The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 19 May 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economics Insurance Cryptocurrency
  1. Investing in utilities could be a smart move as demand for power grows due to the rise of AI and data centers.
  2. The stock market has shown strong recent performance, with predictions of further gains this year based on solid earnings and market momentum.
  3. There's a noticeable trend in retail investors participating in meme stocks, indicating a lasting shift in how a generation approaches investing in the stock market.

💳 Visa & Mastercard: Priceless

How They Make Money • 628 implied HN points • 21 Feb 23
💰 Finance Payment processing
  1. Payment processing involves authorization, clearing, and settlement to ensure secure and efficient transactions.
  2. Visa and Mastercard are key players in the payment processing world, providing infrastructure and facilitating fund flow.
  3. Companies like acquirers, payment networks, issuers, gateways, and ISOs play essential roles in the payment ecosystem.

Inflation: it's "complicated"

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) • 628 implied HN points • 25 May 23
💰 Finance Inflation Labor Market Market Power
  1. Inflation is influenced by a variety of factors such as supply disruptions, commodity prices, labor market strength, and demand for goods.
  2. The discussion around workers having the upper hand in the labor market is complex and requires consideration of inflation expectations, wage growth, and job market tightness.
  3. Inflation expectations are stable, showing that markets and consumers anticipate a return to normal inflation levels, which is crucial for combating inflation.
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Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 79 implied HN points • 16 Jun 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Financial Analysis Market Strategies
  1. Broadcom's stock has seen a significant increase, driven by high demand for its AI products, and investors are optimistic about its future.
  2. Experts, including AI leaders, warn that tech companies need to invest more in AI safety as competition grows, emphasizing the potential risks if AI surpasses human intelligence.
  3. The market for obesity drugs is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, with major companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly leading the way, indicating a strong investment opportunity.

Software Is Fine

Software Snack Bites • 21 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26
💰 Finance Markets Investing Venture Capital Valuation Tech Stocks Trading
  1. AI-native startups will be able to build and maintain custom software more cheaply and could disrupt incumbents, but real-world issues like trust, ongoing maintenance, and company adoption still limit immediate wholesale replacement.
  2. The recent drop in many software stocks is driven largely by market flows, hedging, and correlated selling with semiconductors and datacenter names, not a fundamental ‘end of software’ story.
  3. Top-quality software companies are relatively resilient, but founders of legacy or pre-AI products need to add clear AI-driven growth hooks to earn premium multiples as markets reprice.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 18 Aug 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economics Financial News Market Analysis
  1. Stocks linked to housing and utilities might do well as interest rates drop. Investors are looking at companies like Lennar and Home Depot.
  2. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has recently bought shares in Ulta Beauty and Heico Corp, while also reducing its stake in Apple.
  3. Mars is buying Kellanova, which could change the snack food market by creating a stronger competitor to companies like Pepsi and Hershey.

Country Risk: A July 2023 Update

Musings on Markets • 739 implied HN points • 26 Jul 23
💰 Finance Risk Assessment Investment Analysis Economic Factors Political Risk Global Markets
  1. Country risk factors include political systems, corruption, legal protections, and violence, which all affect how safe it is to do business in different countries.
  2. Democratic countries often have continuous risks from changing governments, while authoritarian regimes can present sudden and severe risks, making it tricky for businesses to decide where to invest.
  3. Corruption adds hidden costs to businesses operating in affected regions, making it crucial for companies to understand both the visible and hidden risks in their chosen markets.

Repost: Armed conflict investor survival guide

Klement on Investing • 6 implied HN points • 19 Feb 26
💰 Finance Investing Equities Risk management Macroeconomics Inflation Commodities Asset allocation
  1. Don’t panic — most geopolitical shocks don’t hurt equity performance beyond a few weeks, so avoid rushing to sell and consider buying risky assets when they dip.
  2. Use a simple checklist before acting: ask whether infrastructure is damaged, whether inflation will stay high, and whether real interest rates will shift, since each outcome calls for different sector decisions.
  3. Only make major portfolio changes if the effects are persistent (more than a year) on inflation, earnings, or rates; short-term market fear is usually noise and a buying opportunity.

A data-driven insight into German transfer fraud: 7.594 cases

Altay's Blog • 1 HN point • 30 Sep 24
💰 Finance Fraud Banking E-commerce Scams Data Analysis
  1. Many people in Germany lose money to transfer fraud each year because scammers trick them into thinking their payments are safe. They use methods like fake online shops to steal money without delivering any products.
  2. Scammers often use tricks to hide their identities, like opening bank accounts under fake names or recruiting unsuspecting people to help. These tactics make it hard for banks to catch them right away.
  3. There are rules called Know-Your-Customer (KYC) that banks must follow to verify customer identities. When these rules are not strong, it can lead to more fraud, but better KYC practices can help reduce these scams.

