The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

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Alchemy of Money

Neckar’s Notes • 9 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Wealth Economics Psychology Markets
  1. Investing takes patience and energy management, with only rare moments of excitement. It's important to think deeply about the opportunities in the market.
  2. Successful investors analyze their feelings about money, as these beliefs can impact their financial decisions. Inner work on money beliefs is essential for success.
  3. Life with money presents constant tests about what kind of world we want and what sacrifices we're willing to make. Careful choices in financial matters are crucial.

Economic Calendar for the Week of January 05, 2025

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Events Market Analysis Investment strategy Global Trade Earnings Reports
  1. This week has important economic events like PMI reports and jobless claims that could affect the market.
  2. Major companies will be reporting their earnings, which could give insight into their financial health.
  3. There are both U.S. and global economic indicators to watch, including inflation rates and consumer confidence.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Markets Sales Inventory Economics
  1. In December, closed home sales saw an 18.1% increase from the previous year, indicating a positive trend in some local markets.
  2. There was a significant jump in active housing inventory, up 27.2% compared to last year, with more homes available for buyers.
  3. New listings also grew by 11.8% year-over-year, but overall levels are still historically low compared to 2019.
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2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Trends Real Estate Sales Data Inventory
  1. Home sales have been increasing for three months in a row compared to last year, which is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. Inventory of homes for sale is up significantly, especially in southern states like Florida and Texas, meaning more choices for buyers.
  3. New listings are still low compared to past years, but they have increased recently, indicating some recovery in the market.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory
  1. Some local housing markets are seeing quicker inventory recovery than sales, especially in states like Florida and Texas. This may lead to rising home prices.
  2. December is showing a year-over-year increase in home sales for the third month in a row. This trend might indicate a recovering housing market.
  3. Regional differences in the housing market are important to watch. Understanding these differences can help buyers and sellers make better decisions.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgages Economic Trends Credit Risk
  1. Single-family serious delinquency rates for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have increased slightly in December, indicating more homeowners are struggling to keep up with mortgage payments.
  2. Fannie Mae's delinquency rate rose to 0.56% while Freddie Mac's went up to 0.59%, both of which are still lower than pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Older loans from before 2009 show higher serious delinquency, whereas more recent loans are performing better, but there are still some lingering issues from past housing bubble years.

The Year-End Money Market Storm

Concoda • 464 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Monetary Policy Financial Instruments Risk management
  1. Demand for funding is very high right now, causing banks to struggle. This could lead to big changes in money markets by the end of the year.
  2. Many traders are looking for ways to finance their stock trades, leading to more activity in repo markets. This means borrowing money using stocks as collateral is becoming common.
  3. There's a big challenge with U.S. government debt right now. The banks need to buy up a lot of unwanted debt at a time when borrowing money is getting tougher.

Economics Links

In My Tribe • 455 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Theory Regulation Labor Market Cryptocurrency Market Trends
  1. Academic economics has a culture that can feel snobby. Many economists avoid challenging well-known figures out of fear of seeming unimportant.
  2. The job market has changed a lot over the years, moving from agriculture to manufacturing, and now to service-based jobs. This shift reflects changes in demand and productivity.
  3. Cutting regulations can significantly lower prices, leading to increased real income for people. This could result in economic growth that exceeds what many economists expect.

The Tipping Point

The Last Bear Standing • 28 implied HN points • 10 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Economics Trends Stocks
  1. Microsoft is investing in significant capital projects which could impact the market. It's good to pay attention to how this could change things in the future.
  2. Labor market data is mixed; while some numbers seem weak, others show strength. This may indicate a balancing act in the economy.
  3. Inflation and earnings reports coming up are essential to watch. They will likely add more excitement and direction to the market soon.

The Fed is only looking to past inflation, and that's a problem.

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) • 805 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Economy Federal Reserve Data-driven
  1. The Fed is focusing only on past inflation, and this approach may lead to problems with monetary policy decisions.
  2. Recent data shows a rapid decrease in inflation over the past six months, suggesting a return towards the 2% target.
  3. Despite strong economic growth and high interest rates, the Fed continues to rely heavily on backward-looking inflation data for its decision-making.

December 2024 Inflation

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Investments Markets Inflation Housing
  1. December 2024 saw important updates about inflation. This is something people need to keep an eye on for their finances.
  2. There's a focus on housing data, which is crucial as it can greatly affect the economy and people's living situations.
  3. Subscribing to this housing tracker gives access to ongoing insights. This can help people stay informed about market changes.

Interest Rate Risks are Collapsing Banks

The Informationist • 1650 implied HN points • 30 Apr 23
💰 Finance Banking Interest Rates Risk management Financial Crisis Investments
  1. Interest rate risks can lead to bank collapses due to mismanagement and lack of oversight
  2. Different types of interest rate risks affect banks' financial positions, such as repricing risk and basis risk
  3. It is important for individuals to be cautious with their bank deposits and consider diversifying investments based on personal risk tolerance and long-term goals

❄️ 💰 15,9 % : taux d'épargne des Français. Et vous ?

