The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

How to Defend Cash in under 5 Minutes

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 637 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💰 Finance Currency Economics Digital Payments Monetary Policy
  1. Cash is important to protect against digital payment surveillance and control. Transitioning to a fully cashless society can lead to loss of personal freedom and privacy.
  2. Instead of arguing against the convenience of digital payments, it might be better to present a new perspective on why cash is valuable. Analogies can help get the message across more easily.
  3. Educating others about the risks of a cashless society takes practice. Finding quick, relatable ways to share your views can be more effective than trying to challenge established beliefs directly.

Macroeconomics: Some Defects

In My Tribe • 486 implied HN points • 29 May 25
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Banking Economic Theory Fiscal policy Financial Sector
  1. Macroeconomics often treats the economy like a simple factory that can be controlled centrally, but the reality is much more complex with many different goods and services. It's not just about one measure like GDP.
  2. Many economics students learn about macro without understanding the important role banks play in the economy. Banks help manage risks and their crises can lead to major economic downturns.
  3. Macroeconomic theories are often presented as timeless, but they should consider historical changes and events that shape the economy. Each economic crisis is unique and influenced by different circumstances over time.

Vibe Check: MSFT & META Earnings: LRCX, MXL, WOLF, ASML, CLS, STM, ALGM, INTC

Mule’s Musings • 366 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💰 Finance Earnings Reports Investment Trends Stock Analysis Tech industry
  1. Microsoft is seeing strong growth in its AI revenue, but its overall business is growing slowly. They have invested heavily in AI and plan to keep expanding their data center capacities.
  2. Meta is optimistic about the future of AI and has extended the lifespan of its servers. They expect to make significant advancements in AI coding and problem-solving capabilities in 2025.
  3. Both companies are focusing their spending on infrastructure, with Meta doubling down on AI and core business needs. They believe that investing in this area will give them a competitive edge.

The Bear Cave #258

The Bear Cave • 583 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Financial reports Stock Analysis Corporate Governance
  1. Recent reports by researchers highlighted concerns about companies like AppLovin and Construction Partners, suggesting they are facing serious revenue and operational issues.
  2. There have been notable executive resignations at companies such as Blue Bird Corp and Lanzatech Global, indicating potential instability within those organizations.
  3. The SEC released FOIA logs suggesting certain companies are under investigation, as many investors see this as a red flag about their business practices.

The Transcript Editor's Commentary

The Transcript • 19 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Investment Monetary Policy Consumer spending Elections
  1. The economy seems stable and strong, with good consumer spending and low delinquency rates. People are feeling positive about their finances.
  2. Optimism in businesses is growing, especially with recent changes in interest rates. However, for more demand, companies want more rate cuts and easier lending conditions.
  3. The upcoming presidential election is important for the economy. The new president will influence economic policies that could affect the markets for years to come.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Varo Struggles On As Founder Colin Walsh Steps Down As CEO

Fintech Business Weekly • 52 implied HN points • 16 Feb 25
💰 Finance Fintech Banking AI Investments Regulations
  1. Varo Bank is facing challenges as its founder and CEO Colin Walsh steps down. New CEO Gavin Michael has a tough job ahead with the company still not profitable.
  2. Despite some improvements in revenue and customer growth, Varo's net losses remain significant, with $65 million lost last year. It needs to boost its deposits and customer engagement.
  3. The financial regulatory landscape is changing with new appointments, including Jonathan McKernan resigning from the FDIC and being nominated to lead the CFPB. This could impact how financial services are managed going forward.

Stocks Have Done Something Crazy Every 20 Year Period...

The Pomp Letter • 439 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Market Strategy
  1. Investing in stocks is usually better over the long term. If you hold onto your stocks for 20 years, you have never lost money.
  2. While some people trade stocks for quick gains, sticking to long-term strategies is often smarter and more rewarding.
  3. Global trends like rising liquidity might help both stocks and assets like bitcoin succeed in the future.

