The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics
Chartbook • 500 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
  1. US financial firms strongly back Trump and have benefited from his return; Citi, once the principal casualty of 2008, is highlighted as a notable beneficiary.
  2. Pro‑MAGA sentiment in financial circles often sidelines data and emphasizes political loyalty over evidence.
  3. The coverage mixes finance with international and intellectual themes, noting developments like Cambodia’s payments system and a recurring Hegel reference.
Chartbook • 457 implied HN points • 21 Feb 26
  1. US equities are having a rough start to 2026, with markets showing clear weakness.
  2. There’s a renewed focus on Keynes’s ideas about the role of the state in the economy.
  3. The selection also points to urban themes like “cities without ground” and a piece on Pol Roger, mixing cultural and urbanist interest with the economic coverage.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 263 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26
  1. Mortgage-backed security yields fell when 10-year Treasuries briefly dropped below 4%, but MBS spreads to Treasuries widened and are now about as wide or wider than before the GSE purchase announcement.
  2. Spreads had narrowed earlier due to very low rate volatility and expectations that GSEs were buying more MBS, yet rising implied and actual interest-rate volatility has pushed spreads wider again as markets reassess how sustainable the tight spreads are.
  3. January GSE holdings rose only modestly (Freddie ~$3.9B, Fannie ~$11.5B), but those monthly figures show settled purchases only and don’t reflect commitments that would mostly settle in February or later, so they don’t reveal the true pace of GSE buying.
Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 22 Feb 26
  1. Manufacturing employment is rising across Asia and the Pacific, reinforcing the region's role as a global manufacturing hub.
  2. There is renewed focus on revaluing the RMB, a development that could shift trade balances and international financial flows.
  3. Coverage also highlights political and cultural pieces like "Golf in DC" and "Endgame," pointing to debates about power, influence, and the dynamics of contemporary politics.
CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 229 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
  1. Existing home sales look to be flat or slightly down year‑over‑year, with early-reporting markets showing about a 2.9% drop and sales well below February 2019 levels.
  2. New listings and active inventory are rising — new listings were up roughly 5.5% year‑over‑year and active inventory climbed about 12%, so more supply is coming onto the market.
  3. Local conditions vary: Las Vegas is seeing slower sales, lower prices and rising inventory, while the Pacific Northwest has transactions down around 3% and listings up about 28% even as mortgage rates sit near 6.1%.
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Behavioral Value Investor • 200 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
  1. Use the PULSE framework as a fast triage tool that pulls five financial "vitals" from all three statements so you can quickly sort stocks into not interesting, attractive-but-expensive, or attractive-at-a-good-price. This lets you focus deeper research only on the most promising ideas.
  2. Look first at Economic Profit over time and Underlying Free Cash Flow (adjusted for stock options and compared to net income) to see if a business truly earns above its cost of capital and converts profits into real cash. Consistent, rising economic profit and a healthy FCF-to-net-income ratio signal higher quality.
  3. Always check leverage and valuation together: use Net Debt/EBITDA to spot risky capital structures, a Smoothed FCF yield (multi-year average brought forward by expected growth) to assess sustainable valuation, and an EV cap rate (last 12 months plus debt) to avoid companies that only look cheap because of heavy debt. Combining these measures helps catch hidden risk and find genuinely attractive prices.
Behavioral Value Investor • 118 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26
  1. The PULSE framework is a quick triage tool that uses five financial signals to decide if a stock deserves deeper research.
  2. Adobe scores very well on economic profits, underlying free cash flow, and low leverage, while its smoothed FCF yield and EV cap rate (around 7%+) make it interesting despite recent CEO news and AI fears.
  3. This is a historical, high-level screen—not a buy recommendation—so you should do detailed, independent research before considering an investment.
The Save Journalism Committee • 309 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26
  1. Major newsletters accepted paid crowdfunding ads without adequate vetting or clear disclosures, which lent prestige to misleading pitches and left ordinary readers exposed to big financial losses.
