The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators Housing supply
  1. New home sales in December 2024 hit 698,000, which is a good increase from the previous months. This suggests the housing market is showing some positive movement.
  2. The median price of new homes has dropped by 7.2% from its peak. This could make new homes more affordable for buyers.
  3. There are currently about 8.5 months of new home supply available, which is higher than the normal range. This means there are lots of homes for buyers to choose from.

Searching for von Neumann

Malt Liquidity • 12 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Trading Investing Economics Market Analysis Personal Finance
  1. Finding purpose and fulfillment can be hard, especially when success feels empty. It's important to keep moving and searching for what truly matters in life.
  2. Recognizing our intellectual heroes, like John von Neumann, can inspire us, but it’s also crucial to understand that not everyone's contributions are widely acknowledged.
  3. The changing perception of careers and value in society can lead to a more significant transformation. Future views on work, retirement, and success may look very different.

Index funds and the rise of mega caps, redux

Klement on Investing • 4 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Portfolio Management Financial trends Economic Impact
  1. Index funds have caused a big shift in the stock market, making large companies perform better than smaller ones. This is mainly because more money flows into these large companies due to index tracking.
  2. The growth of index fund ownership in large-cap stocks has increased significantly over the years, while small-cap stocks have seen almost no indexing. This means small companies are getting less attention and investment.
  3. If the flow of money into index funds decreases or investors start pulling money out, the highly indexed large-cap stocks could actually perform worse. This creates a risk bubble that could burst for larger companies.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Inflation Market Trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently 1.1% lower than their peak in 2022. This shows that even when prices rise, the increase may not match inflation.
  2. The price-to-rent index is also lower than its 2022 peak by 7.8%. This means it might be cheaper to rent compared to buying right now.
  3. National house prices are historically high, being 11.6% above the previous housing bubble peak. However, price growth may slow down in the near future.
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Crazy bets on 2025 - 12 personal hedge funds predict the year

Five Links (and three graphs) by Auren Hoffman • 56 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Predictions Economics Betting Market Analysis
  1. A group of twelve people made predictions about 2025 and placed bets on the outcomes. This makes it fun and competitive to see who can guess the future better.
  2. Last year's predictions didn't go well overall, with only a few being correct. It shows that forecasting the future can be really tricky.
  3. This year, they have some bold predictions about events in politics, the economy, and culture. Some predictions sound far-fetched, but others seem more likely.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic data Housing Prices Investment Analysis
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index went up by 4.0% in December compared to last year. This shows that home prices are rising again after a period of decline.
  2. Most of the cities with the biggest price drops are in Florida, with Austin being the worst performer overall. This indicates that some areas are struggling much more than others.
  3. As more homes become available for sale in 2025, the growth in house prices might slow down. So even though prices are rising now, that might change in the near future.

Top Links 547 America's huge trade deficit. Hedge funds bet against green. Bout & the Houthis & the grate (sic) cheese robbery.

Chartbook • 357 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
💰 Finance Trade Investments Economy Hedge Funds Deficits
  1. America's trade deficit widened significantly in September, which means the country is buying way more from other countries than it's selling.
  2. Hedge funds are making big bets against green investments, which suggests they believe these investments won't perform well in the future.
  3. There was a strange robbery involving 'grate cheese' and the Houthis, showing how unusual events can grab attention in the news.

Wall Street Investors Enter Single Family Rentals

Arpitrage • 339 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Real Estate Market Trends Economics Regulations
  1. Large institutional investors are entering the single-family rental market, which affects housing affordability. They often buy homes in high-demand areas, leading to concerns about rising house prices.
  2. These big investors have cost advantages over small landlords. They can charge lower rents due to better management and bargaining power, which can help some renters find affordable housing.
  3. The overall impact of these investors on home prices is mixed. While they might push prices up in certain markets, their presence can also increase rental availability, benefiting some renters despite potential price hikes.

Money is a Test (What Money Means)

Neckar’s Notes • 120 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Currency Economics Investment Wealth Management
  1. Money changes people's lives and values in big ways. For example, in post-Soviet society, people had to quickly learn what money meant, which turned traditional roles upside down.
  2. It's said that everyone believes in money, even if they don't share the same beliefs about religion or nationalism. Money is that powerful and universal.
  3. Our feelings about money often come from our past and family. It's not just about numbers; it's an emotional subject that many struggle with.

Will AI Cause Massive Deflation?

cryptoeconomy • 1493 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economics Technology Central Banking Inflation Deflation
  1. There will not be durable deflation in the future unless major changes happen to the dollar or the Federal Reserve.
  2. Technology like AI can lead to deflation by lowering prices, but central banks like the Federal Reserve counteract this by absorbing the deflation.
  3. A special type of bad deflation occurs when dollars are taken out of circulation, often due to events like financial panics, leading to economic challenges.