Snowball • 1650 implied HN points • 01 Mar 23
💰 Finance Savings Budgeting Investing Personal Finance Money Management
  1. The savings rate of French citizens is 15.9%, consider your own savings.
  2. Understanding the basics of saving, the importance of putting savings to work in your budget, and determining the ideal amount to save.
  3. Tips for successful saving: set annual goals, make saving a habit, establish rules, track your savings, and create a balanced situation.

Market Misreads Services Inflation And the BOJ

Japan Economy Watch • 1018 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Inflation Central Banks Economic data Monetary Policy
  1. Market players and forecasters may be misreading the intentions of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) about inflation and wage data.
  2. The BOJ's ambiguous messages and contradictory statements are causing confusion in the market.
  3. Evaluating services inflation and wage hikes requires careful consideration of data and not jumping to conclusions.

Thank you for your support of this stack for it means a great deal to me & family; I have left it FREE with no comment restrictions etc & will continue! Can you consider a PAID subscription ($29 year)

Alexander News Network -Dr. Paul Elias Alexander's substack • 786 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
💰 Finance Subscription
  1. The author is grateful for support and offers a free subscription but also suggests a paid option for $29 a year.
  2. The author values critical thinkers and encourages sharing the subscription with others.
  3. The subscription model consists of free and paid options for readers to choose from.

Data Update 2: A Stock Comeback - Winning the expectations game!

Musings on Markets • 919 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investment Strategies Economic Analysis Market Trends Earnings Reports
  1. The stock market showed a strong comeback in 2023, recovering most losses from the previous year. However, the recovery was uneven, with a few big companies driving much of the growth.
  2. Investor expectations have shifted positively for 2024, with forecasts indicating controlled inflation and a soft landing for the economy. But, this positive sentiment poses challenges for equity investors as they must meet heightened expectations.
  3. Current stock valuations suggest that the market may be slightly overvalued. Investors should be cautious and consider potential risks when making decisions, as the future remains uncertain.

Mantic Monday 5/22/23

Astral Codex Ten • 5919 implied HN points • 23 May 23
💰 Finance Prediction Markets Debt Ceiling Bitcoin Financial Decisions
  1. A play money prediction market turned serious when whales v. minnows gambling escalated, resulting in heavy financial losses, leading to ethical challenges.
  2. Congress is facing the decision of raising the debt ceiling, which if not resolved, could lead to severe economic consequences.
  3. Research shows that experts fare better than algorithms and non-experts in long-term geopolitical forecasting, raising questions about the accuracy and possibilities of such predictions.

Why you'll hate my investment advice

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Personal Finance Economics Market Trends Real Estate
  1. Understanding the basics of an investment can clarify why certain opinions might seem oversimplified or dismissive at times.
  2. It's important to recognize different perspectives in investing, as they can affect how one interprets market issues.
  3. Sharing investment strategies can help others see the reasoning behind specific choices and thought processes.

Could the USD Hyperinflate?

The Informationist • 1592 implied HN points • 07 May 23
💰 Finance Inflation Markets Currency Investments Assets
  1. Hyperinflation is when a currency loses value rapidly due to extreme inflation.
  2. Some currencies have hyperinflated in the past, like those of Yugoslavia, Zimbabwe, and Hungary.
  3. While there is a chance the USD could hyperinflate, it is likely one of the last currencies to do so and owning hard assets can help protect against hyperinflation.

Fischer Black vs. Monetarism

In My Tribe • 455 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Economic Theory Inflation Market Dynamics Financial Systems
  1. Fischer Black believed that both money supply and price levels are based on collective beliefs rather than strict numbers. People accept money because they trust others will accept it too.
  2. Inflation and prices are influenced more by market behavior and expectations rather than solely by money supply. This means prices can change based on what people think will happen in the future.
  3. The relationship between money and prices might be less reliable than before. As people use less cash and more digital forms of payment, traditional ways to predict inflation might not work well anymore.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 159 implied HN points • 29 Jun 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Billionaires Dividends Economic Trends
  1. AI is really changing the game for billionaires, with many seeing huge increases in their wealth this year. Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, has gained $65 billion thanks to this trend.
  2. Investors are seeing big changes in the stock market due to AI. Companies tied to AI are outperforming others significantly, which hasn't been seen since the dot-com boom.
  3. Dividends are an important part of investing, and there are companies that have been paying them for over 100 years. These can be good long-term investments since they show a commitment to returning value to shareholders.

The Real Mission of the Fed

In My Tribe • 607 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance Central Banking Government debt Monetary Policy Financial Crises Quantitative Easing
  1. The main job of the Federal Reserve is to help the government borrow money easily and cheaply. This allows the government to spend on various programs, including wars and welfare.
  2. Despite originating to stabilize the banking system, the Fed has faced criticism for not preventing financial crises. Even after its creation, the U.S. has experienced repeated financial problems.
  3. Quantitative Easing, a method the Fed uses to handle money and loans, may need to end. This would help limit government debt and potentially benefit everyday Americans in the long run.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 3 The Dog that Didn’t Bark - Retirement Homes

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Real Estate
  1. Housing prices in different neighborhoods react differently to economic changes. In Atlanta, for instance, while the economy was severely impacted, the wealthy neighborhoods faced less of a decline compared to lower-income areas.
  2. Retirement communities usually rely less on credit markets, as many buyers pay in cash. This makes them interesting places to study housing trends and market responses to economic events.
  3. Local housing supply issues can drive prices up across all neighborhoods, not just low-income ones. When there's not enough housing built, even retirement homes can see rising costs.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Trends Sales Economics Investments
  1. California home sales increased by about 19.8% compared to last year in December. This shows a strong recovery in the housing market.
  2. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects the existing home sales report for December to reflect ongoing growth. This will mark the third month of year-over-year increases in home sales.
  3. There’s a general positive trend in the housing market after months of decline. It's a sign that more people are starting to buy homes again.

