The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates Credit Scores Housing Market Economic Trends
  1. Mortgage rates have dropped significantly since early 2020, with many loans under 4%. This makes it tough for homeowners to sell because they would face higher payments on new homes.
  2. More homes with loans over 6% are appearing in the market, indicating changes in mortgage dynamics since the peak of low rates in 2022.
  3. The average mortgage rate, along with borrowers' credit scores and loan-to-value ratios, is crucial in understanding the current mortgage landscape.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 281 implied HN points • 20 May 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Monetary Policy Financial Education
  1. Cash is flowing back into the money markets, leading to calmer conditions. This means there's plenty of cash available, which is a good sign.
  2. The recent panel discussions revealed that issues in the market were influenced by trade tariffs and how they affected different types of financial trades. Understanding these factors can help make better investment decisions.
  3. Despite some panic over the Moody's downgrade, experts believe it's not a big deal and the U.S. Treasuries are still a safe bet. Overall, it's a stable time to consider investing in Treasuries.

5 Years Ago

Spilled Coffee • 32 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic History Stock Market Personal Finance
  1. The stock market can bounce back even after big drops like during the COVID-19 pandemic. If you had invested back when the market was at its highest before the crash, you would have seen a big gain over time.
  2. Missing just a few days in the market can really hurt your long-term investment returns. It's important to stay invested, even during uncertain times.
  3. Major world events can cause market crashes, but history shows that the stock market often continues to rise over time. This means it's wise to stick with your investments, no matter what happens.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 01 Jul 25
💰 Finance Housing Mortgage Economics Real Estate Investment
  1. The serious delinquency rates for single-family homes have decreased slightly in May. This shows some improvement from the previous month.
  2. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's delinquency rates are still higher than they were last year, but they are below pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Multi-family delinquency rates are nearing their highest levels since 2011, not counting the pandemic, indicating some stress in that sector.
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Developing a New (Alan) Taylorism for the Remainder of the 21st Century

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 238 implied HN points • 31 May 25
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Political Economy Inflation Interest Rates Globalization
  1. We need to learn from past economic crises so we can prepare for future shocks. They often have long-lasting effects on our economy, making recovery much harder.
  2. Controlling inflation is key for political stability. When inflation is low and stable, people trust their leaders and feel secure about the economy.
  3. Even with challenges, like low interest rates, we have a great chance for investment in things like infrastructure and education. We should take advantage of these conditions to grow.

Regret Maximization Sickness

Investing 101 • 55 implied HN points • 07 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Decision-making Personal Growth Regret Hope
  1. Regret can hold us back and often leads to worse decisions. Instead of focusing on what we've done wrong, it's better to learn from mistakes and move forward.
  2. There is a lot of pressure to maximize our regrets, but we can choose to focus on hope and redemption instead. We have the option to embrace grace for ourselves and others.
  3. Investing should be about hope for the future. Dwelling on past regrets stops us from looking forward and finding new opportunities.

Investment heuristics cage match

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 25 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Behavioral Finance Market Analysis Trading Strategies Heuristics
  1. Many investors, both retail and institutional, often rely on simple rules of thumb to make investment decisions. While some of these rules can be useful, others are not effective at all.
  2. Retail investors tend to use a variety of heuristics more frequently than chance, especially those influenced by social factors like peer behavior. This includes strategies like buying stocks from industries where they've previously profited.
  3. Institutional investors, on the other hand, use heuristics less often, but still show a reliance on social influences. Interestingly, their use of heuristics generally leads to better outcomes compared to retail investors.

Market Flow “Starting To Show Cracks”: Sang Lucci

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 13 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Trading Strategies Investment Risk Options trading
  1. The market is facing a critical moment, showing signs of weakness in its flow. It's important to pay attention to these signs.
  2. For a long time, the same few popular stocks have been the focus, but there's less new money coming in from big investors. This could be a problem for future growth.
  3. Retail traders have been the main buyers lately, but if their buying decreases, there could be trouble ahead for the market that relies on their activity.

Think of It as Generating Our "Investment Surplus", Not as Our "Trade Deficit"

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 146 implied HN points • 04 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economic Policy Global Trade Investment Analysis Financial Stability
  1. Think of the trade deficit as an investment surplus instead. This way, we can see the benefits of foreign investments in the U.S. economy.
  2. A current-account trade deficit actually reflects an investment surplus by nature. This means that money from foreign exports is being used to buy U.S. assets, which can help keep interest rates low.
  3. While there are some costs linked to trade deficits, such as job losses in certain sectors, it's also important to recognize that investments can lead to new technology and greater economic strength in the long run.

