The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Too High for Too Long?

Modern Value Investing • 98 implied HN points • 06 Aug 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Interest Rates Real Estate Consumer Debt Economic outlook
  1. Inflation measures are flawed, leading to skepticism about high interest rates, causing uncertainty for the US economy.
  2. The current rate hike cycle is more aggressive than previous cycles, potentially risking a recession in 2024.
  3. Challenges in real estate, student loan debts, and credit card debts, along with aggressive hiring, may indicate shaky ground for the US economy.

The FED has left the US Banking System Destabilized after Unprecedented Interest Rate Cycle

Modern Value Investing • 98 implied HN points • 12 Mar 23
💰 Finance Banking Interest Rates Economy Federal Reserve Monetary Policy
  1. US banks are facing increased risks of deposit outflows due to systemic vulnerabilities in the banking system.
  2. Unattractive interest rates on deposits compared to treasuries have left US banks trapped without sacrificing profitability.
  3. The FED must act quickly by reducing interest rates to stabilize the banking system and prevent further harm to the economy.

Public Miners Raised $2B in Last Pre-Halving Quarter

Miner Weekly • 19 implied HN points • 16 May 24
💰 Finance Mining Regulation Hardware Corporate Feature
  1. Public bitcoin mining companies raised nearly $2 billion in the last pre-halving quarter, with the three largest companies accounting for a significant portion.
  2. Financing activities for public mining stocks have slowed down in the current quarter, but the investments still surpass those from the previous year's quarter.
  3. Public mining companies are holding a substantial amount of bitcoin, signaling a shift towards retaining mined assets rather than selling immediately.

The Three Types of Money Behind Silicon Valley's Rise to Dominance

The Future, Now and Then • 110 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Speculation Economic Theory Venture Capital
  1. Silicon Valley's success relies on three types of money: government contracts, product revenues, and speculative investments. Each plays a different role in funding and shaping tech companies.
  2. Many tech stocks are driven by 'vibes' rather than actual profits. This means their value can fluctuate wildly based on investor sentiment instead of real financial performance.
  3. When speculative finance overshadows the real production of goods and services, it can lead to an unstable economy. Companies need a balance of funding sources to grow healthily and sustainably.
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Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 19 Nov 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Real Estate Interest Rates Economics Housing Data
  1. In October, existing home sales increased slightly to an annual rate of 4.09 million, which is a small rise from September and up from last year. This shows a steady demand in the housing market.
  2. The median price for single-family homes also went up by about 2.2% compared to last year, indicating that home values are on the rise.
  3. Analysts suggest that the market's estimate of the neutral interest rate, known as R*, is around 1.5%. This estimate aligns well with several economic models, showing a consistent outlook.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 16 Dec 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Mortgages Interest Rates Home Prices Rents Employment
  1. Housing inventory has risen sharply toward pre-pandemic levels while existing-home sales remain depressed, which is putting downward pressure on prices.
  2. Lower mortgage rates have boosted purchase mortgage applications, but rising unemployment (around 4.6%) and weak sales mean those applications haven't yet translated into substantially more closings.
  3. Price indexes show only modest year-over-year gains (about 1–2%), with appreciation steadily slowing and reported data lagging earlier market moves.

What is financial leverage?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 139 implied HN points • 13 Jul 23
💰 Finance Investing Credit Debt Risk management Market Analysis
  1. Financial leverage is when you borrow money to invest, potentially increasing both your profits and risks. It's like using a loan to buy a house, where you hope the value rises higher than what you owe.
  2. Different people and companies use leverage for various reasons, like individuals buying homes, companies expanding operations, or investors trying to make bigger profits in the stock market. But with the chance of higher gains comes the risk of bigger losses.
  3. The financial leverage ratio helps assess how much debt a company uses compared to its own money. A high ratio can mean a company is at risk if it can't pay back its debts, while a low ratio might suggest it's in a safer position.

Networked Conviction 001

Investing 101 • 4 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
💰 Finance Investing Markets Portfolio Personal Finance Venture Wealth Building
  1. Publishing weekly builds a habit and keeps you focused on consistency instead of chasing perfection.
  2. Having paying readers creates accountability and pushes the writer to produce more serious, unfiltered research and thinking.
  3. The newsletter serves three purposes: portfolio updates, Requests For Startups, and generating investing ideas, lessons, and frameworks.