Market Movers - 12 October 2024

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 539 implied HN points • 12 Oct 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Analysis Consumer behavior
  1. MercadoLibre in Argentina is seeing a boost in consumer spending after a tough few months, with more people buying and selling on its platform.
  2. Nubank has made it easier for customers to increase their credit limits by using government bonds as collateral, giving them more financial flexibility.
  3. InPost is dominating the logistics market in Poland with a huge share of parcel deliveries and is investing in new facilities to handle growing demand.

Tariff design and LCOE

Jérôme à Paris • 267 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market design Investment strategy Risk Assessment
  1. Contracts for Difference (CfDs) let wind projects offer lower prices compared to Corporate Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). This is because CfDs reduce the perceived risk for lenders.
  2. Merchant projects that sell directly on the spot market are risky and harder to finance. Investors need to bet on high and unstable prices to make profits, which might not always work out.
  3. Using CfDs provides more price stability for consumers compared to relying solely on PPAs. This helps ensure lower and more predictable electricity costs over time.

This Next Market Crash Will Break Our Fragile Brains

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 67 implied HN points • 23 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Theory Behavioral Finance Financial Risks
  1. The next market crash may have serious psychological effects on investors. Many people today haven't experienced a long-lasting downturn, which could be shocking for them.
  2. Current stock prices are very high compared to earnings, which might lead to a big correction. People are buying stocks without truly understanding their worth.
  3. The economy is facing challenges that could lead to stagflation. If that happens, it might hurt everyday people more than the wealthy, widening financial inequalities.

Global. Synchronized. Recession

COVID Reason • 535 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
💰 Finance Global Economy Consumer confidence Labor Market
  1. The global economy is in a full-blown recession, not just a minor slowdown. Signs like credit card shutdowns and a weak job market clearly show the situation is serious.
  2. Declining consumer confidence is a big red flag. People are feeling uncertain, which affects how much they spend and can worsen the economic crisis.
  3. This recession isn’t just affecting one place; it’s happening worldwide. Countries like China and Japan are facing similar struggles, indicating a synchronized economic downturn.

Homebuilder Earnings

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Investments Economics Market Trends Real Estate
  1. Homebuilder earnings give insights into the health of the housing market. They can show how well builders are doing right now.
  2. Tracking these earnings can help predict future trends in home prices and availability. It’s important for buyers and investors to know what's happening in the market.
  3. Understanding homebuilder performance can help people make better decisions about buying or selling homes. It helps everyone stay informed.

Our 2024 Hedge Fund Analyst Christmas List

The Bear Cave • 2799 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Financial tools Research
  1. There are many great free tools available for investors to research companies, such as the SEC Full-Text Search and Google Advanced Search.
  2. Paid resources like EdmundSEC and TIKR can provide deep insights and data for serious investors to enhance their research.
  3. Following insightful social media accounts and newsletters can be a valuable way to generate investment ideas and stay updated on market trends.

Disinflation is here: But it's not the kind we want!

COVID Reason • 376 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Inflation Federal Reserve Economic Policy
  1. Disinflation means prices are rising more slowly, but that doesn't always mean good news. If people aren't spending because they can't afford things, it can signal trouble in the economy.
  2. The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in response to disinflation to try and encourage spending, but this might just be a way to show they are doing something without fixing the deeper issues.
  3. Sticky prices and disinflation can show that people are struggling financially. For a healthy economy, we need wages to rise so people can spend more, rather than just seeing temporary price drops.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 221 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investments Economic Trends Financial Policy Banking
  1. The money market is moving from a period of cash abundance to more careful funding conditions. This could affect how money flows in the next few months.
  2. A big change is expected once the debt limit is resolved, which could lead to a surge in bills. This might reduce the reserves banks have available.
  3. Foreign investors may be less interested in U.S. Treasury securities because other local bonds offer better returns. This could impact future U.S. debt sales.

Time to Revisit: How Does This Assessment Look Fourteen Months Later?