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 23rd

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 23 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Events Market Trends Earnings Reports Global Economy
  1. There are several important earnings reports coming up this week from companies like Zoom and Nvidia. These can give us insights into how these businesses are doing.
  2. Key U.S. economic events include jobless claims and consumer confidence data, which are important to track for understanding the economy's health.
  3. Global economic updates like inflation rates from different countries will also be released, giving a broader picture of the economic situation worldwide.

January 2025 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economic Trends Construction Employment Market Analysis
  1. Residential construction jobs are not increasing much and have been stable. This suggests a slow period for the construction industry.
  2. The number of new construction starts was lower this month, indicating potential challenges ahead for the housing market.
  3. Despite issues in construction, there's a lot of political noise happening, which makes the calm in construction seem strange.

Quant Letter: June 2025, Week-3

The Parlour • 21 implied HN points • 19 Jun 25
💰 Finance Quantitative Investing Market Analysis Risk management Trading Strategies
  1. A new forecasting method called Bayesian VAR can predict complex time series data accurately by handling multiple variables and irregular data.
  2. Research on electricity markets reveals how hedging can be connected to market power abuse, which helps understand the economic behaviors in these markets.
  3. Recent studies show how machine learning and quantum methods are being applied to optimize trading strategies and predict market fluctuations.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.7% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators House Prices Inflation
  1. Inflation-adjusted house prices are currently 1.7% below their peak in 2022, meaning they have slightly decreased recently.
  2. When considering the price-to-rent ratio, this is also 8.8% lower than it was at the peak last year, indicating changes in housing affordability.
  3. Overall, while house prices are historically high, they remain about 10.9% above the peak levels from the previous housing bubble.

Country Risk: My 2024 Update

Musings on Markets • 959 implied HN points • 24 Jul 24
💰 Finance Risk Assessment Investing Market Analysis Economic Factors Global trends
  1. Investing in a country is riskier depending on its political structure, level of violence, corruption, and property rights. Democracies can be unstable, while autocracies might promise consistency but can change suddenly.
  2. External factors like reliance on a single commodity, economic growth stages, and climate change can increase a country's risk. Countries tied to one resource are vulnerable to market shifts.
  3. Understanding country-specific risk is important for businesses and investors. Different countries have different costs of capital due to their risk levels, impacting investment decisions.

ONE YEAR (& SIXTEEN YEARS) AGO ON GRASPING REALITY: The Panic of 1825

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 169 implied HN points • 29 May 25
💰 Finance Banking Economic Policy Financial Crisis Investment Monetary Systems
  1. The 1825 Panic marked a key moment in the development of modern central banking. It showed how banks can turn to a central authority for help during financial crises.
  2. The Bank of England stepped in during the 1825 financial turmoil to prevent a collapse of the banking system. This was a major shift, highlighting the importance of central banks in managing economic stability.
  3. The actions taken during the panic helped restore confidence in the financial system. When people began to trust that banks were safe again, the economy slowly recovered.

USDJPY: The Most Important Chart in the World

Kerman Kohli • 118 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
💰 Finance Currency Markets Debt Management Global Trade Interest Rates
  1. The Japanese Yen's value impacts global trade. When the Yen is weak, Japanese exports become cheaper for other countries, but imports get more expensive.
  2. Japan's massive debt isn't a problem as long as their interest rates stay low. This keeps borrowing cheap, allowing them to manage their debts without immediate consequences.
  3. The USD/JPY exchange rate is crucial for understanding the global economy. Changes in this rate can affect investments and interest rates in other countries, making it a key chart to watch.

Economic Errors

David Friedman’s Substack • 655 implied HN points • 28 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics Wealth Trade Investment Tariffs
  1. Wealth isn't just cash; it can be land, stocks, or buildings. A person's gain in wealth doesn't mean someone else has to lose money.
  2. When countries trade, it’s not just about wages. The value of currencies affects trade costs, and tariffs can disrupt these complex economic balances.
  3. People often hold on to incorrect economic beliefs because they sound easier or support their self-image. Understanding the real logic behind economics can be complicated but helps us see the true picture.

The Best Investing Advice

The Generalist • 760 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Venture Capital Market Analysis Decision-making
  1. Investing is all about finding great companies, not just good deals. Focus on what makes a company truly outstanding.
  2. Diversify not just across different industries, but also over time. Don't rush into investments; think long-term and consider market changes.
  3. Startups should offer something unique that stands out. Instead of competing with existing options, create a choice that reshapes the conversation.

Lula Hoops

Doomberg • 5190 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
💰 Finance Currency Investments Global Economy Central Banking
  1. Gold prices have been rising significantly and outperforming the S&P 500 lately, reaching all-time highs in many currencies.
  2. There's speculation that central banks are accumulating gold as they explore options for a new currency to compete with the US dollar, particularly involving a potential BRICS currency backed by gold.
  3. At the recent BRICS summit, there were concerns that Brazil's president might not fully support efforts to move away from the US dollar, which could impact the success of this new currency initiative.

