The hottest Market Analysis Substack posts right now

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Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Construction Market Analysis
  1. In January, housing starts dropped to 1.366 million, which is lower than both December's figures and January 2024's. This shows a ongoing decrease in new housing construction.
  2. Single-family home construction decreased by 8.4% compared to December, which indicates a slowdown in this sector. Meanwhile, multi-family units saw a slight increase year-over-year but still faced declines month-over-month.
  3. There were significant differences in regional construction patterns, especially in the Northeast, which experienced a notable drop, likely due to weather conditions.

Country Risk: My 2024 Update

Musings on Markets • 959 implied HN points • 24 Jul 24
💰 Finance Risk Assessment Investing Market Analysis Economic Factors Global trends
  1. Investing in a country is riskier depending on its political structure, level of violence, corruption, and property rights. Democracies can be unstable, while autocracies might promise consistency but can change suddenly.
  2. External factors like reliance on a single commodity, economic growth stages, and climate change can increase a country's risk. Countries tied to one resource are vulnerable to market shifts.
  3. Understanding country-specific risk is important for businesses and investors. Different countries have different costs of capital due to their risk levels, impacting investment decisions.

GTM Benchmarks📊, Age of Unicorn Founders💰, Future of Sales with AI🤖

The VC Corner • 359 implied HN points • 25 Aug 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Sales Strategies Market Analysis
  1. GTM benchmarks are important for understanding how companies perform in the market. They help businesses know where they stand in comparison to others.
  2. The age of unicorn founders can influence the startup world. Younger founders might bring fresh ideas but can also face unique challenges.
  3. AI is shaping the future of sales. Businesses need to adapt and leverage AI tools to stay competitive and improve their sales strategies.

The Best Investing Advice

The Generalist • 760 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Venture Capital Market Analysis Decision-making
  1. Investing is all about finding great companies, not just good deals. Focus on what makes a company truly outstanding.
  2. Diversify not just across different industries, but also over time. Don't rush into investments; think long-term and consider market changes.
  3. Startups should offer something unique that stands out. Instead of competing with existing options, create a choice that reshapes the conversation.
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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Sales trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. Existing-home sales have decreased to 4.08 million in January, which is a drop of 4.9% from the previous month, but it's still a 2.0% increase compared to January 2024.
  2. The housing inventory is rising, reaching 1.18 million units, up 16.8% from last year, which shows there is more supply available than before the pandemic.
  3. Despite the drop in sales, this is the fourth consecutive month with year-over-year increases, suggesting some positive trends in the market.

Introduction to Prediction Markets

DeFi Education • 699 implied HN points • 26 Jul 24
🔮 Crypto Prediction Markets DeFi Trading Market Analysis
  1. Prediction markets let users bet on the outcomes of real-world events, like elections or interest rates, by creating and trading tokens. This allows for both speculation and hedging against risks in the financial markets.
  2. Polymarket is a leading prediction market platform that has seen rapid growth, particularly during election cycles. Users can make money by providing liquidity and taking advantage of market mispricings.
  3. Memecoins and prediction markets serve different purposes for betting on events. Prediction markets offer specific outcomes with sound pricing, while memecoins allow for uncapped upside but carry risks of fluctuations based on popularity.

Problems at The Wall Street Journal

The Bear Cave • 1399 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Stock Trading Consumer Advocacy
  1. There's concern about trading actions linked to Wall Street Journal stories. In one case, a trader made a lot of money by buying stocks right before a negative article was published.
  2. The Wall Street Journal may not have fully disclosed important information about sources in its articles. This raises questions about transparency and ethics in their reporting.
  3. Some journalists at the Wall Street Journal have connections to the companies they write about. This could lead to conflicts of interest that affect the trustworthiness of their reporting.

The Transcript Editor's Commentary

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Market Analysis Economic Trends
  1. The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates but is now signaling that they may not do it quickly again. This can be seen as a bit disappointing for the markets.
  2. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, mentioned they are not in a hurry to make more rate cuts. This message is important for those watching the economy.
  3. Overall, it seems the Fed wants to stay cautious and not rush decisions that could impact the market.

