The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

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New capitalism III: Capital

Global Inequality and More 3.0 • 1691 implied HN points • 27 Jul 25
💰 Finance Inequality Capital Economics Investment Taxation
  1. Capital income is different from labor income. You earn labor income by working hard, but capital income comes from simply having money to invest.
  2. Income from capital is very unequal. Most people don't receive any capital income at all, making it highly concentrated among the wealthy.
  3. A large portion of the world's population has no income from capital. Up to 85% of people may not earn anything from their investments, leading to a significant divide in wealth.

Top Links 939 Global Agg. China's energy storage boom. The collapse in FDI to China. The legacy of Ungern-Sternberg.

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 02 Dec 25
💰 Finance Investments Bonds Economics Global Markets China
  1. China is experiencing a big boom in energy storage, which could impact energy management globally.
  2. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into China has significantly collapsed, signaling potential economic concerns.
  3. The legacy of Ungern-Sternberg is being reflected in current global challenges and discussions.

Some Mortgage Payment Arithmetic

In My Tribe • 486 implied HN points • 18 Nov 25
💰 Finance Mortgages Investing Personal Finance Banking Economics
  1. A 30-year mortgage has higher monthly payments but lets you pay off your principal faster compared to a 50-year mortgage, which has lower payments but keeps you in debt longer.
  2. Gimmicks like 50-year mortgages can seem appealing because of lower payments, but they slow down how quickly you build equity in your home.
  3. When deciding whether to pay off your mortgage early, consider how much you could earn by investing that money elsewhere versus the interest you're saving.

If You Only Watch One Thing In Today's Trading...

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
💰 Finance Markets Equities Commodities Trading Macro Geopolitics
  1. Pre-market futures are signaling a clear risk-off move, with the Dow down about 1.2%, the S&P down ~1.1%, and the Nasdaq down ~1.4%.
  2. Gold is rallying roughly 3% as capital shifts into traditional hedges, showing a flight-to-safety reaction.
  3. There are two very different market paths possible this week, so how futures and sector action evolve will likely determine which direction markets take.

Long Take: Will BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise or GBTC win the Bitcoin ETF launch?

The Fintech Blueprint • 2181 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
💰 Finance Bitcoin ETFs Regulation
  1. Recent approval of 11 Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC reflects growing acceptance of cryptocurrency among younger demographics.
  2. Bitcoin ETFs integrate crypto assets into traditional financial infrastructure, appealing to high-net-worth individuals and institutional investors.
  3. ETFs enable easier access to crypto assets through traditional sales channels and contribute to financial adoption of the crypto asset class.
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This Is Imaginal Disk

Some Unpleasant Arithmetic • 23 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
💰 Finance Market Theory Tech Investing Labor markets Behavioral Finance Corporate Finance
  1. Modern AI systems run on huge models trained with massive datasets and require enormous compute — specialized GPUs, large data centers, lots of energy, and a concentrated global chip supply chain.
  2. The current AI boom resembles past tech bubbles because vast infrastructure and speculative valuations risk collapsing if those investments don’t translate into sustained cash flows or viable business models.
  3. Evidence of AI’s productivity gains is mixed and uneven: some tasks see modest improvements, adoption has plateaued in places, and public, political, and regulatory resistance (especially to data centers) could limit broader economic impact.

Chartbook 401: The dollar system in an age of market-based finance - financial globalization beyond banks (The World Economy Now, July 2025)

Chartbook • 1659 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
💰 Finance Global Finance Market Trends Financial Institutions Economic Policy Investment Strategies
  1. Since the 2008 financial crisis, more money is flowing into government bonds instead of loans to private companies, changing how our financial system works.
  2. Non-bank financial institutions like hedge funds and investment funds have grown significantly, taking on more risk and affecting stability in financial markets.
  3. The US financial system is now more influenced by global developments, making it vulnerable to shocks from other countries, not just from within the US.

Top Links 942 The global dollar zone. Italian unemployment. China's pharma surge & a multiplex world.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 05 Dec 25
💰 Finance Global Economy Currency Investment Trade Employment
  1. The global financial system is mainly led by the United States and its allies, holding about 65% of the world's external assets and debts. This shows how much influence they still have.
  2. Italy has interesting changes in its job market, so looking at their unemployment rate could give insights into the country's economic health.
  3. China's pharmaceutical industry is rapidly growing, indicating a significant shift in global health and economic dynamics. This can affect how healthcare looks in the future.

