The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

🏆 Cannibal stocks

Compounding Quality • 2024 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
💰 Finance Stocks Investing Companies Market
  1. Cannibal stocks are companies buying back their own shares, increasing your ownership without effort.
  2. Buybacks create value when a stock is undervalued, like investing in your own company.
  3. 15 high quality cannibal stocks have criteria like ROIC, profit margin, EPS growth, and decrease in shares outstanding.

Market Cap vs. Equal Weighted Index Funds - Explained

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 239 implied HN points • 20 Jun 24
💰 Finance Investing Index funds Market Analysis Risk management Portfolio strategy
  1. Market-cap weighted index funds invest more in larger companies, which can mean more stability but also more risk if those big companies do poorly.
  2. Equal-weighted index funds treat all companies the same, offering more diversification and potential for growth, but they can be more volatile and expensive to manage.
  3. Choosing between these two types of funds depends on your comfort with risk, your investment goals, and how you think the market will perform in the future.

❄️🏢 Acheter un immeuble de rapport : tout ce qu’il faut savoir

Snowball • 1100 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Investing Property Management Financial planning Risk management
  1. Buying an income-building property requires thorough preparation and attention to details before making the purchase.
  2. Investing in buildings with multiple rented units can offer advantages like lower price per square meter, increased yield, and centralized management.
  3. When visiting potential properties, it's crucial to ask the right questions to sellers, observe key elements on-site, and gather essential documents for further evaluation.

Fintech: JPMorgan's $300MM gamble on the future of quantum computing in finance

The Fintech Blueprint • 1100 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
💰 Finance Quantum Computing Bitcoin ETFs Podcasts
  1. JPMorgan invested $300 million in quantum computing for finance with the aim of boosting cybersecurity.
  2. Quantum computing offers the potential for faster data processing but is still in experimental phases.
  3. Despite the buzz, there has been limited real-world application of quantum computing in finance.

Miao Yanliang on renminbi internationalisation: China’s test is domestic after peak dollar

Pekingnology • 79 implied HN points • 26 Jan 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy International Finance Exchange rates Capital flows Financial Markets Central Banking
  1. Dominant currencies endure because of strong network effects, but that very stability can create problems that weaken the incumbent and open a brief window for challengers.
  2. Economic size alone won’t make a currency central. A country also needs deep, liquid financial markets and trusted institutions, so timely, decisive reforms are essential to seize any opening.
  3. For the RMB to move toward the centre, China must deepen onshore markets, allow a more flexible exchange rate, open the capital account steadily, and build trusted payment and digital infrastructures. If these reforms are implemented well, the RMB can become a credible, stabilising force in a more multi‑centre monetary system.
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The Ackman Complex

Net Interest • 27 implied HN points • 13 Feb 26
💰 Finance Hedge Funds Asset management Insurance Investment strategy Fees Corporate Structure
  1. Pershing Square is now a widely accessible, London-listed fund concentrated in a handful of large, liquid mega-cap stocks, and it buys into these names when short-term selling creates mispricing.
  2. High management and performance fees have materially reduced net returns for investors, so the firm has moved to create alternatives that can offer capital on cheaper terms.
  3. By acquiring an insurance company to generate investable float, Ackman is building a Buffett-style vehicle to scale capital without extra performance fees, but the strategy adds complexity and its success is not guaranteed.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 17 Feb 26
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Mortgages Interest Rates Home Prices Rents
  1. Months-of-supply is back to pre-pandemic levels while 2025 home sales were the lowest since 1995 (tying 2024), which is putting downward pressure on prices, especially where inventory is high.
  2. Overall house prices were mostly unchanged year-over-year at the end of 2025 — the Case-Shiller National index was up about 1.4% YoY (Composite 10 +2.0%, Composite 20 +1.4%) — and recent month-to-month gains follow earlier declines, though Case-Shiller data lags by several months.
  3. Lower mortgage rates have led to a pickup in purchase mortgage applications recently, but that increase has not yet translated into significantly more closed sales.

The Houthis, A Disappointing Wage Report, and the Tumbling Yen

Japan Economy Watch • 1098 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
💰 Finance Markets Interest Rates Inflation Economy Wages
  1. The yen has weakened due to external factors like the Houthi attack, impacting Japanese economy and inflation, and market anticipation of interest rate changes. The disappointing wage report for November dampened expectations for a rise in interest rates by the Bank of Japan, leading to a weaker yen.
  2. An accurate model for predicting the yen's strength has a standard error of about 3.4 yen. A sizeable discrepancy between the model's forecast and the actual yen value could either indicate a correction back to expected levels or suggest a long-term trend change.
  3. The growth in nominal wages in Japan has consistently fallen short of the 3% goal needed for sustained inflation. This has influenced market expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions and consequently impacted the yen's valuation.