I Am Back: Exposing the Bullsh*t Market

Behavioral Value Investor • 282 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Behavioral Finance Cryptocurrency Economic Trends
  1. The author took a break from writing because it felt too scheduled and stressful, but now plans to write when inspired instead. This way, they can share better insights without pressure.
  2. There's a lot of strange behavior in today's markets, like people paying an outrageous amount for a banana or a company being valued more than its actual Bitcoin holdings. It shows how market psychology can be very irrational.
  3. Many financial indicators are warning signs of problems ahead, but people often ignore them because the current trends seem to last. It’s important to recognize these warnings to avoid repeating past mistakes in investing.

Weekend thoughts follow up: $NYCB insider buying and mea culpa

Yet Another Value Blog • 1395 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Banking Stocks Economy Insider trading
  1. The loan book for NYCB is in worse shape than expected, potentially facing huge losses due to rent-regulated properties and increasing expenses.
  2. Despite the challenges, NYCB has over $7 billion in tangible equity, which could help the bank navigate through the crisis.
  3. Insider buying at NYCB following a special update call shows confidence in the institution, highlighting efforts to stabilize the stock amid a tough situation.

Top Links 537 TIGER indices looking grim. South Sudan's misery. The 1990s revisited and Soldier's Paradise.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economic Policy Global Markets Data Analysis International relations
  1. The TIGER indices are showing a negative trend, indicating economic challenges ahead. This suggests that global economic recovery may be slower than expected.
  2. South Sudan is facing significant difficulties, highlighting ongoing humanitarian issues. These problems need urgent attention to improve the situation for its people.
  3. There are connections being made to the 1990s, suggesting that some current geopolitical situations may resemble past conflicts. This raises concerns about the repetition of history in today's world.

Quant Letter: January 2025, Week-4

The Parlour • 34 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Quantitative Machine Learning Portfolio Management Market Analysis Investment Strategies
  1. Advanced models like the MDQR help understand market dependencies, which can make it easier for traders to create effective strategies.
  2. New methods for portfolio optimization can handle many assets at once, moving beyond the traditional limits that were previously in place.
  3. Research shows AI can effectively forecast financial risks and rewards, highlighting the growing importance of technology in finance.

Top Links 540 Gloom over US equities. Soros on investing first and investigating later. Active clubs & the cellular landscape.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
💰 Finance Equities Investing Market Trends Investment strategy Financial Analysis
  1. There's a lot of concern about the future of US stocks, as some experts like Goldman Sachs are predicting gloominess. Many investors are feeling nervous about what comes next.
  2. Soros believes in investing quickly and doing research afterwards, suggesting a bold approach to investing. This method can be risky but may lead to interesting opportunities.
  3. The discussion includes active clubs and the cellular industry, indicating that there are various sectors to pay attention to. These areas might be key for future growth and innovation.

NY AG Sues Citibank For Insufficient Data Security Measures, Failure to Address Scams

Metacurity • 1434 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
💰 Finance Security Measures Scams Data Breach
  1. The New York Attorney General sued Citibank for insufficient data security measures and failure to address scams.
  2. Citibank is accused of not doing enough to prevent unauthorized account takeovers and misleading customers about their rights after being hacked.
  3. The lawsuit alleges that Citibank has overpromised and underdelivered on security measures and failed to respond to red flags.

Beijing's Bubble Bursts Part 2

Diane Francis • 1378 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
💰 Finance Debt crisis Real Estate Global Economy Investment Speculation
  1. China's real estate bubble has created massive debt, making it harder for local governments to provide services. Many places have empty buildings while local debts soar.
  2. The Belt and Road Initiative has turned into a huge financial burden for China, with many countries unable to repay the loans. This has led to China becoming the biggest debt collector globally.
  3. China's gambling-like approach to its economy is hurting its growth and reputation. With a lot of speculation and risk-taking, its future outlook looks uncertain.

Top Links 539 Peru's blueberry boom. El Salvador's $1 billion US-backed loan & the legacy of migrant jails.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Economics Loans Trade Market Trends
  1. Peru is seeing a big increase in blueberry production, which is good for its economy. Blueberries are becoming a popular export from the country.
  2. El Salvador has received a $1 billion loan from the US, which is aimed at improving economic conditions. This is part of a larger effort to support the country's development.
  3. There is ongoing discussion about the long-lasting effects of migrant jails. These facilities have complex legacies that affect many communities.

Why the low multiple series: Rental Car companies edition, part 2

Yet Another Value Blog • 1631 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Companies Market Analysis Economic Trends Financial Strategy
  1. Rental car companies are currently trading at low multiples, making them a potentially cheap investment.
  2. Despite the persuasive bear case, the bull case for rental car companies includes aggressive capital returns to shareholders and potential for sustained earnings.
  3. Structural improvements in the rental car industry, such as consolidation and disciplined supply, could support profitability even if current high levels are not completely sustainable.