  2. Crowdfunded startup markets suffer severe information asymmetry—most deals look like lemons to outside investors—so casual retail buyers are much more likely to lose money than to get rich.
  3. There are clear fixes: require plain‑English, prominent financial disclosures on fundraising pages, add stronger consumer warnings or consent steps, and either tighten or eliminate risky crowdfunding programs while publishers refuse ads they haven’t properly vetted.
COVID Reason • 237 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
  1. China had a huge economic boom driven by global demand for its products, creating an illusion of strong governance.
  2. The 2008 global crisis revealed China's vulnerabilities, leading to rising debt and a focus on real estate to cope with slowed growth.
  3. Now, China's heavy debt and real estate issues are growing problems, signaling a decline in globalization that previously supported its economy.
QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 20 Mar 26
  1. Three microcap stocks are being watched as potential bargains if the market keeps falling.
  2. One of the names was knocked around recently but its long-term thesis still appears intact, so it’s worth revisiting.
  3. The full details and specific stock write-ups are behind a paywall and require a paid subscription to access.
Chartbook • 472 implied HN points • 18 Feb 26
  1. Top Wall Street bank chiefs earned a combined $250 million in 2025—about $41 million each—highlighting huge executive pay and suggesting banks are being eclipsed by private finance and tech as sources of wealth.
  2. There is a major fight over stablecoins, signifying rising regulatory and political battles around digital money and financial innovation.
  3. Geopolitical and economic pressure is a theme, shown by measures described as strangling Cuba and Vietnam’s invocation of its 'four nos' policy stance.
QTR’s Fringe Finance • 3 implied HN points • 23 Mar 26
  1. Collects proprietary stock ideas and shows the most recent stocks to watch along with past performance for selected picks.
  2. Features a yearly "Stocks I'm Watching" roundup that highlights specific picks and tracks how they performed across each year.
  3. The page is behind a paywall, so you need a paid subscription or to sign in to access the full content.
The Pomp Letter • 339 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
  1. US homeowners now have a record $35 trillion in home equity, which shows how much their homes are worth compared to what they owe on mortgages.
  2. The increase in home equity is mainly due to a housing boom during the pandemic, where demand surged while mortgage rates were low, pushing home prices higher.
  3. This huge amount of equity might lead homeowners to use home equity loans and second mortgages instead of selling their homes, especially since many have low mortgage rates.
QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 19 Mar 26
  1. The private credit crisis is spreading into another corner of the market, showing that stress is moving beyond the usual hotspots.
  2. A fund has gated redemptions in a different sector, which signals rising liquidity strains and growing reluctance to meet investor withdrawals.
  3. Earlier warnings about risky pockets of the market now look prescient, so investors should be cautious about private credit and related exposures.
QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 19 Mar 26
  1. The private credit market is showing real strain—rising defaults and capped redemptions—but it’s much smaller than the old subprime market, so it probably won’t by itself spark a global financial crisis.
  2. Banks are still at risk because they lend to private credit funds and already carry big unrealized bond losses and weak commercial loans, so losses in private credit could still spill over and hurt the banking system.
  3. A straightforward defensive step is to keep cash in ultra-short Treasury bills via TreasuryDirect to avoid bank counterparty risk while maintaining liquidity.
Don't Worry About the Vase • 2553 implied HN points • 05 Jan 26
  1. If AI and robots fully replace human labor while capital yields rising returns and humans keep owning and controlling that capital, simple math predicts extreme, potentially unbounded wealth concentration.
  2. Those key premises are fragile and unlikely: perpetual human control, inviolable private property, AIs having no property rights, continued human survival and enforceable global taxes are all nontrivial and may break in a transformed world.
  3. Redistribution tools like inheritance or wealth taxes could in theory address extreme inequality but face political, enforcement, and economic limits; the real outcome depends on who holds power and whether democratic control endures.
The Bear Cave • 1049 implied HN points • 25 Jan 26
  1. Short-seller and activist reports are piling up, accusing companies of accounting problems, customer disputes, and regulatory compliance risks.
