The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

❄️ 📈 Meta et Apple, une bonne idée ? La fin de Google Search ?

Snowball • 727 implied HN points • 04 Feb 24
💰 Finance Technology Market Analysis Company performance Investment Economic Trends
  1. Apple announces mixed quarterly results, with higher iPhone and wearables sales but lower revenues in China.
  2. ESG funds' popularity drops due to rising interest rates.
  3. Startups like Perplexity and Arc are reshaping internet search with artificial intelligence, possibly challenging Google's traditional method.

Don't update too much on money-happiness correlations

inexactscience • 79 implied HN points • 30 Jul 24
💰 Finance Money Economics Mental health Surveys Well-being
  1. Money doesn't always equal happiness. Many studies show mixed results, suggesting other factors play a big role.
  2. People have different values around work and leisure. This means that income may not always reflect happiness for everyone.
  3. Surveys on money and happiness can be tricky. The way they ask questions may not capture the real relationship between income and how people feel.

The Bear Cave #284

The Bear Cave • 629 implied HN points • 27 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Corporate Governance Financial Reporting Market Analysis
  1. Blue Orca Capital has raised concerns about Nutex Health's financial practices, suggesting it has benefited from a fraudulent scheme. They warn that the company's stock might drop significantly if these issues are proven true.
  2. Several companies are dealing with management shakeups, including Dentsply Sirona and Globus Medical, which recently saw their CEOs resign. These changes may reflect deeper issues within the companies.
  3. There's a new trend of individual investors rallying around certain stocks, which some call 'meme stocks.' This indicates that social media is influencing investment decisions more than ever.

Sustainability by any other name

Irina Slav on energy • 864 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investment Sustainability ESG Reporting
  1. French government banning oil and gas investments in certain sustainable funds may set a precedent for future regulations.
  2. The rigorous certification process for ESG labels includes evaluating impact indicators like CO2 emissions and renewable energy output.
  3. Investors may face challenges if funds in different countries have conflicting preferences for including oil and gas stocks in ESG portfolios.
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S&P Addiction

Investment Talk • 707 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Benchmarking Performance Global Markets Wealth Management
  1. Benchmarking can be a humbling but necessary process for investors to evaluate their performance relative to others.
  2. Choosing a benchmark is crucial for measuring investment success, considering time, effort, and opportunity costs involved in managing a portfolio.
  3. Fund managers and advisors use benchmarks for various reasons like performance evaluation, risk assessment, and ensuring accountability to clients.

Top Links 825 Central bank independence in historical context. Where the robots are. Carbon technocracy & the psychoanalytic view of the good life.

Chartbook • 572 implied HN points • 10 Aug 25
💰 Finance Central Banks Economics Market Trends Monetary Policy Fiscal policy
  1. Central bank independence has a rich history and context, showing how it evolved over time.
  2. There are significant discussions about technology and automation, especially regarding how robots impact jobs and society.
  3. The conversation around carbon management and our understanding of a good life reflects deeper psychoanalytic views on our values.

News of the Week (Jan 29 - Feb 2)

Stock Market Nerd • 707 implied HN points • 03 Feb 24
💰 Finance Earnings Market Analysis Investing Economic Indicators Stock Market
  1. Apple beat revenue estimates but had mixed performance in different product segments, especially in China.
  2. Mastercard surpassed revenue estimates and saw growth in various sectors like cross-border revenue and value-add services.
  3. Match's financial results were strong, although challenges like negative payer growth from price hikes are temporary.
  4. AMD ranked well in Cloud Workload Security and continues to expand its offerings with the potential for higher revenue and margins.
  5. CrowdStrike received recognition in Forrester's Cloud Workload Security report and shows promising growth potential with increased modules for clients.

Q4 NY Fed Report: Credit Scores for Mortgages Still Solid, Foreclosures Increase Slightly

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
💰 Finance Housing Mortgages Credit Household Debt Delinquencies Foreclosures
  1. Household debt rose in Q4 2025, driven by increases in mortgage balances and higher credit card balances.
  2. Delinquency rates edged up as more mortgages moved into 30–60 day late status and fewer loans cured back to current, while foreclosures increased slightly but remain below pre‑pandemic levels.
  3. Mortgage originations show strong credit quality (median score ~775) with almost no new loans to borrowers below 620, reflecting much tighter underwriting than during the housing bubble.

