The hottest Economics Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Business Topics

🚫 AI, job licensing, and upward mobility: A Quick Q&A with … economist Vincent Geloso

Faster, Please! • 274 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Regulation Economics Technology impact
  1. Income mobility issues in the U.S. are mostly caused by regulations, not just technology or automation. More rules can make it harder for people to change jobs and improve their lives.
  2. Access to jobs has become tougher due to increasing occupational licensing. This means people in low- and middle-income jobs face more barriers to enter their professions.
  3. Markets play a big role in income mobility, sometimes even more than social networks. Open markets help more people succeed, while strict regulations can hold them back.

Top Links 555 Main St v. Wall St inflation. Poland and France to block Mercosur. Nigeria's demography & de Gaulle's last picture.

Chartbook • 443 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics Investment Policy Demographics Global Trade
  1. There's a battle between regular people and Wall Street over inflation issues. It's important to understand how this affects everyday life.
  2. Poland and France are planning to block a trade deal with Mercosur. This could impact trade relations in Europe and South America.
  3. Nigeria's growing population is a key topic to watch. It highlights important demographic changes happening today.

AI Surrenders to the Military-Industrial Complex

Nonzero Newsletter • 463 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Military Policy AI Ethics Foreign Policy Economics Technology Industry
  1. AI companies, like Anthropic and Meta, are increasingly collaborating with the military. This shift shows a blending of technology and defense strategies, especially regarding competition with China.
  2. Despite its focus on AI safety, Anthropic has decided to work with the Pentagon. This suggests that even companies with more ethical beginnings can be drawn into military alliances.
  3. The rise of the AI industry's influence in national security is seen as ironic. Many believe cooperation between the US and China in AI could be better for global stability than escalating tensions.

Companies are the new City-States

The Novelleist • 619 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
💼 Business Corporate culture Economics Globalization Innovation
  1. Companies are becoming wealthier and more influential than many countries. For example, Apple has a market value that's larger than the GDP of most nations.
  2. Businesses are more flexible and can adapt quickly to changes. They often provide better working conditions and rights, such as parental leave and healthcare, ahead of government regulations.
  3. Companies can address social issues like education and housing, stepping in where government services may fall short. This makes them more effective at creating positive change in society.

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 9, 2025

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 09 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Investing Market Trends Earnings Reports Global events
  1. This week has important earnings reports from many tech companies like Monday.com and Zillow. Keep an eye on how they perform as it might affect the market.
  2. There are several key economic events in the U.S. this week, such as consumer inflation reports and retail sales. These can give us clues about the economy's health.
  3. Global economic updates are happening too, with events like unemployment rates and industrial production in countries like China, Turkey, and Germany. These will help us understand the international economy.
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The Marriage Market

David Friedman’s Substack • 161 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
🎭️ Culture Marriage Economics Social norms Gender Roles Legal issues
  1. Marriage can be viewed as a market where people offer certain terms to get a partner. If there are fewer options for one gender, the price or terms improve for the other gender.
  2. Having different qualities can change the 'price' of potential spouses. Attractive or compatible people often have better terms in marriage deals, similar to how desirable products are priced in a market.
  3. Legalizing practices like polygyny or polyandry can shift the demand for spouses, leading to better terms for some while making it tougher for others. It may seem confusing, but more choices can change how relationships are valued.

What the East African Plains Ape Anthology Intelligence Has Managed to Do, with Respect to the Economy

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 253 implied HN points • 07 Dec 24
💼 Business Economics Society Growth Institutions Transition
  1. Human society has evolved from slow, agricultural growth to rapid industrial progress, but we still struggle with managing this change effectively.
  2. The historical shift from cooperation to domination in societies has created challenges in creating systems that benefit everyone today.
  3. We have the potential for great prosperity, but we need better institutions to help us use our resources wisely and live well.

Top Links 557 Inflation worries and the US bond market. Russian oil mega merger. Van Gogh & the art of dying.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics Investments Market Trends Bonds Oil
  1. Inflation concerns are becoming a big issue again for the US bond market. This can affect interest rates and borrowing costs for everyone.
  2. There is a significant merger happening in the Russian oil sector. This might change the landscape of oil supply and prices globally.
  3. Van Gogh's life and art are being explored in a new way, touching on themes of mortality and creativity. His work continues to inspire deep reflections on life and death.

How Millennials Grew Up and Got Old

Culture Study • 6861 implied HN points • 15 Oct 23
🎭️ Culture Generations Identity Society Economics Challenges
  1. Millennials are experiencing a shift in societal focus as they move from being the future to the middle generation.
  2. The pandemic has impacted millennials in various ways, from financial challenges to changing perspectives on owning homes.
  3. Millennials are navigating feelings of age and exhaustion, dealing with societal issues and personal milestones.