  2. Several high-level executives have recently resigned, suggesting growing management turnover and possible governance or performance issues at those firms.
  3. Regulatory and legal enforcement is active, with SEC and DOJ actions underscoring increased legal risk for public companies.
The Transcript • 179 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
  1. The economy is doing okay overall, even though growth has slowed down a bit since the Fed lowered interest rates. It seems like things are more stable than expected.
  2. Consumers are still spending, and there’s no big drop in retail shopping, which is a good sign for the economy. Most people are managing to keep up with their finances.
  3. Investors are holding onto a lot of cash right now and might be waiting for better opportunities to invest. Many think current asset prices are too high.
QTR’s Fringe Finance • 27 implied HN points • 18 Mar 26
  1. Jerome Powell may be at a defining moment where his actions could have major consequences for policy and markets.
  2. Today’s Fed press conference and policy decision are especially important and worth close attention because they could shift market expectations.
  3. Detailed analysis of the situation is available only to paid subscribers, so the deeper takeaways are behind a paywall.
Spilled Coffee • 52 implied HN points • 18 Mar 26
  1. Nobody truly knows what the market will do; even famous investors and big firms are just making educated guesses.
  2. Better investors succeed through a rigorous process — disciplined research, solid risk controls, and the honesty to admit and cut losses when they’re wrong.
  3. Accept that investing is probabilistic: don’t trust confident guarantees, do your own homework, and focus on managing downside while letting winners run.
Progress and Poverty • 1885 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
  1. An 18-year land-cycle theory says fixed land supply makes real estate unusually prone to recurring speculative booms and busts driven by credit, building cycles, and expectations about future resale values.
  2. The historical pattern is suggestive but weak: the data set is small, several peaks require retrofitting to fit the 18‑year story, and market timing is generally unreliable, so the model is not a strong tool for precise investment forecasts.
  3. Recent housing indicators—high price-to-rent, a large real-estate share of GDP, falling affordability, and elevated new-home inventory—match the theory’s warning signs but differences from 2008 mean a crash is uncertain; the theory nonetheless implies that land-value taxation could dampen speculation and crises often create windows for policy reform.
Concoda • 302 implied HN points • 15 Feb 26
  1. The overnight fed funds rate is becoming unreliable because trading volumes have collapsed and rival interbank markets are emerging, putting the current mechanism near a breaking point.
  2. Since 2008, huge reserve growth has propped up the effective fed funds rate and hidden the decline in unsecured interbank activity, but that stability is fragile and no longer shows the true cost of dollar funding.
  3. The Fed will need a new target rate soon, and it is likely to consider options like administered rates (IORB or o/n RRP), an existing benchmark, a rates basket, or creating a new benchmark.
Chartbook • 515 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
  1. US wages have moved through clear phases of stagnation and growth, and recognizing those phases helps explain current patterns of inequality and labor-market dynamics.
  2. Stress testing is an essential tool for exposing weaknesses in financial systems and institutions by simulating extreme scenarios before real crises occur.
  3. Examining Roman trade routes highlights how long-distance economic networks shaped societies, and an existential historicist view shows how those deep structural forces change cultural meanings over time.
Chartbook • 529 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
  1. US fiscal and monetary politics act like a weathervane: critics worry about deficits when the other party is in power and ease off when their side governs.
  2. If the Fed’s leadership shifts toward figures like Warsh, the central bank may become more politicized and adopt deficit-focused policies that mirror partisan fights.
  3. The surge in defence firms such as Rheinmetall and concern about dangerous 'sparring partners' signal rising geopolitics-driven military spending and greater international risk.
TK News by Matt Taibbi • 2681 implied HN points • 21 Dec 25
  1. Robinhood grew fast by making trading feel like a game that gives quick dopamine hits, which attracts young, aggressive traders. That design encourages frequent, risky trading rather than long-term investing.
  2. The company’s main profit comes from selling customer orders (payment for order flow) to high-frequency market makers and pushing high-margin products like options and zero-day trades. Those products provide big leverage and can wipe out inexperienced traders while generating hefty fees for the platform.