2024 Predictions

The Dollar Endgame • 359 implied HN points • 13 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Monetary Policy Inflation Government spending Market Analysis
  1. The Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting rates by Q2 or Q3 and possibly implement quantitative easing, based on recent signals and market predictions.
  2. There is an anticipation that the Fed will eventually restart quantitative easing due to factors like high deficits and pressure from the Monetary Black Hole, impacting financial markets and assets.
  3. Inflation is expected to return in the near future as liquidity programs kick in, fiscal deficits grow, and government spending increases, potentially leading to economic challenges and a recession.

Dry Powder

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
💰 Finance Investing Markets Macro Portfolio Valuation Risk management Asset allocation
  1. Keep significant dry powder—cash or short-term investments—so you can act quickly on big opportunities or cover emergencies; if possible aim for millions, but at minimum have enough (e.g., $100k+) to avoid forced selling.
  2. US equities look richly priced by several measures (market-cap-to-GDP, Shiller PE, and heavy tech concentration), which raises the odds of low or negative returns in the years ahead.
  3. Investor complacency and low volatility mean now is a time to be defensive and plan to buy optionality during market stress (and consider writing optionality when volatility spikes), using cash to take advantage of forced-selling opportunities.

Quadrilemma

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 373 implied HN points • 06 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics Markets Investments Federal Reserve Policy
  1. The market outlook suggests it's time to increase exposure to cyclical sectors.
  2. Understanding the market implied policy path, earnings expectations, and the Fed's reaction function is crucial for making strategic investment decisions.
  3. A healthy broadening out in the market may require certain economic conditions to be met, like unemployment rates and average hourly earnings.

bankruptcy for the little people

Dan Davies - "Back of Mind" • 294 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💰 Finance Bankruptcy Debt Legal system Corporations
  1. Bankruptcy rules differ for individuals and corporations, with implications for creditors and stakeholders.
  2. Bankruptcy can have significant economic consequences, especially for employees, suppliers, and other parties dependent on the company's operations.
  3. Some companies without operations can exploit bankruptcy laws to avoid liabilities, highlighting issues with the limited liability system.

Long Take: FDIC consent order vs. $3B banking-as-a-service champion Cross River Bank

The Fintech Blueprint • 609 implied HN points • 03 May 23
💰 Finance Banking Regulation Crypto Stablecoins Financial Crisis
  1. The FDIC is closely monitoring banking practices to ensure systemic stability during a crisis.
  2. Cross River Bank, a $3B banking-as-a-service champion, is under scrutiny and must comply with a consent order.
  3. Regulators are concerned about fintech companies entering the banking sector without proper oversight.

Thoughts on Inflation

America in Crisis • 139 implied HN points • 01 May 24
💰 Finance Inflation Interest Rates Government Policy Economic History
  1. The reduced-price model shows how cycles in prices correspond to inflation, especially during wartime when inflation tends to be higher due to deficit spending.
  2. The quantity theory of money explains the relationship between economic activity, money supply, and inflation, showcasing the importance of monetary factors in historical economic events.
  3. Analyzing the current inflation outlook using the money balance model highlights the potential for continued inflationary pressures and the challenges the Federal Reserve faces in managing inflation through interest rate adjustments.

Bitcoin Flows Fuel Breakout as Recession Process Continues

Bitcoin Magazine Pro • 294 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
💰 Finance Bitcoin ETFs Recession Central Bank Digital Currency
  1. Bitcoin price has been stable since December, ETF flows are positive, and impacts of macroeconomics are discussed.
  2. Bitcoin is becoming a significant force in the global economy, with nations like El Salvador and Argentina leading in Bitcoin adoption.
  3. US market approach to Bitcoin includes large ETF investments by BlackRock and Fidelity, indicating growing interest and demand.

Issue #145: Nubank Secures US Charter Green Light, PicPay's IPO Breaks Brazil's Four-Year Drought, And Mastercard’s Agentic Payments Move in Australia

Fintech Radar • 14 implied HN points • 01 Feb 26
💰 Finance Fintech Banking Payments Crypto Regulation Capital Markets Venture Capital AI
  1. Nubank got conditional OCC approval to form a US national bank and is building hubs in Miami, San Francisco, Northern Virginia, and the Research Triangle, signaling a fast start to US expansion. Regulators appear to be streamlining the charter process, making US entry easier for big neobanks.
  2. PicPay priced its Nasdaq IPO at the top of the range with heavy oversubscription, breaking a four-year drought of Brazilian companies listing in New York. The deal shows investors now favor fintechs that combine growth with profitability, reopening the IPO window for LatAm players.
  3. Mastercard completed authenticated agentic transactions in Australia, letting AI agents buy on users’ behalf but requiring biometric approval, which moves agentic commerce from concept to production. This makes payments networks a key trust and authentication layer if AI-driven shopping scales.

How SP culture produces financial crisis

America in Crisis • 59 implied HN points • 01 Jul 24
💰 Finance Financial Crisis Economic Growth Corporate Profits Capitalism Taxation
  1. Financial crisis can stem from a shift in profit usage from investment to financial market growth, impacting economic growth.
  2. SP culture, focusing on shareholder returns through stock buybacks and dividends, can lead to financial instability and economic downturns.
  3. Minsky's financial instability hypothesis outlines how capitalist economies can transition from safe to risky financial structures, culminating in financial crises.

