The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

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I SOLDI IN BANCA

ANDREA CECCHI Newsletter • 176 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💰 Finance Banking Financial Crisis Risk management
  1. People have lost their life savings trusting banks - it's not a safe place for all your money.
  2. The 2008 financial crisis led to a wave of bank failures, and in 2023 banks are again under stress.
  3. It's important to understand the three fundamental truths of the modern banking system before depositing money in a bank.

What’s Deadweight Loss?

Something to Consider • 19 implied HN points • 31 Jul 24
💰 Finance Economics Trade Market Monopoly Taxation
  1. Deadweight loss happens when goods that could have been produced and sold efficiently are not. It means losing out on potential benefits to both sellers and buyers.
  2. This loss can occur in situations like monopolies where one seller controls the market and prices goods higher than in a competitive market.
  3. Taxes can also create deadweight loss by making some products too expensive to produce, which leads to fewer goods being available for consumers.

The Real Mission of the Fed

In My Tribe • 607 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance Central Banking Government debt Monetary Policy Financial Crises Quantitative Easing
  1. The main job of the Federal Reserve is to help the government borrow money easily and cheaply. This allows the government to spend on various programs, including wars and welfare.
  2. Despite originating to stabilize the banking system, the Fed has faced criticism for not preventing financial crises. Even after its creation, the U.S. has experienced repeated financial problems.
  3. Quantitative Easing, a method the Fed uses to handle money and loans, may need to end. This would help limit government debt and potentially benefit everyday Americans in the long run.

What is a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 279 implied HN points • 28 Nov 23
💰 Finance Investing Real Estate Dividends Market Analysis Portfolio Management
  1. A Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) lets you invest in real estate without actually owning properties. You buy shares in a company that owns and manages real estate, earning money from the profits.
  2. REITs generally pay high dividends because they are required by law to return 90% of their taxable income to shareholders. This makes them appealing for income-focused investors.
  3. Investing in REITs gives you access to commercial real estate, offers liquidity like stocks, and can diversify your investment portfolio without the hassle of property management.
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Portfolio Review - October 2023

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 359 implied HN points • 03 Nov 23
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Portfolio Management Market Analysis
  1. The author discusses reducing their portfolio from 24 to 20 stocks by selling off positions in companies like SQ, DOCU, IIPR, and JNJ.
  2. They reinvested the proceeds into companies like AMZN, MELI, Adyen, and Evolution.
  3. The author is focusing on concentrated positions in companies like MELI and AMZN, with some cash holdings for future investments.

Navigating Shark-Infested Waters

DeFi Education • 699 implied HN points • 14 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investing Markets Hedge Funds Private Equity Retail Investors
  1. Investing is competitive and risky, with many players trying to outsmart each other. It's important to understand that not everyone has your best interests at heart.
  2. Retail investors often lose money compared to professional institutions, which have more resources and experience. In 2022, retail investors faced significant losses, while hedge funds did much better.
  3. Market sentiment on social media can be misleading. Institutions keep a close eye on retail investors, and their decision-making is often based on a much broader set of information and strategies.

Endgame #1

The Dollar Endgame • 359 implied HN points • 26 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economics Global Markets Currency International Trade Cryptocurrency
  1. Argentina is facing a severe economic crisis with massive currency devaluation and high inflation, but there is hope for stabilization with proposed governmental changes and monetary reforms.
  2. China's property market is experiencing significant challenges, with key real estate firms facing default, worker payment issues, and the country slipping into deflation, raising concerns for a possible global recession.
  3. The BRICS alliance, particularly China and Russia, is strategizing to lessen dollar dominance by expanding membership and discussing possible alternatives, like involving major oil exporters and establishing a new reserve currency, amidst complexities and challenges in implementing such changes.

¥144 Is Weakest Since Last November

Japan Economy Watch • 359 implied HN points • 23 Jun 23
💰 Finance Economy Interest Rates Inflation Currency
  1. The weakening of the yen is closely tied to the gap between Japanese and American 10-year government bond rates, with a 97% correlation.
  2. Investors are learning to trust the statements of central banks like the BOJ and US Fed more, impacting market behavior and currency values.
  3. The chronic weakness of the yen reflects Japan's loss of competitiveness, leading to a trade deficit, higher consumer prices, and lower real wages.

