The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Top Links 758 Delinquent consumer debt. South Africa's unemployment crisis. Napoleon's sword and the legend of the "Black Star" pistol.

Chartbook • 472 implied HN points • 03 Jun 25
💰 Finance Consumer Debt Unemployment Economic Crisis International relations Historical Analysis
  1. Delinquent consumer debt in the US is on the rise, which could indicate economic issues ahead.
  2. South Africa is facing a serious unemployment crisis, highlighting challenges in its job market.
  3. There are fascinating stories about Napoleon's sword and the legend surrounding the 'Black Star' pistol that connect history and culture.

Market Movers - 12 October 2024

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 539 implied HN points • 12 Oct 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Analysis Consumer behavior
  1. MercadoLibre in Argentina is seeing a boost in consumer spending after a tough few months, with more people buying and selling on its platform.
  2. Nubank has made it easier for customers to increase their credit limits by using government bonds as collateral, giving them more financial flexibility.
  3. InPost is dominating the logistics market in Poland with a huge share of parcel deliveries and is investing in new facilities to handle growing demand.

Top Links 757 Flipping correlations. Mapping credit scores. Saudi twitter & the secrets of the RG.

Chartbook • 472 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
💰 Finance Markets Economics Investing Banking Debt
  1. Treasury yields and the value of the dollar are acting differently now, where higher yields are linked to a weaker dollar.
  2. There are interesting tools that help map and understand credit scores, which could be helpful for managing finances.
  3. Saudi Twitter is revealing some hidden information about the region, suggesting social media plays a role in public discourse.

Tariff design and LCOE

Jérôme à Paris • 267 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market design Investment strategy Risk Assessment
  1. Contracts for Difference (CfDs) let wind projects offer lower prices compared to Corporate Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). This is because CfDs reduce the perceived risk for lenders.
  2. Merchant projects that sell directly on the spot market are risky and harder to finance. Investors need to bet on high and unstable prices to make profits, which might not always work out.
  3. Using CfDs provides more price stability for consumers compared to relying solely on PPAs. This helps ensure lower and more predictable electricity costs over time.

This Next Market Crash Will Break Our Fragile Brains

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 67 implied HN points • 23 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Theory Behavioral Finance Financial Risks
  1. The next market crash may have serious psychological effects on investors. Many people today haven't experienced a long-lasting downturn, which could be shocking for them.
  2. Current stock prices are very high compared to earnings, which might lead to a big correction. People are buying stocks without truly understanding their worth.
  3. The economy is facing challenges that could lead to stagflation. If that happens, it might hurt everyday people more than the wealthy, widening financial inequalities.
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Global. Synchronized. Recession

COVID Reason • 535 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
💰 Finance Global Economy Consumer confidence Labor Market
  1. The global economy is in a full-blown recession, not just a minor slowdown. Signs like credit card shutdowns and a weak job market clearly show the situation is serious.
  2. Declining consumer confidence is a big red flag. People are feeling uncertain, which affects how much they spend and can worsen the economic crisis.
  3. This recession isn’t just affecting one place; it’s happening worldwide. Countries like China and Japan are facing similar struggles, indicating a synchronized economic downturn.

Homebuilder Earnings

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Investments Economics Market Trends Real Estate
  1. Homebuilder earnings give insights into the health of the housing market. They can show how well builders are doing right now.
  2. Tracking these earnings can help predict future trends in home prices and availability. It’s important for buyers and investors to know what's happening in the market.
  3. Understanding homebuilder performance can help people make better decisions about buying or selling homes. It helps everyone stay informed.

Disinflation is here: But it's not the kind we want!

