The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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PETITION • 1906 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💰 Finance Bankruptcy
  1. Bankruptcy activity for big names like New York Community Bancorp Inc., Spirit Airlines Inc., and others remains low despite speculation.
  2. The amount of high yield bonds trading distressed has significantly decreased since the start of 2024.
  3. Distressed exchange activity has become a popular alternative to Chapter 11 filings, with experts predicting even busier times ahead for 2024.

Is Someone Attacking the Comex? January Sees $5.2B in Gold Deliveries

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 36 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Analysis Economic Forecast
  1. January saw a huge amount of gold delivered at $5.2B, which is unusual for a minor month like this.
  2. There's been a consistent trend of new contracts being opened and settled for delivery instead of the usual early demand drops.
  3. The Comex has restocked its gold inventory significantly, which raises questions about future deliveries and potential market impacts.

Top Links 557 Inflation worries and the US bond market. Russian oil mega merger. Van Gogh & the art of dying.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics Investments Market Trends Bonds Oil
  1. Inflation concerns are becoming a big issue again for the US bond market. This can affect interest rates and borrowing costs for everyone.
  2. There is a significant merger happening in the Russian oil sector. This might change the landscape of oil supply and prices globally.
  3. Van Gogh's life and art are being explored in a new way, touching on themes of mortality and creativity. His work continues to inspire deep reflections on life and death.
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How Would Fearmongers and Doomers Invest in The Stock Market?

OK Doomer • 151 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Policy Financial advice Wealth Management
  1. Many financial influencers spread fear about economic crashes but offer vague advice, like hoarding cash or buying during dips. It's not very helpful or specific.
  2. These influencers often blame the government for economic issues while ignoring their own role in creating panic. They don't really care about everyday people's financial well-being.
  3. Overall, the advice given is more about generating fear and attention rather than providing real, sound financial guidance. It’s like eating unhealthy protein bars instead of nutritious food.

Top Links 559 Will there be dollar-renminbi dramas in garbage time? Central bank independence in SE Asia & Sartre, Anderson, Jameson.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💰 Finance Global Markets Economics Central Banking Currency Exchange Financial Policy
  1. There could be important developments regarding the dollar and renminbi exchange rates in the near future. This might affect global economics significantly.
  2. The independence of central banks in Southeast Asia is a key topic worth watching. Their decisions can impact regional economies and policies.
  3. The work and ideas of philosophers like Sartre, Anderson, and Jameson are still relevant today. They offer interesting perspectives that connect to current issues.

Long Take: Will BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise or GBTC win the Bitcoin ETF launch?

The Fintech Blueprint • 2181 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
💰 Finance Bitcoin ETFs Regulation
  1. Recent approval of 11 Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC reflects growing acceptance of cryptocurrency among younger demographics.
  2. Bitcoin ETFs integrate crypto assets into traditional financial infrastructure, appealing to high-net-worth individuals and institutional investors.
  3. ETFs enable easier access to crypto assets through traditional sales channels and contribute to financial adoption of the crypto asset class.

Top Links 558 Lending against chips. Cuba's oil collapse. India's financial revolution & Unger on our counterrevolutionary interlude.

Chartbook • 357 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Economics Banking Market Trends Global Finance
  1. There's a growing trend of lending money using chips as collateral, which shows a new way to finance activities. It's like using your poker chips to get cash when you need it!
  2. Cuba's oil industry is facing major challenges, leading to significant changes in the economy there. This might affect everyday life for many Cubans.
  3. India is undergoing a financial revolution that is reshaping how its economy works. This could create more opportunities for people and businesses in the country.

Onward and Upward Past 5,000 As Communist China Swoons and AI Destroys More Jobs

Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America • 1768 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Geopolitics Inflation Investing Artificial Intelligence
  1. The stock market has shown a technical rally with S&P 500 surpassing 5000, driven by trend traders focusing more on technical aspects than fundamentals.
  2. Artificial intelligence is significantly impacting the job market, with companies using AI for tasks like layoff decisions, with some notable companies like United Parcel Service and BlackRock making significant staff reductions.
  3. China's economy is being compared to past scenarios like Japan's real estate market crash, highlighting concerns about potential global repercussions.

Top Links 550 Buffett's cash pile. China's copper push. IKEA and GDR prison labor & the UK as "Butler to the World"

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investment Economics Market Trends Corporate Governance Global Trade
  1. Warren Buffett has a huge amount of cash saved up. This shows he is waiting for the right investment opportunities to come along.
  2. China is putting a lot of effort into boosting its copper industry. This could have big effects on global markets and trade.
  3. There are serious concerns about IKEA's involvement with past prison labor. This raises questions about ethical practices in big companies.

