The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

The Bank of Japan July Surprise

The Informationist • 1100 implied HN points • 30 Jul 23
💰 Finance Market Dynamics Central Banks Bond Market Interest Rates Investments
  1. The Bank of Japan recently made an announcement that caused the USD and Japanese bond yields to shift.
  2. The implications of the Bank of Japan's actions have affected US Treasuries and could lead to the US Treasury issuing more debt.
  3. Investors are advised to strategically manage portfolios due to potential market shifts and economic uncertainties.

The Fed and Lennar

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Markets Investing Economics Monetary Policy Real Estate
  1. Inflation is still high, which affects the economy and people's spending. It's a major concern for many people right now.
  2. The Fed raises borrowing costs to control inflation, but this can also influence mortgage rates. Higher borrowing costs usually mean higher mortgage rates.
  3. There's a belief that when the Fed slows down on rate cuts, mortgage rates will rise further, impacting people's desire to buy homes. However, this idea may not be as straightforward as it seems.

Regional Banking Fear Is Back & Correlations Are Destroyed: TBL Weekly #79

The Bitcoin Layer • 550 implied HN points • 03 Feb 24
💰 Finance Banking Economy Bitcoin ETFs Market Analysis
  1. Regional banking sector is facing fear and challenges with toxic assets and credit exposure.
  2. US commercial banks are experiencing a credit problem due to underperforming commercial real estate.
  3. Market participants are struggling with shattered historical correlations and uncertainty regarding the Fed's reaction function.

The Fed's Repo Defensive: Part I

Concoda • 508 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Market Analysis Economic Indicators Liquidity management
  1. The Fed's repo facility has been used for the first time by major market players during a tough financial period. This shows it can help keep rates in check, but there are still issues to address.
  2. Over the past few years, the Fed's approach to managing its balance sheet has led to unstable liquidity in money markets. This instability caused significant rate spikes and raised concerns about the overall health of the financial system.
  3. When money market rates soared unexpectedly, it prompted the Fed to step in as a major lender. This was a significant move to bring balance back to the financial markets and highlight the Fed's critical role in managing economic stability.
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Banks banks banks (redux)

Yet Another Value Blog • 1022 implied HN points • 23 Oct 23
💰 Finance Banking Investing Economics Markets Earnings
  1. If you're looking at banks below tangible book value, you don't need to worry much about hidden disasters on their balance sheets.
  2. Even though there are concerns like a potential commercial real estate crisis or a recession, banks seem well-prepared and overcapitalized.
  3. Rising interest rates could actually make banks more profitable due to their interest rate sensitivity.

NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the tenth consecutive quarter"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economics Investment Housing
  1. The apartment market has been getting looser for ten quarters in a row. This means there are more vacancies and less competition for renters.
  2. Signs show that rents might drop as apartment vacancies increase. If more places are empty, landlords may lower prices to attract renters.
  3. There is less activity in buying and selling apartments, and it's also harder to get financing. This could make it tough for investors in the real estate market.

Spilled Coffee Year In Review

Spilled Coffee • 48 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Financial Analysis Market Updates
  1. The most requested content from subscribers was a comprehensive list of newsletters from the past year, which was compiled into one easy post.
  2. The most read piece of the year focused on the reasons to sell stocks, highlighting that concerns about selling are always present in the market.
  3. The year-end review thanks readers for their support and encourages them to look forward to future updates and insights.

November 2024 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Mortgage Rates Construction Employment
  1. Mortgage rates are really important for the housing market. They can greatly affect both people's ability to buy homes and the rate of construction jobs.
  2. Tracking construction employment can give insights into the housing market trends. It’s a clear indicator of how the market is responding to interest rates.
  3. There are ongoing challenges in the housing market, and the data can sometimes seem tricky. It's like a game where understanding the numbers is key to navigating the situation.

Housing Snapshot

Daily Chartbook • 1048 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Mortgage Rates Housing Affordability
  1. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has increased for 4 weeks in a row, reaching 6.94%.
  2. Mortgage delinquencies rose for the second straight quarter across all product types, with an increase in new loans entering delinquency.
  3. Nearly 40% of US homes do not have a mortgage, showing a substantial portion of homeowners are mortgage-free.