COVID Reason • 376 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Inflation Federal Reserve Economic Policy
  1. Disinflation means prices are rising more slowly, but that doesn't always mean good news. If people aren't spending because they can't afford things, it can signal trouble in the economy.
  2. The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in response to disinflation to try and encourage spending, but this might just be a way to show they are doing something without fixing the deeper issues.
  3. Sticky prices and disinflation can show that people are struggling financially. For a healthy economy, we need wages to rise so people can spend more, rather than just seeing temporary price drops.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 221 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investments Economic Trends Financial Policy Banking
  1. The money market is moving from a period of cash abundance to more careful funding conditions. This could affect how money flows in the next few months.
  2. A big change is expected once the debt limit is resolved, which could lead to a surge in bills. This might reduce the reserves banks have available.
  3. Foreign investors may be less interested in U.S. Treasury securities because other local bonds offer better returns. This could impact future U.S. debt sales.

Top Links 752 Phases of economic history/ascendant economic ideologies. China's renewables megabases & how banana bunches are organized.

Chartbook • 600 implied HN points • 28 May 25
💰 Finance Economic History Economics Renewables Data Visualization Global Trade
  1. There are 752 important phases in economic history that show how economies have changed over time.
  2. China is creating large renewable energy projects, which could have a big impact on its energy future.
  3. An interesting way to understand economics is to look at how bananas are organized, showing how we can learn from everyday things.

AI for Hedge Funds Tracker

Magis • 36 implied HN points • 22 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Startups AI Technology Hedge Funds Market Trends
  1. The list of AI startups for hedge funds is regularly updated to include new companies that are relevant to investors. It is centralized on a personal website for easier access.
  2. Startups chosen for the list are specifically focused on hedge fund needs and not just general productivity tools. This means only certain AI tools that cater to hedge funds are included.
  3. Future classifications of these startups will consider the backgrounds of their founders and the types of products offered, helping to identify patterns in the AI tools being developed.

Top Links 756 Tariff-sensitive inflation is on its way. The crisis in the diamond business. The Sound of Music and Caught by the Tides.

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 01 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economics Markets Investing Policy Global Trade
  1. Tariff-sensitive inflation is expected to rise soon. This means that prices on certain goods may go up because of changes in tariffs.
  2. The diamond industry is facing a crisis. This could impact the availability and pricing of diamonds in the market.
  3. There are interesting discussions around cultural topics like 'The Sound of Music' and environmental issues like 'Caught by the Tides'. These may provide insights into how culture and nature intersect.

Strategic Funds

Points And Figures • 692 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investment Economic Policy Taxation Cryptocurrency Government spending
  1. The idea of a Strategic Wealth Fund (SWF) and a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) is seen as bad because they could go against individual freedoms and lead to misuse of taxpayer money.
  2. Government can't truly invest money; it can only spend what it collects from taxes or borrows. This means investments made by the government aren't genuine investments.
  3. Bitcoin is still mostly potential and hasn't proven its real-world value. Critics argue that despite years of development, it lacks practical uses in everyday life.

Brad Setser Says Smart Things on Exorbitant Privilege Unearned & Earned

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 322 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investments Economics Global Markets Monetary Policy Trade
  1. The dollar's power is not just a natural right; it relies on global faith in American institutions and returns. It's a constant balance that can shift quickly if trust is lost.
  2. Private investors have played a huge role in keeping investment flowing into the U.S., as they seek returns and perceived safety. This pattern has changed from reliance on central banks to a focus on individual investors.
  3. The stability of the dollar could be threatened by political issues within the U.S. If the legal and financial systems weaken, trust may fade and capital could flee quickly.

Economics Links, 6/2/2025

In My Tribe • 212 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Regulation Cryptocurrency Banking Policy
  1. Closing the FCC could be beneficial, as it often invents new reasons to exist. Some of its functions could be better managed by other government departments.
  2. Trump's idea to make Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae public while keeping government guarantees could lead to problems. This could mean private companies profit while taxpayers take on the risks.
  3. There's some hope in the economy as service costs are stabilizing, suggesting capitalism might be doing better than thought. This could mean a brighter future for the middle class.