The Bonds And The Stock Market

Points And Figures • 586 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Policy Interest Rates Stock Analysis
  1. The stock market has experienced various crashes in the past, but today there are better systems in place to prevent a major crash like in 1987. It's still possible to see market dips, but the overall structure is stronger now.
  2. Interest rates on government bonds are rising, which could impact the stock market negatively if rates reach certain levels. Keeping an eye on these rates is important for understanding market trends.
  3. Government spending is a concern, and both political parties aren't talking about reducing it. If spending continues unchecked, it could lead to serious economic issues in the future.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis Investment Housing Market
  1. The Case-Shiller National House Price Index increased by 3.8% year-over-year in November, indicating rising home prices. This is a good sign for homeowners as it shows property values are generally going up.
  2. House prices rose by 0.3% in November according to the FHFA index, showing a slower growth rate compared to previous years. It suggests that higher mortgage rates might be affecting buyers' demand.
  3. New York had the highest annual home price increase at 7.3%, while Tampa saw a decline of 0.4%. Different regions are experiencing varying trends in home price changes.

Measurement Army

Doomberg • 5751 implied HN points • 25 Feb 24
💰 Finance Environmental Investment Regulation Markets Economy
  1. Modern economic systems struggle to account for environmental costs, leading to government interventions and frustrations among capitalists and landowners.
  2. The global focus on carbon emissions has led to the rise of carbon counting professionals, but many argue their value is limited.
  3. A proposal to create Natural Asset Companies (NACs) faced controversy when seeking to put a market price on nature, highlighting potential unintended consequences and opposition.

Winner Takes All

Doomberg • 5270 implied HN points • 17 Mar 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Cryptocurrency Economics
  1. In the stock market, rapid swings in market value can be astonishing, such as Nvidia's $270 billion intraday swing – highlighting the unpredictable nature of markets.
  2. Rampant speculation in assets like Bitcoin can be a sign of impending currency devaluation, drawing parallels to historical financial crises like the Weimar Hyperinflation.
  3. Michael Saylor's aggressive strategy of leveraging debt to buy Bitcoin with MicroStrategy serves as a unique case study of riding high in the volatile crypto market, showcasing the power of 'pumpamentals.'

Why the low multiple series: Rental Car companies edition, part 1

Yet Another Value Blog • 2103 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Earnings Financial Risks
  1. The rental car companies Avis and Hertz are trading at extremely low multiples compared to their earnings.
  2. Investors have concerns about the sustainability of the earnings of rental car companies due to potential overearning from increased rental prices and undervaluation of depreciation from high used car prices.
  3. Despite the record earnings of rental car companies, there are serious bear cases to consider, such as inflated earnings potentially dropping significantly in the future.

Top Links 549 Markets holding their breath. BBQ and shale productivity. Liberal academia & the Space Force.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
💰 Finance Markets Economics Productivity Academic Space
  1. Markets seem to be very tense right now. People are watching closely for changes and updates.
  2. BBQ and shale productivity are highlighted as important topics. These areas are crucial in economic discussions.
  3. There's a mention of the intersection between liberal academia and the Space Force. This could spark interesting debates and insights.

Investing Update: Insiders & Hedge Funds Bearish?

Spilled Coffee • 48 implied HN points • 01 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Hedge Funds Stock Performance Economic Trends
  1. January showed positive trends for the Dow, indicating a potentially good year for the market. The Dow was up 4.7%, a promising start compared to the other indexes.
  2. Many S&P 500 stocks are reaching new highs, suggesting a strong market performance. This is the highest level since last November, which could be a positive sign.
  3. Investors are shifting money into U.S. equities, with noticeable inflows in financials and consumer cyclical sectors. This trend indicates growing confidence in these areas.

CBW Fights FDIC's $20.5 Million Penalty That Could "Imperil" Its Existence

Fintech Business Weekly • 89 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
💰 Finance Banking Regulation Investment Fintech Risk management
  1. CBW is facing a huge $20.5 million fine from the FDIC, which could put its future at risk. This penalty is due to failures in its anti-money laundering practices.
  2. A small Kansas bank, CBW, has made a lot of money from international services but hasn't fixed issues raised by regulators in past reviews. They were supposed to improve but didn't make significant changes.
  3. The FDIC argues that the situation with CBW highlights serious compliance problems in the banking sector. They are trying to enforce rules to prevent money laundering, especially in high-risk areas.

Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Employment Surveys Demographics Labor Market
  1. The Household Survey and Establishment Survey both track employment, but there was a significant gap in their growth estimates over the years. Recent updates have nearly closed this gap.
  2. New population estimates showed that previous estimates of employment growth were too low, mainly due to underestimating international migration. This has led to a big revision upward in the Household Survey employment numbers.
  3. Now, both surveys show similar employment growth trends, which suggests that the labor market may not be as weak as previously thought.