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 192 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Inflation Federal Reserve Economic Policy Market Analysis
  1. There are two main views on inflation: 'Team Transitory' believes inflation will go away, while 'Team Persistent' thinks it will stick around. The debate is important to understand how to deal with the economy's ups and downs.
  2. The Federal Reserve's actions, like raising interest rates quickly, play a big role in managing inflation. If the Fed hadn't acted as strongly, inflation expectations could have gone out of control.
  3. Past economic cycles were shaped by different factors, like wars and technological changes. Understanding these historical trends can help us navigate today's economy better.

2024 Annual Letter: Generational Company, Generational Wealth

Interconnected • 354 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investment Wealth Economics Market Trends Portfolio Management
  1. Investing in technology, especially in areas like AI and cloud infrastructure, can be a promising way to build wealth over time. It's important to focus on companies with strong fundamentals that are expected to grow for many years.
  2. Tariffs and geopolitical events can greatly impact investment strategies, so it's crucial to seek out portfolio positions that are less sensitive to such changes. This helps in managing risks and stabilizing returns.
  3. Building generational wealth means finding robust companies that will still thrive in the future. Personal experiences can shape how we view long-term investments and what makes a company worth investing in.

Strategic Funds

Points And Figures • 692 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investment Economic Policy Taxation Cryptocurrency Government spending
  1. The idea of a Strategic Wealth Fund (SWF) and a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) is seen as bad because they could go against individual freedoms and lead to misuse of taxpayer money.
  2. Government can't truly invest money; it can only spend what it collects from taxes or borrows. This means investments made by the government aren't genuine investments.
  3. Bitcoin is still mostly potential and hasn't proven its real-world value. Critics argue that despite years of development, it lacks practical uses in everyday life.

Economics Links, 6/2/2025

In My Tribe • 212 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Regulation Cryptocurrency Banking Policy
  1. Closing the FCC could be beneficial, as it often invents new reasons to exist. Some of its functions could be better managed by other government departments.
  2. Trump's idea to make Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae public while keeping government guarantees could lead to problems. This could mean private companies profit while taxpayers take on the risks.
  3. There's some hope in the economy as service costs are stabilizing, suggesting capitalism might be doing better than thought. This could mean a brighter future for the middle class.

The Fed, With No Earnings, Is Taking Us on a Magic Carpet Trip

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Federal Reserve Economic Theory Government spending
  1. The Federal Reserve is spending more money than it is earning, leading to significant losses. This means they can't send money back to the Treasury, which affects taxpayers.
  2. The Fed's unusual accounting strategy allows them to classify these losses in a way that keeps them operating. This raises questions about how they can sustain this approach in the long term.
  3. People are concerned about the impact of the Fed's spending on inflation and government debt. Many wonder how this will affect the economy and taxpayers in the future.

Getting to the Fun Part

The Transcript • 139 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Economic Policy Consumer behavior Investment Strategies Corporate Finance
  1. The economy is showing signs of resilience, with positive movements even though growth isn't super strong. People are feeling more optimistic about things improving.
  2. A drop in interest rates could lead to more business activity and investment. However, experts believe we might need more rate cuts for that to happen.
  3. Consumers are cautious but still spending. Overall, the job market remains steady, and many are waiting to see how upcoming events affect the economy.

Investing Update: Hedge Fund Buys & Holdings

Spilled Coffee • 36 implied HN points • 01 Mar 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Economic Policy Hedge Funds
  1. The stock market has seen a decline, with major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping significantly this week. This means investors have lost some of their gains for the year.
  2. Many big-name stocks have dropped more than 20% from their highs, indicating a possible bear market. This trend affects nearly a third of S&P 500 stocks.
  3. Despite recent volatility, it's common after elections, and the overall bull market isn't in danger. Companies are still reporting strong earnings, suggesting a slight pullback is normal.

Infographics: The Shadow Cash Market

Concoda • 313 implied HN points • 28 May 25
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Economic Policy Financial Instruments Cash Flow
  1. The shadow cash market involves various types of private transactions that are not easily tracked or regulated. This means that a lot of money moves around without official oversight.
  2. Overall, the liquidity in this market can act like bonds, providing a kind of security and stability for those involved. It’s an alternative way to manage and access funds.
  3. Understanding this market is important as it has impacts on the economy. It helps people see how money flows in ways that aren’t always visible.

