The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Delinquency Loans Banking
  1. Mortgage delinquencies slightly increased to 3.98% in Q4 2024 compared to the previous quarter. This means more people are missing their mortgage payments.
  2. FHA and VA loans are seeing a bigger rise in delinquency rates compared to conventional loans. This is concerning, especially as the gaps in these rates are growing.
  3. States like Florida and South Carolina had the largest increases in delinquency rates. Natural disasters, like hurricanes, may be partly to blame for this rise.

3 Stocks I Have My Eye On

Spilled Coffee • 40 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Financial Analysis Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. The author is watching three different stocks, each in a unique situation. One stock is doing very well and hitting all-time highs.
  2. Another stock is currently at a multi-year low, indicating it might be a good buying opportunity.
  3. The third stock is slowly recovering from a significant drop and showing signs of improvement, suggesting it could be turning around.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011”

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgage Economics Market Trends Home Prices Delinquencies
  1. Home price growth was the slowest since 2011, ending the year at just 3.4%. This is significantly lower than the growth rates seen in previous years.
  2. The number of homes for sale increased by 22% in 2024, which is the highest level of inventory since mid-2020. Some markets are even back to pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Mortgage delinquencies have started to rise, especially with FHA and VA loans. This suggests potential issues in mortgage performance could become more prominent in 2025.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2025-01-13 Mo

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 115 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Markets Investments Policy Insurance
  1. 1. Understanding Economic Issues: The text discusses the idea that many problems in society are linked to economic misunderstandings and a lack of effective communication in the management of public services. It highlights the need for better systems to gather and process information for effective governance.
  2. 2. The Role of Government: It emphasizes that a government's primary job isn't just to keep people safe, but to empower them and solve crises effectively. Officials should focus on actual disaster management rather than just maintaining the appearance of control.
  3. 3. Challenges of Modern Technology: There is a critique of how tech companies like Facebook are operating without a long-term vision, which affects user experiences negatively. The discussion invites us to think about how technology can be used to improve our understanding and utilization of information.
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A Lens to Understand the Trump Tariffs

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 769 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Tariffs Trade Economics Investment Market Analysis
  1. Not all tariffs are bad; they can help boost domestic manufacturing and protect jobs. The U.S. has lost many manufacturing jobs to overseas markets, which affects both the economy and national security.
  2. Often, tariff threats are used as negotiation tools rather than actual intentions to impose tariffs. For example, Trump used the threat of tariffs to gain cooperation from other countries on unrelated issues.
  3. The bigger issue is that many countries, including China, put up barriers to U.S. products while expecting open access to American markets. Addressing these trade imbalances can be crucial for fair international trade.

The Fear Over Tariffs

Spilled Coffee • 60 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💰 Finance Trade policy Tariffs Inflation Market Impact Economic Growth
  1. Tariffs can cause prices to rise for consumers, leading to inflation. This means things might get more expensive for everyone.
  2. The ongoing tariffs can create uncertainty in the stock market and economy. Businesses are worried about how these changes could impact their profits.
  3. Monitoring tariffs is important for investors and business owners. They need to stay updated because tariffs affect many products and can cause market fluctuations.

The Bear Cave #245

The Bear Cave • 653 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Corporate News Regulatory issues Economic Trends
  1. New reports are raising serious concerns about several companies, including Hershey, which was found to have harmful chemicals in its products. This could impact its reputation and sales.
  2. Several high-profile executives have recently resigned from their positions at major companies, suggesting possible instability or issues within those organizations.
  3. There are calls for caution when it comes to tweeting about stocks, as public opinions and statements can significantly affect market perceptions and investments.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Investment Economics Inventory Analysis
  1. New home listings are up 10.8% compared to last year, which is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. Despite this increase, new listings are still lower than they were before the pandemic.
  3. Inventory levels and what happens in March will be crucial in understanding the future of the housing market.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Investments Mortgage Rates Economic Trends
  1. House prices are on the rise, with the Case-Shiller National Index showing a year-over-year increase of about 3.8% in November. This trend seems to be continuing into December as well.
  2. The month-over-month changes show that house prices have increased 0.44%, which means house prices have been consistently going up for 22 consecutive months.
  3. Looking ahead, there’s speculation about what will happen with house prices in 2025, indicating that trends in housing are important for future planning.

