The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing supply Sales Data
  1. New home sales dropped to an annual rate of 657,000 in January, marking a decline from previous months. This shows a slowdown in the housing market compared to last year.
  2. The average price of new homes has decreased by 5.8% from its highest point due to changes in what types of homes are selling.
  3. There is a high inventory of homes available, with a supply of 9 months, which is more than the usual range of 4 to 6 months. This indicates more choices for buyers but also suggests a slower market.

ServiceTitan files to go public, Substack-o-nomics and please don't scratch my Bakkt

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Venture Capital Public Companies Tech Sector
  1. ServiceTitan is planning to go public, targeting a large market in the trades with software and fintech services. This shows there's strong potential for growth in this essential industry.
  2. The company has attracted significant investment from top venture capital firms, indicating confidence in its business model and future profitability.
  3. Going public will benefit not only ServiceTitan but also the investors, providing them with returns after a long wait for exits.
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California Home Sales "Sputter" in May; 4th Look at Local Markets

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 20 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory Analysis Economic Factors
  1. California home sales decreased for the third month in a row, highlighting reduced buyer confidence due to high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty.
  2. Active home inventory reached a 67-month high, with a significant year-over-year increase in available listings, suggesting more choices for buyers.
  3. Despite a minor decline in home prices, the market is still facing challenges, with many areas reporting fewer homes sold compared to previous years.

Trade Ideas for 2025

The Last Bear Standing • 53 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Trading Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. There are 17 stock ideas for 2025 that include 10 buying opportunities and 4 stocks to sell. These ideas focus on different industries and market trends.
  2. The author had success in the past year by betting on precious metals and cryptocurrencies. This year, the focus shifts entirely to equity markets.
  3. The listed stocks cover various topics like space expansion, energy storage, and datacenter needs, showing a diverse range for potential investment.

Investing Update: Insiders & Hedge Funds Bearish?

Spilled Coffee • 48 implied HN points • 01 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Hedge Funds Stock Performance Economic Trends
  1. January showed positive trends for the Dow, indicating a potentially good year for the market. The Dow was up 4.7%, a promising start compared to the other indexes.
  2. Many S&P 500 stocks are reaching new highs, suggesting a strong market performance. This is the highest level since last November, which could be a positive sign.
  3. Investors are shifting money into U.S. equities, with noticeable inflows in financials and consumer cyclical sectors. This trend indicates growing confidence in these areas.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Markets Sales Inventory Economics
  1. In December, closed home sales saw an 18.1% increase from the previous year, indicating a positive trend in some local markets.
  2. There was a significant jump in active housing inventory, up 27.2% compared to last year, with more homes available for buyers.
  3. New listings also grew by 11.8% year-over-year, but overall levels are still historically low compared to 2019.

Inside the Private Equity Options Factory

Lewis Enterprises • 19 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Private Equity Financialization Asset management Investment Returns Institutional Investors
  1. GP Stakes investing is a late-cycle phenomenon that uses structures to enhance private equity outcomes.
  2. Financial transactions are often abstractions used for hedging, speculating, or leveraging capital.
  3. Private equity has evolved to create exotic forms of leverage and financial assets, impacting capital allocation.

Housing Market Index and Single Family Starts

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 17 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Economic Indicators
  1. Builder sentiment in the housing market is low, reaching one of the lowest levels since 2012. This means builders are feeling less confident about selling new homes.
  2. There has been a noticeable increase in price incentives from builders as the housing market slows down. This suggests they are trying to attract buyers who might be hesitant.
  3. Overall, the housing market is softening, which could impact future construction and development plans.

October 2024 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Economic Trends Investment Housing Data
  1. Home construction costs have risen over time, but the price hikes for new homes are affected more by land costs and less by construction costs. This means that it's getting harder for average families to afford homes, as they are paying more for existing homes due to limited supply.
  2. In higher-end markets, the quality and size of new homes aren’t keeping up with rising incomes. Despite inflation, average people are struggling more because the character of new homes is changing despite high land values.
  3. The overall housing market reflects different trends for rich and average buyers. Wealthier buyers usually track new home costs, while average buyers feel the squeeze from existing home prices influenced by constrained supply.

💥New Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Filing - GOL Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes S.A.💥

PETITION • 19 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
💰 Finance Bankruptcy Airlines Debt Liquidity Investment
  1. GOL Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes S.A. filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy with a $950 million DIP commitment.
  2. The airline's growth played a significant role in Brazil's air travel expansion but faced challenges with its fleet, especially with Boeing 737 models.
  3. To address financial struggles, GOL made efforts to secure liquidity, negotiate leases, and handle outstanding obligations.