So... When Does The Economy Crash?

OK Doomer • 191 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economy Market Trends Investments Economic Policy
  1. Many experts are predicting an economic crash, but no one knows exactly when it will happen. People are worried about the potential impact of technology and global events.
  2. A lot of individuals are tied to their investments, making it hard for them to react quickly to market changes. Most people can't just sell off their stocks easily because of employer-based retirement plans.
  3. There’s a mix of genuine concern and opportunism in the market around impending crashes, with some people genuinely preparing and others just trying to sell fear-based products.

Sezzle Removes Merchants Following The Bear Cave’s Investigation

The Bear Cave • 513 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Payment Systems E-commerce Fraud prevention
  1. Sezzle stopped working with several online pharmacies after an investigation revealed they were illegal. This means those pharmacies can no longer process payments using Sezzle.
  2. Many of these online pharmacies sell medications that may not be safe for U.S. consumers. They often have poor regulations and can provide the wrong or dangerous drugs.
  3. By highlighting these issues, the investigation helped prevent fraud and potential harm to consumers. Removing the payment option makes it harder for these illegal pharmacies to reach American buyers.

Top Links 630 Flexible exchange rates, fear of floating, Goldfinger & the reality of the global exchange rate system.

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Policy Global Economy Monetary Systems Financial Markets
  1. Flexible exchange rates can cause uncertainty, which some countries try to avoid, leading to a 'fear of floating'.
  2. The discussion around the realities of the global exchange rate system helps us understand how it impacts economies worldwide.
  3. Lessons from past conferences on floating exchange rates are valuable for grasping their long-term effects and challenges.

China's Silent Depression: An Unseen Economic Crisis

COVID Reason • 237 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Debt Globalization Real Estate Crisis
  1. China had a huge economic boom driven by global demand for its products, creating an illusion of strong governance.
  2. The 2008 global crisis revealed China's vulnerabilities, leading to rising debt and a focus on real estate to cope with slowed growth.
  3. Now, China's heavy debt and real estate issues are growing problems, signaling a decline in globalization that previously supported its economy.

The US Is Not Broke

Doomberg • 6730 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Policy Fiscal Responsibility Investment strategy Debt Management
  1. The US has a very high level of public debt, but the situation is not as hopeless as it sounds. There's still a lot of flexibility in managing this debt.
  2. Experts suggest the US might be in a state of 'fiscal dominance,' meaning traditional monetary policies might not work effectively anymore. This makes managing the economy tricky.
  3. The current administration has experience with managing debt and can take steps to improve the financial situation. The President has options to deal with the debt and is not completely stuck.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. U.S. house prices rose about 4.5% over the past year, showing growth across all regions, but at a slower pace than before. This suggests the market is stabilizing after a period of rapid increases.
  2. The Case-Shiller index indicates that home prices have been increasing month-over-month consistently, with a 0.5% rise recently, even though some cities like San Francisco and Tampa are seeing price declines.
  3. Overall house prices are now higher than they were before the pandemic, but growth is less intense than during peak years, reflecting changes in demand and supply in the housing market.

How does a 63% premium sound?

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Mergers & Acquisitions Corporate Finance Economic Policy
  1. Prosus is buying Just Eat for $4.3 billion, which is a huge 63% more than what it was worth before the deal. This shows a big jump in value but raises some questions among investors.
  2. Just Eat's growth has slowed down recently, with a slight drop in global revenue. This makes some people think the deal might not be a good bargain for Prosus.
  3. The Christian Democratic Union in Germany has won a recent election and plans to lower taxes and cut regulations. They're also focusing on energy policies and digital innovation, which could reshape Germany's economy.

US Homeowners Hit New All-Time High Of $35 Trillion In Home Equity

The Pomp Letter • 339 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Impact Consumer spending
  1. US homeowners now have a record $35 trillion in home equity, which shows how much their homes are worth compared to what they owe on mortgages.
  2. The increase in home equity is mainly due to a housing boom during the pandemic, where demand surged while mortgage rates were low, pushing home prices higher.
  3. This huge amount of equity might lead homeowners to use home equity loans and second mortgages instead of selling their homes, especially since many have low mortgage rates.