Lessons for Debt Control from Clinton's Success in the 1990s

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 222 implied HN points • 01 Jan 26
💰 Finance Fiscal policy Monetary Policy Public Debt Macroeconomics Tax policy Economic History Financial Markets
  1. When fiscal consolidation is credible and the central bank supports demand while technology cuts the price of capital, private investment can be crowded in and overall growth can accelerate.
  2. The 1994 bond-market selloff reflected unexpectedly strong tech-led growth and mortgage-backed‑security duration effects, not a market fear that deficit cuts would wreck the recovery.
  3. The 1993 deficit‑reduction package paired tax increases with spending caps and expanded the EITC, which helped working families and long‑run growth, while much of the political opposition was partisan theater rather than a unanimous professional economic judgment.

Onward and Upward Past 5,000 As Communist China Swoons and AI Destroys More Jobs

Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America • 1768 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Geopolitics Inflation Investing Artificial Intelligence
  1. The stock market has shown a technical rally with S&P 500 surpassing 5000, driven by trend traders focusing more on technical aspects than fundamentals.
  2. Artificial intelligence is significantly impacting the job market, with companies using AI for tasks like layoff decisions, with some notable companies like United Parcel Service and BlackRock making significant staff reductions.
  3. China's economy is being compared to past scenarios like Japan's real estate market crash, highlighting concerns about potential global repercussions.

"A Perfect Storm For Silver": Comex Supplies Continue To Shrink Rapidly

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 34 implied HN points • 26 Feb 26
💰 Finance Commodities Precious metals Futures Trading Market structure
  1. Silver supplies on the Comex are shrinking fast as registered and eligible inventories are being drawn down and investors are taking physical metal out of the vaults.
  2. The silver market is in backwardation, meaning spot prices are above futures, which signals immediate physical shortage and strong buyer demand pushing prices up.
  3. Gold also shows ongoing physical demand with metal leaving vaults and high delivery volumes, and together these trends could put significant strain on Comex inventories in 2026.

December 2025 Residential Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Home Sales Inventory Levels Market Data Economics
  1. Home sales have been mostly flat through December but are starting to show signs of picking up.
  2. Inventory has been falling since the summer, which suggests supply is beginning to tighten.
  3. Months-of-inventory remains above seven months, so there is still ample supply and many willing counterparties in the market.

Top Links 935 What hedge funds are shorting. The electrotech revolution. Monroe Doctrine 2.0 & how Napoleonic mathematicians brought the blackboard to America.

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 28 Nov 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Hedge Funds Economics Short selling
  1. Hedge funds are increasingly betting against utility companies, which shows a rise in their short interest. This may indicate that investors are worried about the future of these companies.
  2. There's a significant focus on the electrotech revolution, suggesting big changes and advancements in technology are on the horizon.
  3. The concept of 'Monroe Doctrine 2.0' ties into historical mathematics and its influence on America's educational landscape, highlighting the ongoing impact of past ideas on modern society.

The Fed Is Adding $20B A Month To The Balance Sheet

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Banking Government debt Interest Rates Bond Market Macroeconomics
  1. The Fed quietly restarted QE and is adding roughly $20 billion a month to its balance sheet, which is already about $6.6 trillion and could balloon much higher in the next crisis.
  2. Most Fed purchases have been in short-term debt, which has pushed short rates down and steepened the yield curve. The Fed has been losing money and isn’t remitting profits to the Treasury, leaving a large deferred loss.
  3. Foreign buyers have helped absorb new Treasury issuance but their buying has flattened recently, so if the Fed won’t buy long-term bonds and foreign demand stalls, Treasury borrowing costs could spike and further strain the budget.

Late-Cycle Investment Theory: Winter 2025–2026 in 10 Snapshots

European Straits • 21 implied HN points • 22 Feb 26
💰 Finance Macro Monetary Policy Investing Capital Markets Geoeconomics Fintech Commodities Industrial Policy
  1. The US is showing early stagflation: growth is slowing, inflation remains sticky, and consumer spending is soft even as energy and tech costs rise with weak wage growth.
  2. China now operates at a civilisational scale that breaks ordinary economic frameworks, and it is building a massive electrified industrial base that could make it the leader of a new ‘electrostate’ era.
  3. The tech and financial cycles are shifting—AI-driven hype looks like the wrong kind of bubble, while electrification (batteries, motors, power electronics) and tokenisation of finance are becoming the real structural forces reshaping industry and monetary order.