Valuations Don’t Matter When Money Is Fake

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 61 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Banking Market Valuation Asset allocation Investment strategy Macro economics Inflation
  1. Central bank money printing and nonstop liquidity have decoupled prices from fundamentals, so extreme valuation multiples can persist because liquidity, not earnings, drives markets.
  2. That liquidity is uneven, concentrating in a handful of mega-cap firms that prop up indexes while most stocks and the real economy lag behind.
  3. Given these distortions, protecting wealth matters more than timing the market — diversify into sound money, real assets, and non-dollar exposure instead of relying on historical valuation limits.

Investing Update: Bearish Data Emerges

Spilled Coffee • 28 implied HN points • 14 Feb 26
💰 Finance Equities Sectors Volatility Portfolio Risk management Commodities
  1. Major U.S. indexes pulled back this week, led by technology, signaling a modest consolidation as investors reassess valuations and seasonal weakness approaches.
  2. On the surface breadth is strong—every S&P sector is above its 200‑day moving average and equal‑weight stocks are outperforming—but the leadership is defensive (materials, energy, utilities) while tech and communications lag, which raises questions about the rally's durability.
  3. There’s hidden stress under the indexes: an unusually large number of individual S&P stocks plunged 7%+ in a short period, a pattern that historically precedes much larger market drawdowns and increases the risk of a bigger selloff.

The Silver Market Just Nuked The Narrative

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 106 implied HN points • 27 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Precious metals Macroeconomics Central Banks Commodities Market Analysis Investment strategy
  1. Silver's sudden, violent price surge is a clear signal that problems in the monetary system are showing up in markets, and it's more a systemic warning than a one-off trade.
  2. A rare convergence of falling real yields, Fed-cut expectations, central bank gold buying, new institutional demand, thin physical supply, and speculative derivatives created a squeeze that amplified the move.
  3. Precious metals are acting as an honest barometer of eroding confidence in fiat and central planning, implying a regime change driven by decades of loose monetary policy and rising deficits.

"Economy Is In Recession": Only 181k Jobs Gained For All Of 2025

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 20 implied HN points • 18 Feb 26
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Labor Market Monetary Policy Economic data Economic Indicators Commodities
  1. Headline payrolls showed only 181,000 net jobs added in 2025 — about 15,000 per month — which is very weak and consistent with recessionary conditions.
  2. Large downward revisions removed roughly 1.2 million jobs from prior estimates, with monthly revisions averaging around 105k, making the recent labor picture much worse than initially reported.
  3. The year’s reported positive job growth depends largely on the BLS birth/death assumption (+1.15M), while actual measured job counts were negative, so most gains reflect model assumptions about new business formation rather than recorded hires.

Down 60%, One Stock I Still Love

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 24 implied HN points • 14 Feb 26
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Portfolio Valuation Risk management Market Analysis
  1. A big price drop doesn't automatically mean the investment idea is wrong.
  2. The core fundamental drivers supporting the long-term thesis remain intact, so the opportunity still exists despite the decline.
  3. The decline makes the risk profile clearer, and after reassessing, the long-duration opportunity can still justify holding or buying.

What 25 Years of Investing Taught Me: 12 Mistakes Your Brain Keeps Making

Behavioral Value Investor • 163 implied HN points • 03 Dec 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Behavioral Finance Financial Education Risk management
  1. Always understand what you're investing in. Don't rush; take time to study the company and its future.
  2. Look beyond just numbers when investing. Pay attention to the company's quality and management to get a fuller picture.
  3. Be cautious with your investments and think long-term. Quick gains are tempting, but they often lead to losses.

Telltale Signs of a Recession

The Informationist • 1356 implied HN points • 09 Apr 23
💰 Finance Corporate Profits
  1. A recession is a period of economic decline lasting at least six months, indicated by decreasing GDP, rising unemployment, and reduced spending.
  2. The inversion of the US Treasury yield curve is a reliable leading indicator of a coming recession, happening 6 to 18 months before the actual onset.
  3. Divergence between GDP and GDI, along with falling corporate profits, can signal economic contraction, with 93% of CEOs preparing for a recession in 2023.