  3. Robinhood is expanding into prediction markets, deeper crypto leverage, and partnerships with market makers to drive more engagement and revenue. That strategy locks users into riskier products and raises the chance many will suffer large losses if markets turn down.
The Bear Cave • 466 implied HN points • 08 Feb 26
  1. Activist and short-seller reports are increasingly targeting public companies, alleging overstated assets, insider enrichment, sham contracts, and hidden credit or revenue risks.
  2. A notable string of abrupt CFO and CEO departures across big firms points to rising management turnover and potential governance or operational problems.
  3. Markets and investors are increasingly worried about AI disruption hitting data, legal, finance, and outsourcing businesses, triggering stock selloffs and talk of shorting vulnerable incumbents.
In My Tribe • 258 implied HN points • 16 Feb 26
  1. Over the last 40+ years labor’s share of income has fallen while profits and capital’s share rose, and much of the stock-market boom is due to investors paying much higher valuations (P/E) rather than a big rise in earnings relative to GDP.
  2. Bitcoin trading relies heavily on highly leveraged perpetual-futures contracts that can force margin calls and cause cascading liquidations, making the market prone to sharp crashes.
  3. The income gap between the median family and the 80th percentile has widened a lot, so what counts as a “middle-class” lifestyle has shifted up and leaves median earners feeling poorer by comparison.
DeFi Education • 779 implied HN points • 23 Aug 24
  1. The Federal Reserve is making changes to its policies, indicating the economy is shifting. This could affect things like interest rates and inflation.
  2. Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that they don’t want the economy to cool down too much. This suggests they are looking for a balance between growth and stability.
  3. There is a focus on the labor market and inflation, which are key indicators for the economy. These factors will influence future decisions from the Federal Reserve.
The Transcript • 99 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
  1. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo recently reported stable profits, showing no significant changes in the economy. This suggests that businesses remain steady despite economic shifts.
  2. The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates has helped lift capital markets positively.
  3. The effects of monetary policy, like interest rate changes, often take time to show in the economy, explaining why things seem unchanged right now.
Chartbook • 1845 implied HN points • 29 Dec 25
  1. In 2025 US stocks and gold rose together into bubble territory, a simultaneous surge not seen in about 50 years.
  2. The likely drivers are a mix of abundant liquidity and shifting risk appetite: pandemic stimulus, low nominal rates, big deficits and easier retail trading have boosted credit creation and pushed asset prices higher.
  3. Retail investors have been buying aggressively while institutions pull back, creating a self-reinforcing bubble concentrated in the asset-owning top 20 percent and raising the risk of sharp market swings and wider political and social consequences.
Progress and Poverty • 654 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
  1. The Center for Land Economics launched a short-term Land Economics Fellowship that provides a $3,000 stipend, access to data and mentorship, and a public platform for 4–6 months of focused research; it’s open to people from many backgrounds and applications are due March 1.
  2. The Progress and Poverty Institute is offering Progress of Ideas grants (up to $10,000) to fund research on land value taxation and related topics; they’re especially interested in valuation methods, fiscal and distributional modeling, political messaging, legal constraints, and policy design, with applications due April 6 and eligibility limited to US 501(c)(3) organizations.
  3. The Henry George Foundation of Great Britain offers research grants for work on the modern political and ethical implications of Henry George’s ideas, especially with an international or UK focus, and there’s also a Land Research Network you can join via a short form to connect with other researchers and future opportunities.
Concoda • 540 implied HN points • 01 Feb 26
  1. The Fed’s bill buying has compressed the SOFR–fed funds basis and pushed overnight dollar funding rates into a narrow ‘sweet spot’ a few basis points below interest on reserves.
  2. Large banks are swapping reserves into Treasuries and keeping extra reserve cushions because of unrealized losses and outflow risk, so big dollar clearers are less willing to step in as backstops.
  3. Further Fed cuts will likely reduce excess reserves but make banks more willing to lend at tighter spreads, helping contain overnight rates and supporting a weakening macro outlook.
