The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

My Personal Investing Journey

Jay's Data Stream • 5 implied HN points • 19 Feb 26
💰 Finance Investing Personal Finance Portfolio Management Asset allocation Risk management Behavioral Finance Cryptocurrency
  1. Buy-and-hold only reliably works for broad index funds, because they spread risk across many companies; individual stocks or crypto can go to zero, so you can’t treat every asset the same.
  2. True diversification means different exposures, not just different labels — owning the S&P plus a bunch of U.S. tech bets is still concentrated; an automated, multi-asset portfolio with regular rebalancing helps you survive big drawdowns.
  3. Use clear rules and position sizing: keep a small YOLO bucket, only hold individual bets you would buy at today’s price, and pay attention to fees and fine print because small differences compound over time.

Central Banking in the Age of Chaos-Monkey Tariff Threats: It Would Not Be That Hard for Fed Governor Chris Waller to Do His Job Professionally

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 253 implied HN points • 18 Jul 25
💰 Finance Central Banking Economic Policy Inflation Tariffs Market Analysis
  1. Fed Governor Christopher Waller should push for an end to tariff chaos, which creates inflation risks. It's important for him to act professionally and prioritize stability.
  2. Current interest rates may need to go down since they could be too high for economic growth. The Fed should be cautious and not cut rates hastily amid ongoing tariff issues.
  3. The Federal Reserve's credibility relies on resisting political pressure. They should remind the Executive that stable economic policies need changes in how the government operates.
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Top Links 762 Historicizing fx reserves. Russia's economy running hot. The fall of a fascist explorer & the "Ruler of My Heart".

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 07 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economics Investing Global Markets Financial Analysis International relations
  1. FX reserves are important to understand as they reflect a country's financial health and global standing. Historicizing these reserves helps us see how they've changed over time.
  2. Russia's economy is experiencing significant growth, which has both local and global implications. It's a situation worth monitoring as it may affect global markets.
  3. The discussion around a 'fascist explorer' suggests an examination of controversial figures and their influence on society. It highlights the importance of understanding complex historical narratives.

How to Defend Cash in under 5 Minutes

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 637 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💰 Finance Currency Economics Digital Payments Monetary Policy
  1. Cash is important to protect against digital payment surveillance and control. Transitioning to a fully cashless society can lead to loss of personal freedom and privacy.
  2. Instead of arguing against the convenience of digital payments, it might be better to present a new perspective on why cash is valuable. Analogies can help get the message across more easily.
  3. Educating others about the risks of a cashless society takes practice. Finding quick, relatable ways to share your views can be more effective than trying to challenge established beliefs directly.

Why Did The BOJ Move Despite Conflicting Evidence on Wages and Prices?

Japan Economy Watch • 179 implied HN points • 21 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economy Banking Inflation Monetary Policy Wages
  1. The Bank of Japan's decision to make monetary policy changes despite unclear wage and price trends was questioned.
  2. There was no immediate financial market pressure on the BOJ to act, as rates were stable and not pushing past set levels.
  3. Conflicting data on wage trends created uncertainty, with various databases showing contradictory evidence, making predictions difficult.

Earnings, Cash Flows and Free Cash Flows: A Primer

Musings on Markets • 1538 implied HN points • 31 Oct 22
💰 Finance Investing Valuation Cash Flow Equity Market Analysis
  1. Free cash flow (FCF) is a crucial metric that shows how much cash a company generates after covering its expenses and investments. It's often misused in finance, so it's important to know the real meaning behind it.
  2. When valuing a company, understanding its free cash flow helps in predicting future performance. Different methods are used based on whether you're looking at equity or the whole business.
  3. As companies age, their financial characteristics change. Younger companies usually have negative free cash flows while older, established companies tend to produce positive cash flows and return money to shareholders more consistently.

