The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Price Theory and the Price Level

Economic Forces • 6 implied HN points • 11 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Money Supply Macroeconomics Measurement
  1. Measuring the price level requires price theory because common price indexes are just approximate constructs and can systematically mis-measure the theoretical concept.
  2. The correct price-level measure is the money cost of a constant-utility bundle, so weights should adjust as consumers substitute and as future/asset prices matter; fixed-weight indexes and the exclusion of asset prices produce substitution bias and other errors.
  3. Those measurement flaws make it harder to test theories of price-level determination and can mislead policymakers, causing noisy empirical results and potential policy mistakes.

One more IPO for the road

Alex's Personal Blog • 98 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Startups Market Trends IPOs Technology
  1. WeRide and Pony.AI are two self-driving companies going public after some ups and downs in their stock prices. WeRide's stock is doing okay since listing, while Pony.AI is also gearing up for its IPO.
  2. Investors are showing strong interest in these companies because they focus on the growing robotaxi market in China. People want to invest directly in self-driving ventures instead of just betting on big companies like Alphabet.
  3. Both companies have potential for growth and are attracting capital to expand their services. This excitement around self-driving technology might lead to significant developments in the future.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.7% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators House Prices Inflation
  1. Inflation-adjusted house prices are currently 1.7% below their peak in 2022, meaning they have slightly decreased recently.
  2. When considering the price-to-rent ratio, this is also 8.8% lower than it was at the peak last year, indicating changes in housing affordability.
  3. Overall, while house prices are historically high, they remain about 10.9% above the peak levels from the previous housing bubble.

How does a 63% premium sound?

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Mergers & Acquisitions Corporate Finance Economic Policy
  1. Prosus is buying Just Eat for $4.3 billion, which is a huge 63% more than what it was worth before the deal. This shows a big jump in value but raises some questions among investors.
  2. Just Eat's growth has slowed down recently, with a slight drop in global revenue. This makes some people think the deal might not be a good bargain for Prosus.
  3. The Christian Democratic Union in Germany has won a recent election and plans to lower taxes and cut regulations. They're also focusing on energy policies and digital innovation, which could reshape Germany's economy.

¥/$ May Be Heading to ¥125

Japan Economy Watch • 239 implied HN points • 24 Mar 22
💰 Finance Currency Economy Trade Interest Rates Inflation
  1. The yen may be heading towards ¥125, which would be its weakest level in 20 years, mainly due to factors like interest rate gaps between US and Japan.
  2. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply chain disruptions are contributing to yen weakening, despite historical perceptions of yen as a safe-haven currency during crises.
  3. Japan's shift from trade surpluses to deficits impacts its currency, and a weak yen may no longer be seen as entirely beneficial, especially if oil prices keep rising.
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Housing Starts Increased to 1.321 million Annual Rate in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 18 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic data Construction Housing
  1. In June, housing starts were at an annual rate of 1.321 million, which is a slight increase from May. This suggests a growing construction activity but remains lower compared to June 2024.
  2. Single-family housing starts dropped 4.6% from May, while multi-family housing saw a significant year-over-year increase. This indicates a shift in the types of units being built.
  3. Overall, total housing starts are down 0.5% compared to last year, reflecting broader trends in the housing market, especially with single-family units declining while multi-family units grow.

Gold Hits $3,400 Because Everything Is Awesome...Except Literally Everything

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 27 implied HN points • 23 Jul 25
💰 Finance Markets Investing Economics Commodities Monetary Policy
  1. Gold prices have risen significantly, signaling that the market is more unstable than it appears. It's a sign that people are starting to worry about the financial system.
  2. Even as the Fed lowers interest rates, bond yields are still going up, showing that the bond market is not reacting positively to current policies. This suggests there's a disconnect between what policymakers want and what's actually happening.
  3. Despite rising stock prices, many consumers are not financially healthy, often relying on credit to make everyday purchases. This points to a bigger issue beneath the surface of the economy.

Homebuilder Earnings

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Investments Economics Market Trends Real Estate
  1. Homebuilder earnings give insights into the health of the housing market. They can show how well builders are doing right now.
  2. Tracking these earnings can help predict future trends in home prices and availability. It’s important for buyers and investors to know what's happening in the market.
  3. Understanding homebuilder performance can help people make better decisions about buying or selling homes. It helps everyone stay informed.

Investing Update: Any Fuel Left In This Rally?