Construction Physics • 35493 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
  1. Homeowners insurance costs have risen a lot over the past years, with a 33% average increase between 2020 and 2023. This has made it tough for many to afford insurance, leading some to rely on state-backed options.
  2. While rising construction costs and home sizes explain part of the increase, climate change and more frequent severe weather events are likely major factors driving up insurance prices further.
  3. Interestingly, even though some types of damage have become less frequent, the cost to repair them has increased, particularly for wind, hail, and water damage, which contribute significantly to higher insurance losses.
Arpitrage • 470 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
  1. Finance work is mostly about processing large volumes of documents, and building pipelines to extract, index, and semantically understand those texts lets teams scale research, compliance, and automated actions. You still need provenance, governance, and clear workflows so those outputs are trustworthy.
  2. AI abilities are uneven: it can boost accuracy and productivity on tasks inside its capability frontier but can hurt performance outside that frontier, so humans need to stay engaged with clear roles (e.g., dividing work or iterating together). This also means guarding against cognitive complacency as tools get easier to use.
  3. Hallucinations are a core risk with LLMs, and the practical fix today is grounding models with retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) that pulls answers from a curated corpus. RAG reduces made-up claims but doesn't eliminate errors, so high-stakes outputs still require human verification.
The Novelleist • 325 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
  1. Design cities by starting with a clear vision of how people should live together, using that utopian horizon to guide practical planning choices.
  2. Treat land as a public good and organize its use around long-term stewardship instead of short-term speculation.
  3. Capture and return the value created by land to the community so cities become more stable, humane, and make residents stakeholders in local prosperity.
Chartbook • 543 implied HN points • 04 Feb 26
  1. Market moves recently reveal who really makes money from credit cards in the US, highlighting which companies benefit from fees and interest.
  2. Apple’s profit margins are a focus, showing how much of its revenue turns into profit and why that matters for investors and competition.
  3. A curated mix of links covers topics from skipping the grid and modern infrastructure choices to 18th‑century war machines, often illustrated with striking images.
TK News by Matt Taibbi • 2954 implied HN points • 05 Dec 25
  1. Big tech's huge, interconnected AI spending creates concentrated financial risk that could hurt ordinary investors, pensions, and insurers if revenues don't materialize.
  2. Much of the funding comes from private credit, off‑balance‑sheet deals and asset‑backed securities. That channels pension and insurance money into risky AI projects without beneficiaries' direct choice.
  3. Data centers and GPUs face real physical and valuation risks — overbuilding, tech obsolescence, local opposition, and uncertain long‑term demand — which could leave assets stranded and wipe out expected returns.
Chartbook • 672 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
  1. Big Tech’s move into AI is creating new risks for the bond market by concentrating data, models, and trading influence in a few platforms that could amplify shocks.
  2. The UK’s phase-out of coal shows how coordinated policy and market shifts can rapidly retire fossil fuel capacity and offers a practical model for energy transition elsewhere.
  3. Engagements like Pasolini on Gramsci and Trotsky on Europe show that cultural and political theory still shape how we understand national identity and continental politics, offering different lenses on power and change.
The Honest Broker Newsletter • 2227 implied HN points • 15 Dec 25
  1. The financial sector framed a new category called "climate risk" and built a regulatory and commercial ecosystem around it, treating it as a novel systemic threat to global finance.
  2. That risk has been measured mainly by economic losses from extreme-weather events, which often mixes up rising damages with actual changes in weather rather than accounting for exposure and vulnerability.
  3. Financial actors argue historical climate data is a poor guide and have pushed new scenarios, models, and private vendors to quantify "climate risk," creating a large market influence despite questions about the scientific basis.
Chartbook • 586 implied HN points • 01 Feb 26
  1. The Federal Reserve is growing more divided about the right path for interest rates, which could raise uncertainty for markets and borrowers.
  2. Policymakers and public-health groups are pushing to restrict junk food availability and marketing to combat obesity and related illnesses.
  3. Serious issues in foster care are staying hidden from public view, and a secretive SLS program underscores gaps in oversight and transparency.