The Bank of England's Jonathan Haskel on Inflation, Productivity, Brexit, and More

The Overshoot • 511 implied HN points • 13 Feb 23
💰 Finance Inflation Productivity Brexit Monetary Policy Economic Impact
  1. The Bank of England is grappling with the challenges of high inflation, low GDP, and rising unemployment due to tight labor and energy markets.
  2. There is significant uncertainty in economic forecasts, leading to a cautious approach in monetary policy decisions.
  3. Brexit has had a major impact on the UK's productivity growth and economic performance, with factors like weak business investment and health-related inactivity contributing to the situation.

Brad Setser Says Smart Things on Exorbitant Privilege Unearned & Earned

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 322 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investments Economics Global Markets Monetary Policy Trade
  1. The dollar's power is not just a natural right; it relies on global faith in American institutions and returns. It's a constant balance that can shift quickly if trust is lost.
  2. Private investors have played a huge role in keeping investment flowing into the U.S., as they seek returns and perceived safety. This pattern has changed from reliance on central banks to a focus on individual investors.
  3. The stability of the dollar could be threatened by political issues within the U.S. If the legal and financial systems weaken, trust may fade and capital could flee quickly.

DeFi: Frax Finance completes V3 rollout with on-chain bonds

The Fintech Blueprint • 275 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
💰 Finance DeFi Digital Assets Stablecoins NFTs
  1. Frax Finance introduces on-chain bonds called FXBs, resembling zero-coupon bonds and converting to FRAX stablecoin upon maturity.
  2. The emergence of interest-bearing stablecoin projects like sFRAX and USDe is likely to shift focus from non-interest paying stablecoins like USDT.
  3. There has been a significant growth in Total Value Locked (TVL) in tokenized securities with U.S. Treasury exposure, reaching around $790MM.

Investing Update: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Spilled Coffee • 36 implied HN points • 03 Jan 26
💰 Finance Markets Stocks Investing Portfolio Macro Commodities Sectors
  1. The market finished 2025 strong—S&P up about 16%, Nasdaq over 20%, and the Dow up 13%—continuing a multi‑year bull run while still seeing volatility, including a roughly 19% drawdown.
  2. Returns were concentrated and mixed across sectors and stocks. Only two mega‑cap techs beat the S&P, three sectors outperformed, and winners included communication services, semiconductors, gold miners, metals, clean energy, and silver.
  3. Active calls and stock picking paid off: a year‑end S&P forecast landed within 1% and an actively managed portfolio outperformed the S&P, showing active management can succeed but is hard to do consistently.

What does a Commodity Trader do?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 199 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💰 Finance Trading Commodities Market Analysis Risk management Investment Strategies
  1. Commodity traders buy and sell things like oil, gold, and wheat. They try to predict price changes based on global events to make profits.
  2. Their work impacts everyday prices for many products we use, helping producers manage risks and securing stable prices for the future.
  3. Traders pay attention to weather, politics, and market feelings to make informed decisions, using tools like futures contracts and diversification to manage risks.

Tech stocks and Treasury yields Spread

Quant Trading Rules • 79 implied HN points • 02 Jun 24
💰 Finance Investing Trading Tech Stocks Strategies
  1. Peter Thiel emphasizes the importance of future cash flows in valuing technology companies, projecting significant value from profits generated well into the future.
  2. Interest rates, linked to Treasury bond yields, affect stock valuations by altering discount rates for future cash flows, particularly impacting tech stocks with high growth expectations.
  3. Implementing trading strategies based on spreads and RSI signals between tech stocks (like QQQ) and Treasury bonds (like TLT) can show variations in returns, with opportunities for leveraging and rule adjustments to potentially improve performance.

The Best Investing Advice

The Generalist • 760 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Venture Capital Market Analysis Decision-making
  1. Investing is all about finding great companies, not just good deals. Focus on what makes a company truly outstanding.
  2. Diversify not just across different industries, but also over time. Don't rush into investments; think long-term and consider market changes.
  3. Startups should offer something unique that stands out. Instead of competing with existing options, create a choice that reshapes the conversation.

Top Links 637 America's trade deficits. The robots are coming. Israeli defense exports & Khian Sea - the toxic ship.