Je suis libre financièrement

L'Atelier Galita • 39 implied HN points • 03 Oct 24
💰 Finance Personal Finance Investment Financial Independence Income Generation Wealth Management
  1. Knowing how much money you need for a comfortable life is important. Many people struggle to figure out when they have enough and end up always wanting more.
  2. Financial freedom means earning enough money to do what you love without worrying about bills. It's about enjoying your work and feeling financially secure.
  3. There are different paths to financial freedom, like building passive income or earning money from your passions. It's possible to find joy in work while also being financially stable.

❄️ 🎰 Investir dans un monopole monégasque ? Où acheter les ETF Bitcoin ?

Snowball • 1965 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Cryptocurrency Business News Stock Market Economic Analysis
  1. Investing in a Monaco monopoly like SBM can be interesting due to its history and unique position.
  2. The French government agency SISSE has the power to block international investors; exploring its role can be informative.
  3. The SEC's approval of Bitcoin ETFs marked a significant moment, raising questions about the future of decentralized finance and traditional finance.

Walking In Memphis

Behavioral Value Investor • 148 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investment Market Trends Personal Finance Behavioral Finance
  1. When people are in pain or facing difficulties, it's easy to think that things will never get better. It's important to remember that these tough times are usually temporary.
  2. Using past pains can help us grow and improve, especially in things like investing. Instead of giving up, we should learn from our experiences and stick to our tried-and-true methods.
  3. The future is often different from what we've recently experienced. Just like healing in life, financial markets also recover over time, so we should stay hopeful even when things seem bleak.

Private equity: Resilient, but not immune

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Private Equity Venture Capital Market Trends
  1. Private equity and venture capital can bounce back from economic shocks over time. If you hold these investments long enough, you are likely to recover any losses.
  2. Shocks in stock and bond markets can affect private equity returns more than investors might think. During a crisis, the reactions are often quick and correlated with these markets.
  3. Despite their resilience, private equity is not totally safe. Investors should expect some volatility during tough economic times, but patience can lead to better long-term returns.

Gold Surpasses $2900 Per Ounce

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Commodities Markets Economic Trends Monetary Policy
  1. Gold prices hit a new record, surpassing $2,900 per ounce, largely due to economic uncertainty and concerns about inflation. This has made gold an attractive option for many investors.
  2. Trade tensions between the US and China, along with tariffs on steel and aluminum, have pushed global capital towards gold as a safe investment. Countries like China are also building their gold reserves, which supports higher prices.
  3. Despite rising interest rates normally being bad for gold, the current economic landscape and investor fears about inflation are keeping demand strong. Many people see gold as a way to protect their wealth in uncertain times.

Fed Stonewalls Synapse FOIA Request

Fintech Business Weekly • 44 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
💰 Finance Banking Regulation Fintech Investments
  1. The Cash App recently settled legal issues, which included fines for not properly handling anti-money laundering rules. They also agreed to improve their security and support for users.
  2. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau released a report on 'buy now, pay later' services, revealing that many loans are small but often lead users to take out multiple loans at once.
  3. There are ongoing concerns about transparency from banking regulators, especially regarding their responses to Freedom of Information Act requests, indicating a gap between what they promise and what they deliver.

My favorite FAANG stock

Compounding Quality • 1690 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
💰 Finance Stocks Investing Technology
  1. FAANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google) have shown impressive performance, but sustainability is a key consideration
  2. Facebook (Meta Platforms) has a massive user base, over 3.96 billion monthly active users
  3. Companies like Apple, Netflix, and Google have interesting founding stories and have evolved significantly over time

Top Links 554 Defending the Fed. Betting on investment. China in Peru & Pakistan's counterinsurgency campaign.

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investment Economics Policy International Analysis
  1. The Federal Reserve plays a crucial role in managing the economy, and there are discussions about its actions and decisions. Understanding how the Fed works can help people make sense of economic changes.
  2. Investing is a key topic, indicating that people are looking for ways to grow their money even in uncertain times. Betting on good investments can lead to financial gain in the future.
  3. China's involvement in countries like Peru shows its global influence. Additionally, Pakistan's counterinsurgency efforts highlight ongoing challenges in maintaining security and stability.

The Seven Samurai: Big Tech to the Rescue!

Musings on Markets • 1538 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investment Analysis Stock Market Economic Trends Company Valuation
  1. The 'Magnificent Seven' stocks, which include major companies like Apple and Amazon, significantly boosted the US market in 2023. They contributed to over half of the market's growth, highlighting their importance in investing.
  2. These companies have shown strong performance not just recently, but over the past decade. If investors didn't include these stocks, they likely missed out on significant gains.
  3. Despite their past success, investors should be cautious. Valuations for these companies are high now, and prices may drop if they don't meet the high expectations set by the market.