling financially.

Could the USD Hyperinflate?

The Informationist • 1592 implied HN points • 07 May 23
đź’° Finance Inflation Markets Currency Investments Assets
  1. Hyperinflation is when a currency loses value rapidly due to extreme inflation.
  2. Some currencies have hyperinflated in the past, like those of Yugoslavia, Zimbabwe, and Hungary.
  3. While there is a chance the USD could hyperinflate, it is likely one of the last currencies to do so and owning hard assets can help protect against hyperinflation.

Measurement Army

Doomberg • 5751 implied HN points • 25 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Environmental Investment Regulation Markets Economy
  1. Modern economic systems struggle to account for environmental costs, leading to government interventions and frustrations among capitalists and landowners.
  2. The global focus on carbon emissions has led to the rise of carbon counting professionals, but many argue their value is limited.
  3. A proposal to create Natural Asset Companies (NACs) faced controversy when seeking to put a market price on nature, highlighting potential unintended consequences and opposition.

[2025–2026] Week 19: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock

Behavioral Value Investor • 14 implied HN points • 27 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Investing Value investing Forecasting Behavioral Finance Valuation Portfolio Management Equity Analysis
  1. Start building an investing checklist early and update it as your approach evolves so it becomes a reliable repository of your process and decision rules.
  2. Learn and practice forecasting skills by studying what makes superforecasters better than average and by making clear, probabilistic predictions to sharpen judgment.
  3. Share your answers in a single comment and engage with others' responses to learn through feedback and community discussion.

Buying This Luxury Empire

Compounding Quality • 904 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Stocks Investing Luxury goods Market Analysis Company analysis
  1. Luxury goods have enduring appeal and never go out of fashion
  2. The company being highlighted is a strong player in the luxury industry with a diverse portfolio of brands and global presence
  3. The company has shown strong financial performance with consistent revenue and cash flow growth, making it an attractive investment option

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 159 implied HN points • 29 Jun 24
đź’° Finance Investing Stock Market Billionaires Dividends Economic Trends
  1. AI is really changing the game for billionaires, with many seeing huge increases in their wealth this year. Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, has gained $65 billion thanks to this trend.
  2. Investors are seeing big changes in the stock market due to AI. Companies tied to AI are outperforming others significantly, which hasn't been seen since the dot-com boom.
  3. Dividends are an important part of investing, and there are companies that have been paying them for over 100 years. These can be good long-term investments since they show a commitment to returning value to shareholders.

Dirty Secrets: Eight SMIDs

The Last Bear Standing • 47 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Investing Equities Portfolio Management Technical Analysis
  1. A transparent, live model portfolio of eight small- and mid-cap (SMID) stocks is being set up to track contrarian ideas with clear entry, exit, and allocation rules.
  2. Stock picks emphasize off-beat, idiosyncratic names expected to realize fundamental or sentiment inflections within 1–2 years, using both fundamentals and technical reversals, and allowing opportunistic leverage.
  3. The portfolio is concentrated and dynamic—anchored by four core long positions with four smaller tactical slots—prioritizing total return over liquidity and volatility and promising ongoing updates for accountability.

Winner Takes All

Doomberg • 5270 implied HN points • 17 Mar 24
đź’° Finance Investing Stock Market Cryptocurrency Economics
  1. In the stock market, rapid swings in market value can be astonishing, such as Nvidia's $270 billion intraday swing – highlighting the unpredictable nature of markets.
  2. Rampant speculation in assets like Bitcoin can be a sign of impending currency devaluation, drawing parallels to historical financial crises like the Weimar Hyperinflation.
  3. Michael Saylor's aggressive strategy of leveraging debt to buy Bitcoin with MicroStrategy serves as a unique case study of riding high in the volatile crypto market, showcasing the power of 'pumpamentals.'

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.91 million SAAR in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 12 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Real Estate Housing Market Market Data Economic Indicators Home Prices Mortgage Rates
  1. Existing-home sales fell to a 3.91 million SAAR in January, down 8.4% from December and 4.4% year-over-year.
  2. Median existing-home price rose 0.9% year-over-year to $396,800, so prices are slightly higher even as sales cool.
  3. Inventory edged down to 1.22 million while months-of-supply rose to 3.7 months, which is about the same supply level as before the pandemic.

Beijing's Bubble Bursts Part 1

Diane Francis • 779 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Economics Investment Real Estate Global Markets Debt crisis
  1. Taiwan's recent election saw a victory for William Lai, which was not welcomed by Beijing and highlighted tensions between the two regions.
  2. China's stock exchanges have dropped significantly, with mainland markets falling by 6-7% and Hong Kong by 12%, signaling economic struggles.
  3. The financial issues with Evergrande Group, a major property developer, have led to a court-ordered liquidation, exposing the dangers of China's real estate bubble.

Quant Letter: February 2026, Week-1

The Parlour • 34 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Quant Finance Algorithmic Trading Machine Learning Financial Data
  1. Cutting-edge AI methods are moving fast into finance, with advances like improved limit-order-book forecasting, quantum-classical RL, GANs for market data, and finance-focused LLMs showing big performance gains.
  2. Open-source tools and frameworks are accelerating experimentation and deployment, from Rust/Python alpha libraries and LLM trading frameworks to adaptive agent code and Paper-with-Code projects for continuous learning.
  3. There’s a growing emphasis on robustness and understanding market effects, with work on interpretable/verifiable trading, statistically faithful data generation, microstructure modeling, and studying endogenous volatility.