Chartbook • 615 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
💰 Finance Technology Environmental Issues Global Economy
  1. America has a significant trade deficit, which means it imports more than it exports. This impacts the economy and job market.
  2. The rise of robots and automation is changing the workforce. Many fear job losses, but there are also opportunities for new types of work.
  3. Israel is a major player in defense exports, showing how countries invest in their military technology.

Breach of Trust: Decoding the US Banking Crisis of 2023

Musings on Markets • 839 implied HN points • 06 May 23
💰 Finance Banking Investments Economics Regulations Market Trends
  1. The recent banking crisis in the US started with the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which was unexpected and quick, leading to a series of other bank failures. This raises concerns about whether the crisis will impact the larger economy like the 2008 crisis did.
  2. Understanding what makes a bank strong or weak is essential. Key factors include how sticky their deposits are, the amount of equity they have to absorb losses, and the quality of their loan portfolios.
  3. The market's reaction to the crisis has been mixed, with larger banks holding up better than regional ones. However, the crisis may push more consolidation within the banking industry, affecting competition and overall bank profitability.

Stablecoin Wildcat-Bank Roulette: The Genius Act Gambles with America’s Money

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 292 implied HN points • 21 Jun 25
💰 Finance Banking Investments Cryptocurrency Regulation Economy
  1. Congress is considering allowing companies to create their own currencies through stablecoins, which could lead to financial chaos like what happened in the past.
  2. There are concerns that regulators may struggle to manage the many stablecoins that could flood the market, posing a risk to the economy.
  3. Instead of issuing more currencies, a better approach might be to adopt practices from the European Union to focus on reducing fees and helping consumers without overloading regulators.

Stuffing the Coffers

The Dollar Endgame • 279 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
💰 Finance Banking Regulation Economy Federal Reserve Financial Crisis
  1. Regulatory changes post-2008 require banks to hold more US Treasuries. However, banks are running out of space and time.
  2. The Fed made an exemption of Treasury bonds from the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) to boost lending and stabilize markets during the COVID-19 crisis.
  3. The SLR calculates a bank's solvency by dividing Tier 1 Capital against assets. Adjustments during crises help banks manage potential losses better.

The Bear Cave #255

The Bear Cave • 676 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Corporate News Economic Trends Financial Analysis
  1. Hims & Hers Health could be in trouble if the FDA removes its shortage label on semaglutide, which would stop them from selling compounded versions of the drug.
  2. Recent reports revealed Carvana's questionable dealings related to $800 million in loan sales and a possible SEC investigation, leading to a significant drop in their stock.
  3. There have been several high-profile executive resignations recently, indicating potential instability in companies like Integral Ad Science and Aurora Innovation.

HIBBETT: A Mathematical Nike | Financial Deep-Dive (Part 1)

Value Investing Substack • 275 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Financial Analysis Marketing
  1. Hibbett is a unique retail company marketing to a niche customer demographic in the sneakerhead culture.
  2. The business model of Hibbett resembles marketing-focused businesses like fashion brands rather than traditional retail.
  3. Hibbett's management exhibits strong financial acumen through optimal capital allocation and cost management.

The Bear Cave #256

The Bear Cave • 653 implied HN points • 12 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Markets Healthcare Corporate Governance Activism
  1. There are serious concerns about AppLovin's business practices, including alleged money laundering and low-quality apps. Activist reports suggest their recent growth is questionable.
  2. TransMedics Group is facing backlash for alleged unethical practices in organ transportation. Reports indicate they may have refused life-saving procedures due to billing issues.
  3. A number of executives in various companies have resigned recently, showing instability in leadership roles. This includes multiple CFOs and the CEO of Hershey, which may impact company performance.

Top Links 597 Costless disinflation. The world's undersea cable system. South Sudan's calvary & Jarmush takes us on a permanent vacation.

