The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Is the US economy heading for a soft landing? Part 1/2

Global Markets Investor • 59 implied HN points • 17 Dec 23
💰 Finance Economic Forecasting Banking Sector Consumer spending Interest Rates
  1. Soft landing in the US economy refers to a scenario where interest rates increase without causing a recession. Achieving a soft landing is challenging due to the unpredictable effects of rising rates.
  2. Current economic indicators suggest a potential slowdown, with data like US bank lending growth declining and bankruptcy filings increasing. These factors could lead to significant economic problems if extended.
  3. Consumer spending in the US may face limitations, as issues like high credit card debt and rising delinquencies pose risks. The Federal Reserve's actions regarding interest rates could impact future economic outcomes.

Taxes?

Pinecone Weekly Brief • 78 implied HN points • 28 Oct 23
💰 Finance Taxes
  1. The post is about taxes.
  2. The post includes a link to Chase Taylor's profile.
  3. There is an option for a 7-day free trial to access more content.

Why investors are getting the US debasement trade all wrong

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 16 Feb 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Currency Markets Market risk Macroeconomics Investment strategy
  1. The popular "dollar debasement" trade is overblown and investors are likely overestimating how much trouble the dollar actually faces.
  2. Investors are underestimating the risk to U.S. Treasuries, which may be the more vulnerable asset class right now.
  3. Either the debasement narrative is misplaced or investors are only catching up to trends that began about fifteen years ago, so this isn’t a new surprise and may reflect outdated thinking.

Modern Industrial Policy

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 78 implied HN points • 28 Oct 23
💰 Finance Economics Investing Monetary Policy Market Analysis
  1. The equity market faced a valuation correction, driven by different sectors and Treasury supply issues.
  2. Strong growth data and monetary policy shifts are impacting financial conditions and asset valuations.
  3. Investment outlook suggests potential for disorderly market shifts despite some attractiveness in fixed income.

THE MACRO-FINANCE SITCH: The Streams (of Falling Short-Term & Rising Long-Term U.S. Treasury Rates) Cross

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 115 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Markets Bonds Economics Investing Policy
  1. Short-term Treasury rates are falling while long-term rates are rising, showing a change in investor expectations about future interest rates. This shift hints at more uncertainty in the market.
  2. The current economic situation could lead to tumultuous changes similar to past events in the UK, with concerns about the U.S. government's approach to debt and fiscal policy.
  3. Investors seem to be valuing flexibility over fixed returns, suggesting they want to avoid risks associated with long-term bonds in a fluctuating economy.
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Clouded Judgement 12.26.25 - Exuberance Returning

Clouded Judgement • 7 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
💰 Finance Venture Capital Public Markets Valuation SaaS Metrics M&A Fundraising
  1. A broad wave of exuberance looks likely in 2026 as improving macro conditions and AI-driven IPOs and M&A restore liquidity, driving faster fundraising and rising valuations across stages.
  2. AI is moving from experiment to scale, with more application companies showing measurable revenue growth and real ROI across verticals rather than just infrastructure wins.
  3. The comeback will feel frothy and sometimes irrational, but those periods also create rare long-term investment opportunities, so investors need to separate short-term momentum from structurally important businesses.

Charts & More Charts

Spilled Coffee • 44 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
💰 Finance Markets Investments Economics Data Analysis Trends
  1. There are many intriguing charts out there that can help us understand market movements. Sharing these visuals can provide valuable insights to readers.
  2. A significant amount of money is currently in Money Market Funds, but it's actually a small fraction compared to total assets. It's important to see these numbers in the right context.
  3. Mortgage applications are picking up, suggesting a possible shift in the housing market. If mortgage rates drop, there could be a surge in home buying soon.

What 10 well-known investors are thinking about in 2023.

Jon’s Newsletter • 199 implied HN points • 08 Jan 23
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Billionaires Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. Many famous investors are worried about the current economy. They believe inflation is a big concern and that central banks may need to keep raising interest rates, which could hurt the stock market.
  2. Some investors, like Cathie Wood, are still optimistic about growth stocks and technology. They think these areas will see big growth in the future despite recent struggles.
  3. Warren Buffett advises regular investors to stay calm during market changes. He believes investing in an S&P 500 ETF is a smart move for long-term growth.