Bullish or Bearish? Market Update

DeFi Education • 939 implied HN points • 05 Jul 24
🔮 Crypto Market Analysis Trading Strategies Asset management
  1. The current market has low liquidity, which makes it risky for traders with leveraged positions. This can lead to a lot of liquidations when prices change suddenly.
  2. Recently, there was a massive amount of crypto liquidations on July 4th, the largest since the FTX incident. This shows how volatile the market can be.
  3. The post offers a market update and a detailed overview of specific sectors for subscribers. It's designed to help them understand current trends and make informed decisions.

The Bear Cave #250

The Bear Cave • 606 implied HN points • 01 Dec 24
💼 Business Finance Investing Corporate Governance Market Analysis Activism
  1. The Bear Cave focuses on finding problems in companies that are often ignored by the mainstream. This helps identify potential short selling opportunities.
  2. The publication has tracked executive resignations and has shown that many companies with leadership changes tend to underperform in the market.
  3. Over the past few years, the companies highlighted by The Bear Cave have consistently lagged behind the S&P 500, hinting at serious issues that investors should consider.

The Bear Cave #252

The Bear Cave • 419 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Corporate Governance Economic Trends
  1. There are new reports about companies experiencing accounting issues and bad loans. It's important to pay attention to these signs as they could lead to financial trouble.
  2. Many executives are resigning from their positions, which could indicate instability within those companies. If a company keeps changing leadership, it might be a bad sign for its future.
  3. Short sellers are becoming more vocal, and there are discussions about plans that could affect companies negatively. Watching how these short sellers act can give clues about company health.

Problems at TransDigm (TDG)

The Bear Cave • 699 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
💼 Business Corporate Governance Government Regulation Market Analysis
  1. TransDigm has been accused of charging extremely high prices for small aircraft parts, with markups sometimes reaching thousands of percent. This has raised concerns about potential price gouging, especially with government contracts.
  2. The incoming Department of Government Efficiency aims to address issues like waste and fraud in government spending, targeting companies like TransDigm for their pricing practices. This could lead to significant audits and potential savings for taxpayers.
  3. There is bipartisan criticism of TransDigm's pricing strategies, suggesting that their business model relies on acquiring sole-source suppliers and drastically increasing prices at the expense of the government and taxpayers.

How Many Homes Do We Need?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 358 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Policy Market Analysis
  1. There is a huge underestimation of the housing shortage in the U.S. Many professionals are saying we need less housing than we actually do.
  2. Current data shows there are about 15 million vacant homes, but many more are needed due to population growth. Estimates suggest a shortage of at least 15 to 20 million units.
  3. Building more homes can help lower rents and make housing more affordable, but there's a risk that new constructions may only be rented out at higher prices, especially if ownership becomes less accessible.

January 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update and Inflation

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Inflation Economic Trends Market Analysis Real Estate
  1. Home prices changed in the past two decades, with different local and national factors affecting these trends. This means that while prices may rise overall, local conditions can vary greatly.
  2. Recent inflation numbers showed a slight increase, but it's unclear if this is just a temporary change or part of a longer trend. It's important to watch these numbers closely for a clearer picture.
  3. When looking at inflation data, excluding shelter costs gives a better understanding of general price trends, which have generally stayed close to the target rate over time.

Q&A (July 2024 pt. 2)

DeFi Education • 459 implied HN points • 27 Jul 24
🔮 Crypto Market Analysis Trends Regulation
  1. July 2024 has been a very volatile month for cryptocurrencies. Many people are looking for detailed updates on the market and different sectors.
  2. The Q&A sessions are designed to help subscribers understand the current trends and insights in the crypto market.
  3. This particular post is meant for paid subscribers who want in-depth analysis and exclusive content.

Monkey Laundering

Where's Your Ed At • 20772 implied HN points • 26 Sep 23
💼 Business Cryptocurrency Venture Capital Investing Market Analysis
  1. Investing in NFTs as a way to own unique digital assets may not guarantee value or ownership of intellectual property.
  2. Many NFT projects overpromise benefits like voting power and ownership in the company, leading to unfulfilled expectations.
  3. The NFT industry is often characterized by scams, fake transactions, and inflated values, preying on the desperation of people seeking investment opportunities.

