The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

A Quick Q&A on predicting super AI through bond markets with … Trevor Chow

Faster, Please! • 91 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Markets Interest Rates Investment Economics AI
  1. Interest rates might predict the rise of advanced AI. As people expect big changes, they want to spend more now instead of saving for the future.
  2. Higher long-term growth expectations often lead to higher real interest rates. This shows that bond markets can hint at when transformative AI might arrive.
  3. Both positive and negative outcomes of AI can push rates up. Whether AI leads to great progress or poses risks, people behave similarly by wanting to consume now.

Top Links 627 Is the dollar overvalued? Larry Summers feeling good. Gold & the price of a Rolex & The Rise and Fall of the Italian economy.

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Investments Currency Market Trends Global Finance
  1. The dollar's value is being questioned right now, which is important for understanding the economy. Many people are debating whether it's too high or just right.
  2. Larry Summers, a noted economist, seems optimistic about the economic outlook. His confidence might suggest some positive trends ahead.
  3. There are intriguing comparisons being made between gold prices, the cost of luxury items like Rolexes, and the state of Italy's economy. These links can help highlight larger economic patterns.

The Market's Mirror, Exhibit "A"

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Economics Stock Trading Financial trends
  1. The stock market might be slowing down soon, which is a concern for investors. It's important to pay attention to popular stocks for signs of this change.
  2. There's a belief that we could be on the brink of a significant market crash that could confuse many investors. Being aware of market behaviors can help prepare for what's next.
  3. Frustration with everyday items could be a sign of larger issues, showing that people are feeling the stress of the current economic situation. This reflects broader feelings about the market right now.

Top Links 626 The coming US labour market shock. Brazil and the bond vigilantes, China and the demand for gold & the triumph of cellular.

Chartbook • 343 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
💰 Finance Labor Market Immigration Economic Trends Investment
  1. The US labor market is expected to face a significant shock soon. This means there might be big changes in job availability and employment rates.
  2. Brazil is experiencing challenges from bond vigilantes. These are investors who are cautious about government bonds and could influence Brazil's economy.
  3. China is seeing an increased demand for gold. This trend indicates shifts in how people are valuing money and investments in that country.

The Bear Cave #255

The Bear Cave • 676 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Corporate News Economic Trends Financial Analysis
  1. Hims & Hers Health could be in trouble if the FDA removes its shortage label on semaglutide, which would stop them from selling compounded versions of the drug.
  2. Recent reports revealed Carvana's questionable dealings related to $800 million in loan sales and a possible SEC investigation, leading to a significant drop in their stock.
  3. There have been several high-profile executive resignations recently, indicating potential instability in companies like Integral Ad Science and Aurora Innovation.
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Top Links 628 Will IPOs recover? Worrying about France. The chances of a new pandemic & atomic spaghetti.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Economics IPOs Pandemics
  1. IPOs have been quiet even though US stocks are doing well. This surprises some people.
  2. There's a concern about France and its current issues. People are paying attention to what could happen next.
  3. Discussions about new pandemics and food safety are becoming important. It's a reminder that we need to stay informed and be cautious.

First Rate Cut + Q&A

DeFi Education • 779 implied HN points • 23 Aug 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Labor Market Interest Rates Economic Trends
  1. The Federal Reserve is making changes to its policies, indicating the economy is shifting. This could affect things like interest rates and inflation.
  2. Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that they don’t want the economy to cool down too much. This suggests they are looking for a balance between growth and stability.
  3. There is a focus on the labor market and inflation, which are key indicators for the economy. These factors will influence future decisions from the Federal Reserve.