Why the low multiple series: Rental Car companies edition, part 1

Yet Another Value Blog • 2103 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Earnings Financial Risks
  1. The rental car companies Avis and Hertz are trading at extremely low multiples compared to their earnings.
  2. Investors have concerns about the sustainability of the earnings of rental car companies due to potential overearning from increased rental prices and undervaluation of depreciation from high used car prices.
  3. Despite the record earnings of rental car companies, there are serious bear cases to consider, such as inflated earnings potentially dropping significantly in the future.

No. Fed stimulus doesn't hurt first-time homebuyers

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 27 Jan 26
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Mortgages Monetary Policy Credit Markets Homeownership Housing policy
  1. Changes in mortgage rates mainly shift short-term buying and prices, but they don't plausibly explain large, long-term declines in the share of first-time homebuyers.
  2. Factors like credit access rules, down-payment/LTV constraints, repeat-buyer activity, foreclosure and seller swings, and housing supply shortages are more important and lasting drivers of homeownership patterns.
  3. Empirical models that accumulate transitory rate shocks or use unrealistic assumptions (no construction, exogenous rents) can give misleading causal conclusions, so housing research needs better counterfactuals and out-of-sample testing.

The Evolution of Behavioral Value Investor

Behavioral Value Investor • 118 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
💰 Finance Value investing Behavioral Finance Investment education Portfolio Management Case Studies
  1. A paid tier is launching to help serious investors systematically improve, centered on a weekly "10-Minute Investment Autopsy" case study plus deeper company deep-dives, frameworks, and templates.
  2. Free content and the Value Investing Seminar will remain available, while paid members get a moderated community, regular interaction, an annual Zoom Q&A, and group or educational rates for teams and professors.
  3. The service is explicitly educational, not a stock tip or portfolio service — no public recommendations or portfolio transparency — and aims to improve your investing process with as little as about 30 minutes a week.

Plumbing Notes: The Repo Fortification

Concoda • 340 implied HN points • 03 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Market Analysis Banking Economic Trends Liquidity
  1. The Fed's repo facility is struggling, with many banks hesitant to use it due to a fear of being seen as in trouble. This means that even though rates might be lower, banks are avoiding the facility, impacting liquidity.
  2. Recent efforts like morning Fed repos have been implemented to help banks access cash more easily and reduce exposure to interest rate risks. However, these changes are seen as temporary fixes rather than long-term solutions.
  3. There are still underlying issues, such as the stigma around using the Fed's facilities and costs associated with balance sheets, that need to be addressed for the repo system to work effectively. The Fed may need to take bold actions to restore confidence and improve access to central bank funding.

Je suis libre financièrement

L'Atelier Galita • 39 implied HN points • 03 Oct 24
💰 Finance Personal Finance Investment Financial Independence Income Generation Wealth Management
  1. Knowing how much money you need for a comfortable life is important. Many people struggle to figure out when they have enough and end up always wanting more.
  2. Financial freedom means earning enough money to do what you love without worrying about bills. It's about enjoying your work and feeling financially secure.
  3. There are different paths to financial freedom, like building passive income or earning money from your passions. It's possible to find joy in work while also being financially stable.

❄️ 🎰 Investir dans un monopole monégasque ? Où acheter les ETF Bitcoin ?

Snowball • 1965 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Cryptocurrency Business News Stock Market Economic Analysis
  1. Investing in a Monaco monopoly like SBM can be interesting due to its history and unique position.
  2. The French government agency SISSE has the power to block international investors; exploring its role can be informative.
  3. The SEC's approval of Bitcoin ETFs marked a significant moment, raising questions about the future of decentralized finance and traditional finance.

Top Links 923 If Europe can’t spend big, who can? "A long slow bet on laziness". Meatscape & German Venezuela.

Chartbook • 457 implied HN points • 16 Nov 25
💰 Finance Economy Investment Markets Global Trade Public Policy
  1. Europe needs to spend more to support its economy, and there's a question of who will take that initiative if they don't.
  2. There's a discussion around lazy investment strategies that could hinder economic growth.
  3. The situation in Germany is compared to Venezuela's, highlighting concerns about financial stability and resource management.

