The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

The Risks Still Lurking in the Banking System

Apricitas Economics • 42 implied HN points • 08 May 23
💰 Finance Banking Interest Rates Deposits Market Dynamics
  1. The American banking system is facing increased risks with several banks failing and many regional banks under pressure
  2. Market movements for surviving banks show negative excess returns, with declining valuations particularly for mid-sized regional banks
  3. Understanding rates risk in the banking system requires looking at exposure to long-term assets, especially in real estate lending, and the impact on uninsured deposits

$10 Trillion Stolen Right Under Our Noses

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 34 implied HN points • 29 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy Government spending Inflation Wealth Distribution Financial impact
  1. Over $10 trillion was recklessly spent on Covid relief, making people significantly poorer.
  2. The government's panicked spending went unnoticed by many due to the distribution method of electronic funds and stimulus checks.
  3. Inflation devalued household savings, widening the wealth gap and creating social stratification.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Markets Real Estate Home Sales Inventory Mortgage Rates
  1. The final look at local housing markets in January showed low existing home sales but an increase in new listings for the fourth month in a row.
  2. Active listings in January were up 3.0% year over year, highlighting the importance of monitoring inventory trends in the coming months.
  3. Closed sales in January saw a 3.0% increase year over year, revealing differences from sales in January 2019 and hinting at potential sales growth in February.

LTCM: 25 Years On

Net Interest • 34 implied HN points • 18 Aug 23
💰 Finance Risk management Leverage Financial Models
  1. The collapse of Long-Term Capital Management had significant implications for the finance industry.
  2. One possible reason for LTCM's downfall was overreliance on sophisticated modeling.
  3. Although LTCM had managed its leverage tightly, it still faced a perilous downfall due to a combination of factors.
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Lawler: Update on Invitation Homes Rental Trends

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 20 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Investing Economy Markets Analysis
  1. Invitation Homes focused on boosting occupancy rates in Q4 for peak leasing season, taking an aggressive stance.
  2. Renewal rates for rental properties were pushed lower than expected with renewal rate increases averaging 6.8%.
  3. Despite previous claims of pricing rentals at 'market' levels, recent data suggests that renewal rates have not followed this trend for Invitation Homes.

Investing Update: Don't Forget This Chart

Spilled Coffee • 12 implied HN points • 12 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Indicators Monetary Policy Market Analysis
  1. The S&P 500 has had a strong performance this year, with 45 new all-time highs and the best start since 2000. This means the market is doing really well right now.
  2. Despite the market's successes, only 54% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 20-day moving average. This is a bit low and worth keeping an eye on.
  3. With recent jobless claims rising more than expected, it could influence the Fed's decisions on interest rates. Many experts still believe there will be a rate cut soon.

America's Missing Empty Homes

Apricitas Economics • 32 implied HN points • 18 Sep 23
💰 Finance Housing Market
  1. Housing vacancy rates in the US are at historic lows, indicating a very tight market with rising prices.
  2. Housing vacancy rates don't just consider empty units, but also look at what's available for rent or purchase.
  3. The shortage of housing in the US requires substantial new construction to meet the demand and balance the market.

The Fed Can't, And Won't, Nail The Dismount

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
💰 Finance Market Analysis Inflation Federal Reserve Economic Trends
  1. Predicting market movements can be difficult, and it's important to acknowledge when predictions are not accurate.
  2. Even if past predictions have been off, it's necessary to stick to the underlying thesis and reasons for the forecasts.
  3. Quick excitement about economic factors like inflation or rate cuts may not always be warranted; it's important to take a more balanced perspective.

Quant Letter: May 2025, Week-4

The Parlour • 4 implied HN points • 30 May 25
💰 Finance Investing Trading Economics Financial Analysis Quantitative finance
  1. Using machine learning can help build models to categorize investors based on their behavior. This method faces challenges in being validated and understood.
  2. Research is exploring how to optimize portfolios over a longer time frame. This could help in making better financial decisions.
  3. Synthetic data created by agent-based models can provide valuable insights for testing and understanding trading strategies.

Investing Update: Q4 Top Ideas & Q3 Recap

Spilled Coffee • 12 implied HN points • 05 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Economic Indicators Portfolio Management
  1. The stock market has been doing really well, with the S&P 500 seeing a strong start this year. It's the best start since 1997, which is exciting for investors.
  2. In the third quarter, the S&P 500 had its best performance since 2020, and many stocks outperformed the index. This shows healthy growth and optimism in the market.
  3. Certain sectors like utilities are doing great, while energy stocks are lagging behind. It's important to pay attention to these trends when investing.