Prepare for the Next Bitcoin Mining Infrastructure Boom

Miner Weekly • 59 implied HN points • 14 Dec 23
💰 Finance Bitcoin Mining Infrastructure Regulation Hardware Corporate Financial
  1. Texas is becoming a major global hub for Bitcoin mining, with plans for significant power capacity expansions.
  2. Several major mining companies are gearing up for infrastructure booms by expanding their mining power capacity in various locations.
  3. Regulation news and corporate developments, like the acquisition of power plants, showcase the ongoing growth and changes in the Bitcoin mining industry.

Will House Prices Decline Nationally in 2025?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 14 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Analysis Investing Forecasting
  1. Most predictions suggest that U.S. house prices will go up slightly in 2025, around 3% to 4%.
  2. The author's early view indicates that house prices might remain mostly flat, with some areas possibly experiencing declines.
  3. Currently, there is more housing inventory, which is causing the price growth to slow down across the nation.

Ben Graham's Duplex

Neckar’s Notes • 117 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Personal Finance Market Trends Wealth Management Economic History
  1. Money experiences often change suddenly, like climbing a ladder. It’s important to take time to adjust before making big choices.
  2. Ben Graham was a successful investor who once lived in a fancy duplex in New York City. He felt on top of the world after making a lot of money.
  3. However, he moved into this luxurious home just before a huge stock market crash. This teaches us that success can change quickly.

Is Bitcoin Anti-Productive?

Points And Figures • 319 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Investing Blockchain Regulation Tech Companies
  1. Bitcoin is often underestimated as a fraud, but it has potential for legitimate uses in finance and marketing.
  2. Investing in new, seemingly 'crazy' ventures like cryptocurrency is risky but crucial for progress and innovation.
  3. Cryptocurrency has the potential to revolutionize industries by breaking down monopolistic structures and introducing new possibilities like tokenized systems for immigration and voting.

The Liquidity Problem

Points And Figures • 346 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
💰 Finance Private Markets Investing Regulations Market Efficiency
  1. Carta attempted to tackle the liquidity problem of holding shares in private companies but faced challenges
  2. Creating a liquid market for private company stocks is difficult due to lack of buyers and sellers with aligned incentives
  3. Efforts to solve the liquidity problem might be more successful with digital programmable securities like security tokens

Ahead of the (Yield) Curve

Pivotal • 132 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Trading Portfolio Management Quantitative Analysis Market Strategies
  1. The story highlights the importance of adapting to changing market conditions. The team learned they needed to pivot their strategies quickly to stay ahead in trading.
  2. Building successful trading systems requires not just good math, but also understanding market behaviors and managing risks effectively. The approach taken focused on quickly executing trades to capitalize on market noise.
  3. Competition plays a big role in financial markets. As more players adopted similar strategies, the initial advantages of their system decreased, emphasizing the need to continuously innovate.

FHFA Director Pulte’s One-Sided War on Fed Chair Powell: Briefly Explained

Fintech Business Weekly • 37 implied HN points • 27 Jul 25
💰 Finance Banking Fintech Payments Regulation Investing
  1. FHFA Director Pulte is publicly criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates, claiming it's harming homeownership. His aggressive stance has caught media attention and raised some eyebrows in financial circles.
  2. Connecticut's Department of Banking has denied a public information request for an accreditation report, arguing it could harm the banking system. This move has sparked confusion as to how a positive report could be seen as dangerous.
  3. JPMorgan Chase plans to charge third-parties for accessing consumer banking data, which is stirring up tension between traditional banks and fintech companies. This fee structure highlights an ongoing divide in the financial services landscape.

GDP Disappoints in Fourth Quarter

Japan Economy Watch • 139 implied HN points • 14 Feb 23
💰 Finance Economics GDP Population Income Investment
  1. Japan's GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 was below expectations, growing at only 0.6% annually.
  2. Over the past 15 years, Japan has experienced very slow economic growth, with private demand remaining weak and government spending being the main contributor to GDP growth.
  3. While Japan's population decline has had some impact, the country's GDP per capita has still increased at a slow rate, indicating deeper economic issues.