The Transcript Editor's Commentary

The Transcript • 99 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Investing Monetary Policy Capital Markets Earnings Reports
  1. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo recently reported stable profits, showing no significant changes in the economy. This suggests that businesses remain steady despite economic shifts.
  2. The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates has helped lift capital markets positively.
  3. The effects of monetary policy, like interest rate changes, often take time to show in the economy, explaining why things seem unchanged right now.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 281 implied HN points • 20 May 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Monetary Policy Financial Education
  1. Cash is flowing back into the money markets, leading to calmer conditions. This means there's plenty of cash available, which is a good sign.
  2. The recent panel discussions revealed that issues in the market were influenced by trade tariffs and how they affected different types of financial trades. Understanding these factors can help make better investment decisions.
  3. Despite some panic over the Moody's downgrade, experts believe it's not a big deal and the U.S. Treasuries are still a safe bet. Overall, it's a stable time to consider investing in Treasuries.

Top Links 625 Decomposing economic surprise. When threats work and when they don't. Is quantum the new AI? And the Secret Leviathan.

Chartbook • 300 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Trends Market Analysis Investment Strategies Global Economics Data Analytics
  1. The Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index for the US shows how unexpected events in the economy can change predictions. It's important to pay attention to these surprises to get a better understanding of the current economic climate.
  2. Understanding when threats are effective or not can help in managing situations better. Knowing the right time to take action can make a big difference in outcomes.
  3. Quantum technology is being compared to AI as a new frontier in innovation. It's exciting to think about how these technologies might change our future.

California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Investment Market Trends Economic Indicators Real Estate
  1. California home sales fell by 1.9% in January compared to last year. This drop marks the first year-over-year decline in eight months.
  2. The median price for homes in California decreased from December but is still 6.3% higher than a year ago. This shows mixed signs in the housing market.
  3. Inventory of homes for sale increased significantly, up 27.4% year-over-year. More homes are available now, which could change the dynamics of the market.

5 Years Ago

Spilled Coffee • 32 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic History Stock Market Personal Finance
  1. The stock market can bounce back even after big drops like during the COVID-19 pandemic. If you had invested back when the market was at its highest before the crash, you would have seen a big gain over time.
  2. Missing just a few days in the market can really hurt your long-term investment returns. It's important to stay invested, even during uncertain times.
  3. Major world events can cause market crashes, but history shows that the stock market often continues to rise over time. This means it's wise to stick with your investments, no matter what happens.

Top Links 623 The billionaire rally. NYC's taxi-insurance Ponzi scheme. Obvious bollocks about sterling assets & monster wolves in Japan.

Chartbook • 314 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Economics Financial regulation Wealth Management
  1. There's a strong focus on the impact of billionaires on the economy, hinting at a rally or surge among them. This suggests wealth concentration is becoming a big topic of discussion.
  2. The mention of a proxy involving NYC's taxi-insurance points to issues around trust in financial systems and possible schemes that hurt everyday people.
  3. References to rumors about sterling assets and unusual wildlife in Japan show how sometimes wild stories can capture attention, but they might not hold any truth.

Even More Problems at B. Riley (RILY)

The Bear Cave • 303 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Stock Analysis Investment strategy Regulatory issues
  1. B. Riley has serious issues linked to fraud allegations, which have harmed its reputation and led to a significant stock drop.
  2. The company's inability to file its financial reports has raised even more red flags about its stability.
  3. These troubles at B. Riley could also negatively impact CBIZ Inc, hinting at wider concerns in the market.

Don't be the Bryan Johnson of money.

Neckar’s Notes • 123 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Wealth Economics Personal Finance Market Trends
  1. Measuring money can be misleading. When focusing just on a number, like net worth, it can become unimportant and lose its meaning.
  2. Like health, money can dominate your thoughts when you don't have it. But when you do, it often fades to the background.
  3. Don't obsess over extreme methods to gain wealth or health. A simple, balanced approach can be more effective and sustainable.

Top Links 621 The eclipse of the primary dealers. Trading real for bitcoin. A nightmare underground & the unconquered.

