The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

World Yields are Inverting: Why it Matters

The Informationist • 982 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Yield curve inversions can predict recessions, with the US and other G7 countries experiencing this phenomenon.
  2. G7 Treasury yields show inversion trends, indicating economic slowdowns and potential recessions in various countries.
  3. Italy and Japan have unique yield curve situations, with issues like high risk premiums for Italy and Japan's unique economic conditions.
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Money as Addiction

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 864 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
💰 Finance Monetary Systems Economic History Currency
  1. Addiction can distort our sense of agency, making us act out of instinct rather than choice.
  2. Solutionism creates a narrative that presents our dependencies as voluntary choices, leading to a cycle of justification for those dependencies.
  3. Monetary systems, like addiction, can create a state of involuntary dependence presented as a state of voluntary choice, reshaping our societies and individual lives.

Are TIPS and I-Bonds Good Investments?

The Informationist • 963 implied HN points • 28 May 23
💰 Finance Investments Bonds Inflation Government Assets
  1. TIPS are Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities that protect investors from inflation by adjusting principal based on changes in CPI.
  2. I-Bonds are similar to TIPS in protecting from inflation, but have fixed rates and are not tradable in the secondary market.
  3. Both TIPS and I-Bonds are highly dependent on CPI for pricing and may not offer positive real rates of return in the real world.

On investment firms, brand & reputation

Buggy Humans in a Messy World • 963 implied HN points • 23 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investment Reputation Communication Performance
  1. Investment firms may not have a brand, but they do have a reputation which is crucial in a commoditized business.
  2. An investment firm's reputation is determined by how well they behave and how they invest.
  3. Good behavior includes walking away from excessive fees and communicating honestly, while good investments involve associating with reputable businesses.

🤖⏭ Nvidia's surge hints at AI's transformative potential. But what's next?

Faster, Please! • 913 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
💰 Finance Stock Market AI Economics Technology Investing
  1. Nvidia's surge in the stock market indicates the potential of AI and its transformative impact.
  2. The stock market reflects high optimism towards AI, but it hasn't reached the levels of previous tech bubbles.
  3. The increase in Nvidia's market value seems to be supported by actual earnings, not just speculative investments.

Fear Not

The Better Letter • 511 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Personal Finance Economics
  1. Fear sells and makes money, driving many market predictions based on fear.
  2. Investors face fear daily, driven by narratives over data, making them susceptible to fear-mongering.
  3. Long-term investment is crucial; while fear may lead to short-term moves, the market trends upwards over time, favoring investment.

The debt explosion: How neoliberalism fuels debt crises

Geopolitical Economy Report • 558 implied HN points • 13 Jan 24
💰 Finance Debt Neoliberalism Economy Commercial Real Estate Banking
  1. Debt has surged globally due to neoliberal economics, leading to countless crises.
  2. The Federal Reserve's actions focus on bailing out the financial sector, even when it doesn't benefit the economy at large.
  3. The US economy is heavily dominated by finance, insurance, real estate, military, pharma, and tech sectors, all characterized by high levels of monopoly and rent-seeking behaviors.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 324 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Policy Central Banking Liquidity management Investment strategy
  1. The Federal Reserve plans to keep reducing its balance sheet until at least 2025. This is to normalize financial conditions rather than to tighten the economy.
  2. Recent changes in interest rates show that the Fed is trying to clear extra cash from its programs. This could help push down short-term borrowing rates and shake up financial markets.
  3. Despite a strong U.S. dollar, there's still good liquidity available in the markets. This offers potential support for riskier investments as banks might adjust their capital due to rising stock prices.

The Monetary Event Horizon

The Dollar Endgame • 938 implied HN points • 08 Jul 23
💰 Finance Debt Economy Government Interest Rates
  1. The U.S. national debt is skyrocketing due to increased government spending, tax cuts, and economic events like the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a staggering $32.47 trillion in debt and a rapid increase of over $1 trillion in just 34 days.
  2. As the U.S. debt continues to grow, the country is possibly entering a debt spiral where borrowing becomes necessary to fulfill existing financial obligations, potentially leading to an annual interest payment of $1.6 trillion at a 5% rate and putting the nation at risk of financial instability.
  3. Rising interest rates and debt levels could push the U.S. Treasury towards insolvency, with potential consequences including inflation and the need for severe fiscal austerity measures to mitigate the crisis, a situation further complicated by complex economic feedback loops.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 4 Leamer's Counsel

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Monetary Policy Real Estate
  1. Housing start numbers are key indicators of upcoming recessions. When fewer homes are being built, it's often a sign that an economic downturn is near.
  2. The Federal Reserve may have waited too long to react to a housing market that was overheating, which ultimately could have led to more severe economic issues later on.
  3. In cities with strict building regulations, rising housing prices are often due to limited supply rather than demand. This creates significant issues like rent inflation and forced migration.

If We Have a Strong Economy, Why Are Americans Struggling?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Policy Market Trends Inflation Debt Management Monetary Policy
  1. Many Americans are struggling financially even when the economy seems strong. High inflation and rising costs are making life harder for a lot of people.
  2. Rising treasury yields and mortgage rates are linked to ongoing inflation and economic uncertainty. This means borrowing money is becoming more expensive.
  3. When people feel the pinch of price increases and government spending on foreign issues, they are likely to vote for change. Economic struggles can greatly influence election outcomes.

We're "On The Cusp" Of Another Inflationary Breakout

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 17 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Economic Trends Financial Policy
  1. Gold and silver did better than regular stocks in the last quarter, which is unusual. This could mean something important is happening in the market.
  2. Bitcoin had a fantastic year, showing that people are worried about money losing its value. It’s now a big part of some investment funds.
  3. The U.S. government is spending a lot, which helped the economy grow more than expected. But this could lead to inflation issues in the future.