Microarrays: What are they for?

ASeq Newsletter • 36 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
🔬 Science Biotechnology Genomics Microbiology Research Methods Market Analysis
  1. Microarrays are often seen as an alternative to sequencing, but some argue sequencing is generally a better option for many applications. It's important to consider these viewpoints when discussing the technologies.
  2. The microarray market is stable, worth around $1 billion, with platforms like Illumina's Beadarray holding a significant share. This indicates that there is still a solid demand for microarray technology.
  3. Reassessing biases about technologies like microarrays can help us understand their current relevance and future potential. It’s always a good idea to keep an open mind when evaluating scientific tools.

Investing Update: A Rotation Is Underway

Spilled Coffee • 68 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Stock Performance Economic Trends Sentiment Analysis
  1. All major stock indexes ended the week down, showing a shift in market sentiment. This can indicate a possible change in the current bull market.
  2. Despite the recent downturn, some key stocks like Nvidia are bouncing back, and the overall market remains strong as the S&P 500 is near its all-time high.
  3. Historically, February is known for being a tough month for stock performance, especially after Valentine’s Day, which could be a concern for investors.

Seven Predictions For Tech in 2024

Big Technology • 9632 implied HN points • 22 Dec 23
🕹 Technology AI Virtual reality Social media Market Analysis Autonomous Vehicles
  1. Generative AI will advance in 2024 with new capabilities like better conversation retention and reasoning.
  2. The year 2024 is predicted to be significant for mixed reality advancements, integrating AI avatars and assistants.
  3. Tech industry forecasts include Elon Musk selling X, Meta's market cap reaching $1 trillion, and NVIDIA facing increased competition.

From Numbers to Narrative: Financial Modeling for Founders 📊

The VC Corner • 579 implied HN points • 12 Jul 24
💼 Business Startups Investment Financial planning Entrepreneurship Market Analysis
  1. Financial modeling is all about telling your startup's story using numbers. It's important for getting investments and managing your business well.
  2. A solid financial model includes three main statements: the Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow Statement. These help you understand your revenue, costs, and financial position.
  3. Building a financial model starts by defining your assumptions. This helps you predict future performance and make informed decisions for your startup.

AI Bubble📉, Canva acquires Leonardo AI🎨, How to Write Cold Emails✉️

The VC Corner • 279 implied HN points • 11 Aug 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Innovation Technology Trends Market Analysis
  1. There seems to be an AI bubble, which means the excitement and investment in AI may be too high right now. It's important to be cautious and not assume growth will continue at the same rate.
  2. Canva has bought Leonardo AI, showing how big companies are integrating AI tools into their platforms to enhance creativity and productivity. This could lead to more user-friendly design solutions.
  3. Writing effective cold emails is crucial for reaching out to new contacts and building relationships. It’s all about being clear, concise, and personal in your approach.

The Bear Cave #249

The Bear Cave • 513 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
💼 Business Finance Investors Market Analysis Corporate Governance Executive Changes
  1. Multiple activist reports have raised concerns about major companies like Roblox, Oklo, and elf Beauty, suggesting issues of financial integrity and management competence. These reports could indicate potential future problems for these companies.
  2. Several key executives have recently resigned from their positions, including CEOs and CFOs from various companies. This turnover can point to instability within these organizations, potentially affecting their performance.
  3. There are ongoing investigations into companies like Zeta Global for unethical practices. Allegations of deceptive marketing and revenue manipulation highlight the importance of transparency in business.

The Bear Cave #248

The Bear Cave • 583 implied HN points • 17 Nov 24
💼 Business Finance Investing Corporate strategy Market Analysis Business Ethics
  1. Culper Research claims Zeta Global Holdings is involved in shady practices, including false data and deceptive websites to gather consumer information. They think Zeta's stock price is too high and expect it to drop soon.
  2. There have been several high-profile resignations among executives in various companies, highlighting instability in leadership. It's concerning when CFOs and CEOs leave, especially in such quick succession.
  3. Recent reports have raised concerns about financial discrepancies in VusionGroup, which may indicate larger issues within the company. The connection with a major Chinese partner raises further questions about its operations.