The Bear Cave #256

The Bear Cave • 653 implied HN points • 12 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Healthcare Corporate Governance Activism
  1. There are serious concerns about AppLovin's business practices, including alleged money laundering and low-quality apps. Activist reports suggest their recent growth is questionable.
  2. TransMedics Group is facing backlash for alleged unethical practices in organ transportation. Reports indicate they may have refused life-saving procedures due to billing issues.
  3. A number of executives in various companies have resigned recently, showing instability in leadership roles. This includes multiple CFOs and the CEO of Hershey, which may impact company performance.

Not Much has Changed

The Transcript • 179 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Interest Rates Consumer behavior Investment Strategies Labor Market
  1. The economy is doing okay overall, even though growth has slowed down a bit since the Fed lowered interest rates. It seems like things are more stable than expected.
  2. Consumers are still spending, and there’s no big drop in retail shopping, which is a good sign for the economy. Most people are managing to keep up with their finances.
  3. Investors are holding onto a lot of cash right now and might be waiting for better opportunities to invest. Many think current asset prices are too high.

The Bear Cave #257

The Bear Cave • 396 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Corporate News Regulatory issues Activism
  1. Activist reports are highlighting possible financial issues with several companies, suggesting they may not be as strong as they claim.
  2. Recent executive resignations at various companies indicate instability and potential challenges within their leadership.
  3. The U.S. Department of Transportation is taking action against Southwest Airlines for their ongoing delays, showing the importance of accountability in the travel industry.

Debanking's Dueling Narratives

Fintech Business Weekly • 89 implied HN points • 09 Feb 25
💰 Finance Banking Cryptocurrency Regulation Policy Investment
  1. Debanking is becoming a major topic, especially around the access of crypto companies to traditional banking. This issue has been fueled by public statements from influential figures like Marc Andreessen.
  2. There are claims of political bias in banking, particularly against conservative individuals and businesses. Some people argue that banks are closing accounts for political or ideological reasons, though banks deny this.
  3. Both Republicans and Democrats recognize debanking as a significant problem, but they have different views on its causes and solutions. Democrats are pushing for protections against unfair account closures, while Republicans want legislation to ensure fair access to banking.

We all deserve to be rich

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 21 Feb 25
💰 Finance Wealth Taxation Income Economics Social justice
  1. Rich people often believe they deserve their wealth and should pay less taxes, while poor people think wealthy individuals should pay more. This shows a big difference in attitudes based on personal wealth.
  2. When people become wealthy through effort, they feel they earned it and support lower taxes. Surprisingly, even those who get rich by luck, like winning a lottery, also argue for lower taxes on their wealth.
  3. After people become wealthy, they often stop considering ideas about sharing wealth or paying higher taxes. They tend to seek out information that supports their own views, ignoring arguments for helping those less fortunate.

The Frankfurter Index

Doomberg • 6098 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Currency Commodities Economic Theory Financial Analysis
  1. The price of everyday items can help us understand the true value of money over time. For example, the cost of hot dogs compared to the price of gold shows how much the dollar has changed.
  2. While the value of the US dollar has been decreasing, it's important to look at prices in relation to gold to see the bigger picture. Gold has been a constant measure of value throughout history.
  3. Some people worry that we will run out of oil, but advancements in technology suggest otherwise. Oil and gas companies are innovating and have plenty of resources available.

Investing Update: A Look At My Portfolio

Spilled Coffee • 84 implied HN points • 22 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Portfolio Management Market Analysis
  1. The stock market has been having a tough time lately, especially on Fridays, which have seen significant drops. It's important to pay attention to these patterns when investing.
  2. The Magnificent 7 stocks aren’t performing as well this year compared to last year, suggesting a shift in market dynamics. Other sectors might be starting to pick up the pace instead.
  3. The current bull market is still young, but it's showing strong returns. Statistically, bull markets that reach their third year tend to continue for quite a while, which could mean more growth ahead.