Simple Portfolios

Market Sentiment • 923 implied HN points • 16 Jul 23
💰 Finance Investing Portfolios Diversification Assets Funds
  1. Steve Edmundson's successful investment strategy was to do as little as possible, keeping costs low and not trying to beat the market.
  2. Investing doesn't have to be complicated - simple portfolios like the 60/40, Cockroach, and 3-Fund portfolios can be the foundation for long-term success.
  3. Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio aims to perform well over time without predictions, with an asset allocation of 55% bonds, 30% stocks, and 15% commodities.

Downside at NVIDIA (and the Nasdaq at large)

Philoinvestor • 491 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Valuation Semiconductors Artificial Intelligence
  1. NVIDIA's stock price increased significantly faster than its earnings, raising questions about its valuation.
  2. The launch of Chat GPT led to a surge in demand for GPUs and an uptick in NVIDIA's stock.
  3. Microsoft's $10 billion investment in Open AI and the AI hype train are contributing factors to the current market dynamics.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Inflation Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. Inflation-adjusted house prices are now 1.3% lower than their peak in 2022. This means homes cost less when you account for inflation.
  2. Real house prices, which consider the effects of inflation, are still quite high compared to the past. They are about 11% above the peak during the housing bubble in 2006.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is also lower than its peak. This suggests that buying homes may be more favorable compared to renting right now.

Data Update 4 for 2024: Risk enters the Equation

Musings on Markets • 479 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
💰 Finance Risk Analysis Investment Strategies Market Trends Corporate Finance Economic Factors
  1. Risk is not just a bad thing; it's a mix of danger and opportunity. To succeed, you sometimes need to embrace the right risks instead of avoiding them.
  2. Different types of risks exist, like economic and estimation uncertainties. It's important to identify and categorize them to make better investment decisions.
  3. Risks can vary significantly between companies and countries. Understanding these differences can help investors assess potential returns and make smarter choices.

October 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Urban Development Supply Chain
  1. Rents are going up because there's not enough housing supply. Even as rents rise, home prices continue to reflect this shortage.
  2. Since the housing crisis in 2008, homes in larger cities have generally become cheaper, while smaller cities have seen their prices increase. The mortgage restrictions ended up making things worse for affordable housing.
  3. The main issue with housing costs isn't about big-city advantages, but rather it's about how difficult it is to build new homes in many areas, leading to a supply problem.

In Wake of ETF Approval, Bitcoin Worldwide Matures

Bitcoin Magazine Pro • 511 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Government Regulation Digital Assets Economic Impact International relations
  1. Bitcoin's worldwide acceptance is growing post ETF approval in the US.
  2. Countries are reevaluating their digital asset policies in response to Bitcoin's rise.
  3. Bitcoin is influencing global economic and political decisions, especially in countries like El Salvador, Argentina, India, and China.

Genesis Wins Court Ruling to Sell Tranche of GBTC Shares

Bitcoin Magazine Pro • 432 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Legal Market Investment Debt
  1. Genesis won a court ruling to sell millions of GBTC shares, aiming to reimburse creditors and stabilize Bitcoin's price.
  2. A large sale of GBTC triggered a market decline for both GBTC and Bitcoin in the past, causing concerns within the Bitcoin community.
  3. Despite legal disputes and setbacks, Genesis is moving forward with plans to sell GBTC to settle debts, potentially impacting Bitcoin's valuation.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 2 Respecting the Timeline

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. Home prices in cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas showed clear patterns before and after the 2008 housing crisis. They experienced a boom, then a downturn when lending tightened.
  2. During the crisis, low-tier home prices dropped more than high-tier prices. This happened because many poor families couldn't afford housing and had to move around or suffer from rising rents.
  3. Areas like Miami and Tampa had different dynamics, with more separation in low-tier prices before the crisis. They faced ongoing housing shortages, causing continual price increases even after the market correction.

Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Prices
  1. Housing inventory dropped a lot during the pandemic, hitting record lows. Even now, inventory is still not back to pre-pandemic levels.
  2. In 2024, there was a significant increase in housing inventory, which is a positive sign for the market. This increase could indicate stability in home prices as more homes become available.
  3. Monitoring housing inventory trends has been important in the past for predicting when home prices will rise or fall, making it a key factor to watch moving into 2025.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Market Trends Economic data Price analysis
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index increased by 4.0% in November compared to last year. This shows that home prices are rising nationally.
  2. In Florida, many cities are facing significant price declines. Out of the 30 cities with the largest drops, 15 are located in Florida.
  3. This data is based on home sales that Freddie Mac has financed and includes regular appraisals. It helps track housing market trends accurately.

NASDAQ:ARM is Comically Undervalued

Irrational Analysis • 159 implied HN points • 23 May 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Analysis Semiconductors Technology
  1. Irrational Analysis is heavily invested in the semiconductor industry, giving insights into the comical undervaluation of NASDAQ:ARM.
  2. Nvidia's massive demand for GB200 and Grace CPUs could have significant implications for ARM (LTD)'s value and future performance.
  3. Nvidia Grace CPUs might exceed sell-side expectations, potentially propelling ARM (LTD) value beyond current projections.

Regulators Should Conduct "Material Loss Review" Of Synapse Disaster

Fintech Business Weekly • 52 implied HN points • 08 Dec 24
💰 Finance Banking Investments Regulation Fintech Risk management
  1. Regulators should look into the Synapse disaster to understand what went wrong. This could help prevent similar issues in the future.
  2. There is a significant amount of lost funds that still needs to be clarified, impacting many users. Authorities need to take responsibility and provide transparency.
  3. The emotional toll on the people affected is serious, as highlighted by the Synapse trustee's feelings during court. Many end users are suffering and need answers.