Investing Update: Hedge Fund Buys & Holdings

Spilled Coffee • 28 implied HN points • 21 Feb 26
💰 Finance Equities Indices Investing Hedge Funds Macro Commodities Portfolios
  1. US stocks rallied last week — the S&P gained 1.1% and the Nasdaq 1.5%, with small caps (Russell 2000) leading the charge and now the clear YTD winner at +6.5%.
  2. A surprise Supreme Court decision struck down the tariff program and sparked buying, and markets held those gains even after a quick presidential response announcing a new 10% global tariff.
  3. Gold jumped sharply and is up 17.4% YTD, showing many investors are still hedging against uncertainty rather than fully committing to the equity rally.

Our 2024 Hedge Fund Analyst Christmas List

The Bear Cave • 2799 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Financial tools Research
  1. There are many great free tools available for investors to research companies, such as the SEC Full-Text Search and Google Advanced Search.
  2. Paid resources like EdmundSEC and TIKR can provide deep insights and data for serious investors to enhance their research.
  3. Following insightful social media accounts and newsletters can be a valuable way to generate investment ideas and stay updated on market trends.

The 10-Minute Investment Autopsy Series: A Guide for Thoughtful Investors

Behavioral Value Investor • 52 implied HN points • 04 Feb 26
💰 Finance Investing Value investing Portfolio Management Behavioral Finance Case Studies
  1. A weekly 10-minute series will analyze past investment decisions to help experienced investors improve their process quickly.
  2. Each autopsy reviews the original thesis, lays out the facts of what happened, explains why it unfolded that way, and extracts practical and behavioral lessons.
  3. Readers are encouraged to actively engage by pausing after the thesis, questioning assumptions and biases, and using the lessons to avoid mistakes or spot opportunities.

Principles of Economics Made Clear (Part 3)

Photon-Lines Substack • 278 implied HN points • 20 Nov 25
💰 Finance Economics Investment Monetary Policy Financial Markets Economic Growth
  1. Information often isn't shared equally among people, which can lead to problems like moral hazards, where someone takes more risks because they are not fully responsible for the outcome, and adverse selection, where buyers end up with worse options because they can't tell the good from the bad.
  2. The economy's total production and income is measured by GDP, but while it's a useful tool to see how well a nation is doing, it doesn't capture things like happiness or well-being, which are also important.
  3. Inflation occurs when too much money is printed without a corresponding increase in goods, making each dollar less valuable, and this can create real hardships, like eroding savings and distorting economic decisions.

Cogent Analysis

Doomberg • 7086 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economic Analysis Forecasting Energy markets
  1. Analysts focus on continuous learning and understanding, while advocates tend to rationalize or attack inconvenient facts.
  2. Economies heavily reliant on energy resources like Russia may evade recession despite sanctions due to their unique market dynamics.
  3. US economy's short-term resilience and avoidance of recession can be attributed to various energy-related factors, such as LNG export approvals.

Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 114 implied HN points • 05 Jan 26
💰 Finance Housing Mortgages Household Debt Real Estate Macroeconomy Credit Markets Financial Stability
  1. The housing bubble was visible as a sharp rise in mortgage debt relative to GDP, but current mortgage debt as a share of GDP does not show the same alarming pattern.
  2. Lending standards are much stronger now, and most recent mortgage originations come from borrowers with reasonably good credit.
  3. Most homeowners have significant equity and affordable, low-rate mortgages, so a large wave of distressed sales and cascading price declines is unlikely.

Homeownership “Wealth” Is A Fallacy

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 35 implied HN points • 13 Feb 26
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Monetary Policy Capital Markets Mortgage Finance Public Policy
  1. Housing is primarily a consumption good you live in, not a reliable financial investment, because ongoing costs like maintenance, taxes, insurance, and transaction fees erode any supposed appreciation gains.
  2. Policy proposals like large MBS purchases, allowing 401(k) withdrawals for down payments, mortgage portability, or ultra-long loans are economically misguided and tend to require more debt or money printing, distorting capital markets and favoring existing homeowners.
  3. Tapping home equity or inflating home prices doesn’t create net wealth—selling to realize gains is offset by higher purchase prices, fees, and loan liabilities—so policies that prop up housing prices end up shifting costs onto younger buyers and non-homeowners.