Spilled Coffee • 28 implied HN points • 19 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Economic Indicators Portfolio Management
  1. The stock market is doing really well, with the S&P 500 reaching new highs and showing significant growth this year.
  2. Inflation rates are stable, with recent numbers coming in lower than expected, which is a positive sign for the economy.
  3. There's a lot of interest in tech stocks that have lagged behind lately, and people are paying close attention to ETF investments, especially in crypto.

The Fed left rates steady as expected at 5.50%, stocks and gold at all-time highs

Global Markets Investor • 19 implied HN points • 21 Mar 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Market Reaction
  1. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at 5.50% and foresees 3 cuts in 2024. First cut likely in June despite some inflation increase.
  2. The Fed plans to slow down the balance sheet reduction pace in the upcoming year, affecting market movements positively.
  3. Market reaction to the Fed's decisions saw all-time highs for stocks and gold, with bonds and cryptocurrencies rallying, and a drop in US dollar and VIX index volatility.

The Return of Private Miners as Halving Approaches

Miner Weekly • 19 implied HN points • 21 Mar 24
💰 Finance Mining Bitcoin Markets Companies Regulation
  1. Publicly traded mining companies are progressively mining less of Bitcoin's rewards, indicating a potential return of private miners.
  2. Since bitcoin's hashprice rebound, even older mining machines like M21S could turn a profit at certain energy rates, leading to an uptick in private mining activity before the upcoming halving.
  3. With the halving approaching, there may be a correction in hashrate levels post-halving, as older generation equipment is expected to phase out unless there's a significant increase in bitcoin's hashprice.

Zen and the Art of CBDC Analysis (Part 2)

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 240 implied HN points • 07 Dec 23
💰 Finance Digital Currency Monetary System Central Banking Financial Technology Global Economy
  1. Innovation trends are often blindly followed in mainstream scenes, driven by systemic forces.
  2. The CBDC debate is influenced by the inertia of the global capitalist system and the push towards automation.
  3. CBDC discussions involve various justifications like financial inclusion, cross-border payments, and adapting to the 'spirit of the times.'

Investing Update: A Rotation Is Underway

Spilled Coffee • 68 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Stock Performance Economic Trends Sentiment Analysis
  1. All major stock indexes ended the week down, showing a shift in market sentiment. This can indicate a possible change in the current bull market.
  2. Despite the recent downturn, some key stocks like Nvidia are bouncing back, and the overall market remains strong as the S&P 500 is near its all-time high.
  3. Historically, February is known for being a tough month for stock performance, especially after Valentine’s Day, which could be a concern for investors.

Asset management is not a meritocracy

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 05 Jan 26
💰 Finance Asset management Compensation Diversity Career progression Labor Market
  1. Asset management is not a meritocracy: even when fund performance and asset gathering are easy to measure, pay and promotions often don’t follow actual results.
  2. Female and minority fund managers deliver similar performance and flows as their peers but earn far less — roughly 27% less for women, 20% less for minorities, and about 44% less for minority women — and their wage growth over time is weaker.
  3. Women and minority managers are more likely to be laid off and less likely to be promoted (for example, women ~1.7% and Asian managers ~2.4% less likely to be promoted), showing persistent unconscious bias and a need for stronger DEI action.

We've Already Defaulted

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 30 implied HN points • 05 Jul 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Investment Strategies
  1. Government spending is increasing rapidly, and there's a constant cycle of debt without real change. Politicians often promise to cut deficits but end up spending more.
  2. People are finally understanding inflation as they feel its impact at grocery stores. This awareness is prompting more conversations about money and economic policies.
  3. The bond market is crucial to watch for signs of financial health. It's important to pay attention to its trends instead of just focusing on stocks.

What if there's no U.S. recession?

Jon’s Newsletter • 59 implied HN points • 05 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy Investing Banking Market Trends Recession
  1. Bank of America has changed its prediction and now believes the U.S. might not face a recession. This change happened after positive statements from the Federal Reserve about the economy.
  2. Despite rising interest rates, the economy has been doing well with job growth and spending in new areas like AI and renewable energy.
  3. Historically, when there wasn't a recession after rate hikes, the stock market usually performed better, suggesting a positive outlook for investors.

