The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

What will 2026 bring?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
💰 Finance Real Estate Home Prices Housing Forecasting Mortgages Market Trends
  1. Metro-area analyses act as 'all else equal' forecasts, so they project outcomes assuming other factors don’t change while still needing to account for many variables.
  2. A near-zero 2025 home-price forecast (about 0.1%) matched the observed change in the Zillow Home Value Index, showing that small, precise forecasts can be accurate.
  3. The outlook for 2026 calls for roughly 3% home-price appreciation, even though expert forecasts for 2025 varied widely from about -2% to 10.8%.

Stimulation Theory

Malt Liquidity • 24 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
💰 Finance Wealth Management Trading Markets Investing Macro trends Fintech Behavioral Finance
  1. The public internet and algorithm-driven discourse are extremely volatile and risky, producing lots of low-signal, performative conversation that makes maintaining a public profile dangerous.
  2. A better approach is to stop publicly posting trades and performance and instead build a client-focused, scalable wealth management practice that protects proprietary thinking and relies on two-way feedback.
  3. Stimulation theory: aim for an optimal threshold of information so you can make informed decisions without getting fried by toxic constant flow, and build information pipelines that filter signal from noise.

HFT Does Not Make Sense Anymore

Low Latency Trading Insights • 255 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
💰 Finance Trading Strategies
  1. Early high-frequency trading (HFT) relied on low latency network technology for fast communication between nodes.
  2. HFT became popular during the subprime crisis of 2007-2008, but faced increased competition and regulatory challenges in the 2010s.
  3. The term HFT has evolved; it's now more about 'low-latency' trading and technology applications for better market execution.

Q2 2025 Update: Equanimity Investing

Interconnected • 231 implied HN points • 20 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Portfolio Management Economic Trends Financial Strategy
  1. Equanimity is important in investing; it's about staying calm and balanced during market ups and downs. This mindset helps investors make clearer decisions despite emotional stress.
  2. Finding the right technology companies to invest in can be tough. Those that are poorly understood or misunderstood offer unique opportunities but require patience and education to explain them to others.
  3. Mistakes are part of the investing journey. Continuously learning and admitting when a strategy doesn’t work is crucial for finding future successful investments.
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454: Biggest Bond Crash in 150 Years, Microsoft + Activision, ARM, Wikipedia, Jimmy Buffett, Semiconductors, and Tokyo Digital Twin

Liberty’s Highlights • 471 implied HN points • 16 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing Markets Economics Statistical Analysis Trends
  1. The biggest bond market rout in 150 years is happening now.
  2. Once-in-a-century events appear more frequently due to statistical misunderstanding, evolving baselines, and increased detection and reporting.
  3. Statistical probabilities can explain why 'rare' events seem to be happening more often in recent times.

Why Silver Is Going Batshit Crazy Today

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 43 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
💰 Finance Commodities Precious metals Markets Investing Trading Macro
  1. Silver is spiking wildly today, with an unusually large and sudden move in silver prices.
  2. A market-driven theory is proposed to explain the surge, suggesting this move may be caused by identifiable forces rather than random volatility.
  3. Gold is likely to follow once the silver-to-gold ratio consolidates, so further gold gains could come after that ratio settles.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 237 implied HN points • 10 Jul 25
💰 Finance Market Update Economic Policy Investment Strategies Debt Management Central Banking
  1. The recent debt limit uncertainty is making it harder for banks to get the money they need, which will likely push interest rates up. We can expect funding pressures in money markets to grow.
  2. The Federal Reserve plans to cut down on reserves, which means banks might have to compete more for cash. This could lead to the Fed needing to step in with measures to pump money into the system.
  3. Demand for U.S. Treasury bonds is holding steady despite fiscal worries. However, if concerns about the economy rise again, it could lead to changes in investment behavior.

Infographics: The Shadow Cash Market

Concoda • 313 implied HN points • 28 May 25
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Economic Policy Financial Instruments Cash Flow
  1. The shadow cash market involves various types of private transactions that are not easily tracked or regulated. This means that a lot of money moves around without official oversight.
  2. Overall, the liquidity in this market can act like bonds, providing a kind of security and stability for those involved. It’s an alternative way to manage and access funds.
  3. Understanding this market is important as it has impacts on the economy. It helps people see how money flows in ways that aren’t always visible.

Investing Update: Are Tech Stocks Rested & Ready?

Spilled Coffee • 20 implied HN points • 24 Jan 26
💰 Finance Equities Investing Markets Macro Portfolio Trading
  1. Tariff-driven geopolitical headlines can cause sharp, short-term selloffs, but markets often rebound after clarifications.
  2. A clear sector rotation is underway as leadership shifts in 2026 away from last year’s tech winners toward other sectors.
  3. The main open question is whether big tech is merely resting and will reassert leadership, or if the rotation will continue to keep those stocks sidelined.