Beijing's Bubble Bursts Part 1

Diane Francis • 779 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economics Investment Real Estate Global Markets Debt crisis
  1. Taiwan's recent election saw a victory for William Lai, which was not welcomed by Beijing and highlighted tensions between the two regions.
  2. China's stock exchanges have dropped significantly, with mainland markets falling by 6-7% and Hong Kong by 12%, signaling economic struggles.
  3. The financial issues with Evergrande Group, a major property developer, have led to a court-ordered liquidation, exposing the dangers of China's real estate bubble.

The Price of Passion (Life is like a jar of marbles)

Neckar’s Notes • 111 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investment Wealth Capitalism Philanthropy Markets
  1. Being passionate about your work can be great, but it can also lead to burnout. It's important to find a balance so that you don't end up hating what you once loved.
  2. Some wealthy individuals work hard without needing the money, and they often question why they keep doing it. Reflecting on the usefulness and purpose of their efforts can lead to deeper self-understanding.
  3. Philanthropy can be a way to find meaning and happiness for those with excess wealth. However, just giving money away doesn’t always bring fulfillment if one is stuck in a life of work they don't enjoy.

A Sugar AI High Shrugs Off Bad Market News

Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America • 884 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
💰 Finance Markets Investments Economy Interest Rates Geopolitics
  1. The S&P 500 continues to rise despite bad news like inflation and unemployment.
  2. Big tech billionaires are heavily investing in AI that may impact the job market and lead to technological warfare.
  3. Geopolitical tensions, including the possibility of war in the Middle East, are influencing the market's stability.

Do Tariffs Reduce Trade Deficits?

In My Tribe • 288 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💰 Finance International Trade Macroeconomics Tariffs Economic Policy
  1. Understanding international economics is complicated and involves many factors. It's not just simple numbers, but a mix of many different elements.
  2. A country's trade surplus is linked to its ability to save more than it invests. Countries that save well will usually end up holding other countries' debt like U.S. Treasury bills.
  3. Imposing tariffs might not significantly reduce trade deficits. Instead, currency appreciation can offset any potential benefits from tariffs, so real change depends more on national savings rates.

The Masters in Finance Arts Department

Malt Liquidity • 8 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investment Economics Market Analysis Financial Technology Behavioral Finance
  1. Writing often reflects personal experiences, but it can also be a form of storytelling that adds depth to facts. The best writing connects readers and creates an emotional response.
  2. Financial analysis is more about crafting a compelling narrative than it is about pure data. Understanding market trends and personal intuition can often be as important as mathematical models.
  3. In the future, traditional finance degrees may become less relevant, and skills like effective communication and critical thinking will be key. Learning how to sift through information and make sense of it is going to be very valuable.

Economics Links

In My Tribe • 394 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Interest Rates Consumption Inflation Government Policy Economic Theory
  1. Cato's wish list includes ideas for government reform, like raising Social Security retirement ages. Some of these suggestions might not be politically popular, but they show a push for change from a libertarian angle.
  2. There's a big difference in how academics and policymakers view the impact of interest rates on consumption. Academics think higher rates could boost future consumption, while policymakers see them as a negative for the economy.
  3. Scott Sumner highlights the issues with measuring inflation. He argues that inflation numbers are often confusing and imprecise, which also affects how we understand productivity changes.

469: The Market's Goal, Synopsys + Ansys, Nvidia, Spyderco, Intel AI Spin, Nuclear Arsenal Forgotten Secrets, Recessions Since 1860, and Searching for Bobby Fischer

Liberty’s Highlights • 884 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
💰 Finance Market Dynamics Mergers Tech industry Nuclear Weapons Film
  1. The market often surprises people and goes through cycles of confusion and growth.
  2. US recessions have been less frequent, signifying stability, but opportunities for growth still exist.
  3. Merger talks and developments in companies like Synopsys, Ansys, Nvidia, and Intel show shifts in technology landscapes.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 12 Jul 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Banking Economy Corporate Earnings
  1. Marko Kolanovic's bearish predictions about the stock market didn't happen, leading to his departure from JP Morgan. In a strong market, being negative can be isolating.
  2. Tesla's stocks have been rising quickly due to excitement around AI and self-driving cars, but some analysts warn that the stock may be overrated at this point.
  3. Costco is raising its membership fees for the first time in seven years, which could lead to an increase in their profits. Many analysts continue to view Costco as a strong investment option.