The Fed, With No Earnings, Is Taking Us on a Magic Carpet Trip

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Federal Reserve Economic Theory Government spending
  1. The Federal Reserve is spending more money than it is earning, leading to significant losses. This means they can't send money back to the Treasury, which affects taxpayers.
  2. The Fed's unusual accounting strategy allows them to classify these losses in a way that keeps them operating. This raises questions about how they can sustain this approach in the long term.
  3. People are concerned about the impact of the Fed's spending on inflation and government debt. Many wonder how this will affect the economy and taxpayers in the future.

Getting to the Fun Part

The Transcript • 139 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Economic Policy Consumer behavior Investment Strategies Corporate Finance
  1. The economy is showing signs of resilience, with positive movements even though growth isn't super strong. People are feeling more optimistic about things improving.
  2. A drop in interest rates could lead to more business activity and investment. However, experts believe we might need more rate cuts for that to happen.
  3. Consumers are cautious but still spending. Overall, the job market remains steady, and many are waiting to see how upcoming events affect the economy.

Top Links 754 Exxon's long plateau. Banana economics. Modal magic & the General of Physics.

Chartbook • 457 implied HN points • 30 May 25
💰 Finance Economics Energy Markets Investments Policy
  1. ExxonMobil is not rapidly expanding its fossil fuel production. This suggests a more stable or declining phase for the company rather than aggressive growth.
  2. The content focuses on varied topics like economics and physics, indicating a diverse range of interests and insights.
  3. The support of subscribers is essential for maintaining the platform, highlighting the importance of community in content creation.

Investing Update: Hedge Fund Buys & Holdings

Spilled Coffee • 36 implied HN points • 01 Mar 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Stock Analysis Economic Policy Hedge Funds
  1. The stock market has seen a decline, with major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping significantly this week. This means investors have lost some of their gains for the year.
  2. Many big-name stocks have dropped more than 20% from their highs, indicating a possible bear market. This trend affects nearly a third of S&P 500 stocks.
  3. Despite recent volatility, it's common after elections, and the overall bull market isn't in danger. Companies are still reporting strong earnings, suggesting a slight pullback is normal.

Infographics: The Shadow Cash Market

Concoda • 313 implied HN points • 28 May 25
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Economic Policy Financial Instruments Cash Flow
  1. The shadow cash market involves various types of private transactions that are not easily tracked or regulated. This means that a lot of money moves around without official oversight.
  2. Overall, the liquidity in this market can act like bonds, providing a kind of security and stability for those involved. It’s an alternative way to manage and access funds.
  3. Understanding this market is important as it has impacts on the economy. It helps people see how money flows in ways that aren’t always visible.

So... When Does The Economy Crash?

OK Doomer • 191 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economy Market Trends Investments Economic Policy
  1. Many experts are predicting an economic crash, but no one knows exactly when it will happen. People are worried about the potential impact of technology and global events.
  2. A lot of individuals are tied to their investments, making it hard for them to react quickly to market changes. Most people can't just sell off their stocks easily because of employer-based retirement plans.
  3. There’s a mix of genuine concern and opportunism in the market around impending crashes, with some people genuinely preparing and others just trying to sell fear-based products.

China's Silent Depression: An Unseen Economic Crisis

COVID Reason • 237 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Debt Globalization Real Estate Crisis
  1. China had a huge economic boom driven by global demand for its products, creating an illusion of strong governance.
  2. The 2008 global crisis revealed China's vulnerabilities, leading to rising debt and a focus on real estate to cope with slowed growth.
  3. Now, China's heavy debt and real estate issues are growing problems, signaling a decline in globalization that previously supported its economy.