Developing a New (Alan) Taylorism for the Remainder of the 21st Century

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 238 implied HN points • 31 May 25
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Political Economy Inflation Interest Rates Globalization
  1. We need to learn from past economic crises so we can prepare for future shocks. They often have long-lasting effects on our economy, making recovery much harder.
  2. Controlling inflation is key for political stability. When inflation is low and stable, people trust their leaders and feel secure about the economy.
  3. Even with challenges, like low interest rates, we have a great chance for investment in things like infrastructure and education. We should take advantage of these conditions to grow.

Why 3 US banks collapsed in 1 week: Economist Michael Hudson explains

Geopolitical Economy Report • 358 implied HN points • 15 Mar 23
💰 Finance Banking Regulation Derivatives Interest Rates
  1. Economist Michael Hudson discussed the collapse of US banks, noting similarities to the 2008 financial crisis and the reliance on government bailouts.
  2. The Federal Reserve's handling of interest rates and bailouts in response to bank collapses indicates systemic issues in the financial sector.
  3. Derivatives, specifically highly leveraged bets, are looming as a significant risk for the banking sector and could trigger the next big crash.

[2025–2026] Week 10: Warren Buffett: Berkshire Hathaway Years

Behavioral Value Investor • 37 implied HN points • 12 Dec 25
💰 Finance Value investing Investment strategy Portfolio Management Capital allocation Corporate Governance Behavioral Finance
  1. He started as a Graham-style deep-value investor but often acted like an activist, pushing management or catalysts to realize hidden value.
  2. Over time he moved toward buying high-quality businesses and whole companies, placing more weight on management, qualitative insights, and long-term compounding than on pure quantitative bargains.
  3. Comparing his partnership years to his Berkshire years highlights practical questions to answer: what to copy or avoid, which investments were best or worst, and how his approach would adapt to different capital sizes and situations.

My "Best Idea" Sector For 2026

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 24 implied HN points • 02 Jan 26
💰 Finance Investing Markets Equities Commodities Sectors Portfolio
  1. One sector is highlighted as having the biggest upside potential for 2026, but it also carries the largest downside risk.
  2. This year’s top idea is different from last year’s winners, which were gold and silver miners that ran up strongly.
  3. Full analysis is behind a paywall and requires a paid subscription to access the complete write-up.

Wartime vs Peacetime Markets

DeFi Education • 1678 implied HN points • 13 May 22
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Analysis Speculation
  1. Wartime markets involve high uncertainty and crisis, while peacetime markets are steadier and more stable. Investors often react differently in these two types of markets.
  2. In wartime markets, risk and volatility increase, leading to caution in investment strategies. People may prioritize safety over growth during uncertain times.
  3. Peacetime markets typically see growth and optimism, making it easier for tech and other sectors to thrive. Investors tend to take more risks when the market conditions are favorable.

A Momentous Shift.

News Items • 176 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
💰 Finance Global Markets Investors Economy India China
  1. Investors are pulling billions of dollars from China and shifting focus to India
  2. Wall Street giants like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are endorsing India as a prime investment destination
  3. India is becoming a popular choice for various global investment firms and even conservative investors

Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities

Musings on Markets • 839 implied HN points • 22 Jan 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Investment Risk Economic Trends Portfolio Management Market Analysis
  1. 2022 was a tough year for stocks, with the S&P 500 dropping about 18%. Negative years are common in the stock market, reminding us that investing carries risks.
  2. Inflation was a major factor in the market's decline, impacting returns on stocks. Higher costs of living affected investors' expectations and how companies performed.
  3. Looking forward to 2023, expected returns on stocks are higher, around 9.82%. However, market conditions can change, making it important for investors to stay informed and adjust their strategies.

Hidden Champions among India's ADRs/GDRs

Asian Century Stocks • 353 implied HN points • 10 Sep 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Companies Economy Market Analysis
  1. There are high-quality Indian companies listed overseas that international investors can consider.
  2. Among the 16 Indian companies listed overseas, five were highlighted as having competitive products and potential for growth.
  3. The Indian market has more than 5,000 listed stocks, with Indian ADRs and GDRs having a combined market cap of around US$660 billion.