New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 25 Jun 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Housing Data Economic Indicators
  1. New home sales in May 2025 dropped to an annual rate of 623,000, which is lower than previous months and last year.
  2. There is an increase in the supply of new homes available, with nearly 10 months' worth of inventory on the market, which is much higher than normal.
  3. The prices of new homes have decreased, with a 7% drop from the peak, partly due to a change in the types of homes being sold.

When looking at private investments, the past is prologue

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Private Equity Valuation Market Analysis Risk management
  1. Private investments seem safer because they offer smooth returns, but their true risks might be hidden. Investors need to be careful and look beyond the surface when evaluating these assets.
  2. The way private equity funds show their investment valuations can be misleading. If they only show positive changes and hide the bad news, it can trick investors about how healthy the investments really are.
  3. Small changes in investment valuations can signal much bigger problems later on. Investors should pay attention to valuation updates to predict possible losses in the future.

The Transcript Editor's Commentary

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Market Analysis Economic Trends
  1. The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates but is now signaling that they may not do it quickly again. This can be seen as a bit disappointing for the markets.
  2. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, mentioned they are not in a hurry to make more rate cuts. This message is important for those watching the economy.
  3. Overall, it seems the Fed wants to stay cautious and not rush decisions that could impact the market.

Our 2024 Hedge Fund Analyst Christmas List

The Bear Cave • 2799 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Financial tools Research
  1. There are many great free tools available for investors to research companies, such as the SEC Full-Text Search and Google Advanced Search.
  2. Paid resources like EdmundSEC and TIKR can provide deep insights and data for serious investors to enhance their research.
  3. Following insightful social media accounts and newsletters can be a valuable way to generate investment ideas and stay updated on market trends.

The Fed Has Stopped Pretending that Price Inflation Is Going Away

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Economics Government spending
  1. The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates, claiming confidence in lower inflation, but that confidence seems to have faded. The Fed is now uncertain about its inflation goals.
  2. Inflation remains high, especially for everyday necessities like food and housing, causing consumers to struggle with rising costs. Recent data shows that inflation is not improving as expected.
  3. Instead of lowering interest rates, which may not help ordinary people, the Fed should step back and allow the market to adjust naturally. This could help stabilize the economy and provide better opportunities for regular investors.

The End of Private Equity's Golden Age

European Straits • 12 implied HN points • 11 Jun 25
💰 Finance Private Equity Investments Market Trends Capital allocation Financial Systems
  1. Private equity is facing a big change as key investors, like Yale and Harvard, are selling off their holdings. This shift raises questions about whether private equity is just going through another cycle or if there are deeper issues at play.
  2. Today, private equity is struggling to exit investments, meaning firms can't show returns, which makes it hard to attract new money. This cycle of problems is creating a 'velocity crisis' that could hurt the industry overall.
  3. The problems in private equity suggest that the strategies that worked for decades might not be effective anymore. Firms may need to rethink their models or focus on fewer, stronger investments to survive.

Not in a Hurry

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 07 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Investments Banking Market Trends Interest Rates
  1. The Federal Reserve is not rushing to cut interest rates anytime soon. They want to see more economic data before making any decisions.
  2. Many experts believe that the market may be expecting interest rate cuts too soon and that any drops in rates won't happen as fast as people think.
  3. Overall, the economy shows signs of strength with stable hiring and positive corporate earnings, making it unclear if rate cuts are actually needed right now.

Don't Sleep On Silver

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 31 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Commodities Market Trends Economic Analysis
  1. Silver is getting more attention from small investors because it's cheaper and offers good growth potential. Many see it as a practical investment to build wealth gradually.
  2. Recent market events, like the Silver Squeeze of 2021, have highlighted the influence of retail investors and could lead to a stronger focus on silver in future market shifts.
  3. The current high gold-to-silver ratio suggests that silver might be undervalued and ready for a price surge, especially as gold continues to rise. This could be a good time to invest in silver.

How Many Homes Do We Need?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 358 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Policy Market Analysis
  1. There is a huge underestimation of the housing shortage in the U.S. Many professionals are saying we need less housing than we actually do.
  2. Current data shows there are about 15 million vacant homes, but many more are needed due to population growth. Estimates suggest a shortage of at least 15 to 20 million units.
  3. Building more homes can help lower rents and make housing more affordable, but there's a risk that new constructions may only be rented out at higher prices, especially if ownership becomes less accessible.