Chartbook • 300 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💰 Finance Banking Investment Debt Trading Economics
  1. Primary dealers in finance are facing tough times managing a huge amount of government debt, which is pushing $50 trillion. This could change how they operate and their importance on Wall Street.
  2. There is a growing trend of people trading traditional currency for Bitcoin, indicating a shift in how we think about money. This could lead to big changes in the financial landscape.
  3. The concept of a 'nightmare underground' suggests that there are hidden issues or challenges in the financial world that need to be addressed. Recognizing these problems is essential for understanding the bigger picture.

Market Flow “Starting To Show Cracks”: Sang Lucci

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 13 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Trading Strategies Investment Risk Options trading
  1. The market is facing a critical moment, showing signs of weakness in its flow. It's important to pay attention to these signs.
  2. For a long time, the same few popular stocks have been the focus, but there's less new money coming in from big investors. This could be a problem for future growth.
  3. Retail traders have been the main buyers lately, but if their buying decreases, there could be trouble ahead for the market that relies on their activity.

Venture Capital Unbundled

Investing 101 • 235 implied HN points • 18 Jan 25
💰 Finance Venture Capital Investment Strategies Market Trends Business Models Economic Analysis
  1. Venture capital is shifting away from big brands and focusing more on individual investors. People want to work with specific individuals who they feel are genuine and relatable.
  2. Many investors are moving around to find better opportunities or roles, but this trend is also about the changing business model in venture capital. Investors are looking for ways to adapt and thrive in a new landscape.
  3. The term 'venture capital' is becoming less useful as it tries to cover many different investment strategies. There is a need for diverse approaches and voices in building startups, which is exciting and refreshing.

Top Links 619 The payments presidency. The coming rupee shock. Musk’s space juggernaut. Saffron in polycrisis.

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Payment Systems Fintech Cryptocurrency Economic Trends Global Markets
  1. There's a focus on how fintech and payments are shaping politics, especially relating to Trump's presidency. It's interesting to see money technology playing such a big role in politics.
  2. India is facing potential challenges with its currency, the rupee, which could create economic shockwaves. People should keep an eye on how this may affect the global economy.
  3. Musk's ventures in space are being discussed, highlighting the impact of private companies on space exploration. It's exciting to see how the future of space travel is changing because of new technologies.

Top Links 612 How global inflation came and went. The economic fallout from the coup in Korea and the revolution in Bangladesh & big trouble in Sturgis.

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Global Economy Inflation Economic Policy Market Trends
  1. Global inflation has seen significant changes, impacting economies worldwide.
  2. Political events, like coups and revolutions, can lead to serious economic fallout.
  3. Understanding these events helps us see how connected the world's economies really are.

Top Links 615 The great wealth avalanche. Chinese white-collar salary cuts. North Virginia, data centre capital of the world & My Beautiful Laundrette revisited.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Investment Markets Policy Wealth
  1. There is a significant shift in wealth distribution happening, which is often referred to as a wealth avalanche. This means that a lot of money is moving, impacting people's financial situations.
  2. In China, many white-collar workers are facing salary cuts, which can be tough for them and the economy. This situation can lead to broader economic effects.
  3. North Virginia has become a key hub for data centers, showing how technology and data management are growing in importance. This shift highlights the changing job market and investment opportunities.

Top Links 597 Costless disinflation. The world's undersea cable system. South Sudan's calvary & Jarmush takes us on a permanent vacation.

Chartbook • 715 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics Market Trends Investment Global Trade Policy Analysis
  1. Costless disinflation is interesting because it suggests ways to reduce inflation without any financial costs. This idea could really impact how economies manage price stability.
  2. Undersea cables are crucial for global internet connections, showing just how interconnected we all are. These cables help transmit information across the world quickly.
  3. South Sudan's cavalry highlights unique aspects of its culture and history. It also points to how different lifestyles and traditions exist around the globe.