Rising existing inventory in Texas and Florida

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Economics Investment Market Analysis Real Estate
  1. Rising home inventory in places like Texas and Florida doesn't always mean a bad market. It can show real demand or a strong market too.
  2. Many people wrongly believe that too many houses lead to market crashes, but actually, drops in demand usually cause these issues.
  3. In past downturns, like in 2008, price drops happened after demand decreased, not because of oversupply. Understanding this helps make sense of current housing trends.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory Analysis Mortgage Rates
  1. January saw a significant increase in active housing inventory, rising by 38.3% from last year, but it's usually low during this month. March will be important to see if this trend continues.
  2. New listings in January rose by 23.7% compared to last year, but they are still at historic lows when compared to January 2019.
  3. Closed sales in January increased by 6.4% year-over-year, which is a positive sign, but overall sales are still down compared to earlier years like 2019.

All Roads Lead to Inflation

Points And Figures • 746 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
💰 Finance Inflation Investing Monetary Policy Economic Growth Debt Management
  1. Inflation seems unavoidable and is likely to continue affecting the economy. It doesn't really matter who is in charge politically; the pressure on the markets suggests we're stuck with it.
  2. To manage during inflationary times, investing in commodities and hard assets like real estate may be smart. These investments can help preserve value even when the dollar weakens.
  3. The shift to private markets and sectors like technology and agriculture can offer chances to earn better returns that beat inflation. However, navigating these markets requires skill and good management.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Indicators Market Analysis
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same compared to last year. Recently, there's been a slight downward trend, but rents are still high compared to earlier years.
  2. The number of available rental units is increasing, leading to more options for renters. This rise in supply is helping to keep rents stable and pressures on affordability.
  3. Single-family rent growth is at its lowest in over 14 years. Even though rent increases are slowing, demand for rentals is expected to remain strong due to job and wage growth.

CROSSPOST/HOISTED: Larry Summers from 2022 on the "Polycrisis"

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 84 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Fiscal policy Global Economy Financial Stability Inflation
  1. The global economy is facing a 'polycrisis,' which means there are many problems at once, like inflation, energy issues, and conflicts affecting different regions.
  2. Inflation is a big concern, and controlling it might require tough decisions like raising interest rates, which could lead to higher unemployment but is seen as necessary for stability.
  3. The situation in the UK shows how quickly financial stability can turn into chaos from bad policy, highlighting the importance of credibility and wise fiscal management.

Trading The Shit Show: February 2025 Market Update

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 40 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Personal Finance Economic Trends Mental health
  1. The writer has been sober for 72 days, which has brought them clarity and peace. They feel that stepping back from gambling and trading has helped them focus better on their life.
  2. They are optimistic about their market predictions, having outperformed the S&P by 9% since the beginning of the year. A clear mind seems to be helping their financial outlook.
  3. New features for paid subscribers have been introduced, allowing for more direct discussions. This change aims to create a better connection with their readers.

Atlas Won’t Shrug

Doomberg • 7754 implied HN points • 20 Feb 24
💰 Finance Energy Commodities Economics Markets Policy
  1. The human need for energy continues to grow despite various historical crises and catastrophes.
  2. Energy is not just an input into the economy but is actually the foundation of the economy itself.
  3. The idea of peak cheap oil being a crisis is challenged, with the belief that humanity would adapt swiftly to any temporary constraints in energy availability.

THE MACRO-FINANCE SITCH: The Streams (of Falling Short-Term & Rising Long-Term U.S. Treasury Rates) Cross

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 115 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Markets Bonds Economics Investing Policy
  1. Short-term Treasury rates are falling while long-term rates are rising, showing a change in investor expectations about future interest rates. This shift hints at more uncertainty in the market.
  2. The current economic situation could lead to tumultuous changes similar to past events in the UK, with concerns about the U.S. government's approach to debt and fiscal policy.
  3. Investors seem to be valuing flexibility over fixed returns, suggesting they want to avoid risks associated with long-term bonds in a fluctuating economy.