The US Is Not Broke

Doomberg • 6730 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Policy Fiscal Responsibility Investment strategy Debt Management
  1. The US has a very high level of public debt, but the situation is not as hopeless as it sounds. There's still a lot of flexibility in managing this debt.
  2. Experts suggest the US might be in a state of 'fiscal dominance,' meaning traditional monetary policies might not work effectively anymore. This makes managing the economy tricky.
  3. The current administration has experience with managing debt and can take steps to improve the financial situation. The President has options to deal with the debt and is not completely stuck.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. U.S. house prices rose about 4.5% over the past year, showing growth across all regions, but at a slower pace than before. This suggests the market is stabilizing after a period of rapid increases.
  2. The Case-Shiller index indicates that home prices have been increasing month-over-month consistently, with a 0.5% rise recently, even though some cities like San Francisco and Tampa are seeing price declines.
  3. Overall house prices are now higher than they were before the pandemic, but growth is less intense than during peak years, reflecting changes in demand and supply in the housing market.

How does a 63% premium sound?

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Mergers & Acquisitions Corporate Finance Economic Policy
  1. Prosus is buying Just Eat for $4.3 billion, which is a huge 63% more than what it was worth before the deal. This shows a big jump in value but raises some questions among investors.
  2. Just Eat's growth has slowed down recently, with a slight drop in global revenue. This makes some people think the deal might not be a good bargain for Prosus.
  3. The Christian Democratic Union in Germany has won a recent election and plans to lower taxes and cut regulations. They're also focusing on energy policies and digital innovation, which could reshape Germany's economy.

US Homeowners Hit New All-Time High Of $35 Trillion In Home Equity

The Pomp Letter • 339 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Impact Consumer spending
  1. US homeowners now have a record $35 trillion in home equity, which shows how much their homes are worth compared to what they owe on mortgages.
  2. The increase in home equity is mainly due to a housing boom during the pandemic, where demand surged while mortgage rates were low, pushing home prices higher.
  3. This huge amount of equity might lead homeowners to use home equity loans and second mortgages instead of selling their homes, especially since many have low mortgage rates.

Circle and Chime Post-IPO Pops Suggest We’re Off to the Races

Fintech Business Weekly • 59 implied HN points • 15 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Banking Cryptocurrency Market Trends Regulation
  1. Circle and Chime recently went public, and their early trading performance suggests a strong market interest in fintech companies right now.
  2. Circle makes most of its money from interest on reserves, but predicting short-term rates is really tricky, which could impact its future performance.
  3. Coinbase has introduced a new credit card that offers users the chance to earn Bitcoin back on purchases, showing how the crypto market is expanding with exciting product options.

Not Much has Changed

The Transcript • 179 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Interest Rates Consumer behavior Investment Strategies Labor Market
  1. The economy is doing okay overall, even though growth has slowed down a bit since the Fed lowered interest rates. It seems like things are more stable than expected.
  2. Consumers are still spending, and there’s no big drop in retail shopping, which is a good sign for the economy. Most people are managing to keep up with their finances.
  3. Investors are holding onto a lot of cash right now and might be waiting for better opportunities to invest. Many think current asset prices are too high.

READING/HOISTED: From 2021: Matt Levine Is Bewildered by the Financial Economics of Elon Musk

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 222 implied HN points • 06 Jun 25
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Analysis Behavioral Finance
  1. Elon Musk's influence on investments shows that value now often comes from social dynamics and celebrity power rather than traditional financial metrics. His tweets can drive prices up just because many people decide to buy into his hype.
  2. The rise of assets like GameStop and Dogecoin highlights a new way people coordinate their purchases online, often based on collective agreement rather than a solid analysis of the underlying value.
  3. Money and value are becoming less about concrete assets and more about social perceptions and internet culture. As social media evolves, how we view and use money is changing too.

The Frankfurter Index

Doomberg • 6098 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Currency Commodities Economic Theory Financial Analysis
  1. The price of everyday items can help us understand the true value of money over time. For example, the cost of hot dogs compared to the price of gold shows how much the dollar has changed.
  2. While the value of the US dollar has been decreasing, it's important to look at prices in relation to gold to see the bigger picture. Gold has been a constant measure of value throughout history.
  3. Some people worry that we will run out of oil, but advancements in technology suggest otherwise. Oil and gas companies are innovating and have plenty of resources available.