The Fed Sees a Softer, Higher Landing

Apricitas Economics • 31 implied HN points • 21 Sep 23
💰 Finance Policy Interest Rates Inflation Economy Monetary Policy
  1. The Fed is projecting a softer landing without the need for a recession to control inflation.
  2. There is less uncertainty in FOMC forecasts, and they anticipate higher GDP growth and slightly higher inflation.
  3. There are disagreements within the FOMC on the duration and extent of keeping interest rates high, with some seeing rates potentially staying permanently higher.

The true information is in the words, not the numbers

Klement on Investing • 4 implied HN points • 29 May 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Data science AI Applications
  1. Analyst recommendations are often seen as unreliable, especially when a 'Hold' is viewed like a 'Sell'. People are starting to see more value in the actual words analysts use rather than just the numbers they give.
  2. AI has been used to analyze over a million analyst reports, revealing that most discussions focus on profitability. However, during tough times, there's less talk about profitability and more on financial stability.
  3. It turns out that the specific language analysts use can help predict changes in earnings and stock prices, showing that understanding their words might be more valuable than just following their price forecasts.

Most Inflation Stories Don't Add Up

Economic Forces • 10 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
💰 Finance Inflation Price theory Economic Policy Market Trends
  1. Understanding whether inflation is caused by supply issues or increased demand is key. Supply-driven inflation leads to less output, while demand-driven inflation increases prices and output together.
  2. Nominal GDP growth is a useful measure to determine the cause of inflation. When nominal GDP increases alongside inflation, it usually indicates demand-driven inflation.
  3. Asking sellers why prices are rising often misses the real cause. Increased demand can look similar to supply issues, so it's important to analyze economic data carefully.

Clouded Judgement 11.22.24 - Is Software Back?

Clouded Judgement • 10 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Technology Stocks Economic Analysis
  1. There seems to be a shift happening where software companies are performing better while major tech stocks are lagging. This raises questions about whether this trend will continue.
  2. Recent earnings reports from software companies show strong results, suggesting that their business fundamentals might be improving significantly.
  3. There's a strong possibility that the market is looking for new investment opportunities, especially as some investors take profits from the longstanding success of major tech firms.

Some Quick Thoughts On The ONT Accounts

ASeq Newsletter • 21 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
💰 Finance Analysis
  1. The ONT account numbers released today are not directly comparable to previous reports, especially for S1 (MinION) users who appear to have shifted to 'Indirect' sales.
  2. The number of S2 active customers has been revised up to 1210 from the previous estimate of 'around 1100', as stated at JPM.
  3. The count of S3 customers has been reduced to 84 from the previously mentioned '90 large high throughput' at JPM.

What do Negative Interest Rates mean for Innovation?

Turnaround • 59 implied HN points • 29 Jun 20
💰 Finance Innovation Economy Bonds Venture Capital Cryptocurrency
  1. Negative interest rates can impede the process of creative destruction by keeping unproductive "zombie companies" alive, hindering market opportunities for new and innovative startups.
  2. Negative interest rates may lead to more funding flowing into startups and venture capital as investors seek higher returns in riskier assets, potentially boosting the startup ecosystem.
  3. Negative interest rates could boost the crypto economy by driving more interest in cryptocurrency as a viable alternative to traditional banking, particularly if mainstream banking options become unattractive due to negative rates.

Yi Gang on China's Digital Yuan

Pekingnology • 22 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
💰 Finance Digital Currency Central Banks Payment Systems Regulations
  1. China's digital yuan operates on a 'possession equals ownership' principle, serving both individuals and companies with a retail path, different from other wholesale digital currencies.
  2. The digital yuan does not compete with WeChat Pay or Alipay but complements them, ensuring privacy while complying with anti-money laundering regulations.
  3. The dual-layer structure of China's digital yuan, centralized management, and measures to prevent disintermediation help minimize impacts on monetary policy and ensure balance in the financial system.

The Maxell Man Market

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 21 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Economic conditions
  1. The stock market is currently experiencing euphoria due to factors like rising rates and quantitative tightening by the Fed, which seem counterintuitive to traditional market behavior.
  2. Despite conventional economic conditions pointing in the opposite direction, the market is still skyrocketing, challenging previous predictions of a crash.
  3. The author has identified two key factors propelling the market up, but foresees these influences potentially halting in the near future, possibly leading to a significant change in the market dynamics.