How to Value a Startup: Key Methods Every Investor and Founder Should Know

The VC Corner • 459 implied HN points • 19 Jul 24
💼 Business Investment Strategies Market Analysis Entrepreneurship
  1. Valuing a startup is tricky because they often lack steady revenue, so traditional methods might not work well. Founders and investors need to find alternative ways to assess a startup's worth.
  2. The valuation process combines both art and science. It's important to consider factors like the team's skills and the product's uniqueness alongside more measurable data like market trends.
  3. The Scorecard Valuation Method is a key approach to valuing startups, offering steps and examples that help make the valuation process clearer and more practical for those involved.

Loose Ends

Doomberg • 10309 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
💼 Business Finance Energy Politics Climate Market Analysis
  1. It's important for analysts to reflect on their past work to improve and learn from mistakes.
  2. Understanding the political landscape is crucial for predicting market trends, especially in energy markets.
  3. The strategy of imposing sanctions against Russia may be ineffective and could have negative consequences on the global financial system.

Mullet Capitalists

The Generalist • 620 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Investing Strategies Market Analysis
  1. Mullet Capitalism is a new trend in venture capital where firms combine a traditional business with venture investments. This means they can use their existing business to identify promising startups and invest in them.
  2. Many emerging managers in the venture space are facing tough times, and Mullet Capitalism offers a fresh approach for them to adapt and thrive. It highlights the importance of blending stable income with the potential for high returns in investments.
  3. Examples of Mullet Capitalists include recruiting firms and media companies that also invest in startups. These firms leverage their industry connections and insights to make informed investment decisions while providing valuable services.

Rent trends and multi-family construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis Investment Strategies Housing policy
  1. The rent trends in different cities show that Austin is currently performing the best among metro areas in Texas.
  2. When looking at rental prices, it's important to consider whether changes are due to short-term demand shifts or local supply issues.
  3. The Erdmann Housing Tracker provides insights into multi-family construction, which can help understanding the housing market better.

Apple v The World in Two Charts

Tim Culpan’s Position • 59 implied HN points • 12 Sep 24
💼 Business Technology Market Analysis Consumer behavior Competitive Analysis
  1. Apple is ahead of its competitors like Samsung and Xiaomi when it comes to making money from smartphone sales. Revenue is the key measure of success.
  2. The smartphone market is starting to grow again, but Apple is still the leader despite some doubts from critics.
  3. Apple's high market value shows that their business strategy is working well, even if the overall smartphone market isn’t expanding as rapidly as before.

How much capital can startups profitably eat?

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
💼 Business Startups Venture Capital Investment Trends Market Analysis Financial Performance
  1. Startups seem to have a limit on how much money they can handle, known as being 'founder constrained'. This means that there are not enough strong ideas or founders to support the cash available.
  2. There has been a drop in the success rate of startups getting further funding after their initial rounds. This is particularly true for those that started during the funding boom in 2021.
  3. Venture capital returns from funds initiated in 2021 are underperforming, likely due to an excess of companies funded without sufficient quality ideas or founders backing them.

Mr. Haltiwanger and the Austrians

Bet On It • 140 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics Entrepreneurship Market Analysis Competitiveness Labor Economics
  1. Austrian economists should pay more attention to John Haltiwanger’s research on creative destruction. His work shows how important entrepreneurial growth is to the economy.
  2. Entrepreneurs help move resources to better uses by discovering opportunities and improving efficiency. This competition helps the economy grow and evolve.
  3. Measuring how resources are reallocated can show if markets are really working well. If more productive firms gain market share, it indicates a healthy, dynamic economy.