[2025–2026] Week 17: Big Money Thinks Small by Joel Tillinghast

Behavioral Value Investor • 29 implied HN points • 13 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Investing Value investing Stocks Portfolio Management Behavioral Finance Investment Research
  1. Read Joel Tillinghast’s Big Money Thinks Small and answer six focused questions about his investment style, background, best and worst investments, stock ideas, and an AI-based prompt.
  2. His approach emphasizes finding small, undiscovered companies by doing on-the-ground research and favoring inexpensive stocks judged by current profits and cash flow, combining a Peter Lynch–style search with a Neff-like value focus, while recognizing how randomness can affect short-term results.
  3. Participants should post all answers in a single comment, engage respectfully with others, and note that the next assigned book is The Investment Checklist.

So...Is The Gold Boom Over?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 32 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Commodities Central Banks Monetary Policy Investing Macroeconomics Global Markets
  1. Foreign central banks sharply increased gold purchases starting in 2022 to diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar, and that central-bank demand was a major reason gold rose so much.
  2. In 2025 individual investors piled into gold and helped send prices parabolic, but a hawkish Fed nominee and rate worries triggered a fast, large sell-off.
  3. The core story — countries wanting less dollar exposure — remains intact. Short-term drops may be temporary and more central-bank diversification could keep upward pressure on gold over the long run.

A Sugar AI High Shrugs Off Bad Market News

Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America • 884 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Markets Investments Economy Interest Rates Geopolitics
  1. The S&P 500 continues to rise despite bad news like inflation and unemployment.
  2. Big tech billionaires are heavily investing in AI that may impact the job market and lead to technological warfare.
  3. Geopolitical tensions, including the possibility of war in the Middle East, are influencing the market's stability.

Gold & Silver: A Volatile Day, Not a Broken Thesis

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 47 implied HN points • 31 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Markets Commodities Monetary Policy Fiscal policy Currency Investing
  1. A single sharp down day is normal volatility and doesn’t mean the long-term bullish case for gold and silver is broken.
  2. Large fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury issuance limit how long the Fed can stay hawkish, which tends to push real rates lower and support precious metals over time.
  3. The U.S. external financing imbalance and a softer dollar add structural support for metals, but crowded trades can unwind quickly so expect two-way volatility.

"Absolute Train Wreck": US Adds $481 Billion In Debt In 3 Months

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 31 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Public Debt Fiscal policy Monetary Policy Interest Rates Debt Markets Macroeconomics
  1. The government has sharply increased borrowing, adding hundreds of billions in a few months and sustaining a new norm of over $2 trillion per year; at that pace the debt could grow by about $10 trillion every four years.
  2. Annual interest payments have topped $1 trillion and are set to rise, driven by large amounts of notes (2–10 year maturities) and a shorter average debt maturity that forces more frequent rollovers.
  3. This combination of rising debt and interest costs looks fiscally unsustainable and could force the Fed or Treasury into interventions that would weaken confidence and strain markets.

469: The Market's Goal, Synopsys + Ansys, Nvidia, Spyderco, Intel AI Spin, Nuclear Arsenal Forgotten Secrets, Recessions Since 1860, and Searching for Bobby Fischer

Liberty’s Highlights • 884 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Market Dynamics Mergers Tech industry Nuclear Weapons Film
  1. The market often surprises people and goes through cycles of confusion and growth.
  2. US recessions have been less frequent, signifying stability, but opportunities for growth still exist.
  3. Merger talks and developments in companies like Synopsys, Ansys, Nvidia, and Intel show shifts in technology landscapes.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 12 Jul 24
đź’° Finance Investing Stock Market Banking Economy Corporate Earnings
  1. Marko Kolanovic's bearish predictions about the stock market didn't happen, leading to his departure from JP Morgan. In a strong market, being negative can be isolating.
  2. Tesla's stocks have been rising quickly due to excitement around AI and self-driving cars, but some analysts warn that the stock may be overrated at this point.
  3. Costco is raising its membership fees for the first time in seven years, which could lead to an increase in their profits. Many analysts continue to view Costco as a strong investment option.

talking sense on housing affordability

bad cattitude • 203 implied HN points • 14 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Housing Economics Real Estate Affordability Investment
  1. Housing prices have increased recently, but they were quite affordable before 2021. It's important to understand this context when discussing affordability.
  2. Interest rates play a big role in housing costs, and rising rates can make homes much more expensive over time.
  3. To truly improve housing affordability, we need to increase the supply of homes and make construction easier, rather than just adding subsidies.

The SaaS Bloodbath: Opportunities and Perils for Investors

East Wind • 19 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Investing Public Markets Private Markets Venture Capital Valuation Tech Investing
  1. The recent software sell-off is partly a market overreaction, not the death of mission-critical SaaS. Incumbent vendors that adopt AI can protect pricing power and improve free cash flow.
  2. Companies with "artificial limiters" — non-code moats like network effects, regulatory barriers, and physical infrastructure — are best positioned to re-accelerate growth and can become multi-baggers if bought at the right price.
  3. Venture investing is riskier now because public multiples are compressed and many startups are still effectively SaaS, so private-market entry prices may not be justified by exits, making public equities a clearer place to find mispricings.