Illumina: Icahn Drops "Helix" Bombshell

Nongaap Investing • 27 implied HN points • 29 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing Lawsuit Acquisitions Insider trading
  1. Carl Icahn made a significant allegation involving Helix funding GRAIL in a lawsuit against Illumina.
  2. Icahn is suing to uncover undisclosed motives behind Illumina's GRAIL acquisition, anticipating major board changes.
  3. Understanding the connection between Helix and GRAIL is crucial due to potential undisclosed stakes and the involvement of multiple companies like Biogen.

All the Devils

Net Interest • 10 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💰 Finance Banking Investments Market Trends Economic History
  1. Credit Suisse faced many scandals over the years, with problems ranging from excessive leverage to internal fraud. Many employees engaged in unethical behavior, which contributed to the firm's reputation and difficulties.
  2. During the 2000s, Credit Suisse grew and achieved record earnings, but underlying issues were present. The firm made risky acquisitions and ignored warning signs that would later affect its stability.
  3. A historical perspective reveals a pattern of mismanagement and scandal within Credit Suisse. Key figures in the company made questionable decisions that ultimately led to its downfall.

Is macroeconomics a mature science?

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 03 Jul 25
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Investing Economic Theory Financial Models Market Analysis
  1. Macroeconomics has established theoretical frameworks that guide research and models, but these may not always be the best fit for real-world behavior.
  2. The predictive power of macroeconomic models is limited, making them less useful for investors but potentially helpful in forecasting broad economic trends.
  3. While there is some agreement on methodologies, many practitioners do not keep up with new findings, and integration between different fields is not as strong as it could be.

To hedge or not to hedge, and how to hedge

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 02 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Risk management Market Analysis Business strategy
  1. Businesses often face unpredictable costs, like oil prices or exchange rates, which can affect their profits. Hedging these costs can help make profits more stable and predictable.
  2. While hedging can reduce risk, it also comes with complexity and potential costs once the hedge expires. Some companies choose not to hedge at all because of this.
  3. Research shows that simply hedging all exposure might work as well as or better than more complicated strategies, so it’s often best to keep hedging simple.

Unconventional Money Lessons

Austin's Analects • 19 implied HN points • 22 Apr 22
💰 Finance Personal Finance
  1. Open a savings account and build an emergency fund, you never know when you'll need it
  2. Sometimes you need to do things you don't want to do in order to achieve your goals
  3. Working for somebody can teach you valuable lessons and give you practical experience

Illumina: Unidentified Financing Operation?

Nongaap Investing • 30 implied HN points • 22 Aug 23
💰 Finance Investments Governance Insider trading Mergers & Acquisitions
  1. Milky Way Investments Group's $125 million investment may have been used to benefit Illumina insiders through undisclosed shares and influence in Grail's Series D round.
  2. Dr. Klausner's ownership of Grail shares through Milky Way Investments Group raised concerns about undisclosed insider transactions and potential conflicts of interest.
  3. The intertwining relationships between Helix, Grail, and Illumina, as well as the modifications of options and redemptions, suggest possible non-disclosed financial dealings and self-dealing among insiders.

What Killed Signature Bank?

Apricitas Economics • 39 implied HN points • 01 Apr 23
💰 Finance Banking Crypto Regulation Assets Risk
  1. Signature Bank faced a severe bank run due to rapid withdrawal of deposits, leading to its collapse.
  2. The bank's heavy reliance on uninsured deposits, especially from crypto-related sources, contributed to its downfall.
  3. Regulators stepped in to prevent further financial contagion, highlighting the need for managing risks of fast-paced bank runs.

Inflation is Bad, Actually

Economic Forces • 7 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💰 Finance Inflation Macroeconomics Price theory Taxation Economic Policy
  1. Some people think inflation is good because it helps prevent deflation, but this argument is weak. Deflation can be harmful mainly when caused by poor policies, not just by falling prices.
  2. Inflation is often compared to a hidden tax because it decreases the value of money. Unlike regular taxes, people might not realize their purchasing power is being reduced until they feel the effects.
  3. Overall, inflation can create confusion and make economic decisions harder. It undermines the value of money as a reference point, leading to more mistakes and inefficiencies in both personal and business finances.