The Bear Cave #244

The Bear Cave • 769 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
💼 Business Finance Investing Corporate Governance Market Analysis Regulation
  1. Fuzzy Panda Research raised concerns about Stride Inc, suggesting it might face serious challenges after benefiting from COVID-related funding. They believe the company is going to struggle with competition and internal issues.
  2. Recent executive resignations from companies like CVS Health and The Joint Corp signal potential instability, as these leaders leave amid significant financial downturns for their companies.
  3. A new FTC rule will make it easier for consumers to cancel subscriptions. This change aims to prevent businesses from making it too hard for people to stop payments for services they no longer want.

A Lens to Understand the Trump Tariffs

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 769 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Tariffs Trade Economics Investment Market Analysis
  1. Not all tariffs are bad; they can help boost domestic manufacturing and protect jobs. The U.S. has lost many manufacturing jobs to overseas markets, which affects both the economy and national security.
  2. Often, tariff threats are used as negotiation tools rather than actual intentions to impose tariffs. For example, Trump used the threat of tariffs to gain cooperation from other countries on unrelated issues.
  3. The bigger issue is that many countries, including China, put up barriers to U.S. products while expecting open access to American markets. Addressing these trade imbalances can be crucial for fair international trade.

The Bear Cave #245

The Bear Cave • 653 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Corporate News Regulatory issues Economic Trends
  1. New reports are raising serious concerns about several companies, including Hershey, which was found to have harmful chemicals in its products. This could impact its reputation and sales.
  2. Several high-profile executives have recently resigned from their positions at major companies, suggesting possible instability or issues within those organizations.
  3. There are calls for caution when it comes to tweeting about stocks, as public opinions and statements can significantly affect market perceptions and investments.

The Bear Cave #246

The Bear Cave • 559 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
💼 Business Finance Management Investing Corporate Governance Market Analysis
  1. Blue Orca Capital reported that Baldwin Insurance Group has been using some tricky financial practices to make their profits look better than they actually are. They claim the company has serious profitability issues.
  2. Recent leadership changes show a lot of turnover among company executives, with several CFOs and CEOs resigning or being let go. This could indicate bigger problems within those companies.
  3. There are also activist reports about Byrna Technologies, suggesting they might be exaggerating their business success. The reports claim many of their dealers don’t really exist or aren't effective.

Rising existing inventory in Texas and Florida

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Economics Investment Market Analysis Real Estate
  1. Rising home inventory in places like Texas and Florida doesn't always mean a bad market. It can show real demand or a strong market too.
  2. Many people wrongly believe that too many houses lead to market crashes, but actually, drops in demand usually cause these issues.
  3. In past downturns, like in 2008, price drops happened after demand decreased, not because of oversupply. Understanding this helps make sense of current housing trends.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Indicators Market Analysis
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same compared to last year. Recently, there's been a slight downward trend, but rents are still high compared to earlier years.
  2. The number of available rental units is increasing, leading to more options for renters. This rise in supply is helping to keep rents stable and pressures on affordability.
  3. Single-family rent growth is at its lowest in over 14 years. Even though rent increases are slowing, demand for rentals is expected to remain strong due to job and wage growth.

Trading The Shit Show: February 2025 Market Update

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 40 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Personal Finance Economic Trends Mental health
  1. The writer has been sober for 72 days, which has brought them clarity and peace. They feel that stepping back from gambling and trading has helped them focus better on their life.
  2. They are optimistic about their market predictions, having outperformed the S&P by 9% since the beginning of the year. A clear mind seems to be helping their financial outlook.
  3. New features for paid subscribers have been introduced, allowing for more direct discussions. This change aims to create a better connection with their readers.

NVIDIA: Waiting on Blackwell, and the Networking Question

Mule’s Musings • 372 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Semiconductors AI Networking Market Analysis
  1. Nvidia's recent earnings report showed lighter-than-expected guidance, meaning some investors were disappointed but it also indicates the company is stabilizing as it grows larger.
  2. The focus is now on Nvidia's new product, Blackwell, which is expected to greatly impact revenue, and there's anticipation about how successful it will be as it ramps up.
  3. Networking sales have surprisingly dropped as a percentage of revenue, even though overall networking demand is still strong, raising questions about the reasons behind this change.