Nvidia: Better than Dreamed

Mule’s Musings • 295 implied HN points • 24 Aug 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Earnings Report Technology Industry Market Analysis
  1. Nvidia exceeded expectations with its Q2 earnings, surpassing revenue and EPS estimates.
  2. There is uncertainty about the sustainability of Nvidia's growth due to potential overordering and demand shifts.
  3. Nvidia's competitive advantage lies in its architecture, installed base, reach, and rapid engineering, positioning them as a dominant force in the tech ecosystem.

Walk Your Talk

do clouds feel vertigo? • 1 HN point • 31 Aug 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Economic Trends Investment Strategies Behavioral Finance Risk management
  1. Navigating emotions in finance is tough. Just like a story, the market has ups and downs, often driven by fear and greed.
  2. Understanding market patterns can help you make better choices. Key events, like earnings reports, can change how stocks perform quickly.
  3. It's smart to think about who benefits from market movements. Often, the loudest voices can mislead you, so keep a clear perspective.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 220 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economy
  1. The overview provides a snapshot of the current housing market including sales, prices, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 9.1% year-over-year in December of 2023.
  3. Seasonally, December and January are weaker months for new listings, but it's expected that new listings may be up year-over-year in 2024.

Wang Yongli clarifies China's issuance of USD-denominated Sovereign Bonds in Saudi Arabia

Pekingnology • 83 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
💰 Finance International Finance Economic strategy Public Debt
  1. China recently issued its first US dollar sovereign bonds in Saudi Arabia, which was very successful and attracted lots of international interest. This shows that global investors trust China's creditworthiness.
  2. There has been some exaggerated talk on social media claiming this bond issuance is a big blow to the US dollar. However, these claims are misleading and don't reflect the usual practice of governments issuing bonds in various currencies.
  3. Wang Yongli, a financial expert, emphasized that the bond issuance does not aim to disrupt the US currency or its economy. It's more about China's normal efforts to raise funds in international markets.

The Bond Canary In The "Big Beautiful" Coal Mine

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 30 implied HN points • 29 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Bonds Investment Economic Policy
  1. The U.S. bond market is important to watch, especially after major fiscal changes like Trump's new infrastructure package. It can show signs of how the economy is doing.
  2. Fiscal stimulus packages, like the 'Big Beautiful Bill', can impact the bond market's performance and investor confidence.
  3. Keeping an eye on bond trends is useful for understanding economic health and potential future changes in the financial landscape.

Concerns Brewing?

Spilled Coffee • 72 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Mortgage Stock Market Labor Market Inflation
  1. Currently, housing is facing serious issues with high mortgage rates, making it a tough market for buyers. The demand for mortgages has dropped to its lowest level in over a decade.
  2. Home construction is slowing down, with builder inventories at a high level not seen since the 2008 housing bubble. This can have a big impact on the job market in construction.
  3. Worries are also rising in the stock market and labor market, indicating that many important sectors are feeling pressure right now.

Investing Update: 5 Stocks For The 2nd Half

Spilled Coffee • 28 implied HN points • 12 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Stock Trends Economic Indicators
  1. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have both risen over 6% this year, showing a strong market trend. This means that many investors are feeling positive about their stocks.
  2. Recent data indicates a bullish outlook, with higher levels of risk-on sentiment. This suggests that investors are more willing to take risks in the stock market right now.
  3. Historically, when the S&P 500 rises 5-10% by mid-year, the second half of the year tends to be strong. This gives investors a reason to feel confident going forward.

Do you want to pay startup prices for public companies?

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Earnings Public Companies Venture Capital
  1. Palantir's stock has skyrocketed, making it the most expensive on the S&P 500. This raises questions about whether its high valuation is justified based on its earnings.
  2. The stock market is behaving irrationally, sometimes valuing companies like startups even when they are publicly traded and have slower growth forecasts.
  3. Investors should be careful with risky trades like shorting stocks because the market can stay irrational longer than you can handle.

Daily Chartbook #404

Daily Chartbook • 183 implied HN points • 19 Mar 24
💰 Finance Charts
  1. The Daily Chartbook #404 is a paid post that provides a summary of the day through 30 charts.
  2. To access the content of the post, readers need to be paid subscribers to the Daily Chartbook.
  3. The post includes links for new subscribers to easily sign up and for existing subscribers to log in.

What Can We Learn From Banking Policy In Trump’s First Term?