What Causes Stagflation?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Money Supply Central Banking Macroeconomics Economic Growth
  1. Increasing the money supply creates an “exchange of nothing for something” that shifts resources away from producers, which raises prices while weakening real economic growth — this combination is stagflation.
  2. Unexpected boosts in money growth can temporarily cut unemployment and raise output, but once people expect higher inflation they change their behavior and the growth gains vanish, leaving only higher inflation.
  3. The severity and visibility of stagflation depends on private savings: falling savings make weaker growth and higher unemployment clear, while rising savings can mask weak growth even as prices climb.

Too much or not enough of Ricardo?

Global Inequality and More 3.0 • 1102 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economic Theory Globalization Inequality Political Economy
  1. David Ricardo's economic ideas are still influential, but they often ignore important social classes and conflicts. It's crucial to consider how class affects the economy.
  2. The effects of globalization are often viewed just through a Western lens, which can overlook the benefits it has brought to many people in other parts of the world. This creates a skewed understanding of economic progress.
  3. Critiquing historical economic figures like Ricardo should include recognizing their contributions to understanding social dynamics, not just focusing on their abstract theories.

One ETF Up 13% This Year And Another I Like

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 20 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
💰 Finance Investing ETFs Equities Macro Asset allocation Global Markets Portfolio
  1. I’m watching two non‑U.S. investments: one is up about 13% this year versus roughly 1% for the S&P, and the other was added to reduce concentration risk and sharpen the thesis.
  2. The core idea is that U.S. stocks trade at very high valuations (around 40x earnings) while the rest of the world is much cheaper, so relative valuation could start to matter again.
  3. If we see dollar weakness, Fed easing, and modest capital rotation away from U.S. concentration, these non‑U.S. ETFs should benefit, and it’s likely still early to own them.

10-Minute Investment Autopsy No. 2: Ferrari

Behavioral Value Investor • 37 implied HN points • 12 Feb 26
💰 Finance Equities Valuation Fundamentals Corporate strategy Portfolio Management
  1. Ferrari was seen as a better-than-expected business with low capital needs, lots of unserved demand, and deserved a luxury-style valuation.
  2. The investor’s unit forecast came true (≈9,000 cars) but earnings missed big — EBIT was €825M and margins 24% versus a €1.4B / 35% forecast — yet the stock still outperformed the market.
  3. Exact numeric precision wasn’t necessary: a strong qualitative thesis about business quality and demand drove good returns even though the detailed forecasts were off.

“We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Part 6

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 02 Jan 26
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Mortgages Wealth Inequality Public Policy Urban Economics
  1. Rising home prices are mostly coming from rising rents, so higher price/rent ratios often reflect persistent rent inflation rather than just speculative price swings. Because officials treated the problem as a bubble and tightened demand after 2008, they made rent-driven scarcity worse.
  2. Most of the price growth is coming from land rents caused by a shortage of new urban housing, amplified by stricter mortgage access and local land-use restrictions. This scarcity has hit lower-tier neighborhoods hardest, raising housing costs for poorer families.
  3. Viewing expensive housing as mainly a luxury or positional good led to bad policy choices like restricting credit instead of addressing supply and access. Policy should focus on how mortgage access and supply constraints harm households forced to move, not just on high-end buyers or headline wealth numbers.

The Gold Endgame Begins

The Dollar Endgame • 559 implied HN points • 02 Apr 24
💰 Finance Gold Market Manipulation Central Banks
  1. Gold prices have been soaring recently, possibly due to China's influence and central banks accelerating their gold purchases.
  2. The gold market has been subject to manipulation by central banks through various means like buying/selling gold, gold leasing, and engaging in derivatives.
  3. There is evidence of market manipulation in the gold industry, including spoofing tactics by traders leading to inflated or deflated prices, and the potential for a significant impact on the gold market if large investors start taking physical delivery.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 21 Jul 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Cryptocurrency Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. Investing in the stock market during election years is usually a good idea, as many years have shown positive returns regardless of who wins.
  2. Mark Cuban suggested that a Trump presidency could benefit Bitcoin and crypto businesses, mentioning that lower tax rates and business-friendly regulations could boost prices.
  3. Amazon's Prime program remains very popular, with many members sticking around for years, which supports the company’s strong sales during events like Prime Day.