The Art of Crypto Kayfabe

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 1076 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Cryptocurrency Markets Economy Monetary Policy
  1. The investment world can be likened to a wrestling league where different assets compete for your money. Each asset has its own story or gimmick to attract investors, just like wrestlers have unique personas.
  2. Bitcoin is often seen as a rebellious fighter trying to challenge the dominance of the US dollar, but it also plays a tricky game of pretending to be both a currency and an investment asset. This duality creates confusion about its true value and purpose.
  3. Like wrestling matches, the market can be influenced by emotions and narratives. The way assets are portrayed and the stories built around them affect how people perceive their worth and make investment decisions.

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 23rd

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 23 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Events Market Trends Earnings Reports Global Economy
  1. There are several important earnings reports coming up this week from companies like Zoom and Nvidia. These can give us insights into how these businesses are doing.
  2. Key U.S. economic events include jobless claims and consumer confidence data, which are important to track for understanding the economy's health.
  3. Global economic updates like inflation rates from different countries will also be released, giving a broader picture of the economic situation worldwide.

The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Investment Mortgage Monetary Policy Market Trends
  1. The neutral rate, which helps determine monetary policy, has increased back to levels seen before the financial crisis. This means current monetary policy might not be restricting the economy as much as previously thought.
  2. Some economists believe that the actual neutral rate is higher than expected, which could indicate that interest rates may not be as high as people fear.
  3. Fed Chair Powell agreed that the neutral rate has risen significantly since before the pandemic, suggesting a change in how we should view economic policy now.

January 2025 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economic Trends Construction Employment Market Analysis
  1. Residential construction jobs are not increasing much and have been stable. This suggests a slow period for the construction industry.
  2. The number of new construction starts was lower this month, indicating potential challenges ahead for the housing market.
  3. Despite issues in construction, there's a lot of political noise happening, which makes the calm in construction seem strange.

Problems at Sezzle (SEZL)

The Bear Cave • 443 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Payments Investments Banking Regulations Fraud
  1. Sezzle is a payment platform that allows customers to buy now and pay later, but there are concerns about its roles in facilitating fraud and illegal businesses.
  2. Some online pharmacies using Sezzle have been found to sell unapproved or counterfeit drugs, leading to consumer complaints about quality and delivery issues.
  3. Regulatory actions against companies like Google and past illegal activities show the serious risks and penalties involved in dealing with rogue online pharmacies.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Interest Rates Economic Indicators Home Sales
  1. Existing home sales are predicted to be around 4.09 million for January, showing a slight drop from December but an increase from last year.
  2. The average sale price for homes has risen about 5% compared to a year ago, indicating a continuing trend in increasing home values.
  3. The expected real interest rates have returned to levels similar to before the financial crisis, suggesting a more stable economic outlook.

Top Links 616 Global corporate debt surge. Chicago's fiscal blues. Depoliticizing the railways of the Raj.

Chartbook • 300 implied HN points • 12 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Economic Policy Global Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Global corporate debt is rising sharply, which might affect the economy. This shows companies are borrowing a lot more money than before.
  2. Chicago is facing serious financial problems. The city's budget issues could impact its services and operations.
  3. There is a movement to make the railways in India less political. This could help improve efficiency and service for train travelers.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Markets Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators
  1. The National Association of Realtors will report on January home sales, which are expected to decrease. People are anticipating a drop from December's sales figures.
  2. In January 2024, home sales were reported at around 4.00 million, showing a trend in sales that people are keeping an eye on.
  3. Data comparisons from January 2019 will also be included, helping to understand how the market has changed over time.

Ambiguity is worse than risk

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Risk management Market behavior Economic Policy
  1. Ambiguity can be more stressful than known risks. When people face uncertain situations about their jobs or income, they tend to invest less in risky assets.
  2. Financial insecurity leads to lower risk-taking in investments. People who feel financially unstable often shy away from stocks, choosing safer options like bonds.
  3. On a larger scale, countries with high financial insecurity may save less, which can worsen their economic situation. Improving financial security could help boost savings and reduce deficits.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Construction Market Analysis
  1. In January, housing starts dropped to 1.366 million, which is lower than both December's figures and January 2024's. This shows a ongoing decrease in new housing construction.
  2. Single-family home construction decreased by 8.4% compared to December, which indicates a slowdown in this sector. Meanwhile, multi-family units saw a slight increase year-over-year but still faced declines month-over-month.
  3. There were significant differences in regional construction patterns, especially in the Northeast, which experienced a notable drop, likely due to weather conditions.