Investing Update: 2024 Recap & 2025 Outlook

Spilled Coffee • 112 implied HN points • 04 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Portfolio Management Market Analysis
  1. The S&P 500 had a strong year in 2024, finishing with a gain of 23.3%. It was one of the best years for the stock market since the late 90s.
  2. Many stocks performed well, like Nvidia and Palantir, while others like Boeing and Nike struggled significantly. Investors are keeping a close eye on these ups and downs.
  3. Although not as high as 2023, the actively managed portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 with a return of 49.5%. This shows a consistent trend of good investment decisions.

Top Links 538 The rise of options. "Little pipes" and "little fires". THE banana skirt & the Apple-Nike connection.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Economic Policy Commodities Stock Options
  1. The rise of options trading is becoming a big trend in the market. It's important to understand how this affects investments.
  2. The phrase 'little pipes and little fires' suggests small things can have big impacts. It's a reminder that minor issues can escalate quickly.
  3. There’s an interesting connection between brands like Apple and Nike, showing how different industries can influence each other.

The Money Market Blindspot: Part I

Concoda • 508 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Monetary Policy Debt Management Economic Trends
  1. A funding squeeze is turning into a big increase in cash availability. This change is happening as market conditions ease, but new issues like the debt ceiling are causing uncertainty.
  2. The financial system has a lot less cash than it had in the past, partly because of changes in how money markets operate. There hasn't been serious funding stress recently, which is a good sign.
  3. Another cash surge is expected to hit the banking system soon. As the Treasury reduces its cash cushion, this could lead to more market volatility down the line.

3 Trends I'd Never Bet Against: Lyn Alden

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 29 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Energy Economics Technology Trends
  1. Energy density is crucial for modern life and continues to power our economies. It supports everything from electricity to agriculture.
  2. High energy use has allowed technology and human population to grow, especially since the discovery of oil in the late 1800s.
  3. Despite renewable energy sources like wind and solar, we still need efficient, high-density energy sources to maintain economic strength and growth.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 443 implied HN points • 01 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Monetary Policy Economic Trends Liquidity management
  1. The Federal Reserve is continuing its balance sheet reduction to avoid financial crises, with expectations of it ending by June.
  2. The U.S. Treasury might reduce its issuance of short-term bills to save costs, especially if the Fed maintains its current policies.
  3. Despite challenges like a strong dollar and global tensions, risk assets are anticipated to perform better than bonds in the near future.

Top Links 541 US profits have a long way to fall. Africa's new gold rush. Laos' fx reserves running low & the crisis in the Sahel.

Chartbook • 343 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💰 Finance Corporate Profits Economic Trends Global Markets Resource Management Financial Crises
  1. US corporate profits are expected to decline significantly in the future. This could impact the economy and stock markets.
  2. Africa is experiencing a new wave of interest in gold mining. This could bring economic growth to the region.
  3. Laos is facing a shortage of foreign exchange reserves, which may lead to a financial crisis. Additionally, the Sahel region is experiencing ongoing challenges and instability.

Deficit-to-GDP Ratio Near World War II Levels, CBO Finds

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💰 Finance Debt Management Budgeting Economic Policy Government spending Fiscal Responsibility
  1. The U.S. government is facing huge deficits, with the deficit expected to be around 6.2% of GDP in 2025. This level hasn't been seen since World War II.
  2. Federal spending is outpacing revenue, primarily due to rising costs for programs like Social Security and Medicare. This is leading to increasing government debt.
  3. Despite the seriousness of the debt problem, it hardly gets discussed in politics, meaning there's little pressure to change how spending is managed.

When we lost our minds: Pt.1 Overview

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Theory Market Analysis Housing policy Financial Crisis Investment Strategies
  1. Many people believe the 2008 financial crisis was inevitable, but this oversimplifies what really happened. It's important to question how we understand the events leading up to the crisis.
  2. High home prices and rental costs are more about limited housing supply than just low interest rates. Building more homes could help address these issues.
  3. Experts often misunderstood the role of foreign capital and how it influenced the US economy. Rather than viewing borrowing negatively, it can be a way to invest in growth.

👑 Everything you need to know about valuation

Compounding Quality • 2614 implied HN points • 23 Feb 23
💰 Finance Valuation Investing Stocks Growth Earnings
  1. In the short term, stock prices are driven by fluctuations in valuation, while in the long term, they follow the intrinsic value of a company.
  2. When investing, it's crucial to buy stocks at a discount to their true worth to avoid poor results.
  3. Consider factors like Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) and expected growth when evaluating the value of a company to make informed investment decisions.

Top Links 552 Nasty bonds on underwater office buildings. Indian top earners in Germany. Avian flu & U.S. military food insecurity.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
💰 Finance Bonds Investment Economics Corporate Market Trends
  1. There are problematic bonds tied to office buildings that may not hold value. This means investors could face significant losses.
  2. There are many Indian professionals earning high salaries in Germany. This indicates a strong presence of Indian talent in the German job market.
  3. Avian flu is affecting food security for U.S. military personnel. This raises concerns about the availability of safe food for those in service.