The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

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FOMC Day

Points And Figures • 586 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Investing Markets Economics Interest Rates Federal Reserve
  1. Markets may not have much action until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) makes its announcement. Things could get interesting once they speak.
  2. Tariffs and other economic policies under the current administration seem to be showing positive results, with inflation and gas prices down. Many initial concerns have not materialized.
  3. There are questions about whether the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady. Some believe that lowering them could be beneficial for the economy and taxpayers.

Inequality is overwhelmingly between firms, not within

Something to Consider • 99 implied HN points • 13 Jul 24
đź’° Finance Income Inequality Corporate Structure Economic Theory Labor Market Public Policy
  1. Income inequality is mainly based on differences between companies, not just between workers in the same company. Some companies pay their workers a lot more than others, and that's a big part of why inequality has grown.
  2. About 40% of this inequality comes from workers choosing to work at different firms. The other 20% is because some firms are simply more productive or profitable than others.
  3. We should focus more on how many highly skilled workers are earning a lot overall, rather than just looking at top executives. More people than ever have high incomes, showing that there's great potential for those who can add value in the economy.

Michael Hudson: Why the US banking system is breaking up

Geopolitical Economy Report • 1275 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Banking Federal Reserve Interest Rates Financial Crisis Cryptocurrency
  1. The US banking system is facing a significant crisis due to the consequences of past actions, like the 2009 bank bailout and the quantitative easing measures that followed.
  2. Rising interest rates are causing bond prices to fall, which is putting pressure on banks as their assets decrease in value against deposit liabilities.
  3. The current banking crisis is reminiscent of past financial failures, like the savings and loan crisis in the 1980s, and is exacerbated by factors like the cryptocurrency wave and derivatives trading.

Fed's New Tool: BTFP...is it Inflationary?

The Informationist • 1257 implied HN points • 26 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Banking Monetary Policy Financial Markets Securities Liquidity
  1. BTFP is a program by the Fed to provide liquidity to underfunded banks facing large customer withdrawals.
  2. Banks can borrow against securities like U.S. Treasuries with no haircut and at a low cost.
  3. BTFP offers a sweetheart deal to banks, providing liquidity without stigma of borrowing from the Discount Window.
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"I Expect A Crash": Harris Kupperman

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 32 implied HN points • 05 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Macro Investing Commodities Monetary Policy Emerging Markets
  1. A big market crash is expected, but policymakers will keep injecting liquidity to prop up asset prices, so strategies that benefit from those liquidity pulses can still do well.
  2. Focus on transactional and croupier businesses—brokers, exchanges and other market intermediaries—because they profit from asset-bubble activity and the migration of wealthy capital.
  3. Favor precious metals and select emerging markets while avoiding many real-economy and tech bets, since policy appears aimed at maximizing asset values rather than broad economic prosperity.

Problems in Chinatown

The Bear Cave • 583 implied HN points • 17 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Investing Scams Regulation Fraud Market Trends
  1. Chinese stock scams have targeted U.S. investors for years, leading to huge financial losses. These scams often involve boosting the value of fake companies before selling off shares at a profit.
  2. The FBI has reported a big increase in complaints about stock fraud in 2025, showing more people are getting tricked. Scammers use social media and WhatsApp to lure people into investing in fake stocks.
  3. Even after a stock crashes, scammers impersonate authorities like the SEC to exploit victims further. They promise to help people recover losses but just end up scamming them again.

Top Links 827 Liquid gold. Anti-vax in America. Baltic bloom & The Fable of the Bees.

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 12 Aug 25
đź’° Finance Investing Economics Markets Assets Monetary Policy
  1. Gold is a very liquid asset, which means it can be easily bought and sold. This makes it a popular choice for investors.
  2. There is a significant focus on anti-vaccine sentiments in America, indicating a divide in public opinion about vaccines.
  3. The concept of the 'Baltic bloom' and the story of 'The Fable of the Bees' are important topics worth exploring to understand economic and social themes.

Fraud in Asia

Asian Century Stocks • 668 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Fraud Accounting Investments Financial Analysis
  1. Tan & Robinson's book on Asian financial statement analysis is a key resource for spotting fraud and misrepresentation in Asia.
  2. Watch out for companies with high margins, poor cash flows, fast-growing balance sheets, and complex corporate structures with frequent related party transactions.
  3. High-profile short-seller reports should be taken seriously when assessing potential fraud in companies.