Top Links 605 The story of FRED. Africa's looming debts. The world of copper & art in airports.

Chartbook • 429 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Debt Investments Market Trends Art market
  1. FRED is an important economic tool that helps track data over time, starting in the 1960s with economist Homer Jones. It shows how data can help understand the economy better.
  2. Africa is facing significant debt challenges, and awareness of these issues is crucial for global economic stability. It highlights the financial struggles many countries are experiencing.
  3. The connection between copper and art in airports showcases how different economic sectors can intersect. It's interesting to see how materials and art affect spaces we use every day.

Country Risk: My 2024 Update

Musings on Markets • 959 implied HN points • 24 Jul 24
💰 Finance Risk Assessment Investing Market Analysis Economic Factors Global trends
  1. Investing in a country is riskier depending on its political structure, level of violence, corruption, and property rights. Democracies can be unstable, while autocracies might promise consistency but can change suddenly.
  2. External factors like reliance on a single commodity, economic growth stages, and climate change can increase a country's risk. Countries tied to one resource are vulnerable to market shifts.
  3. Understanding country-specific risk is important for businesses and investors. Different countries have different costs of capital due to their risk levels, impacting investment decisions.

Would Lenin have approved of the IMF?

Global Inequality and More 3.0 • 1328 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Policy Monetary Systems Global Economy Financial Institutions
  1. The IMF has a specific role in ensuring countries maintain fiscal discipline and avoid excessive borrowing. This role is seen as necessary for economic stability, regardless of whether the system is capitalist or socialist.
  2. Critics often misunderstand the IMF's core mission, which is about discipline and accountability in fiscal matters. Austerity measures taken by the IMF are not inherently bad; they are meant to promote responsible economic behavior.
  3. If Lenin were alive today, he might actually support the IMF for its emphasis on fiscal responsibility and international trade management. He believed in the need for structured economic governance, similar to what the IMF provides.

Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investments Banking Mortgages Debt Economics
  1. Mortgage originations are showing different credit scores now compared to the bubble years from 2003 to 2006. This means people with lower credit scores are getting mortgages now.
  2. Delinquencies on mortgages are increasing, which means more people are having trouble making their payments on time.
  3. Foreclosures are still low, which is good news as it suggests that despite the rising delinquencies, people are not losing their homes at a high rate.

USDJPY: The Most Important Chart in the World

Kerman Kohli • 118 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
💰 Finance Currency Markets Debt Management Global Trade Interest Rates
  1. The Japanese Yen's value impacts global trade. When the Yen is weak, Japanese exports become cheaper for other countries, but imports get more expensive.
  2. Japan's massive debt isn't a problem as long as their interest rates stay low. This keeps borrowing cheap, allowing them to manage their debts without immediate consequences.
  3. The USD/JPY exchange rate is crucial for understanding the global economy. Changes in this rate can affect investments and interest rates in other countries, making it a key chart to watch.

Economic Errors

David Friedman’s Substack • 655 implied HN points • 28 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics Wealth Trade Investment Tariffs
  1. Wealth isn't just cash; it can be land, stocks, or buildings. A person's gain in wealth doesn't mean someone else has to lose money.
  2. When countries trade, it’s not just about wages. The value of currencies affects trade costs, and tariffs can disrupt these complex economic balances.
  3. People often hold on to incorrect economic beliefs because they sound easier or support their self-image. Understanding the real logic behind economics can be complicated but helps us see the true picture.