Fintech Business Weekly • 89 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24
💰 Finance Banking Regulation Fintech Investments Economic Policy
  1. Banking regulations during Trump's first term favored a more business-friendly and less restrictive approach, making it easier for financial innovations to flourish.
  2. Several key appointments in his administration were focused on encouraging small-dollar loans and improving access to credit for underprivileged communities.
  3. There are concerns about the transparency and accountability of banks, especially regarding how they handle customer funds during crises like bankruptcies.

Capital Gains Tax Explained

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 119 implied HN points • 02 Mar 23
💰 Finance Taxes Investments Real Estate Stock Market Financial planning
  1. Capital gains tax is what you pay when you sell an asset, like stocks or property, for more than you bought it. If you make a profit, that profit is subject to tax.
  2. There is an annual allowance for capital gains tax, meaning you can earn a certain amount from selling assets before you have to pay any tax on it. This allowance can vary by country and type of asset.
  3. There are different tax rates for short-term and long-term capital gains. Long-term gains are usually taxed at lower rates if you've held the asset for more than a year.

5 Insights From Warren Buffett’s 2023 Annual Letter

Behavioral Value Investor • 193 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Market behavior Business Analysis Economics Regulation
  1. Good long-term businesses are harder to find than you think. Predicting long-term winners isn't easy, and financial forecasts often miss the mark. Practice humility in investing and be ready to adjust your thesis.
  2. Avoid dealing with dishonest individuals. It's difficult to spot insincerity, and once dishonesty is detected, it's best to move on immediately.
  3. Markets are still prone to irrational behavior. Human nature hasn't changed, and rapid information dissemination can lead to herd mentality and market inefficiencies. Manic behavior in markets is here to stay.

Investment Manual: Is EPS the key to stock market investing ?

All Things Finance • 19 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market
  1. The article discusses the importance of Earnings per Share (EPS) in stock market investing, using a pizza analogy.
  2. It encourages readers to subscribe to 'All Things Finance' for more easy-to-understand guides on investing and become a pro while enjoying the occasional pizza night.
  3. The post emphasizes the significance of understanding key concepts in investing to navigate the complex world of the stock market effectively.

On Crashing In The Absence Of An Actual Market

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 23 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Economics Stock Market Trading
  1. The stock market is currently driven by factors like meme stocks and options trading, which might not reflect real market demand. This means we might not have had a genuine buyer in a long time.
  2. Meme stocks are becoming popular again, but their price rises often have no real basis in company performance. This shows a serious issue in how the market currently works.
  3. There are significant risks in the market due to the reliance on passive buying and options gamma. If these trends reverse, it could lead to a major market crash.

SBF is a fraud. But he was never the problem [Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 79 implied HN points • 24 Dec 22
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Fraud Scams Social media Investing
  1. The Crypto Industry is plagued by frauds like SBF, but the root problem runs much deeper and extends beyond just cryptocurrencies.
  2. Mainstream media plays a significant role in perpetuating misinformation and misleading narratives, contributing to the success of individuals like SBF.
  3. To protect oneself from falling for scams, it's essential to critically evaluate products, look beyond social proof, and consider the utility and legitimacy of investment opportunities.

Daily Chartbook #402

Daily Chartbook • 183 implied HN points • 15 Mar 24
💰 Finance Charts Subscription
  1. Daily Chartbook #402 provides a daily summary of 30 charts for subscribers to catch up on.
  2. The post is for paid subscribers only, with an option to subscribe to access the content.
  3. There is a specific link provided for existing paid subscribers to sign in and view the content.

Dig Deep into Stock Markets: A Humorous take on Dividend Yield - Part 2

All Things Finance • 19 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. The post discusses interpreting Dividend Yield in stock markets in a humorous way, making learning about investing more fun and engaging.
  2. The post encourages subscribing to 'All Things Finance' for easy-to-understand guides on investing, promising to help readers become investment pros while still enjoying life's pleasures like pizza nights.
  3. The post emphasizes not missing out on the latest content by hitting the subscribe button to stay updated on informative posts about investing.

Dig Deep into Stock Markets: A Humorous take on Dividend Yield

All Things Finance • 19 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💰 Finance Stock Markets Investing Guides
  1. The post discusses learning to interpret Dividend Yield in a humorous way to make stock market concepts more engaging.
  2. Consider subscribing to **All Things Finance** for fun and easy-to-understand guides to investing that can help you become a pro and make money.
  3. The content promises practical knowledge on investing while still highlighting the importance of enjoying life, like having pizza nights.