💥Leaky Container💥

PETITION • 2456 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
💰 Finance Stocks Retail Investing Company analysis Economy
  1. The post discusses underperforming retailers like The Container Store Inc. ($TCS) specializing in storage solutions.
  2. The Container Store Inc. is known for its premium pricing compared to competitors for products like coat hangers and laundry baskets.
  3. The company's history involves acquisitions by PE firm Leonard Green and Partners LP and an IPO in 2013.

Quick Essay: The Federal Reserve and Critical Moments in U.S. Monetary Policy

Chamath Palihapitiya • 3871 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Federal Reserve Economic History Inflation Financial Crisis
  1. Before the Federal Reserve, the U.S. had banking issues and crises, leading to the need for a central bank in 1913.
  2. The Great Depression prompted key reforms like the Banking Act of 1933 and the Gold Reserve Act of 1934.
  3. The end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 marked a shift to Fiat currency and the decline of the gold standard.

Gold in Resolution

Doomberg • 8751 implied HN points • 13 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Geopolitics Market Dynamics
  1. 2024 may be a significant year for gold investors, due to potential moves by the Group of Seven countries.
  2. There are discussions about seizing Russian assets worth billions, which could impact the global financial system.
  3. The decisions made by the G7 regarding these assets could influence gold prices and highlight its role in the financial system.

The Future of Finance: Substack’s Market Forecast Summit

Substack Blog • 93 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Economics Market Trends Financial Independence
  1. Finance and business experts are increasingly sharing knowledge independently, as trust in traditional media decreases. This helps them build real connections with their audience.
  2. The Substack Market Forecast Summit will happen on January 31, where top finance minds will discuss investment strategies and economic trends for 2025.
  3. More finance professionals are using Substack to share their insights directly with subscribers, which offers investors better access to valuable information.

How One Synapse/Evolve Victim Got His Money Back

Fintech Business Weekly • 89 implied HN points • 12 Jan 25
💰 Finance Banking Investments Regulation Fintech Consumer Rights
  1. Some people affected by the Synapse bankruptcy have struggled to get their money back, leaving many feeling hopeless. The trustee in charge is working on figuring out how to reconcile the missing funds.
  2. One man was able to get his money back by filing a small claims case against Evolve Bank, showcasing that taking legal action can sometimes help consumers regain their lost funds.
  3. In contrast, his daughter faced challenges in court with her similar case, highlighting how results can vary even with similar circumstances. This shows that legal situations can be unpredictable.

Problems at POET Technologies (POET)

The Bear Cave • 256 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investing Corporate Finance Market Trends Financial Analysis
  1. POET Technologies is working on an optical interposer technology, but it has very little revenue and a large debt, raising concerns about its long-term survival.
  2. The stock price of POET has risen dramatically this year, largely due to promotional campaigns rather than the company’s actual performance or growth.
  3. Several YouTube videos promoting POET were paid for by the company, which coincided with big jumps in stock price, suggesting that hype is driving interest more than solid fundamentals.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory
  1. Existing home sales increased for three months in a row, but they are still much lower than before the pandemic. December's sales were about 21% below the average from 2017 to 2019.
  2. Inventory of homes for sale is rising sharply in regions like Florida and Texas, with a year-over-year increase of 17.5%. This suggests more options for buyers in those areas.
  3. There were more new listings in December compared to last year, but they are still at historically low levels. The increase in new listings may hint at some recovery in the housing market.

The Unmaking of a Modern Economy: Brexit, Austerity, and Britain's Great Retraction

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 376 implied HN points • 23 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Policy Macroeconomics Global Economy Financial Crisis Growth Strategies
  1. Britain's economy has struggled since 2008, missing out on a lot of potential growth. If things had gone differently, people would be much better off today.
  2. Policies like austerity and Brexit have hurt the economy, but they are not the only reasons for the decline. There have been many mistakes made over the years.
  3. The long-term effects of economic shocks, like the Great Recession, can have lasting impacts on growth. This shows how important it is to be careful with economic policies.

