The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Random Thoughts on Mortgages, Household Finances, and Supply Conditions

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Housing supply Rent Inflation Urban Economics
  1. Low mortgage rates and wider mortgage access historically did not drive overall inflation; when mortgage access tightened after 2007 homeownership fell and rent inflation sped up.
  2. The country is in a housing shortage, and adding multi-family or even high-end units reduces pressure on low-tier rents through filtering and sales chains, so building more supply (including luxury) helps the worst-off.
  3. Household sizes stopped shrinking decades ago and the recent rise in adults per household reflects people doubling up because of the housing crisis, so claims that homes are bigger and households smaller are outdated and misleading.

Top Links 920 Dangerous positioning. Financial repression in the 21st century. Ornette Coleman and Jacques Derrida in conversation.

Chartbook • 443 implied HN points • 13 Nov 25
💰 Finance Investment Economics Market Trends Financial Policy Banking
  1. Dangerous positioning in finance can lead to risky outcomes, so it's important to be cautious. Many people might think they are diversified, but it can be misleading.
  2. Financial repression is a key trend in the 21st century, affecting how economies grow and interact. It can limit investment freedom and impact savings.
  3. Conversations about art and philosophy, like the one between Ornette Coleman and Jacques Derrida, can help us understand cultural influences and connections. Ideas in art often reflect deeper thoughts in society.
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The Last Living Value Investor's Portfolio

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 21 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Portfolio Dividends Macro Monetary Policy
  1. The market looks like a big bubble with stretched valuations that could snap back hard if conditions change. A fair-value PE near 17.6x implies roughly a 30% drop from current levels if earnings don’t rise.
  2. The portfolio stance is defensive and skeptical: largely on- and off-net short to protect against a bubble popping, though shorts can be temporarily covered for specific catalysts like geopolitical events.
  3. There are five deep-value long positions (two added recently), and three of those longs yield over 6% in dividends, reflecting a preference for high-yield, fundamentally cheap opportunities inside an overheated market.

Gao Peiyong: boosting consumption requires profound redistribution reform

Pekingnology • 60 implied HN points • 14 Feb 26
💰 Finance Fiscal policy Public Finance Taxation Income distribution Social Security Consumption
  1. Household consumption is weak mainly because people’s job prospects, incomes, and confidence are shaky, so restoring expectations and income security is central to reviving demand.
  2. Fixing this requires deep redistribution: shift fiscal spending away from large physical projects and fiscal assets toward public services and direct support for people, and make fiscal policy more equal between urban and rural areas.
  3. Pair short‑term policy measures to unlock immediate spending with long‑term institutional reform — especially a universal, non‑discriminatory social security and transfer system — and make expectations management a routine part of macroeconomic governance.

Hey PayPal: Follow Block, Cut 40% Of Staff Tomorrow

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 27 Feb 26
💰 Finance Equities Corporate Actions AI Payments Valuation
  1. AI-driven workforce reductions can trigger immediate investor revaluation, because markets price in expected margin gains before audited results arrive.
  2. When a low-multiple, cash-generating company pairs AI productivity cuts with aggressive buybacks, EPS and share price can rise quickly as margins and share count improve.
  3. Big layoffs carry execution and reputational risks, and cutting costs alone won’t ensure long-term innovation or competitive advantage.

Still Not Out Of The Woods

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 27 Feb 26
💰 Finance Inflation Monetary Policy Macroeconomics Economic data Central Banks Markets
  1. Wholesale inflation accelerated in January — core PPI jumped 0.8% for the month and is running around 3.6% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s 2% goal.
  2. The hotter PPI contrasts with a softer CPI, and that tension matters because rising producer prices can filter through to consumer prices over time.
  3. It’s premature to declare victory over inflation — the PPI data suggest inflation risks remain and policymakers should stay cautious.