One Regulator

Points And Figures • 719 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
💰 Finance Regulation Innovation Cryptocurrency Market structure Bureaucracy
  1. The financial market regulation in the U.S. is complicated and outdated, with many agencies like the SEC and CFTC often conflicting with each other. This can lead to innovation being stifled.
  2. There are concerns that some regulators, like Gary Gensler, may be overly controlling and negatively impact innovative companies, especially in the emerging cryptocurrency space.
  3. Many believe that simplifying the regulatory structure to have one main regulator could boost competition and innovation, but achieving this change seems very challenging.

Quaint Oak, Hatch Hit With BaaS-Related Enforcement Actions

Fintech Business Weekly • 59 implied HN points • 01 Jun 25
💰 Finance Banking Regulation Fintech Compliance Data Privacy
  1. Quaint Oak and Hatch Bank faced enforcement actions related to compliance with anti-money laundering laws. These actions highlight ongoing regulatory scrutiny in the banking and fintech sectors.
  2. The CFPB is supporting a challenge to the open banking rule, which could lead to significant changes in how financial data is shared. This implies that fintech companies may need to brace for new regulatory hurdles.
  3. Recent data shows many households are struggling with financial obligations, like student loans and buy now, pay later payments. This indicates a broader concern about financial stability among everyday consumers.

January 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update and Inflation

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Inflation Economic Trends Market Analysis Real Estate
  1. Home prices changed in the past two decades, with different local and national factors affecting these trends. This means that while prices may rise overall, local conditions can vary greatly.
  2. Recent inflation numbers showed a slight increase, but it's unclear if this is just a temporary change or part of a longer trend. It's important to watch these numbers closely for a clearer picture.
  3. When looking at inflation data, excluding shelter costs gives a better understanding of general price trends, which have generally stayed close to the target rate over time.

My Investing Philosophy

Spilled Coffee • 124 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Portfolio Management Personal Finance Retirement planning
  1. Reading investment books helped shape my investing strategy over time. It's important to learn from different sources and experiences.
  2. I consistently invest in an S&P 500 index fund every month. This approach has helped me stay focused on long-term growth without getting caught up in market fluctuations.
  3. Having a high conviction strategy means holding onto a few strong stocks instead of constantly buying and selling. Patience has often led to better investment outcomes for me.

Homeownership isn't that risky

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Investments Homeownership Economic Policy Market Trends
  1. Homeownership is often seen as risky, but this idea is misunderstood. Many homes don't actually lose value significantly over time, and the risks are often overstated.
  2. Lower-priced homes can be a good investment, especially for families with lower incomes. The rental income from these homes can outweigh the risks involved.
  3. The financial difficulties in the post-2008 housing market were largely driven by government policies, not the inherent risks of owning a home. For many, owning a home can still be a stable investment over time.

Investing Update: Why Are Investors Scared?

Spilled Coffee • 40 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Indicators Stock Analysis Risk Assessment
  1. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently bounced back, showing positive growth for 2025, with the S&P just shy of an all-time high. This is encouraging for investors looking for potential gains.
  2. Despite the positive market performance, more than 40% of stocks aren't above their 200-day average, indicating some underlying struggles. This is something to keep an eye on.
  3. A historical trend suggests that when the S&P 500 is up over 3% by Valentine's Day, it tends to finish the year strong. This year follows that pattern, creating optimism for many investors.

No, DOGE Checks Wouldn’t Cause Inflation

Economic Forces • 3 implied HN points • 27 Feb 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Government spending Public Policy
  1. Sending out DOGE checks is unlikely to cause inflation. It's because they would probably just raise the price level temporarily, not create ongoing inflation.
  2. The impact of these checks on the economy depends on how spending changes and whether the central bank keeps spending stable.
  3. Whether giving out DOGE checks is a good idea depends on how the saved money could be used instead, like paying off government debt or funding other programs.

Investing Update: A Rotation Is Underway

Spilled Coffee • 68 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Stock Performance Economic Trends Sentiment Analysis
  1. All major stock indexes ended the week down, showing a shift in market sentiment. This can indicate a possible change in the current bull market.
  2. Despite the recent downturn, some key stocks like Nvidia are bouncing back, and the overall market remains strong as the S&P 500 is near its all-time high.
  3. Historically, February is known for being a tough month for stock performance, especially after Valentine’s Day, which could be a concern for investors.

How to Exit

The Generalist • 520 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Venture Capital Investing Market Trends Liquidity Regulations
  1. Exiting from investments is just as important as entering them. Investors need to remember that cashing out is a key part of the venture capital game.
  2. Secondary transactions are becoming more common and important. Investors must learn how to handle these types of deals to benefit from changing market conditions.
  3. Understanding when and how to sell in the secondary market is crucial. Knowing the right timing can help investors meet their targets and provide returns to their supporters.