❄️ 🔧 Mes 38 outils préférés pour gérer vos finances personnelles

Snowball • 1356 implied HN points • 17 Mar 23
💰 Finance Budgeting Investing Cryptocurrency Retirement Market Analysis
  1. The post shares 38 favorite tools for managing personal finances including budget tracking, investment research, and ETF investing.
  2. The tools cover various aspects such as budget management, investment strategies, tracking investments, and finding information on companies and markets.
  3. There are tools for managing subscriptions, finding forgotten bank accounts, simulating compound interests, assessing insider trading activities, tracking crypto portfolios, and more.

The cocoa question

Asian Century Stocks • 805 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
💰 Finance Commodities Markets Stocks Economics Supply Chain
  1. Cocoa prices have spiked due to poor crops in West Africa, leading to challenges for chocolate producers.
  2. The tightness in the cocoa market is expected to persist, but historically, markets tend to return to balance within three years.
  3. High cocoa prices impact processors and chocolate manufacturers, who eventually pass on costs to consumers over approximately two years.

How I'd Trade Gold And Silver Here

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 48 implied HN points • 26 Jan 26
💰 Finance Markets Commodities Investing Trading Macro Precious metals
  1. Gold and silver have surged dramatically over the last year and a half, showing wild price action.
  2. The long-term bullish view on precious metals remains intact, with the recent rally not undermining the structural macro case.
  3. Short-term positioning is being reassessed, asking whether a short-term top is in and using four new data points to guide trading decisions.

February ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home price growth slowed to its weakest pace in more than a decade"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
💰 Finance Mortgages Real Estate Housing Market Home Prices Refinancing Delinquencies Affordability Inventory Regional Trends
  1. Early-January rate declines toward 6% opened large refinance opportunities for millions and pushed affordability to a four-year high, but prices remain elevated relative to incomes.
  2. National home price growth slowed to its weakest pace since 2011, with the South and West weakening while the Northeast and Midwest hold firmer, and inventories still lagging pre-pandemic norms in many areas.
  3. Negative equity has risen to the highest level since 2018, concentrated in recent loan vintages and in several Southern markets where over 10% of mortgaged homes are underwater.

Liberty Eroding, Gold Rising: 30 Years of Warning

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 27 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Banking Public Finance Investment Returns Economic Freedom Financial history
  1. Gold’s rising dollar price reflects the dollar’s debasement and tracks an inverse relationship with economic freedom; as political and fiscal liberty fall, gold tends to rise.
  2. Since abandoning the gold-exchange standard, expanding welfare-warfare spending and central-bank debt monetization have eroded monetary integrity and long-term purchasing power.
  3. For investors, gold has often outperformed equities this century and acts as a hedge against unstable fiat money, even though a formal return to a gold standard looks politically unlikely.

Top Links 822 The US economy: no longer growing nicely. Reinterpreting the GFC and where Haiti's gangs get their guns.

Chartbook • 543 implied HN points • 07 Aug 25
💰 Finance Economics Market Trends Global Finance Policy Analysis Economic Growth
  1. The US economy is not growing like it used to. Recent changes have made growth less stable and predictable.
  2. Before COVID-19, the US and other advanced economies had different growth patterns, and COVID made these differences even bigger.
  3. Understanding where gangs in Haiti get their guns can help explain some of the deeper issues in that region.

$10 Trillion Stolen Right Under Our Noses

COVID Reason • 1784 implied HN points • 28 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy Public Policy Inflation Wealth Inequality Government spending
  1. Over $10 trillion was spent on the COVID-19 pandemic, with $6 trillion from CARES Act and $4 trillion from Biden's administration.
  2. Money was stolen through fraud and embezzlement during COVID relief, with the effects leading to inflation and societal wealth disparity.
  3. The spending spree due to the pandemic led to significant financial losses, missed opportunities, and wealth redistribution, impacting many aspects of people's lives.

Stock Buybacks Explained

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 399 implied HN points • 04 Apr 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Corporate Finance Economic Policy Stock Analysis
  1. Stock buybacks happen when a company uses its extra cash to buy back its own shares. This can make the remaining shares more valuable by increasing earnings per share.
  2. Buybacks can be good for investors, as they might boost stock prices without having to pay taxes on dividends right away. However, critics say companies should focus on growth and investment instead.
  3. There are downsides to buybacks too. Sometimes, management might use them to inflate their bonuses, or they might buy back shares at the wrong time, leading to poor long-term results.