Lula Hoops

Doomberg • 5190 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
💰 Finance Currency Investments Global Economy Central Banking
  1. Gold prices have been rising significantly and outperforming the S&P 500 lately, reaching all-time highs in many currencies.
  2. There's speculation that central banks are accumulating gold as they explore options for a new currency to compete with the US dollar, particularly involving a potential BRICS currency backed by gold.
  3. At the recent BRICS summit, there were concerns that Brazil's president might not fully support efforts to move away from the US dollar, which could impact the success of this new currency initiative.

Will AI Cause Massive Deflation?

cryptoeconomy • 1493 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economics Technology Central Banking Inflation Deflation
  1. There will not be durable deflation in the future unless major changes happen to the dollar or the Federal Reserve.
  2. Technology like AI can lead to deflation by lowering prices, but central banks like the Federal Reserve counteract this by absorbing the deflation.
  3. A special type of bad deflation occurs when dollars are taken out of circulation, often due to events like financial panics, leading to economic challenges.

Weekend thoughts follow up: $NYCB insider buying and mea culpa

Yet Another Value Blog • 1395 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Banking Stocks Economy Insider trading
  1. The loan book for NYCB is in worse shape than expected, potentially facing huge losses due to rent-regulated properties and increasing expenses.
  2. Despite the challenges, NYCB has over $7 billion in tangible equity, which could help the bank navigate through the crisis.
  3. Insider buying at NYCB following a special update call shows confidence in the institution, highlighting efforts to stabilize the stock amid a tough situation.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 16 Feb 26
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Home Prices Mortgages Construction Inventory
  1. Active listings for existing homes are up about 10% year‑over‑year and month‑of‑inventory is back to pre‑pandemic levels, which is putting downward pressure on prices and could lead to year‑over‑year price declines this year. Most homeowners still have substantial equity and low mortgage rates, so a big wave of distressed sales is unlikely.
  2. Homebuilders look to face a difficult 2026 because they have many completed homes for sale and an unusually large number of unsold homes under construction, so they’re cutting prices to compete with growing existing‑home inventory.
  3. Key government data on housing starts and new home sales are delayed by the shutdown, leaving the picture incomplete, and different sources show mixed inventory trends even though national supply remains roughly 17% below 2017–19 levels and the inventory recovery has stalled.

NY AG Sues Citibank For Insufficient Data Security Measures, Failure to Address Scams

Metacurity • 1434 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
💰 Finance Security Measures Scams Data Breach
  1. The New York Attorney General sued Citibank for insufficient data security measures and failure to address scams.
  2. Citibank is accused of not doing enough to prevent unauthorized account takeovers and misleading customers about their rights after being hacked.
  3. The lawsuit alleges that Citibank has overpromised and underdelivered on security measures and failed to respond to red flags.

The Specie Flow Mechanism

David Friedman’s Substack • 170 implied HN points • 07 Jan 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy International Trade Exchange rates Gold Standard Capital flows Fiscal policy
  1. When countries use the same money, trade deficits cause specie (gold) to flow and change domestic price levels, and those price changes naturally push trade back toward balance.
  2. Capital flows can offset trade imbalances, so a country can run a persistent trade deficit if it attracts enough foreign investment; equilibrium is reached when a country’s trade deficit equals its net capital inflow.
  3. In a multi-currency world exchange rates adjust quickly while price-level changes under a single currency affect debtors and creditors, and governments or central banks can temporarily intervene with reserves or money supply but cannot sustain those interventions forever.

The Utility of Wealth and the Distribution Of Income

David Friedman’s Substack • 422 implied HN points • 17 Nov 25
💰 Finance Wealth Distribution Income Inequality Economic History Personal Finance Career Choices
  1. Being rich today is much better than being poor, but even those with less money still enjoy comforts that were unimaginable in medieval times.
  2. People today face risks when choosing careers, but the rewards are not as drastically different as they were in the past, which affects how much they are willing to gamble for higher income.
  3. Income inequality exists, but unlike in medieval times where the extremes were much larger, modern income differences lead to different levels of competition for high-paying jobs.