What Did Buffett See in AAPL in 2016? Coca-Cola

Value Investing Substack • 353 implied HN points • 11 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Analysis Valuation Portfolio
  1. In 2016, Apple stock was undervalued with a low P/E ratio, making it an attractive investment opportunity.
  2. Apple's brand strength and ability to create standardized products quickly were key factors that Buffett saw in the stock.
  3. Buffett's investment strategy in Apple was similar to his approach with Coca-Cola, focusing on consistent returns and solid fundamentals.

New Jersey Goes Rogue

Mindset Value • 353 implied HN points • 05 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investment Market Analysis Company analysis Valuation
  1. New Jersey has limited licenses for cannabis companies, leading to high prices and lower quality products.
  2. Grown Rogue is entering New Jersey with their high-quality, low-cost cannabis, potentially disrupting the market.
  3. Grown Rogue's operational excellence and efficiency position them as a valuable investment opportunity in the cannabis industry.

Is EBITDA Really Bullshit? Answer: "It Depends"

Value Investing Substack • 353 implied HN points • 05 Aug 23
💰 Finance Investing Accounting Economics Companies Metrics
  1. EBITDA can be a controversial metric in finance, with some calling it 'bullshit earnings'.
  2. John Malone successfully used EBITDA to communicate TCI's growth strategy in cable industry.
  3. Valeant Pharmaceuticals' misuse of EBITDA led to financial trouble, highlighting the importance of understanding the context behind EBITDA figures.

CK Hutchison update (1 HK)

Asian Century Stocks • 353 implied HN points • 07 Sep 23
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Earnings Inflation
  1. CK Hutchison is facing inflation pressures due to weak Euro, high inflation, and high-interest rates.
  2. The company is transitioning towards becoming more asset-light through selling assets and share buybacks to increase return on equity.
  3. Potential factors affecting CK Hutchison's future performance include interest payment repricing, margin rebounds, and growth in the retail segment.

Microsoft's worst week in years; Google also stumbles

Achee Alpha • 6 implied HN points • 08 Feb 26
💰 Finance Markets Earnings Investing Tech Stocks Cloud Computing Artificial Intelligence
  1. Microsoft's stock plunged despite solid revenue because investors doubt its AI strategy and fear AI will compress software profit margins.
  2. Microsoft's consumer AI products have fallen behind competitors and only a small share of Office users have adopted Copilot, suggesting businesses don't yet see enough value.
  3. Big cloud players are pouring money into AI infrastructure and investors are demanding clear paths to profit, which has put pressure on companies like Microsoft and Google amid heavy capex and uncertain monetization.

Letter #152: Steve Eisman, Danny Moses, Vincent Daniel, and Porter Collins (2024)

A Letter a Day • 176 implied HN points • 03 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Financial Crisis Short selling Economy Stock Market
  1. Four 'Big Short' traders from FrontPoint Partners discussed their experiences and current perspectives on investing and short selling in the financial industry.
  2. They shared insights on their past trades like shorting Tesla and UPS, as well as their current high conviction trades and concerns about areas like commercial real estate.
  3. Despite changes in their approach and careers, these traders continue to monitor credit quality and consumer behavior as key indicators for the US economy.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 221 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investments Economic Trends Financial Policy Banking
  1. The money market is moving from a period of cash abundance to more careful funding conditions. This could affect how money flows in the next few months.
  2. A big change is expected once the debt limit is resolved, which could lead to a surge in bills. This might reduce the reserves banks have available.
  3. Foreign investors may be less interested in U.S. Treasury securities because other local bonds offer better returns. This could impact future U.S. debt sales.

READING/HOISTED: From 2021: Matt Levine Is Bewildered by the Financial Economics of Elon Musk

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 222 implied HN points • 06 Jun 25
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Analysis Behavioral Finance
  1. Elon Musk's influence on investments shows that value now often comes from social dynamics and celebrity power rather than traditional financial metrics. His tweets can drive prices up just because many people decide to buy into his hype.
  2. The rise of assets like GameStop and Dogecoin highlights a new way people coordinate their purchases online, often based on collective agreement rather than a solid analysis of the underlying value.
  3. Money and value are becoming less about concrete assets and more about social perceptions and internet culture. As social media evolves, how we view and use money is changing too.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 464 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Central Banking Liquidity management
  1. The Federal Reserve took steps to manage money market pressures around year-end, which helped stabilize the situation. They provided morning repo operations to encourage lower trading rates.
  2. Despite these efforts, many traders still chose not to use the Fed’s cheapest repo options, which showed a lingering fear about using those facilities. This meant that repurchase agreements still traded at higher rates.
  3. Looking ahead, the debt ceiling is expected to cause uncertainty in the money markets. As people prepare for this, interbank liquidity may increase, but it won't necessarily make funding any easier.