Investing Update: The Most Important Chart in the Market

Spilled Coffee • 32 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26
💰 Finance Markets Equities Fixed income Commodities Macro Portfolio Valuation
  1. Gold is soaring (+21.2% YTD) and other defensive assets like oil (+17.2% YTD) and bonds are outperforming, showing investors are favoring safety over growth.
  2. Market breadth is deteriorating even as headline indexes sit near highs — technology, financials, and consumer discretionary are negative YTD and fewer than 60% of stocks in those sectors trade above their 50-day moving averages, signaling narrow leadership and fragility.
  3. Overall sentiment is risk-off: a VIX-based signal, the big YTD drop in Bitcoin (~25%), and close attention to names like Nvidia underline a cautious stance and active rotation away from growth.

Chartbook 396 Strangelove in the Middle East - or how the markets learned to stop worrying and love Israel's rampage.

Chartbook • 1587 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Analysis Corporate Interests
  1. Israel's stock market has seen significant growth since the Hamas attack in October 2023, rising by 80% by July 2025. This shows how investors can benefit even from unstable political situations.
  2. The success of Israel's tech industry, especially in areas like AI and cybersecurity, is a major factor in its strong economy. This technology boom is benefiting Israel's stature in the global market.
  3. Despite the economic success, Israel's internal political situation remains complex and fragile. There are ongoing tensions within its diverse population and government that could affect stability.

My favorite FAANG stock

Compounding Quality • 1690 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
💰 Finance Stocks Investing Technology
  1. FAANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google) have shown impressive performance, but sustainability is a key consideration
  2. Facebook (Meta Platforms) has a massive user base, over 3.96 billion monthly active users
  3. Companies like Apple, Netflix, and Google have interesting founding stories and have evolved significantly over time

Top Links 941 Resilient US consumption & Chinese anti-fatigue monitoring systems. How much do Russian missiles really cost? Warhammer as Thatcherite satire.

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 04 Dec 25
💰 Finance Consumer spending Economic Trends Market Analysis International relations
  1. Even though US consumers are feeling down, they are still spending money. This shows a strong desire to continue buying even in tough times.
  2. China is using monitoring systems to prevent fatigue, which might help improve productivity. This technology is aimed at keeping workers focused and efficient.
  3. The cost of Russian missiles is being questioned, which could influence how countries view military spending and strategy.

Do Homebuilders have an inventory problem?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 05 Feb 26
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Monetary Policy Macroeconomics Investment
  1. Months-of-supply is a misleading metric because it mainly rises when sales fall, so it often just mirrors the sales trend rather than showing true excess inventory.
  2. Builders generally start homes in step with sales, so absolute unsold units haven’t exploded the way the months-of-supply chart suggests, meaning current measures don’t automatically imply dangerous overbuilding.
  3. Policymakers have misread this signal before and worsened downturns, and today the same misinterpretation may be pushing homebuilder stock prices down and could present a buying opportunity.

The Seven Samurai: Big Tech to the Rescue!

Musings on Markets • 1538 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investment Analysis Stock Market Economic Trends Company Valuation
  1. The 'Magnificent Seven' stocks, which include major companies like Apple and Amazon, significantly boosted the US market in 2023. They contributed to over half of the market's growth, highlighting their importance in investing.
  2. These companies have shown strong performance not just recently, but over the past decade. If investors didn't include these stocks, they likely missed out on significant gains.
  3. Despite their past success, investors should be cautious. Valuations for these companies are high now, and prices may drop if they don't meet the high expectations set by the market.

Economics Links, 12/19/2025

In My Tribe • 227 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
💰 Finance Retirement Insurance Housing Wealth Macroeconomics
  1. Annuities give guaranteed lifetime income by shifting market and longevity risk to insurers, but they also mean your heirs won't inherit those assets and many people dislike losing control. Inflation protection is crucial because fixed nominal payouts can leave retirees worse off.
  2. A large part of residential real estate value may be rent extraction from limits on new construction rather than true productive wealth. Still, location-specific advantages like access to jobs and amenities also create genuine value beyond supply constraints.
  3. GDP isn't a perfect measure of wellbeing, but it reliably captures economic development by measuring market transactions, specialization, and trade. Economic growth as measured by GDP often lays the foundation for progress on other social and wellbeing goals.