Swiggy's IPO inches closer to trading, and is the stock market dangerously overvalued?

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Markets Economics IPO Valuation
  1. Swiggy's IPO is almost finished and it's expected to have a very high valuation. Many people are excited about it, but there are some concerns too.
  2. The stock market might be overvalued right now, which could be risky for investors. It's important to stay informed about the market trends.
  3. There are various economic factors influencing the market, like changes in inflation and company performance. Keeping an eye on these factors can help investors make better decisions.

Economic Calendar for the Week of November 10th, 2024

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Economic Events Earnings Reports Investment Strategies Global Economics
  1. The stock market went up after Trump's election, as investors seem unsure if he will actually change global trade and deport many people.
  2. This week is important for tech earnings, with companies like Spotify and Disney sharing their financial results.
  3. Keep an eye on economic events like consumer confidence and inflation rates in different countries throughout the week.

3 Misconceptions About US Debt: Lyn Alden

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 23 Jun 25
💰 Finance Debt Management Economic Policy Investment strategy Government finance Monetary Policy
  1. The US debt isn't just owed to ourselves; it includes many foreign and domestic entities. Splitting the debt equally isn't straightforward since different people hold different amounts.
  2. Governments usually don't default on debts in their own currency, but they can devalue the currency instead. This can impact bondholders and taxpayers in different ways.
  3. A selective default on some debt holders, like foreign entities or the Federal Reserve, could create complicated consequences, potentially damaging trust in US financial stability.

Will all this AI investment pay off?

How the Hell • 98 implied HN points • 30 Jun 24
💰 Finance Investments AI Economics Market Trends Technology
  1. There's a big debate about whether the money being spent on AI will actually lead to good returns. Some think it's like the dotcom bubble, where lots of investments were made without solid profits.
  2. For AI investments to really pay off, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) needs to be created, and it must come from the companies that investors are backing today. If it comes from new, unseen companies, current investors might not benefit.
  3. Many things need to align for investors to make money from AGI, like avoiding human extinction and ensuring that money still means something in a future shaped by AGI. The odds of everything working out perfectly are pretty low.

Why Gold At $10,000 Is Possible

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Economics Market Trends Monetary Policy Commodities
  1. We might be in a situation called a 'Crack-Up Boom,' where people lose faith in money and rush to buy real goods. This can lead to high inflation or even a total currency collapse.
  2. The stock market seems to be in an 'Everything Bubble,' with asset prices being higher than they should be. While some indicators suggest it's a bubble, it can still get bigger before it bursts.
  3. Investing in gold and Bitcoin is seen as a safe bet during uncertain times, and there are signs suggesting gold prices could go much higher than they are now.

Americans Are In Love With Stocks

Spilled Coffee • 52 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Financial Literacy Retirement planning Stock Market
  1. The percentage of American households investing in stocks is at an all-time high, showing strong interest in the stock market. Many people now understand how important it is to invest for their future.
  2. Over half of Americans believe stock prices will keep rising. This can be seen as optimistic, but some worry it's a sign that the market may soon turn downward.
  3. Educational efforts around investing have improved, making it easier for people to understand the importance of stocks. This is helping more individuals make informed investment decisions.

Why Applovin is the best-performing tech stock of the year

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Earnings Stocks Tech Market Trends
  1. Applovin's stock has skyrocketed this year, with more than a 500% increase thanks to strong earnings and revenue growth.
  2. The company's transition to a focus on advertising is paying off, driven by a machine-learning model called AXON that improves ad targeting.
  3. Applovin has made significant investments in technology and infrastructure, which is helping them stay ahead in the competitive market.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis Investment Housing Market
  1. The Case-Shiller National House Price Index increased by 3.8% year-over-year in November, indicating rising home prices. This is a good sign for homeowners as it shows property values are generally going up.
  2. House prices rose by 0.3% in November according to the FHFA index, showing a slower growth rate compared to previous years. It suggests that higher mortgage rates might be affecting buyers' demand.
  3. New York had the highest annual home price increase at 7.3%, while Tampa saw a decline of 0.4%. Different regions are experiencing varying trends in home price changes.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Interest Rates Economic Indicators Home Sales
  1. Existing home sales are predicted to be around 4.09 million for January, showing a slight drop from December but an increase from last year.
  2. The average sale price for homes has risen about 5% compared to a year ago, indicating a continuing trend in increasing home values.
  3. The expected real interest rates have returned to levels similar to before the financial crisis, suggesting a more stable economic outlook.