Serial Acquirers, The Art of Not Selling, and Chuck Akre's Masterclass

Investment Talk • 569 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Mergers & Acquisitions Capital allocation
  1. The post discusses the experience of heading to the USA for the first time and shares insights on a small cap company in the UK.
  2. An in-depth study on serial acquirers highlights the importance of CEOs with strong capital allocation skills.
  3. The paper 'The Art of Not Selling' by Chris Cerrone emphasizes the importance of patient and strategic investing decisions over succumbing to external pressures.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 59 implied HN points • 29 Jul 24
💰 Finance Investing Markets Economics Stocks Cryptocurrency
  1. Tech stocks have faced some tough times lately, with a drop in the NASDAQ 100. Investors are cautious and waiting to see how major companies perform in their earnings reports.
  2. During election years, financial and tech stocks typically do well, showing good returns. This trend is backed by past market behaviors where these sectors get investor attention.
  3. Investing in copper appears shaky right now due to issues in China’s property market, but experts still believe in its long-term potential, especially linked to renewable energy needs.

22nd Century Group: Answering the Wrong Question

Invariant • 609 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
💰 Finance Stocks Investing Regulation Companies Market Analysis
  1. 22nd Century Group focused on developing low-nicotine cigarettes but didn't consider if consumers wanted the product.
  2. The company struggled with profitability and faced challenges even after receiving authorization for their products.
  3. Shifting focus to a different product with conventional nicotine levels came too late for the company to recover.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing supply
  1. Asking rents are pretty stable, with a slight year-over-year drop of 0.6%. This means many people are paying about the same for their apartments as they did last year.
  2. There's a lot more new apartments being built, leading to a higher vacancy rate. This increase in supply is putting pressure on rents and keeps them from rising significantly.
  3. Single-family home rents grew by 1.7% last year but are showing signs of slowing down. Overall, rent growth is not as high as it used to be, indicating a cooling market.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 179 implied HN points • 26 May 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Trends Economic Analysis Corporate Finance
  1. Companies with high profit margins are doing really well. For example, Nvidia has a gross profit margin of 78%, which is impressive compared to others like Amazon and Apple.
  2. There are good opportunities in the bond market now. After a long time, stocks aren't the only option for investors looking for decent returns.
  3. Amazon is expected to overtake Walmart in sales next year. With Amazon's growth in cloud services, it's on track for $711 billion in revenue, compared to Walmart's $703 billion.

What Is A Stock Split and What Causes It?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 239 implied HN points • 02 May 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Markets Financial Education Market Trends
  1. A stock split means one expensive share is split into multiple cheaper shares, which keeps the total value the same. It makes shares more affordable for buyers, but existing shareholders get more shares automatically.
  2. Companies often do stock splits to appeal to smaller investors when prices get too high. Lower prices can boost demand because people see it as a better deal, even though the company's overall value doesn't change.
  3. A reverse stock split combines shares to increase their price and can be seen negatively by investors. It often suggests a company is struggling, as they might be trying to inflate prices without real improvements.

Money Supply Growth Accelerates And Hits A 27-Month High

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 24 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Policy Interest Rates Government spending Inflation
  1. The money supply in the economy is growing rapidly, reaching a high not seen in over two years. This growth is mainly driven by government spending rather than strong economic conditions.
  2. Interest rates are being pushed down by the Federal Reserve to help manage the government's large debt. This could lead to future inflation as more money is created to handle increasing deficits.
  3. Despite recent economic growth, many believe it isn't based on solid foundations. The reliance on government spending and credit could pose risks for the economy moving forward.

❄️ ⚡️ Tesla et Chine, le bon moment pour investir ?

Snowball • 550 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investment Stocks Economy Cryptocurrency Personal Finance
  1. Tesla stock has dropped significantly, raising questions for long-term investors.
  2. The Chinese government aims to regain investor trust in their financial markets after a significant drop in the CSI 300 index.
  3. Generative AI is disrupting the entertainment industry, potentially leading to more immersive storytelling experiences.

A Crash vs. a Correction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Price analysis Investment Strategies
  1. The Erdmann Housing Tracker helps understand the reasons behind changes in housing prices. It can show whether a price change is due to a crash or a correction.
  2. Using examples from places like Phoenix and Austin can clarify how different factors influence real estate trends. Looking at specific cities can provide a clearer picture.
  3. Being aware of market trends can help you make smarter decisions in buying or selling homes. It's important to understand what is happening in the housing market.