Beijing's Bubble Bursts Part 2

Diane Francis • 1378 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
💰 Finance Debt crisis Real Estate Global Economy Investment Speculation
  1. China's real estate bubble has created massive debt, making it harder for local governments to provide services. Many places have empty buildings while local debts soar.
  2. The Belt and Road Initiative has turned into a huge financial burden for China, with many countries unable to repay the loans. This has led to China becoming the biggest debt collector globally.
  3. China's gambling-like approach to its economy is hurting its growth and reputation. With a lot of speculation and risk-taking, its future outlook looks uncertain.

Why the low multiple series: Rental Car companies edition, part 2

Yet Another Value Blog • 1631 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Companies Market Analysis Economic Trends Financial Strategy
  1. Rental car companies are currently trading at low multiples, making them a potentially cheap investment.
  2. Despite the persuasive bear case, the bull case for rental car companies includes aggressive capital returns to shareholders and potential for sustained earnings.
  3. Structural improvements in the rental car industry, such as consolidation and disciplined supply, could support profitability even if current high levels are not completely sustainable.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin on What's Actually Happening in the Economy

Kyla’s Newsletter • 121 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Labor Market Economic outlook Central Banking Financial Markets Investment
  1. The Fed is learning from the 1970s vs 1990s: inflation expectations and productivity trends matter. AI could boost productivity but that’s uncertain, so policy needs to be cautious and nimble.
  2. Persistent uncertainty and a gap between sentiment and official data are major issues. Negative news cycles make people feel worse even when jobs, wages, and spending remain fairly strong.
  3. The economy has been surprisingly resilient but growth is narrow, driven by AI investment and healthcare jobs, which creates concentration risks linked to the stock market and hiring. Ground-level signals like cranes and parking lots are useful to check what businesses are actually doing.

[2025–2026] Week 20: The Mental Game of Poker by Jared Tendler

Behavioral Value Investor • 14 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
💰 Finance Investing Value investing Behavioral Finance Decision-making Risk management
  1. Forecasting is hard but unavoidable; to earn excess returns you must make a forecast that disagrees with the expectations already priced into a stock.
  2. Your mental game matters — strive to operate in your A‑game rather than your C‑game, learn how to detect when you’ve slipped, identify the causes, and develop routines to correct course.
  3. Deliberate practice and community feedback help you improve: use case studies, complete assignments, share your answers, and engage with others to sharpen your investing skills.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 86 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
💰 Finance Housing Mortgages Credit Risk Delinquencies Foreclosures Real Estate
  1. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae saw slight increases in single-family serious delinquency rates in December (Freddie 0.58%→0.59%, Fannie 0.57%→0.58%), but both remain low and at or below pre-pandemic levels.
  2. Fannie’s delinquency issues are concentrated in older loan vintages — loans from 2004–2008 show much higher serious delinquency rates (about 1.4–2.0%) while 2009–2025 vintages are low (around 0.53%).
  3. Fannie Mae’s multi-family delinquency rate is approaching housing-bust highs, and the report counts loans in forbearance as delinquent even though those loans aren’t reported to credit bureaus.

Calling for a purge. Is "collective leadership" making a come back? Publicity right. The "death bump" & Flecktarn.

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 24 Nov 25
💰 Finance Economy Recession Leadership Market Investment
  1. Some people think that economies need downturns to stay healthy. They believe these 'purges' can help reset the market.
  2. Collective leadership might be becoming more popular again. This kind of leadership could mean working together to make decisions.
  3. The world economy has mostly avoided a big recession for a long time, especially since the COVID-19 lockdowns. That's unusual and raises questions about future economic stability.

Economics Links, 11/19/2025

In My Tribe • 334 implied HN points • 19 Nov 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends Labor Market Income distribution Trade policy Market Competition
  1. New York's economy is shifting away from finance jobs and seeing growth in lower-paying sectors like media and nonprofits. This makes people unhappy as they feel the cost of living is high.
  2. Unbundling is happening in various industries, meaning consumers are now paying directly for what they actually use instead of sharing costs with others. This could lead to higher prices for some services.
  3. Although more families are earning higher incomes now than in the past, young people still feel unhappy. Reasons include high housing costs and the tendency to compare themselves to others who have more.