Financial Analysis: Will $5B Trade Republic, Germany’s Robinhood, win the race for European wealth?

The Fintech Blueprint • 707 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
💰 Finance
  1. The battle for European wealth is heating up with Trade Republic, Europe's largest neobroker, making significant moves.
  2. The rise of neobrokers like Trade Republic and Robinhood revolutionized retail trading by offering zero-commission trading.
  3. Trade Republic leads EU neobrokers by focusing on longer-term passive investments and rapidly accumulating assets.

The Bear Cave #285

The Bear Cave • 536 implied HN points • 03 Aug 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Corporate Governance Short selling
  1. A recent article warned about Pheton Holdings, saying it might face a major stock drop, which indeed happened with the stock falling by around 95%. This shows how powerful financial reports can influence stock prices.
  2. Several companies are experiencing high-level resignations, indicating potential issues within their management or business strategy. It's important to keep an eye on such changes as they can signal deeper problems.
  3. Activist research reports suggest some companies might be losing market share quickly, as seen in the case of Liquidia taking share from United Therapeutics. This suggests that competition in industries can shift rapidly.

Investing Update: An Opportunity In Software?

Spilled Coffee • 44 implied HN points • 31 Jan 26
💰 Finance Stocks Macro Sectors Earnings Sentiment Investing
  1. Materials and energy are getting big inflows and clean technical breakouts, so those sectors look poised to lead the next move higher.
  2. Semiconductors are signaling market leadership and could pull big-cap tech higher, while software is deeply out of favor with record-low hedge fund exposure—so it may be a rebound opportunity but still carries AI-related downside risk.
  3. Consumer confidence and labor-market indicators are weakening even as stocks hit highs, and with February’s historical weakness after a positive January, economic pain reaching consumers could create downside risk.

The True Price For An Ounce of Gold: $20,275?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 36 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Monetary Policy Currency Central Bank Fiscal policy Gold
  1. If you divide the monetary base by Treasury gold holdings you get a "Gold Coverage Price" — using October 2025 numbers that comes to about $20,275 per ounce.
  2. The monetary base has ballooned while Treasury gold holdings have stagnated or fallen, so the implied gold price has risen sharply and would imply a large devaluation of the dollar if redemption were resumed.
  3. Making the dollar fully redeemable in gold would force fiscal discipline because new money couldn’t be created without more gold, but if markets doubted the switch a loss of confidence could trigger a crisis.

How to Look Smart On TV And Dumb in History

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 56 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
💰 Finance Markets Investments Macroeconomics Monetary Policy Commodities Bonds Financial Media
  1. Financial media often mocks and belittles warnings about structural risk because their incentives favor keeping the party going, so being early on a correct call can look like being wrong.
  2. Persistent central-bank interventions, debt monetization, and yield suppression create market distortions that eventually unwind, with bond markets a likely pressure point when they do.
  3. Gold and miners acted like effective insurance against those distortions, outperforming equities and validating skeptics who warned about asset inflation.

Weekend thoughts: interest rates and climbing the wall of worry

Yet Another Value Blog • 1218 implied HN points • 21 Oct 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Interest Rates Market Sentiment Valuation Investing
  1. Stock market has had a rough few months with significant declines
  2. Current market climate has a lot of fear and worry, but it might be a good time to consider buying stocks
  3. The rise in interest rates has not led to a significant stock market sell-off, suggesting stocks may still be relatively attractive

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 179 implied HN points • 09 Jun 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Trends Economic Analysis Financial News
  1. Coffee stocks might help protect against inflation, according to investor Bob Iaccino. He believes that investing in commodities like coffee is a smart move right now.
  2. Tesla has divided opinions among investors and analysts, making it a complicated stock to assess. While some see great potential in Tesla's future, many analysts remain cautious.
  3. Nvidia's rapid rise in market value highlights the growing importance of AI technology. Analysts suggest sticking with major players like Nvidia and AMD as they are likely to keep gaining traction.