Economics Links, 2/2/2025

In My Tribe • 410 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Investing Market Trends Sustainability Energy
  1. The rising 10-year Treasury yield means higher costs for government debt and could hurt stock prices as investors change their expectations.
  2. Traders need to be careful with market momentum, as it can shift unexpectedly, leading to losses when everyone stops buying at high prices.
  3. Renewable energy projects face high costs to connect to the grid, and large battery systems have limitations, raising questions about their reliability.

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Household Debt Home Equity Macroeconomics Financial Data
  1. Mortgage equity withdrawal was slightly positive in Q3, meaning homeowners overall pulled out a little equity but not anywhere near the bubble-era levels.
  2. Mortgage debt rose by $108 billion in Q3 (the same as Q2), though a good share of that borrowing is for buying homes rather than tapping existing equity.
  3. Mortgage debt as a share of GDP is down to about 43.9% from its bubble peak, so most homeowners now have large equity cushions and few are in negative equity, meaning the “home ATM” is mostly closed.

Just Own Stocks

Spilled Coffee • 52 implied HN points • 19 Nov 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Wealth Building Economic Trends Personal Finance
  1. Investing in stocks is a smart long-term strategy. Even if the market feels uncertain, staying invested usually pays off over time.
  2. Many people underestimate the costs of owning a home. Homes can seem like good investments but often don't grow wealth as effectively as stocks.
  3. It's better to invest regularly in the stock market rather than trying to time when to buy or sell. Consistency is key for building wealth over the long run.

Links - 01/30/2024

Value Investing World • 176 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Big profits often come from investments made in tough times.
  2. Consider reading interviews and annual reports for valuable insights.
  3. You can get 7-day free access to full post archives by subscribing.

Yellen's Billion Dollar Credit Card

The Dollar Endgame • 339 implied HN points • 05 Jun 23
💰 Finance Government debt Federal Reserve Market Dynamics
  1. The Treasury is issuing extremely short-term debt instruments to finance government operations, essentially turning into a massive credit card to avoid default.
  2. The history of short-duration Treasury bills dates back to World War I, where the debate of financing war expenses through debt or taxes arose, leading to the issuance of Liberty bonds and certificates of indebtedness.
  3. The use of these short-term debt instruments by the Treasury is a strategic move to meet immediate financial obligations, especially amid significant spending needs, while also impacting liquidity in the banking system.

The Dying Banks and the Singularity

The Dollar Endgame • 339 implied HN points • 12 May 23
💰 Finance Banking Investments Market Regulations Risk management
  1. There is a financial crisis brewing with banks collapsing and facing liquidity issues, leading to a rapid withdrawal of funds from the system.
  2. Banks like Silicon Valley Bank have made risky investments with high-end clients, creating vulnerabilities in the financial sector.
  3. The Federal Reserve's policies have inadvertently caused a drain on traditional banks, pushing money into shadow banks and triggering a potential chain of bank failures.

Unknown and Unknowable

Lewis Enterprises • 334 implied HN points • 08 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing Artificial Intelligence Risk management
  1. Richard Zeckhauser's essay emphasizes recognizing a lack of edge rather than just analytical skill in investing.
  2. Asset prices can heavily discount ambiguity in situations where future states are unknown.
  3. Artificial Intelligence could be applied in investing UU situations based on Zeckhauser's maxims for investing in the unknown and unknowable.

Cutting Interest Rates Isn’t a Cure‑All for the Economy

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Inflation Fiscal policy Labor markets Central Banking
  1. Cutting interest rates only creates a temporary boom with fake job gains and malinvestment that leads to a deeper bust later.
  2. A real recovery needs market‑driven interest rates, sound money, and fiscal restraint so savings and investment can realign properly.
  3. Labor-market problems are worsened by wage rigidities and regulations, so letting wages adjust and removing hiring barriers helps jobs recover.