Liu Shijin urges RMB internationalisation to boost consumption, balance trade

Pekingnology • 75 implied HN points • 05 Feb 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Exchange rates International Finance Macroeconomics Consumption Capital Markets
  1. China needs to boost domestic consumption to fix a demand shortfall, focusing especially on services and basic public services and raising incomes for rural and low‑income groups.
  2. The growth model should shift from investment/export‑led expansion to one driven by innovation and consumption, using ‘terminal demand’ to guide effective investment and letting inefficient capacity exit.
  3. Accelerating RMB internationalisation—by expanding the offshore RMB pool through RMB‑settled imports, making RMB settlement a market‑access condition, and developing offshore RMB financial products—can strengthen the currency’s global role and support domestic consumption growth.

7 Investing Habits That Matter More Than Stock Picks in 2026

Behavioral Value Investor • 193 implied HN points • 30 Dec 25
💰 Finance Investing Behavioral Finance Portfolio Management Risk management Personal Finance Wealth Management
  1. Be honest about your strengths and weaknesses as an investor and focus on improving your process; pick one area to work on deeply rather than trying to change everything at once.
  2. Do less trading and spend most of your time reading and learning, but be prepared to act decisively and take large positions when a high-conviction opportunity within your circle of competence appears.
  3. Keep realistic return expectations and maintain high investment standards; ignore market noise, hot trends, and persuasive promises that erode your margin of safety.

👑 Everything you need to know about valuation

Compounding Quality • 2614 implied HN points • 23 Feb 23
💰 Finance Valuation Investing Stocks Growth Earnings
  1. In the short term, stock prices are driven by fluctuations in valuation, while in the long term, they follow the intrinsic value of a company.
  2. When investing, it's crucial to buy stocks at a discount to their true worth to avoid poor results.
  3. Consider factors like Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) and expected growth when evaluating the value of a company to make informed investment decisions.

Weekend thoughts: investing advice (not financial advice!) for non-investors

Yet Another Value Blog • 1513 implied HN points • 13 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Index funds Accounting Value investing
  1. Investing in low-cost index funds can be a smart choice for non-investors.
  2. Trying to outperform the market with individual stock trading is challenging and can be risky.
  3. It's important to learn the basics, understand finding an edge, and align investments with expertise when pursuing investing as a hobby.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 05 Aug 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Economic Trends Interest Rates
  1. The stock market is experiencing a decline due to concerns about weaker growth in China and delays in new technologies from major companies like Nvidia. Investors are getting nervous, leading to a selloff.
  2. Reports of disappointing job numbers in the U.S. have made investors worried about the economy, especially with the Federal Reserve possibly cutting interest rates into a recession rather than a soft landing.
  3. Despite the current market downturn, historical data suggests that bull markets can last longer than many think. This bull market has lasted about 22 months so far, which is still shorter than average.

Credit Scores Explained

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 419 implied HN points • 30 May 24
💰 Finance Credit Scores Debt Management Financial tools
  1. Your credit score is a quick way for companies to see how likely you are to pay back a loan. Better scores mean you’re seen as a lower risk.
  2. Paying off loans can sometimes lower your credit score because it can reduce your credit mix. But over time, responsible spending will help your score go back up.
  3. There are many myths about credit scores, like thinking you only have one or that you must carry a balance to improve your score. In reality, it's better to pay off debt completely.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 99 implied HN points • 11 Aug 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Market Trends Economic Analysis Bonds
  1. Market corrections are normal and can be healthy for long-term growth. It's important to own a mix of investments and stay calm during downturns.
  2. After a drop in the stock market, like with the S&P 500, there's often a bounce back, with strong average returns in the months that follow.
  3. Media companies are struggling with changes in viewer habits, which may lead to consolidations in the industry. This means fewer players but potentially stronger companies in the long run.