Drawdowns Will Happen

Spilled Coffee • 48 implied HN points • 23 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Risk management Economic Indicators
  1. Drawdowns in investments are inevitable, meaning at some point, your portfolio will likely drop in value. This happens to every investor, so be ready for it.
  2. Long-term investing often includes dealing with painful drawdowns, which can test your patience and confidence in your strategy. It's important to not allow fear to make you question your decisions during these times.
  3. To prepare for drawdowns, have cash on hand, understand your investment timeline, and base your decisions on how much risk you can handle. Remember, volatility is a normal part of investing.

WSJ Editorial Cites My Writings on BOJ Dilemma

Japan Economy Watch • 179 implied HN points • 18 Jan 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Economics Financial Markets
  1. The Bank of Japan decided to maintain its monetary policy which initially impacted the currency exchange rate and bond yields.
  2. An editorial in the Wall Street Journal referenced writings by Richard Katz concerning the BOJ policy, shedding light on the ongoing discussions.
  3. Richard Katz had a letter to the editor published in response to an op-ed about BOJ policy, showcasing differing opinions and contributing to the dialogue.

The McDonald's theory of why everyone thinks the economy sucks

Silver Bulletin • 438 implied HN points • 27 Nov 23
💰 Finance Economy Consumer spending Inflation Marketing Delivery Services
  1. Americans are spending more money overall, not just paying higher prices due to inflation.
  2. Fast food chains are using strategies like price increases, marketing, and delivery to make customers spend more.
  3. Consumer spending is increasing faster than inflation, impacting people's perceptions about the economy.

Is Yen’s Decline Over?

Japan Economy Watch • 299 implied HN points • 29 Jul 22
💰 Finance Currency Exchange Interest Rates Inflation Central Bank Market Trends
  1. Traders in currency and bond markets lost big on bets about the weakening yen and rising US interest rates, impacting the yen's value.
  2. The US Federal Reserve's quick actions against inflation caused a change in interest rate outlook, leading to a significant drop in US treasury bond rates.
  3. Market sentiment shifted due to the revised expectations of lower interest rates set by the US Federal Reserve, impacting traders' future predictions.

My Investing Philosophy

Spilled Coffee • 124 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Portfolio Management Personal Finance Retirement planning
  1. Reading investment books helped shape my investing strategy over time. It's important to learn from different sources and experiences.
  2. I consistently invest in an S&P 500 index fund every month. This approach has helped me stay focused on long-term growth without getting caught up in market fluctuations.
  3. Having a high conviction strategy means holding onto a few strong stocks instead of constantly buying and selling. Patience has often led to better investment outcomes for me.

The Bear Cave #159

The Bear Cave • 699 implied HN points • 05 Mar 23
💰 Finance Reports Resignations Tweets
  1. New activist reports highlight financial discrepancies in different companies.
  2. Recent resignations of notable executives in various organizations.
  3. Featured tweets discussing potential issues in different companies and industries.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in June; Up 2.0% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 31 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Investment Housing
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index dropped by 0.20% month-over-month in June, showing a consistent decline over the last few months. This suggests that house prices are under pressure right now.
  2. Year-over-year, the index is up 2.0%, but this is a decrease from 2.3% in May, indicating that the growth rate is slowing down.
  3. Punta Gorda, Florida is now the worst-performing city for house prices, with many cities, especially in Florida, experiencing significant declines from their previous highs.

What is a stock option?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 219 implied HN points • 23 Feb 23
💰 Finance Investing Markets Economics Stock Trading Personal Finance
  1. A stock option is a contract that lets you buy or sell a company's shares at a set price for a certain time. It's like having the choice to buy a piece of the company later, not right away.
  2. Vesting means you have to wait for a certain period before you can use your stock options. It helps make sure employees stay with the company and earn their reward over time.
  3. There are different terms for stock options like 'strike price' (the purchase price) and 'expiration date' (when you have to use the option by), which can seem confusing but are important to understand.

Buybacks shouldn’t matter, but they do

Klement on Investing • 5 implied HN points • 06 Jan 26
💰 Finance Corporate Finance Equities Asset allocation Valuation Investing
  1. The textbook capital-allocation theory says buybacks and dividends are equivalent in a frictionless market, so buybacks should not change share prices.
  2. In practice buybacks do move prices — the impact depends on stock volatility and the share of daily trading bought back, so small daily buybacks repeated over time can produce large cumulative price gains.
  3. Buybacks force investor rebalancing (investors sell into the buyback then need to buy to restore allocations), which pushes the market higher, making buybacks an effective tool for lifting a weak share price.

Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 129 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Debt Economic Trends Real Estate Mortgage
  1. There won't be a big drop in home prices because most people aren't selling under distress like before. Homeowners are in a better position now with more equity and low-rate mortgages.
  2. Mortgage debt is increasing, but not alarmingly. The current lending standards are stricter than during past bubbles, so it's less risky.
  3. Many new mortgages are going to borrowers with strong credit scores. This means that lending practices are healthy and borrowers are more qualified.

Inside the Affordability Crisis

Net Interest • 12 implied HN points • 21 Nov 25
💰 Finance Mortgages Real Estate Banking Credit Regulation Housing
  1. The US mortgage market has materially shrunk relative to the economy and housing wealth because the big refinancing boom ended once rates rose, removing a huge source of mortgage flow.
  2. New mortgage activity is now driven by purchases, but investors and lenders are very risk averse and credit standards plus regulatory costs have tightened, so many buyers get denied or face pricier loans.
  3. High home prices combined with much higher mortgage rates have made moving and first-time buying unaffordable for many, raising the average buyer age and slowing loan growth for banks and originators.

Stock Talk

Jon’s Newsletter • 39 implied HN points • 24 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stocks Economic Analysis Wealth Management
  1. Berkshire Hathaway has $167.6 billion in cash but is finding it hard to make deals because prices are high. Higher interest rates are easing some buying pressure though.
  2. Intuitive Machines recently had a successful moon landing, causing its stock to go up. Analysts think it might rise even more as it finds its footing in the market.
  3. Nvidia is doing really well, and analysts believe Microsoft and Apple could reach a combined market cap of $4 trillion soon, due to their strong focus on AI.

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q3 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 14 Nov 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Economics Debt Housing Banking
  1. The mortgage delinquency rate rose to 3.99% in Q3 2025, which is higher than both the previous quarter and last year.
  2. FHA loans are seeing the worst performance, with serious delinquencies increasing significantly compared to conventional loans.
  3. Factors like a weaker job market, increased personal debts, and rising costs are putting stress on FHA homeowners, making it harder for them to keep up with their mortgage payments.

25 Reader Questions, Answered

Spilled Coffee • 52 implied HN points • 02 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Retirement Economics Wealth
  1. The author opened up for reader questions and received a lot more than expected. It shows that people are curious and want to engage.
  2. When starting to invest, the author recommends beginning with an S&P 500 index fund. This is a smart way to ensure a solid foundation in investing.
  3. The author plans to do more Q&A posts because the response was so positive. This feedback loop is great for connecting with readers.

Quaint Oak, Hatch Hit With BaaS-Related Enforcement Actions

Fintech Business Weekly • 59 implied HN points • 01 Jun 25
💰 Finance Banking Regulation Fintech Compliance Data Privacy
  1. Quaint Oak and Hatch Bank faced enforcement actions related to compliance with anti-money laundering laws. These actions highlight ongoing regulatory scrutiny in the banking and fintech sectors.
  2. The CFPB is supporting a challenge to the open banking rule, which could lead to significant changes in how financial data is shared. This implies that fintech companies may need to brace for new regulatory hurdles.
  3. Recent data shows many households are struggling with financial obligations, like student loans and buy now, pay later payments. This indicates a broader concern about financial stability among everyday consumers.

Net worth: what is it and how to calculate it

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 199 implied HN points • 09 Mar 23
💰 Finance Personal Finance Wealth Management Financial planning Investment Strategies
  1. Net worth is the total value of what you own minus what you owe. It's like seeing how much money you have if you sold everything and paid off your bills.
  2. Calculating your net worth helps you understand your financial situation. It can show if you're actually doing well or if debt is holding you back.
  3. Regularly checking your net worth can help you track your financial progress. You want it to grow over time as you save and earn more money.

Regret Maximization Sickness

Investing 101 • 55 implied HN points • 07 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Decision-making Personal Growth Regret Hope
  1. Regret can hold us back and often leads to worse decisions. Instead of focusing on what we've done wrong, it's better to learn from mistakes and move forward.
  2. There is a lot of pressure to maximize our regrets, but we can choose to focus on hope and redemption instead. We have the option to embrace grace for ourselves and others.
  3. Investing should be about hope for the future. Dwelling on past regrets stops us from looking forward and finding new opportunities.

Investing Update: All-Time Highs Here To Stay?

Spilled Coffee • 52 implied HN points • 28 Jun 25
💰 Finance Stock Market Investment Trends Market Analysis Economic Indicators Financial forecasting
  1. The stock market, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, has reached new all-time highs, marking significant growth since April. It's surprising how quickly things have improved.
  2. Many expected a tougher market, but predictions like identifying a bottom at the S&P 500’s 4,835 mark turned out to be correct. This shows how important it is to trust analysis.
  3. History suggests that if the S&P 500 performs well in May and June, it tends to continue rising through the rest of the year. July has been particularly strong over the last decade.