Links - 01/29/2024

Value Investing World • 19 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Investors can benefit from making decisions with imperfect knowledge and by taking risks.
  2. Spending too much time researching can cause investors to miss out on great opportunities.
  3. Buying at low prices can offer a margin of safety, even with incomplete information.

October 2024 Inflation and Housing

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
💰 Finance Inflation Housing Monetary Policy Economic Trends
  1. Inflation is returning to a 2% trend, which is good news, but this isn't widely reported. This trend is important for future monetary policy decisions.
  2. Rent inflation is finally slowing down, and maintaining consistent home prices is helping this situation. Focusing on general inflation rather than rent can help stabilize the economy.
  3. Excessive rent inflation has been controlled, but there should be a focus on building more homes over the next decade to further improve housing affordability.

Federal Reserve Policymakers Meet This Week and Ask: “Are We There Yet?”

The People's Economist with Anthony Chan • 19 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Monetary Policy Inflation GDP History
  1. The Federal Reserve may lower policy rates due to a significant difference between core PCE and core CPI.
  2. The Fed might not need to act as the economy is thriving with high growth rates.
  3. Fed's caution is influenced by past inflation battles and current inflation metrics compared to historical data.

Revisiting A Bull Case That Could Just Be Getting Started

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 17 implied HN points • 28 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Analysis Investment Strategies Stock Market
  1. The current bull market is showing strong signs of continuing. Investors are optimistic about further growth.
  2. One particular investor believes that this is just the beginning of the market's upward trend.
  3. This market is currently outperforming major indexes like the S&P 500, indicating a healthy investment climate.

The return of tech stocks.

Jon’s Newsletter • 79 implied HN points • 05 Feb 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Economic Trends Tech Sector Business Analysis
  1. Tech stocks are making a comeback in 2023, with big gains in the NASDAQ 100 index.
  2. Many tech companies are focusing on cost-cutting and efficiency to improve their performance despite challenges like layoffs.
  3. The excitement around AI, especially with developments like ChatGPT, is driving investor interest and boosting stock prices in the tech sector.

Conversation On Japan's Economic Vulnerability

Japan Economy Watch • 119 implied HN points • 08 Jul 22
💰 Finance Economy Consumption Income Savings Government spending
  1. In Japan, household income growth has shifted significantly towards relying on government transfers rather than private sector income, impacting consumer spending.
  2. The consumption share of real GDP in Japan has declined over the years, impacting economic growth and potentially leading to weaker consumption patterns.
  3. Japanese consumers have drastically reduced their saving rates, shifting towards a trend of living hand-to-mouth, which has implications on personal finances and economic stability.

Top 5 financial posts of the 4/2024 trading week

Global Markets Investor • 19 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Cryptocurrency Investment Analysis
  1. The S&P 500 ended near its highest point, driven by big Tech, while Tesla saw a significant drop. The Federal Reserve was meeting, and important tech companies like Apple and Amazon were set to report earnings.
  2. Bitcoin faced volatility after ETFs approval, dropping momentarily but stabilizing above $40,000. The future of Bitcoin's market trends remains uncertain.
  3. Chinese stocks have not performed well in the past decade, with the US stock market value surpassing China and Hong Kong combined. Despite looking cheap, investing in China carries significant risk during a potential bear market.

Enough: The Forgotten Lesson of Ben Graham's Life

Neckar’s Notes • 264 implied HN points • 04 Mar 23
💰 Finance Investing Wealth Education Philosophy Business
  1. Ben Graham's success was largely due to his investment in GEICO, not just deep value stocks.
  2. Graham's approach to investing was more focused on teaching basic principles accessible to all, rather than on seeking out the best companies like GEICO.
  3. Buffett, unlike Graham, dedicated himself to the pursuit of amassing wealth through compounding capital, while Graham saw investing as just one of many interests in his life.

It’s Fed Day; who cares?

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 28 Jan 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Markets Central Banks Investing Macroeconomics
  1. A Fed rate decision may have limited impact right now because the chair is a lame duck and shifting US policy (like tariffs) makes the inflation outlook uncertain.
  2. When policy uncertainty is high, companies generally revise their inflation expectations faster and more strongly in response to rate hikes or cuts.
  3. Firms and traders who closely follow central-bank signals tend to anticipate moves and therefore adjust their inflation expectations far less, especially during periods of high uncertainty.

January 2025 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economic Trends Construction Employment Market Analysis
  1. Residential construction jobs are not increasing much and have been stable. This suggests a slow period for the construction industry.
  2. The number of new construction starts was lower this month, indicating potential challenges ahead for the housing market.
  3. Despite issues in construction, there's a lot of political noise happening, which makes the calm in construction seem strange.