The Fed's Repo Defensive: Part II

Concoda • 367 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
💰 Finance Markets Monetary Policy Banking Economics Investments
  1. The Fed's Repo Facility helps provide emergency cash loans to banks when needed. This is crucial during times of financial stress to keep the market stable.
  2. Recently, there have been instances where dealers didn't fully utilize the available funds in the repo facility, indicating issues with how it's being accessed. This suggests that the process needs improvements to encourage more usage.
  3. The Fed is looking to make changes to the repo facility to fix its shortcomings and ensure dealers can quickly and efficiently obtain emergency funds when crises arise.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 318 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Monetary Policy Liquidity management Investment Strategies
  1. The Federal Reserve is not worried about the debt ceiling impacting its plans to reduce its balance sheet. They believe liquidity in money markets is still high.
  2. The U.S. Treasury has enough resources to manage until around mid-2025, but any delays in addressing the debt ceiling could create funding issues.
  3. Equity repos, which involve borrowing cash using stocks as collateral, are becoming more popular. This trend is linked to rising demand and values of equities.

Renters and the mortgage crackdown aftermath

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Mortgages Economic Trends
  1. Renters suffered a lot from stricter mortgage rules after 2008. Many renters ended up paying more due to fewer homes being built.
  2. There is a big difference in rent prices between rental apartments and owned homes. Renters often find they're spending more for less quality compared to homeowners.
  3. To fix these problems, we need either a lot more new rental buildings or easier access to mortgages for families. If not, many will keep struggling in high-priced rental markets.

GDP: Six Years of Zero Growth

Japan Economy Watch • 199 implied HN points • 16 May 24
💰 Finance Economy Government spending Interest Rates
  1. Japanese GDP has experienced zero growth in the past six years, with household consumption and business investment showing no positive change.
  2. Government spending hikes have prevented a worse decline in GDP, increasing by 8% from 2018.
  3. Despite a significant depreciation of the yen, exports have only increased by 4% over six years, indicating modest growth.

Don’t Panic About A Yen “Free Fall”

Japan Economy Watch • 239 implied HN points • 01 May 24
💰 Finance Currency Economy Trade Intervention Exports
  1. The danger is not a sudden financial crisis, but rather slow erosion of Japan's economic competitiveness and living standards.
  2. The yen's recent fluctuations do not indicate a free fall, but rather show volatility in the currency market.
  3. Japan has the resources to prevent a currency free fall and stabilize the yen value through interventions and its international assets.

Ideastorm #10

Market Sentiment • 569 implied HN points • 20 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Brands Politics Mutual Funds
  1. Investing in companies with many trademarks relative to their valuation has consistently outperformed the market for 50 years.
  2. Political leanings of fund managers influence their investment decisions during presidential elections.
  3. Consider risk-adjusted returns, like the Sharpe ratio, when evaluating market-beating portfolios like Motley Fool's.

Economics and Business Links, 1/15

In My Tribe • 212 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Investing Market Analysis Real Estate
  1. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have had complicated financial dealings with the Treasury. Their situation raises questions about privatization and how the accounting around their debts is handled.
  2. Eugene Fama argues that bubbles in market prices are hard to prove, suggesting that price swings are unpredictable and don't meet the classic idea of a bubble.
  3. Experts like Bill McBride believe there's concern about a housing bubble due to rising house prices, but he notes that lending standards are better now than during previous bubbles.

QE is Coming

The Dollar Endgame • 399 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
💰 Finance Markets Bitcoin Gold Inflation Central Bank
  1. Markets are anticipating increased liquidity injections from the Fed, with assets like Gold and Bitcoin hitting all-time highs even before the easing cycle starts.
  2. The surge in Bitcoin's value is attributed to significant inflows from U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs, indicating a historic rally compared to gold ETFs.
  3. The financial markets are preparing for a potential Fed intervention, likely in response to the rising net liquidity despite the seeming balance sheet reductions.

MAPS: Half-Baked Governance

Nongaap Investing • 47 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Corporate Governance Stock Market Investment Strategies Mergers & Acquisitions
  1. WM Technology's stock price is reacting to a non-binding buyout proposal. The offer of $1.70 per share seems low compared to the company's potential growth targets.
  2. The recent appointment of a new CEO and his equity compensation raises red flags about the timing and motivation behind the proposal. There are concerns about whether the company is acting in the best interests of all shareholders.
  3. The governance practices at WM Technology may involve manipulation, especially regarding stock compensation and the timing of news releases. This creates distrust among investors about the sincerity of the management's intentions.

When index funds make the market riskier

Klement on Investing • 4 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market risk Index funds Portfolio Management Correlations
  1. Index funds can make the stock market riskier by increasing how closely stocks move together. When more money goes into these funds, stocks often react in similar ways.
  2. The ownership of stocks by index trackers affects their risk. More index fund ownership leads to higher stock price drops during market downturns, meaning more losses for those stocks.
  3. As index funds grow, the overall market's volatility also increases, making big market drops worse than they used to be. The concern is that everyone could suffer larger losses during a major market downturn.