Top Links 559 Will there be dollar-renminbi dramas in garbage time? Central bank independence in SE Asia & Sartre, Anderson, Jameson.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💰 Finance Global Markets Economics Central Banking Currency Exchange Financial Policy
  1. There could be important developments regarding the dollar and renminbi exchange rates in the near future. This might affect global economics significantly.
  2. The independence of central banks in Southeast Asia is a key topic worth watching. Their decisions can impact regional economies and policies.
  3. The work and ideas of philosophers like Sartre, Anderson, and Jameson are still relevant today. They offer interesting perspectives that connect to current issues.

Jevons Paradox

davidj.substack • 35 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics Investment Technology Efficiency Resource Management
  1. Jevons Paradox shows that when something becomes cheaper to use, people tend to use more of it, which can actually lead to higher overall consumption. This means that efficiency gains may not reduce usage as expected.
  2. When teams save money through efficiency, they're likely to spend their budgets on new projects instead of cutting costs. They want to use their saved money to create more value.
  3. Using tools that are easier and more efficient can lead to discovering new ways to use them, increasing overall spending on those tools instead of cutting back. This often justifies bigger budgets for future projects.

Open Borders and Adverse Selection: A Reply to Khale

Bet On It • 100 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Policy Debate Economics Society
  1. Open borders could be beneficial as immigrants often see a big increase in their wages, which can also help the economy overall.
  2. The vetting system for immigrants doesn't seem very effective, as it may not select for the best candidates.
  3. Concerns about adverse selection are not as strong when looking at actual immigration data, which shows that legal immigrants often bring significant economic gains.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2025-01-20 Mo

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 53 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Economics Insurance History Environment
  1. Watching a video about the Bel Air Fire of 1961 can give you insight into historical events and their impacts. It's important to learn from past events to understand current issues better.
  2. Insurance costs for properties are changing and it's something to keep an eye on. Rising costs can affect how we plan our finances when it comes to home and property.
  3. Subscribing to informative newsletters can lead to valuable knowledge. Engaging with these types of content can help you stay updated and informed.

Top Links 558 Lending against chips. Cuba's oil collapse. India's financial revolution & Unger on our counterrevolutionary interlude.

Chartbook • 357 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Economics Banking Market Trends Global Finance
  1. There's a growing trend of lending money using chips as collateral, which shows a new way to finance activities. It's like using your poker chips to get cash when you need it!
  2. Cuba's oil industry is facing major challenges, leading to significant changes in the economy there. This might affect everyday life for many Cubans.
  3. India is undergoing a financial revolution that is reshaping how its economy works. This could create more opportunities for people and businesses in the country.

Winning iPhone Orders is no Longer Victory

Tim Culpan’s Position • 39 implied HN points • 11 Sep 24
💼 Business Economics Supply Chain Manufacturing Technology Market Trends
  1. Luxshare and Foxconn are both working on assembling iPhones, but Luxshare's recent orders don't seem to bring in much more money for the company. Their iPhone assembly success hasn't led to significant revenue growth.
  2. Apple is a big client for both companies, but they are overly dependent on it. Luxshare's reliance on Apple for 75% of its revenue is worrying for investors, especially as Apple's overall sales have been slowing.
  3. To succeed, Luxshare might need to expand into new areas like AI servers rather than just focusing on iPhones. However, they face challenges in doing this and need to be cautious about their future strategies.

Top Links 550 Buffett's cash pile. China's copper push. IKEA and GDR prison labor & the UK as "Butler to the World"

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investment Economics Market Trends Corporate Governance Global Trade
  1. Warren Buffett has a huge amount of cash saved up. This shows he is waiting for the right investment opportunities to come along.
  2. China is putting a lot of effort into boosting its copper industry. This could have big effects on global markets and trade.
  3. There are serious concerns about IKEA's involvement with past prison labor. This raises questions about ethical practices in big companies.

In Spite of All the "Don't Worry" Whispers from Scott Bessent's Affinity, the Rest of Us Are Not Outside But Inside the Chaos-Monkey Cage with Trump

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 169 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Leadership Economics Chaos Theory
  1. There's a strong chance for chaos over the next four years, and keeping Trump in check seems very difficult.
  2. Trump's approach to information is problematic, often spreading misinformation which increases the risk of bad policies.
  3. Economists are uncertain about the economic impact of Trump's plans, but history suggests that chaotic decisions will likely lead to negative outcomes.

Digital tug-of-war

Working Theorys • 72 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics Entrepreneurship Corporate Governance Education
  1. The debate over banning TikTok is making people more aware of digital trade. It shows how important it is in the economy, making up a big part of global trade now.
  2. Business schools, especially MBA programs, are facing criticism for not preparing students for job markets well. They're seen more as a time to learn and network rather than just a pathway to a job.
  3. Many CEOs who step down often come back, bringing fresh ideas and perspectives. This trend shows how important past experiences can be in reshaping a company's vision.