SITREP - 12/26/23

THREE SEVEN MAFIA • 919 implied HN points • 26 Dec 23
đź’° Finance Payments Budget Loans
  1. Stripe Capital is causing issues by not processing payments, leading to a need to migrate elsewhere.
  2. The author experienced financial troubles, including fraudulent charges and a drained checking account.
  3. Despite challenges, the author plans to continue creating content and maintaining a positive outlook.

Money! Money! Money...?

Seven Senses • 1318 implied HN points • 30 Aug 23
đź’° Finance Wealth Money Economics Art Value
  1. Money plays a huge role in our lives, but many people avoid discussing it. Ignoring money can make it control us even more.
  2. Creatives often feel pressured to work without proper compensation, believing art should be 'pure.' This leads to undervaluing their work and struggling financially.
  3. Money can reflect our values and desires when used intentionally. It’s important to see it as a tool for expressing what matters most to us instead of something evil.

Partner Banking League Tables & Analysis: 2025

Fintech Business Weekly • 14 implied HN points • 15 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Banking Fintech Crypto Payments Regulation M&A Investments
  1. U.S. regulators are approving new bank charters faster, opening the door for de novo and crypto-focused banks to enter the market and reshape traditional banking relationships.
  2. Crypto firms are under growing compliance and card-network pressure—no‑KYC services can be shut down quickly—so players are partnering with or investing in regulated banks and building onshore stablecoin solutions to legitimize their businesses.
  3. Fintech M&A is heating up, from celebrity-led deals like MrBeast buying Step to Grab taking control of Stash and large corporate acquisitions, signaling a consolidation wave that will change customer acquisition and product strategies.

Evolve Exec Pleads The Fifth in Missing Money Case

Fintech Business Weekly • 44 implied HN points • 18 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Banking Fintech Regulation Litigation Payments Cybersecurity Deposits International
  1. Evolve’s tie-up with Synapse left thousands of customers unable to access funds, reconciliations showed huge shortfalls, a key exec invoked the Fifth on FDIC insurance, and the bank is still finding and distributing more money more than 600 days after the freeze.
  2. Evolve is resisting document requests by citing consumer privacy rules even though it was previously hacked and leaked terabytes of data, and court filings say the bank doesn’t know how the forensic firm Ankura calculated amounts returned to users while seeking to seal deposition transcripts.
  3. bunq is reapplying for a U.S. national bank charter under a new U.S. holding structure, but faces tough odds: other European digital banks have struggled in America, the addressable market of European expats is small, and bunq’s fee-driven model, limited lending, and clunky app may not win many U.S. customers.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Real Estate Housing Market Mortgages Home Sales Market Data Inventory Economic Indicators
  1. Early-reporting markets show January existing-home sales down year-over-year (about 7.2% in those markets), and seasonally adjusted national sales are likely lower. Many areas hit by Winter Storm Fern haven’t reported yet, so delayed closings could make the final numbers weaker.
  2. New listings were up modestly (about 2.1% YoY) and active inventory rose roughly 11.4% YoY, so supply is increasing in these markets. However, listings are still down compared with January 2019 in many places.
  3. Mortgage rates averaged about 6.2% in November and December, and January closings mostly reflect contracts signed then, which likely weighed on sales. Overall, most of these local markets remain well below January 2019 sales levels.

The Netflix Identity Crisis

Spilled Coffee • 44 implied HN points • 28 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Stocks Investing Valuation Financials Markets Corporate Finance
  1. Netflix’s fundamentals look very strong: revenue has climbed from about $20B to $45B, operating income surged to roughly $13B, and free cash flow turned positive near $9B.
  2. Despite those gains the stock is about 36% below its 52-week high and trades near $85, which suggests a disconnect between price and business performance.
  3. Investors remain cautious and are holding off buying for now; many want a lower share price or a clearer catalyst before committing.

This Year's Buffettisms

Investment Talk • 1159 implied HN points • 25 Feb 23
đź’° Finance Investing Stock Market
  1. Berkshire Hathaway's annual return of 19.8% since 1965 beats the S&P 500's 9.9% performance.
  2. Annual shareholder letters from Berkshire contain helpful Buffettisms and market insights.
  3. Buffett emphasizes meaningful investments in businesses with favorable economic characteristics and trustworthy managers.

Weekend Thoughts: Coinbase $COIN

Yet Another Value Blog • 1159 implied HN points • 19 Jun 23
đź’° Finance Cryptocurrency SEC Regulation Competition Investing
  1. Coinbase is facing serious challenges posed by an SEC suit that could potentially put the company out of business.
  2. The primary defense of Coinbase against the SEC is the hope that Congress will change laws to save them, but this could lead to increased competition and challenges for the company.
  3. Even if Congress were to change laws to make crypto trading legal, it could have negative consequences for Coinbase's business by opening the door to strong competition and impacting its unique revenue streams.