Auto Partner: A Boring Business with Brilliant Results

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 539 implied HN points • 23 Nov 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Business Growth Financial Performance Investment Opportunities
  1. Auto Partner, a distributor of spare parts, is focusing on automation to strengthen its distribution capabilities and increase competitiveness.
  2. The company's revenue growth is attributed to market responsiveness, geographic expansion, and effective management of economic challenges.
  3. Auto Partner's growth strategy includes building new hubs, expanding branches, and increasing automation in warehouses and logistics to prepare for potential expansion into other verticals.

[2025–2026] Week 13: You Can Be a Stock Market Genius by Joel Greenblatt

Behavioral Value Investor • 29 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
💰 Finance Value investing Behavioral Finance Valuation Portfolio Management Investment education
  1. Human behavior keeps repeating, so psychological biases and recurring irrationality are central to how markets misprice securities.
  2. Come to the market with a clear, entrenched investment process and a strong sense of who you are, because learning by trading costs you dearly; identity and anxiety often drive choices more than cold arithmetic.
  3. Special situations like spin-offs, restructurings, rights offerings and takeovers create repeatable templates to find mispriced assets, so evaluating which categories are more efficient today and compiling candidate opportunities is a practical next step.

Survival - for now

Comment is Freed • 76 implied HN points • 27 Nov 25
💰 Finance Fiscal policy Taxation Public Finance Debt Markets Macroeconomics
  1. The budget was a survival-first choice: ministers avoided big political risks and didn’t raise earned income tax, relying instead on smaller, targeted tax changes and fiscal creep.
  2. That approach buys short-term stability — a relatively kind OBR forecast and targeted moves (like ending the two-child benefit limit) should prevent market panic and help keep poll ratings steady.
  3. But it mostly defers hard problems: weaker productivity, higher welfare and debt costs, and postponed reforms mean bigger fiscal risks and tougher choices are likely to come back later.

The 1%

Market Sentiment • 589 implied HN points • 09 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investing Wealth Management Asset allocation Equities Real Estate
  1. Many millionaires invest their money wisely, not just through income.
  2. The top 1% of Americans own more stocks than the other 99%, highlighting the importance of investing in equities for wealth growth.
  3. Affluent retail investors typically have a long-term risk orientation with high equity exposure and minimal panic selling tendencies.

Long Take: The craft of scaling fintechs beyond their niche -- analyzing Twitter, Bunq, and Goldman Sachs

The Fintech Blueprint • 589 implied HN points • 02 Aug 23
💰 Finance Fintech Startups Market Analysis Business Growth Investments
  1. The craft of scaling fintechs involves understanding successful growth drivers and failures
  2. Successful business building requires targeting disruptive technologies to the right market with demand
  3. Goldman Sachs' exit from consumer business contrasts with neobanks like Bunq's profitability and growth in their niche

What is a Derivative?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 279 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Risk management Market Analysis Financial Instruments Trading Strategies
  1. Derivatives are financial tools that get their value from something else, like stocks or commodities. They don't have value on their own; their worth depends on the performance of the underlying asset.
  2. Derivatives exist to help with risk management, leverage potential gains, and allow speculation on price movements. They can protect investments or amplify losses based on how they're used.
  3. There are different types of derivatives, including futures, options, and swaps. Each has its own way of working, but all can increase financial risk if not used carefully.

7 Things You Should Do Before the Coming Bear Market

Behavioral Value Investor • 89 implied HN points • 17 Nov 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Risk management Financial planning Economic Trends
  1. Write down your investment process so you can stick to it during a market crisis. It helps remind you of your strategies when emotions run high.
  2. Focus on long-term investments instead of short-term gains. This way, you can stay on track and not get swayed by temporary market changes.
  3. Be patient and only invest in solid companies at fair prices. This gives you room to make smart choices instead of panicking in a bear market.

Understanding ETFs

DeFi Education • 519 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Crypto Regulations ETFs
  1. ETFs are investment funds that hold a collection of assets and are traded like stocks. They aim to track the performance of an index or asset class.
  2. Creating your own ETF is complicated and needs approval from regulators. It’s not as easy as just launching a product; there's a lot of scrutiny involved.
  3. ETFs have a unique process for buying and selling called creation and redemption. This helps keep their price in line with the value of the assets they hold.

Powell’s Confidence On Trial, Gold Rips Higher

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 31 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Bank Financial Markets Currency Precious metals
  1. A criminal probe of the Fed chair risks undermining Federal Reserve independence and makes monetary policy look vulnerable to political or legal pressure.
  2. That uncertainty is negative for US risk assets and the dollar in the near term, and it can disrupt Treasury markets and capital flows.
  3. Over the long run, weakening confidence in US monetary institutions could speed global diversification away from the dollar and lift safe-haven assets like gold and silver.