If people talk about a bubble, it’s unlikely to crash soon

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
💰 Finance Markets Investing Equities Valuation Behavioral Finance Risk management
  1. It’s very hard to identify a stock bubble in real time, so you usually can’t be sure a bubble exists until after the fact.
  2. Media coverage and investor worries aren’t a reliable signal of imminent crashes; the press often misses bubbles or only calls them out after prices have already fallen.
  3. Even when a bubble exists, stocks can linger near their peak for months or even more than a year before a big drop, so crashes can be delayed and unpredictable.

Investing Update: Is This Peak Bullishness?

Spilled Coffee • 40 implied HN points • 26 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Trading Strategies
  1. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit new all-time highs recently, showing positive growth for the year. This could indicate strong market momentum.
  2. A newly reached all-time high in the equal-weighted S&P 500 suggests that more stocks are participating in the market rally, rather than just a few leading the way.
  3. Currently, there’s low volatility in the market, making it less likely for big swings in prices. This steady growth could mean that the upward trend will keep going.

Money is a Test (What Money Means)

Neckar’s Notes • 120 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Currency Economics Investment Wealth Management
  1. Money changes people's lives and values in big ways. For example, in post-Soviet society, people had to quickly learn what money meant, which turned traditional roles upside down.
  2. It's said that everyone believes in money, even if they don't share the same beliefs about religion or nationalism. Money is that powerful and universal.
  3. Our feelings about money often come from our past and family. It's not just about numbers; it's an emotional subject that many struggle with.

IWG: A Wonderful Company at a Wonderful Price

Modern Value Investing • 39 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Real Estate Marketplace Growth Profitability
  1. IWG has a solid legacy business model of providing flexible workspaces and is trading at a great price, making it an attractive investment option.
  2. IWG's Worka segment is a fast-growing and profitable marketplace business, showing solid growth and expected to generate significant revenue.
  3. IWG is transitioning to a capital-light model and aims to become a major player in managed and franchised office space, with significant growth potential in the untapped market of office real estate.

Is Japan’s Inflation As High As It Seems?

Japan Economy Watch • 279 implied HN points • 24 Jun 22
💰 Finance Inflation Banking Policy Economy Market
  1. Japan's inflation rate may not be as high as it seems, with different measures showing varying results.
  2. Central banks like the Bank of Japan use 'core' inflation rates that exclude volatile items to gauge long-term trends.
  3. The challenge for Japan's economy is to achieve healthy inflation driven by domestic demand rather than by high import prices.

Warden Q3 Letter

Warden Capital • 78 implied HN points • 17 Oct 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Markets Investing Economy Asset Classes
  1. The quarter felt stable until rates spiked, creating challenges in lending and investment sales markets.
  2. While interest rates have increased rapidly, recent inflation data has been promising, indicating a potential decrease in inflation.
  3. Real estate prices increase during high inflation periods, offsetting the impact of higher interest rates in the long run.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in June and a Look Ahead to July Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 25 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory Economics
  1. Home sales are down compared to last year, and we might see sales in 2025 be similar to those in 2024, which were already low.
  2. Inventories are increasing, meaning there are more homes available for sale, which could lead to price drops in certain areas.
  3. July sales are expected to remain steady compared to July last year, as mortgage rates and working days are similar.

Links - 02/07/2024

Value Investing World • 39 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Quality of investment decisions should be evaluated relative to the amount of risk taken.
  2. Risk cannot be fully measured and is not based on popular opinion at a given moment.
  3. Short-term returns alone do not indicate the true success of an investment strategy.

Lawler: Single-Family Rent Trends at INVH and AMH

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 04 Nov 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Investment Economics Data Analysis
  1. Invitation Homes and American Homes 4 Rent are two big players in the single-family rental market. They're important to watch because they can show how rent prices are changing.
  2. Recent trends indicate fluctuations in single-family rental prices. It's helpful to pay attention to these trends if you're interested in renting or investing in housing.
  3. Understanding these rental trends can give you insights into the overall housing market. It can help you make better decisions about where to live or invest.