Post "Sell The News" Market Update

DeFi Education • 639 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Market Trends Investing Cryptocurrency Economic Analysis Financial forecasting
  1. Selling Bitcoin soon after a major news event might be smart, as prices often peak at these moments. It's a common strategy to buy when news is expected and sell when it's delivered.
  2. Consider converting your Bitcoin into dollars or stablecoins if you anticipate a price drop. That's a way to secure your profits.
  3. Keep an eye on market updates and predictions, as they can help inform your trading decisions. Staying informed is crucial in the fast-moving crypto space.

Prediction Markets Are (Obviously) Gambling

Huddle Up • 91 implied HN points • 22 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Gambling Regulation Fintech Crypto Insider trading Sports Betting
  1. Prediction markets make it easy for people with secret information to trade anonymously, letting insiders profit and making the markets unfair. That destroys trust and turns useful information into a private money-making tool.
  2. They exploit a federal regulatory loophole so gambling-style markets are available nationwide and bypass state rules, and big platforms and brokers are embedding these products everywhere. This spreads access and influence fast while avoiding traditional gambling guardrails.
  3. Always-on prediction markets normalize betting on every news event and can increase addiction, financial harm, and social costs. By rewarding leaks and sensational outcomes, they erode public trust and turn public life into tradable events.

Secondaries Rising

Net Interest • 29 implied HN points • 30 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Private Equity Asset management Institutional Investors Fundraising
  1. Private equity still ties up investor capital for many years, with holding periods and distributions lengthening and some funds dating back decades.
  2. A booming secondary market has emerged to unlock that illiquid capital, reaching a record $240 billion of trades in 2025 as big firms raise dedicated funds and buy specialist platforms.
  3. Allocators and managers are leaning heavily on secondaries to manage portfolios and liquidity, making it a top priority area for capital deployment going forward.

This Is What It Looks Like When Shit Hits The Fan

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 105 implied HN points • 17 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Capital Markets Credit Markets Private Equity Corporate Finance Infrastructure Risk Investing
  1. A major financier walking away from a $10bn Oracle data‑centre deal signals that the economics of hyperscale AI build‑outs are getting harder to justify and the margin for error is shrinking.
  2. The AI infrastructure boom is increasingly debt‑ and leverage‑driven rather than self‑funded, with rising credit spreads and tighter lender terms suggesting cash flow may not cover the planned capex.
  3. That kind of pullback can rapidly shift market psychology from complacency to risk reduction, making a leverage‑heavy, high‑capex setup fragile and prone to a sudden unraveling.

STEALTH QE

The Dollar Endgame • 319 implied HN points • 11 Apr 24
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
  1. The Federal Reserve implemented liquidity injections in response to financial chaos post-COVID-19, leading to a tapering process that raised questions about the true nature of the measures.
  2. Despite the apparent tapering by the Fed, financial markets didn't react as expected, hinting at an expansion in the authorities' toolkit that analysts might not fully comprehend.
  3. The evolution of liquidity measures and updated understandings about the Fed's balance sheet reveal a broader range of tools and potentially hidden liquidity injections.

Precious metals investing - a beginner's guide

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 319 implied HN points • 11 Apr 24
đź’° Finance Investing Commodities Precious metals Market Trends Wealth Management
  1. Precious metals like gold and silver are valuable because they can hold their worth over time. People often invest in them as a safe way to protect against things like inflation and market changes.
  2. There are several easy ways to invest in precious metals, including buying physical bullion, using storage services, or buying shares in metal-focused ETFs and companies.
  3. There's a debate about whether gold or Bitcoin is a better store of value. Gold is physical and trusted by central banks, while Bitcoin is a digital asset with the potential for growth.

Macroeconomy Now Below "Stall Speed"?

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 484 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics Employment Inflation Federal Reserve Trade policy
  1. Job creation in the U.S. is slowing down, with only about 35,000 new jobs added each month lately. This is not enough to keep unemployment from rising.
  2. Inflation risks are still increasing, mainly due to trade issues and supply chain problems. These factors could lead to economic issues like stagflation, where both inflation and unemployment rise.
  3. There's a major boom in data-center construction, driven by AI investments. This is impacting prices and inflation, showing that certain sectors can create upward pressure on costs even when overall consumer demand isn't high.