December 2024 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💼 Business Construction Employment Economics Market Trends Real Estate
  1. Construction jobs are slowly increasing, reflecting overall job growth in the economy. This could mean more houses being built soon.
  2. There seems to be uncertainty in the construction market, as it doesn't fit historical patterns. It's unclear if residential construction jobs will continue to rise or stabilize.
  3. A lag in supply chains might be causing delays in construction. This suggests that the housing market might improve once those supply issues are resolved.

Winner Takes All

Doomberg • 5270 implied HN points • 17 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Cryptocurrency Economics
  1. In the stock market, rapid swings in market value can be astonishing, such as Nvidia's $270 billion intraday swing – highlighting the unpredictable nature of markets.
  2. Rampant speculation in assets like Bitcoin can be a sign of impending currency devaluation, drawing parallels to historical financial crises like the Weimar Hyperinflation.
  3. Michael Saylor's aggressive strategy of leveraging debt to buy Bitcoin with MicroStrategy serves as a unique case study of riding high in the volatile crypto market, showcasing the power of 'pumpamentals.'

Top Links 549 Markets holding their breath. BBQ and shale productivity. Liberal academia & the Space Force.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
💰 Finance Markets Economics Productivity Academic Space
  1. Markets seem to be very tense right now. People are watching closely for changes and updates.
  2. BBQ and shale productivity are highlighted as important topics. These areas are crucial in economic discussions.
  3. There's a mention of the intersection between liberal academia and the Space Force. This could spark interesting debates and insights.

OpenAI: Economic Justice Delayed

Dana Blankenhorn: Facing the Future • 39 implied HN points • 03 Oct 24
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Investment Startups Innovation Economics
  1. OpenAI recently received a large investment to avoid bankruptcy, but experts think financial troubles may still be on the way. There's skepticism about how sustainable their business model is.
  2. The promises of AI, like improving productivity and creativity, often don't match up with what users actually experience. Many believe AI tools still have major limitations.
  3. The funding from investors seems more focused on finding a quick profit than on genuinely improving AI technology. There's a worry that this could lead to a crash if expectations aren't met.

Aura of Success: The First Years of Japan's Privatized National Railways

S(ubstack)-Bahn • 341 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💼 Business Privatization Transportation Railways Economics
  1. Japan's privatized national railways, known as JR, started with a big public celebration but hid serious financial issues. The debt from the old national rail system was moved to a new agency, allowing JR to look profitable right from the start.
  2. To make the railways seem successful, the government cut jobs and weakened labor unions, which helped JR reduce costs and shift focus to customer service, making it appear more efficient.
  3. While JR showed initial profitability and ridership growth, the reality is that public funding and clever accounting masked ongoing financial struggles, leading to a significant government bailout years later.

Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Employment Surveys Demographics Labor Market
  1. The Household Survey and Establishment Survey both track employment, but there was a significant gap in their growth estimates over the years. Recent updates have nearly closed this gap.
  2. New population estimates showed that previous estimates of employment growth were too low, mainly due to underestimating international migration. This has led to a big revision upward in the Household Survey employment numbers.
  3. Now, both surveys show similar employment growth trends, which suggests that the labor market may not be as weak as previously thought.

Innovation Job Market Papers 2024 (3/3)

New Things Under the Sun • 192 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
💼 Business Innovation Economics R&D Entrepreneurship Globalization Technology
  1. Many new PhD researchers are studying innovation topics in their job market papers. These papers are valuable for understanding current trends in technology and business.
  2. Some research focuses on how companies adapt their innovation strategies in response to challenges like climate change and competition. This shows that innovation is not just about new ideas but also about practical responses to real-world issues.
  3. There is growing interest in how digital platforms influence entrepreneurship. These platforms can help small businesses thrive and increase diversity in the market, which benefits consumers.

Top Links 548 A productivity surge in the US oil industry. Taiwan's AI exports. The price of data and Joan Didion putting the boot in.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💼 Business Economics Industry Technology Productivity Trade
  1. The US oil industry is experiencing a big boost in productivity, which is likely affecting the overall economy.
  2. Taiwan is making significant strides in AI exports, indicating growth in tech and innovation in the region.
  3. There are rising concerns about the value of data in today's world, reflecting how important and expensive information has become.

Top Links 554 Defending the Fed. Betting on investment. China in Peru & Pakistan's counterinsurgency campaign.

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investment Economics Policy International Analysis
  1. The Federal Reserve plays a crucial role in managing the economy, and there are discussions about its actions and decisions. Understanding how the Fed works can help people make sense of economic changes.
  2. Investing is a key topic, indicating that people are looking for ways to grow their money even in uncertain times. Betting on good investments can lead to financial gain in the future.
  3. China's involvement in countries like Peru shows its global influence. Additionally, Pakistan's counterinsurgency efforts highlight ongoing challenges in maintaining security and stability.