Chartbook • 715 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics Market Trends Investment Global Trade Policy Analysis
  1. Costless disinflation is interesting because it suggests ways to reduce inflation without any financial costs. This idea could really impact how economies manage price stability.
  2. Undersea cables are crucial for global internet connections, showing just how interconnected we all are. These cables help transmit information across the world quickly.
  3. South Sudan's cavalry highlights unique aspects of its culture and history. It also points to how different lifestyles and traditions exist around the globe.

Good (Bad) Banks, Good (Bad) Investments: An Investing Perspective

Musings on Markets • 819 implied HN points • 07 May 23
💰 Finance Investing Banking Valuation Market Analysis Risk management
  1. Good banks tend to have stickier deposits, which help them maintain stability. Buying a good bank at a high price might actually lead to losses compared to buying a bad one at a low price.
  2. Valuing banks is tricky because their cash flows and risks are different from other businesses. Instead of using traditional methods, one should often use a dividend discount model or a free cash flow to equity model.
  3. The price of a bank's stock can differ significantly from its actual value. Understanding both the intrinsic value and market price is key to making smart investment decisions.

Stablecoins: The Next Financial Platform

The Generalist • 2922 implied HN points • 16 Jul 23
💰 Finance Stablecoins Cryptocurrency Business Regulation Innovation
  1. Stablecoins solve real problems like moving value across borders quickly and cheaply.
  2. Stablecoins have signs of product-market fit with $125 billion in circulation and 1 million daily active wallets.
  3. Stablecoins are viewed as a financial infrastructure layer, serving as a platform for open, cheap, and programmable global payments system.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 183 implied HN points • 14 Aug 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Monetary Policy Investment Strategies Liquidity management Interest Rates
  1. The RRP is now at zero, meaning that banks are using all their cash effectively without too much excess cash lying around.
  2. Money market rates are stabilizing, and there are more places to lend money again, helping to keep the market from getting too volatile.
  3. Expect at least one interest rate cut soon, as the economic growth is slow and inflation is still a concern.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 259 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Debt Instruments Regulatory changes
  1. Bonds are in a good spot right now, with strong demand from investors despite some market ups and downs. They are seen as safe and still attractive to buy.
  2. The U.S. Treasury is focusing more on short- and middle-term debt instead of long-term bonds, which could impact interest rates. This shift might help them manage national debt more effectively.
  3. There could be some challenges ahead, like the potential for turmoil if debt levels are not managed well, especially as banks and investors navigate new regulations.

Newcastle United Finances 2021/22

The Swiss Ramble • 491 implied HN points • 10 Apr 23
💰 Finance Sports
  1. Newcastle United's financial performance improved after being acquired by new owners in 2021
  2. Despite increased revenue and profit on player sales, the club reported a record pre-tax loss of £73m in 2021/22
  3. Operating expenses significantly increased due to investments in the playing squad

Long Take: Is Apple's Goldman-powered 4.15% yield account the fintech apocalypse?

The Fintech Blueprint • 491 implied HN points • 19 Apr 23
💰 Finance Big Tech Banking Lending Blockchain Wealth Management
  1. Apple has launched a Savings account with a 4.15% yield through Goldman Sachs, creating a disruptive financial product.
  2. Goldman Sachs plays a significant role in the product's distribution, benefiting from Apple's massive consumer base.
  3. Other big tech companies like Google, PayPal, and Ant Financial have also made inroads into financial services, showcasing a trend towards tech-powered banking.

Issue #146: PayPal Gets a New CEO, Palmer Luckey's Bank Gets Its Charter, And Experian To Buy Own Up

Fintech Radar • 8 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
💰 Finance Fintech Payments Banking Crypto AI M&A Wealth Regulation
  1. Experian is buying an AI mortgage-shopping platform to move beyond credit reporting and directly steer consumers through mortgage origination, turning its data advantage into a distribution channel for lenders.
  2. A Palmer Luckey–backed neobank won a US national banking charter in under eight months, signaling that regulators are approving new charters much faster and opening a path for more fintechs to become banks.
  3. PayPal replaced its CEO amid board complaints about its pace of change, exposing a deeper identity problem where the company needs a clear strategic direction rather than just new leadership.