It’s a good thing to have several suppliers

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 26 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Economics Trade Market Analysis Inflation
  1. Having many suppliers is important for businesses. It helps keep prices lower because they can compare options more easily.
  2. If companies rely on just one supplier, they might save money at first but face risks later, especially if there are problems like tariffs.
  3. Countries with diverse supply chains can handle trade issues better. For instance, if the US and EU have a trade dispute, the EU might face less inflation due to their varied suppliers.

Investing Update: A Look At My Portfolio

Spilled Coffee • 84 implied HN points • 22 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economic Trends Portfolio Management Market Analysis
  1. The stock market has been having a tough time lately, especially on Fridays, which have seen significant drops. It's important to pay attention to these patterns when investing.
  2. The Magnificent 7 stocks aren’t performing as well this year compared to last year, suggesting a shift in market dynamics. Other sectors might be starting to pick up the pace instead.
  3. The current bull market is still young, but it's showing strong returns. Statistically, bull markets that reach their third year tend to continue for quite a while, which could mean more growth ahead.

A Quick Q&A on predicting super AI through bond markets with … Trevor Chow

Faster, Please! • 91 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Markets Interest Rates Investment Economics AI
  1. Interest rates might predict the rise of advanced AI. As people expect big changes, they want to spend more now instead of saving for the future.
  2. Higher long-term growth expectations often lead to higher real interest rates. This shows that bond markets can hint at when transformative AI might arrive.
  3. Both positive and negative outcomes of AI can push rates up. Whether AI leads to great progress or poses risks, people behave similarly by wanting to consume now.

The Market's Mirror, Exhibit "A"

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Economics Stock Trading Financial trends
  1. The stock market might be slowing down soon, which is a concern for investors. It's important to pay attention to popular stocks for signs of this change.
  2. There's a belief that we could be on the brink of a significant market crash that could confuse many investors. Being aware of market behaviors can help prepare for what's next.
  3. Frustration with everyday items could be a sign of larger issues, showing that people are feeling the stress of the current economic situation. This reflects broader feelings about the market right now.

An Athenian Odyssey

Net Interest • 13 implied HN points • 20 Jun 25
💰 Finance Banking Investing Economics Regulation Market Trends
  1. Greek banks faced huge challenges after a financial crisis, losing most of their market value and seeing many loans go unpaid.
  2. Despite a tough recovery process, the Greek economy is growing again, and banks are starting to regain investor confidence.
  3. A transformation is underway in Greece, with international banks showing interest in investing, which reflects a healthier banking system.

Friday Macro Sitch Watching: The Grit from the Sandstorm Is Fierce!

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 207 implied HN points • 06 Jun 25
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Investment Economic Policy Market Trends Risk management
  1. In uncertain times, it's wise to be cautious and build safety instead of taking big risks. Waiting and watching can help us avoid bad decisions when the future is unclear.
  2. The economy is facing challenges like stagflation, which means slow growth and high prices. It's hard to tell if we're headed for a recession or if things will get better soon.
  3. Some people still have hope for a positive change, similar to past economic recoveries. They believe that chaos could lead to new growth opportunities, but there's a lot of uncertainty about what will happen next.

First Rate Cut + Q&A

DeFi Education • 779 implied HN points • 23 Aug 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Labor Market Interest Rates Economic Trends
  1. The Federal Reserve is making changes to its policies, indicating the economy is shifting. This could affect things like interest rates and inflation.
  2. Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that they don’t want the economy to cool down too much. This suggests they are looking for a balance between growth and stability.
  3. There is a focus on the labor market and inflation, which are key indicators for the economy. These factors will influence future decisions from the Federal Reserve.

The Transcript Editor's Commentary

The Transcript • 99 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Investing Monetary Policy Capital Markets Earnings Reports
  1. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo recently reported stable profits, showing no significant changes in the economy. This suggests that businesses remain steady despite economic shifts.
  2. The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates has helped lift capital markets positively.
  3. The effects of monetary policy, like interest rate changes, often take time to show in the economy, explaining why things seem unchanged right now.