Searching for von Neumann

Malt Liquidity • 12 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Trading Investing Economics Market Analysis Personal Finance
  1. Finding purpose and fulfillment can be hard, especially when success feels empty. It's important to keep moving and searching for what truly matters in life.
  2. Recognizing our intellectual heroes, like John von Neumann, can inspire us, but it’s also crucial to understand that not everyone's contributions are widely acknowledged.
  3. The changing perception of careers and value in society can lead to a more significant transformation. Future views on work, retirement, and success may look very different.

Crypto Cannot Avoid The Iron Laws of Economics

Points And Figures • 506 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🔮 Crypto Cryptocurrency Economics Blockchain Finance Investment
  1. Cryptocurrency operates under economic principles just like any other market. If costs to create or maintain it exceed profits, it won't succeed.
  2. A recent study highlights that cryptocurrencies may struggle to scale due to high security costs, making them potentially less efficient than traditional financial systems.
  3. While cryptocurrencies aimed to remove the need for legal systems and intermediaries, they still require a level of trust that can be expensive and complex to maintain.

Crazy bets on 2025 - 12 personal hedge funds predict the year

Five Links (and three graphs) by Auren Hoffman • 56 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Predictions Economics Betting Market Analysis
  1. A group of twelve people made predictions about 2025 and placed bets on the outcomes. This makes it fun and competitive to see who can guess the future better.
  2. Last year's predictions didn't go well overall, with only a few being correct. It shows that forecasting the future can be really tricky.
  3. This year, they have some bold predictions about events in politics, the economy, and culture. Some predictions sound far-fetched, but others seem more likely.

OSD 309: You can’t ban things that have hit escape velocity

Open Source Defense • 38 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Government Economics Civil Rights Social Issues
  1. Once something becomes very popular and widely used, it's really hard to ban it. People may talk about banning things like TikTok or certain guns, but actually doing it is much tougher.
  2. Banning things is often just talk. Many who support a ban won't follow through if it means facing real consequences or backlash.
  3. Public opinion shifts as something becomes more popular. Just like with TikTok and guns, the more people that use something, the harder it becomes to take it away from them.

The Rise of Western Individualism

Rob Henderson's Newsletter • 4431 implied HN points • 17 Mar 24
🎭️ Culture Psychology History Society Religion Economics
  1. Western individualism stems from historical factors like the power of the Western Church and its unique taboos on family structures.
  2. WEIRD societies have distinct characteristics: hyper-individualism, focus on intentions, patience for delayed gratification, and a willingness to adhere to rules even without enforcement.
  3. The rise of Western individualism influenced laws, innovation, and economic prosperity, with key factors like belief in moralizing gods, influence of formal institutions, and the impact of impersonal markets.

Wall Street Investors Enter Single Family Rentals

Arpitrage • 339 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Real Estate Market Trends Economics Regulations
  1. Large institutional investors are entering the single-family rental market, which affects housing affordability. They often buy homes in high-demand areas, leading to concerns about rising house prices.
  2. These big investors have cost advantages over small landlords. They can charge lower rents due to better management and bargaining power, which can help some renters find affordable housing.
  3. The overall impact of these investors on home prices is mixed. While they might push prices up in certain markets, their presence can also increase rental availability, benefiting some renters despite potential price hikes.

Money is a Test (What Money Means)

Neckar’s Notes • 120 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Currency Economics Investment Wealth Management
  1. Money changes people's lives and values in big ways. For example, in post-Soviet society, people had to quickly learn what money meant, which turned traditional roles upside down.
  2. It's said that everyone believes in money, even if they don't share the same beliefs about religion or nationalism. Money is that powerful and universal.
  3. Our feelings about money often come from our past and family. It's not just about numbers; it's an emotional subject that many struggle with.

Will AI Cause Massive Deflation?

cryptoeconomy • 1493 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economics Technology Central Banking Inflation Deflation
  1. There will not be durable deflation in the future unless major changes happen to the dollar or the Federal Reserve.
  2. Technology like AI can lead to deflation by lowering prices, but central banks like the Federal Reserve counteract this by absorbing the deflation.
  3. A special type of bad deflation occurs when dollars are taken out of circulation, often due to events like financial panics, leading to economic challenges.

Buffett's Blueprint

Neckar’s Notes • 15 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💼 Business Investing Finance Economics Entrepreneurship Leadership
  1. Warren Buffett combined reading with building strong relationships to grow his wealth. Both his knowledge and connections helped him succeed.
  2. Buffett pursued wealth in a way that was meaningful and enjoyable to him, focusing on personal growth and independence.
  3. The next Buffett will be proactive in seeking knowledge and crafting their own path, rather than just copying what others did.