Erdmann Housing Tracker • 210 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
- The U.S. faces a large housing shortage — at least about 10 million homes and plausibly 12–15 million units — largely because construction fell after 2008 and vacancies have been depleted.
- Vacancies are at a functional bottom so new-home production must rise well above current rates to stop rent inflation, and major zoning reforms in supply-constrained (Closed Access) cities are needed to reach the higher end of the required housing.
- Per-capita housing consumption and residential investment are well below historical trends — conservatively about 13% below and equivalent to roughly $7 trillion (about 13 years of current investment) — meaning sustained, large-scale building is needed to close the gap.