Data Update 1 for 2024: The Data Speaks, but what is it saying?

Musings on Markets • 1099 implied HN points • 05 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Valuation Data Analysis Corporate Finance Market Trends
  1. All companies are included in data analysis to get a full picture, not just big ones. This helps avoid bias and shows a more accurate view of industries.
  2. The data covers many financial variables that help understand company decisions about investment, financing, and dividends. It also uses unique ways to calculate statistics for more accurate insights.
  3. The statistics are updated regularly to reflect the latest available information. Users should utilize the data wisely and be aware of any changes in accounting standards or currency issues.

Media Notes

The Lens • 982 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Debt
  1. Stephanie Kelton discusses alternative ways to handle inflationary pressures globally
  2. Central banks turning to rate hikes may not be the most effective solution for managing inflation
  3. Raising interest rates can have unintended consequences and may not always lead to desired outcomes

🔍 Screen for Quality Stocks

Compounding Quality • 1788 implied HN points • 08 Jun 23
💰 Finance Stocks Investing Screening Quality Companies
  1. Screen for quality stocks by looking at criteria like revenue growth, earnings growth, FCF/earnings, ROIC, net debt/FCFF, and debt/equity ratios.
  2. Investing in companies with strong financials and good balance sheets is crucial for long-term success.
  3. Tools like Stratosphere can help you screen for quality stocks, even if you don't have access to Bloomberg.

The Ownership Class and Working Class

Satisologie: Systems//Creativity • 29 implied HN points • 08 Feb 26
💰 Finance Wealth Inequality Investing Savings Economic Policy Labor markets
  1. About 70% of people depend on wages while a small ownership class lives off assets and passive income, and mathematically only a tiny share of workers can move into ownership each year while a similar share fall out.
  2. Both capitalist and communist systems end up with large working classes: capitalism leaves a narrow path to ownership for a few, while communist-style systems often close that path entirely.
  3. Seeding every person with dividend-bearing stock or indexed accounts at birth could, through compound returns, make broad ownership possible within a generation, though programs like this risk mainly helping families who can afford additional contributions without strong financial education.

Issue #148: Visa Goes Shopping in Argentina, eBay Bets on Pay by Bank, And Mexico's Plata Beats Nubank to a Banking License

Fintech Radar • 12 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
💰 Finance Payments Banking Fintech Regulation Investing Crypto
  1. Visa buying Argentina’s Prisma and Newpay signals a major push to own payments infrastructure in Latin America, vertically integrating processing and wallets to capture fast digital growth. It also acts as a hedge against mounting regulatory pressure on its core card business.
  2. Large platforms are embedding financial services — X is building broad money-transmission capabilities and eBay invested in TrueLayer to roll out Pay by Bank — which could shift transactions away from cards toward bank-authenticated, account-to-account flows. These moves make platform-led payments a real competitive threat to traditional card networks.
  3. Fintech infrastructure and digital banks are maturing: Modern Treasury’s unified fiat-and-stablecoin payments API simplifies moving money across rails, while Mexico’s Plata winning a full banking licence ahead of bigger rivals shows regulators are enabling fast-growing digital banks. Together these trends lower barriers for startups to scale banking and payments products.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 199 implied HN points • 23 Jun 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Market Strategies
  1. Nvidia's stock is seen as highly valued and risky by some investors. They believe more affordable competitors are rising, and the AI chip market isn't as profitable as thought.
  2. The stock market is split; while tech stocks soar, many other sectors seem stagnant. It's suggested to balance your portfolio by investing in more stable sectors like industrials and healthcare.
  3. Investing in Japan is gaining attention due to favorable economic changes and companies aiming to boost their values. This could provide good opportunities for diversification.

💥Lender on Lender Violence is Back! And on Steroids. Part III.💥

PETITION • 1002 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
💰 Finance Bankruptcy Investing Restructuring Debt Economy
  1. The article discusses recent bankruptcy cases involving companies like Wesco Aircraft Holdings Inc. and Instant Brands Acquisition Holdings Inc.
  2. The bankruptcy cases highlighted the complex interactions between lenders and debtors, showcasing the challenges and strategies involved in negotiations.
  3. Key themes in the cases include asset stripping, liability management, regulatory approval challenges, and the role of different parties in bankruptcy proceedings.