Elevance Health's 2022 earnings are in, outperforms Wall Street expectations

HEALTH CARE un-covered • 199 implied HN points • 25 Jan 23
💰 Finance Earnings Investments Health Insurance Stock Market Government programs
  1. Elevance Health did really well in 2022, exceeding what Wall Street expected for their earnings. Their stock prices went up, even when many other companies were struggling.
  2. Most of Elevance's profit came from government programs like Medicaid and Medicare Advantage, not from selling insurance to individuals or businesses. These programs are where they made the most money.
  3. The company's pharmacy business, CarelonRX, also saw significant profit growth. This shows that owning a pharmacy service is becoming very important for insurance companies.

Using Alternative Data for long-term investment debates: Tesla thought exercise

The Data Score • 79 implied HN points • 26 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investment Financial Analysis Alternative Data Tesla
  1. Alternative Data is not only valuable for short-term predictions but can also enhance long-term forecasts.
  2. Investors should approach long-term investment decisions with a Bayesian mindset, considering various data points and recalibrating views as new information emerges.
  3. Breaking down unanswerable big questions into smaller, measurable components, selecting relevant data metrics, and continuously monitoring and adjusting long-term forecasts can lead to better decision-making in investing.

Investing in Insurance Today

Equal Ventures • 79 implied HN points • 05 Jun 23
💰 Finance Insurance Investing Digital Transformation
  1. Insurtech investments experienced a hype cycle: Surge in investments followed by multiples collapsing causing pain and caution among investors
  2. Disruption of legacy insurers by new entrants is challenging: Product innovation made purchase easier, but companies need to be profitable, not just innovative
  3. Digital transformation in insurance sector is valuable: Tech-enabled ecosystem enablers creating value, while legacy insurers are seeking digital capabilities

A quick introduction to Debt [Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 79 implied HN points • 29 Apr 23
💰 Finance Economy Debt Tech Companies Investing
  1. Debt is crucial to the economy as it helps finance investments that boost growth and productivity for governments and businesses, allowing them to expand and create more opportunities.
  2. Understanding good debt versus bad debt is important - good debt helps increase income or net worth over time, while bad debt costs money and limits financial opportunities.
  3. Tech companies often rely heavily on debt for growth, but it can be risky due to their business model of making money at scale and facing challenges in achieving profitability.

NVIDIA: How could alternative data be used to assess its long-term potential?

The Data Score • 79 implied HN points • 15 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investment Data Analysis Market Analysis Alternative Data
  1. Assessing a company's long-term potential requires more than just traditional financial metrics, and alternative data sources can provide valuable insights.
  2. For NVIDIA, alternative data can illuminate aspects like market presence, evolving applications, competitive threats, and supply chain investments, aiding in making informed investment decisions.
  3. Key questions to answer include evaluating demand, diverse use cases for GPU chips, potential competitors, and investment needs, all essential for understanding NVIDIA's future prospects.

5 YouTube Chanels to Master the Money Game [Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 79 implied HN points • 13 May 23
💰 Finance Money Business Finance Investment Economics
  1. Find high-quality YouTube channels to boost your knowledge of money, finance, and business.
  2. Channels like Modern MBA and How Money Works offer valuable insights into businesses, investments, and corporate culture.
  3. Economics Explained and Money and Macro provide deep dives into economics concepts for a better understanding of global economies.

Investing Update: 1st Half Recap & 2nd Half Outlook

Spilled Coffee • 44 implied HN points • 05 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Market Trends Economic Analysis Portfolio Management
  1. The stock market is performing well, with major indices like the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs recently. It's a great time for investors with most sectors showing positive performance.
  2. July is typically a strong month for the market, and historical data suggests that it may continue to be positive this year. Many investors look forward to this trend every July.
  3. In the first half of the year, certain commodities like platinum and gold have excelled, while some stocks have drastically underperformed. It's important to keep an eye on market shifts and adjust investments accordingly.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 286 implied HN points • 20 Feb 24
💰 Finance Markets Investing Banking Economics Money
  1. Dollar liquidity remains high with low failures to deliver, stable bond volatility, tight dealer repo spreads, and tightening cross-currency bases
  2. Changes in the Fed's rescue mechanism are upcoming, as discussed in a recent post by Concoda
  3. Exploration of the transformation in the repo market and its potential impact on other dollar markets