Bitcoin $70K

Points And Figures • 319 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency
  1. Bitcoin hit $70k, causing excitement among investors and discussions about the potential for other cryptocurrencies to increase significantly.
  2. Including Bitcoin in a portfolio can positively impact return, volatility, and drawdown, leading more institutional investors to consider its value.
  3. Despite Bitcoin's high returns, skepticism remains about the actual value and utility of cryptocurrencies compared to traditional assets.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 12 Nov 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Investment Sales Data
  1. There are more homes available for sale now compared to last year, but the growth in inventory is slowing down. This means homebuyers have more choices but the supply isn't increasing as quickly as before.
  2. Despite more listings, sales of existing homes are down compared to previous years, and home prices are under pressure. This suggests buyers might find some great deals, but sellers could face challenges.
  3. New homebuilders are struggling but not in a crisis like before. They have unsold homes and are lowering prices, trying to compete with the growing number of existing homes on the market.

Announcing Breakout by Philo.

Philoinvestor • 58 implied HN points • 23 Dec 23
💰 Finance Markets Trades Analysis Subscription
  1. Breakout by Philo is a new sub-newsletter analyzing markets and trade setups from a technical perspective.
  2. The goal of Breakout is to listen to markets intelligently without predicting outcomes.
  3. Breakout is included in the Philoinvestor subscription with no additional charge and comes with a 20% discount for the first year.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 11 Nov 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory Analysis Regional Analysis
  1. In October, home sales rose slightly by 0.4% compared to last year, while last month they were up 7.6%. This shows a slow down in the market.
  2. New listings of homes for sale increased by 4% from last year, but they are still lower than what they were in 2019.
  3. Active inventory of homes is up 18.1% compared to last year, indicating more options for buyers, though the situation varies by region.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2025-01-13 Mo

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 115 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Markets Investments Policy Insurance
  1. Understanding Economic Issues: The text discusses the idea that many problems in society are linked to economic misunderstandings and a lack of effective communication in the management of public services. It highlights the need for better systems to gather and process information for effective governance.
  2. The Role of Government: It emphasizes that a government's primary job isn't just to keep people safe, but to empower them and solve crises effectively. Officials should focus on actual disaster management rather than just maintaining the appearance of control.
  3. Challenges of Modern Technology: There is a critique of how tech companies like Facebook are operating without a long-term vision, which affects user experiences negatively. The discussion invites us to think about how technology can be used to improve our understanding and utilization of information.

What Kishida Should Have Done On Wages, Taxes

Japan Economy Watch • 299 implied HN points • 15 Jun 22
💰 Finance Economy Taxes Income Distribution Corporations
  1. Stagnant incomes in Japan are primarily due to the gap between corporate and household incomes, with corporations hoarding profits instead of reinvesting in the economy through wage hikes, investment, or taxes.
  2. The failure of corporations to fulfill promises of raising wages after receiving tax cuts highlights the need for better enforcement of existing laws mandating equal pay and potential increases in the minimum wage to improve living standards and consumer demand.
  3. Rolling back corporate tax cuts and using resulting revenue gains to reduce consumption tax could lead to a fairer income distribution between companies and households, addressing the imbalance in income growth and stimulating economic growth.

November ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in October, Up 0.9% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 10 Nov 25
💰 Finance Home Prices
  1. Refinancing is becoming easier for many homeowners, with more people qualifying for it as mortgage rates drop. About 4.1 million homeowners could save money by refinancing their loans right now.
  2. Home prices have risen by 0.9% in the past year, suggesting that affordability is improving. This marks a change after several months of slower price growth.
  3. A small increase in negative equity is being seen, especially in areas like Cape Coral, Florida, where some homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. However, other markets are showing strong home price stability.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Mortgage Rates Local Markets Sales trends Inventory Levels
  1. Home sales in early-reporting markets fell sharply year‑over‑year (around 10.8%), though seasonally adjusted national figures may show only a small decline or be roughly flat because of seasonal factors and one fewer working day.
  2. New listings were down year‑over‑year (about 3.5%) and remain well below pre‑pandemic activity, roughly 21% lower than October 2019.
  3. Active inventory rose about 19.4% year‑over‑year, but there are large regional differences — some markets like Denver are up sharply while others like San Diego are down.