As a Nightmare Brews on Wall Street for CVS, Executives Scramble to Quell Investors

HEALTH CARE un-covered • 859 implied HN points • 16 May 24
💰 Finance Investing Healthcare Insurance Stock Market Corporate Governance
  1. CVS executives are under pressure from investors after a bad financial report. This has caused them to make changes that could negatively affect patient care.
  2. The company plans to cut benefits and possibly remove around 420,000 Medicare members to improve profits. This decision could leave many people without needed healthcare.
  3. Insurers like Aetna are prioritizing stock performance over patient welfare. This focus on profits may mean that people struggle to get the medical services they need.

Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 129 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Debt Economic Trends Real Estate Mortgage
  1. There won't be a big drop in home prices because most people aren't selling under distress like before. Homeowners are in a better position now with more equity and low-rate mortgages.
  2. Mortgage debt is increasing, but not alarmingly. The current lending standards are stricter than during past bubbles, so it's less risky.
  3. Many new mortgages are going to borrowers with strong credit scores. This means that lending practices are healthy and borrowers are more qualified.

Top Links 555 Main St v. Wall St inflation. Poland and France to block Mercosur. Nigeria's demography & de Gaulle's last picture.

Chartbook • 443 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics Investment Policy Demographics Global Trade
  1. There's a battle between regular people and Wall Street over inflation issues. It's important to understand how this affects everyday life.
  2. Poland and France are planning to block a trade deal with Mercosur. This could impact trade relations in Europe and South America.
  3. Nigeria's growing population is a key topic to watch. It highlights important demographic changes happening today.

Investing Update: Record Highs Here To Stay?

Spilled Coffee • 84 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Sentiment Analysis Economic Indicators
  1. The stock market has reached new all-time highs after a rough start to January, showing strong growth. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow have all seen gains already in the new year.
  2. There is a clear uptrend in the market as more stocks are moving upward, indicating a bull market. Historically, new highs in the market often ensure continued growth.
  3. Investor sentiment shifted from bearish to more positive as the market bounced back. When many investors lean towards negativity, it often leads to a rebound in optimism.

Slick Landing

Doomberg • 8377 implied HN points • 06 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Interest Rates GDP Market Analysis Macroeconomics
  1. In 2022, the US economy was expected to fall into a deep recession, but it didn't.
  2. Despite doubts, the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes had a positive impact on the economy.
  3. Forecasts for the US economy are challenging, and unexpected outcomes provide unique learning opportunities.

A Billion-Dollar Fraud In Plain Sight

Where's Your Ed At • 10237 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Investment Fraud Bankruptcy Regulation
  1. Gemini's
  2. Earn
  3. program misled customers into investing in risky lender Genesis Capital.
  4. The NY Attorney General filed a significant fraud suit against Gemini, Genesis, and Digital Currency Group for misleading customers and covering up losses.
  5. The Winklevoss twins actively deceived customers, putting billions of dollars into an unstable lender and reaping profits while customers faced losses.

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 9, 2025

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 09 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Investing Market Trends Earnings Reports Global events
  1. This week has important earnings reports from many tech companies like Monday.com and Zillow. Keep an eye on how they perform as it might affect the market.
  2. There are several key economic events in the U.S. this week, such as consumer inflation reports and retail sales. These can give us clues about the economy's health.
  3. Global economic updates are happening too, with events like unemployment rates and industrial production in countries like China, Turkey, and Germany. These will help us understand the international economy.

Cogent Analysis

Doomberg • 7086 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economic Analysis Forecasting Energy markets
  1. Analysts focus on continuous learning and understanding, while advocates tend to rationalize or attack inconvenient facts.
  2. Economies heavily reliant on energy resources like Russia may evade recession despite sanctions due to their unique market dynamics.
  3. US economy's short-term resilience and avoidance of recession can be attributed to various energy-related factors, such as LNG export approvals.

Ben Graham's Duplex

Neckar’s Notes • 117 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Personal Finance Market Trends Wealth Management Economic History
  1. Money experiences often change suddenly, like climbing a ladder. It’s important to take time to adjust before making big choices.
  2. Ben Graham was a successful investor who once lived in a fancy duplex in New York City. He felt on top of the world after making a lot of money.
  3. However, he moved into this luxurious home just before a huge stock market crash. This teaches us that success can change quickly.