Goldileo

Doomberg • 249 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Commodities Gold Market Trends Financial Analysis
  1. Investing in gold can be a smart choice in the commodities market. It's often seen as a safe investment amid financial uncertainty.
  2. Gold has a vital role in the global financial system. Understanding this role can help you make better investment decisions.
  3. The value and perception of gold may shift over time. Keeping track of these changes is essential for any investor.

FHFA’s Q3 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 30 Dec 25
💰 Finance Mortgages Housing Interest Rates Credit Loans Homeownership
  1. A big share of outstanding fixed-rate mortgages still carry very low pandemic-era rates: loans under 4% peaked at 65.1% (now 51.5%) and loans under 5% peaked at 85.6% (now 68.6%).
  2. Those low existing rates created a strong lock-in that kept many homeowners from selling because replacing their mortgage would sharply raise monthly payments, and that helped depress available home inventory.
  3. That lock-in is slowly eroding — the share of loans above 6% rose from 7.3% in Q2 2022 to 21.2% in Q3 2025, which should gradually increase mobility in the market.

Aston Villa Finances 2021/22

The Swiss Ramble • 471 implied HN points • 13 Mar 23
💰 Finance Sports
  1. Aston Villa focused on maintaining their Premier League position in 2021/22.
  2. They finished 14th in the league but saw a slight drop compared to the previous season.
  3. Steven Gerrard was replaced by Unai Emery as the manager in October 2022.

QPR Finances 2021/22

The Swiss Ramble • 471 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
💰 Finance Sports
  1. Queens Park Rangers finished 11th in the Championship in 2021/22.
  2. Mark Warburton left as head coach at the end of the season.
  3. The club has had three replacements for Warburton since June 2022.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Mortgage Rates Market Data Inventory Regional Markets
  1. Reports are being released earlier, which shrinks the early sample used for forecasts and raises the chance of bigger revisions; recent winter storms also delayed some closings and could make January sales look weaker than they really were.
  2. In the local markets that have reported, closed sales are down noticeably year‑over‑year (around -5.6% NSA), so seasonally‑adjusted national sales for January are more likely to be flat or slightly down instead of a strong gain.
  3. New listings are modestly down (~1.6% YoY) while active inventory is up (~5.8% YoY), so supply is higher than a year ago but still mixed compared with pre‑pandemic 2019 levels.

Lawler: Median Existing Home Sales Prices: Oops, They Did It Again

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Mortgages Fixed income Financial Markets Financial regulation Macroeconomics
  1. The NAR sharply revised up its November median existing-home prices—especially in the Northeast—so preliminary numbers understated recent price gains and further revisions are possible.
  2. Because the NAR released its report earlier than usual, local realtor/MLS data were limited and some sales and inventory figures (for example versus Realtor.com) look inconsistent or may reflect definitional changes.
  3. Most of the recent rise in 30‑year mortgage rates comes from a wider primary/secondary mortgage spread driven by higher GSE guarantee fees and increased servicing/origination and regulatory costs, while higher MBS yields account for only about 3 basis points of the roughly 57 bp increase.

Private Equity Explained

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 939 implied HN points • 13 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investments Private Equity Funds Capital Markets Economic Impact
  1. Private equity firms invest in existing businesses to help them grow and become more profitable, sharing in the profits as a result. It's like giving your friend's business a boost with your investment.
  2. These firms raise money from wealthy individuals, pension funds, charities, and banks to create a fund for their investments. This means they pool money from different sources to make bigger investments.
  3. Private equity can create jobs and drive economic growth, but it also has a reputation for being tough on company management and workers during operational changes. Understanding its impact helps you see how it can touch everyone's life.

The Bear Cave #258

The Bear Cave • 583 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investments Market Trends Financial reports Stock Analysis Corporate Governance
  1. Recent reports by researchers highlighted concerns about companies like AppLovin and Construction Partners, suggesting they are facing serious revenue and operational issues.
  2. There have been notable executive resignations at companies such as Blue Bird Corp and Lanzatech Global, indicating potential instability within those organizations.
  3. The SEC released FOIA logs suggesting certain companies are under investigation, as many investors see this as a red flag about their business practices.

No Fucking Idea: My Take On Markets Into 2026

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 50 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
💰 Finance Markets Macroeconomics Monetary Policy Investing Equities Fixed income Liquidity
  1. Markets are very uncertain for 2026: either a liquidity-fueled rally lifts prices regardless of weak fundamentals, or a slow-burn downturn hits as consumer debt and delinquencies worsen.
  2. Political pressure on the Fed could lead to premature rate cuts that damage policy credibility, raise inflation expectations, and push markets toward extreme steps like yield-curve control.
  3. Even with macro risk and noisy year-end forecasts, there will be overlooked pockets of opportunity where active hunting for underpriced assets can produce asymmetric upside.

Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 06 Jan 26
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Rental market Macroeconomy Market Data Urban Economics
  1. Asking rents are falling nationwide year-over-year and have been declining for many consecutive months according to multiple indexes.
  2. Rising supply and weak demand — driven by slower household formation, a construction surge in multifamily units, and higher vacancies — are keeping downward pressure on rents.
  3. Trends vary by type and place: single-family rents have risen modestly while multifamily and many metros show declines, with immigration policy and seasonal slowdowns also influencing demand.

How Low Wages Made Japan A Deficit Addict

Japan Economy Watch • 339 implied HN points • 07 Dec 23
💰 Finance Economy Government Income Investment Taxation
  1. Low wages in Japan lead to decreased consumer purchasing power, causing a need for government intervention through deficit spending.
  2. Household income in Japan has been declining over the years, affecting consumer spending and economic growth.
  3. Government deficits in Japan are used to finance consumer spending and support the economy due to stagnant wages and decreased savings.

Turnaround Tuesdays on Steroids

Quant Trading Rules • 79 implied HN points • 26 May 24
💰 Finance Performance analysis
  1. The Turnaround Tuesdays trading strategy is based on stocks rebounding on Tuesdays after a down Monday, with simple entry and exit rules tested over 31 years.
  2. Expanding the strategy to include Tuesdays and Wednesdays improved results, increasing annual returns and win rates while maintaining high simplicity.
  3. Utilizing leverage by applying the strategy to a leveraged ETF like TQQQ can significantly boost annual returns, although it may lead to more frequent and deeper drawdowns.

An Open Letter To Bill Maher

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 77 implied HN points • 09 Nov 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inequality Inflation Economic Theory Government spending
  1. The gap between rich and poor is getting bigger, which is a major problem that many people are angry about.
  2. Inflation is caused by poor choices in monetary policy, and both political parties share the blame for not fixing this issue.
  3. If we don't address these problems, we could face a serious crisis in the economy or a social revolt from those feeling left behind.

July ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool, Early Signs of Homeowner Risk Emerge

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 248 implied HN points • 07 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgage Home Prices Economic Trends Financial risk
  1. Home prices are cooling down, with some areas seeing more significant drops. This could affect homeowners' equity and lead to financial challenges.
  2. Many people are using adjustable-rate mortgages or temporary buydown options to manage monthly payments. While this can help now, it may create issues later when rates increase.
  3. Student loan debts are becoming a bigger problem for homeowners, increasing the risk of them falling behind on mortgage payments. Almost 30% of FHA borrowers also have student loans, and those struggling with student debt are more likely to have mortgage issues.

4 US banks crash in 2 months: Banking crisis explained by economist Michael Hudson

Geopolitical Economy Report • 458 implied HN points • 07 May 23
💰 Finance Banking Regulation Derivatives Market volatility
  1. Economist Michael Hudson discusses the collapse of four US banks in two months, including First Republic Bank being taken over by JP Morgan Chase, highlighting the deep ties between government regulators and bankers.
  2. The collapse of banks like First Republic Bank can be attributed to high ratios of uninsured deposits and risky long-term mortgages, demonstrating systemic issues in the banking sector.
  3. The banking crisis is a result of the government's bailout policies, with large banks like JP Morgan Chase being given favorable deals despite being rated as the riskiest, leading to the undue burden on the economy and the potential for a deep financial collapse.

EQUITY RISK PREMIUM

The MacroTourist • 452 implied HN points • 12 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Recent rise in long-term yields has made bond term premiums more important to investors.
  2. Equity risk premium is a topic that needs attention.
  3. Investors are considering selling stocks and buying bonds.

Asian Financial Crisis Redux

The Dollar Endgame • 199 implied HN points • 21 Feb 24
💰 Finance Markets Economy Policy Banking
  1. The Chinese yuan is weakening, reaching its lowest level against the dollar in a while. China taking measures like reducing the five-year loan prime rate to stimulate credit demand and revive the property market.
  2. Economists were surprised by the significant decrease in the reference rate by China, indicating the most substantial cut since its introduction in 2019. China is facing challenges from a property crisis, falling consumer confidence, and increasing deflationary pressures.
  3. China's central bank has been injecting liquidity into the financial system consistently through measures like reducing the reserve-requirement ratio for lenders and implementing regulations to support the yuan. The recent net injection of 1 billion yuan aims to maintain balanced liquidity post the Lunar New Year holiday.

Monetary Policy Is Monetary Piracy

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 28 implied HN points • 06 Jan 26
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Banking Banking System Gold Standard Economic Policy Financial regulation
  1. State-run monetary policy acts like theft because creating money for private banks concentrates wealth with insiders and helps cause recurring financial crises.
  2. Money and banking should be separated from the state; legal tender laws and special banking privileges (like protections for fractional-reserve lending) enable monetary piracy and should be repealed so people can choose competing currencies.
  3. A free market for money, grounded in private property and competition, would produce sounder money and make financial actors accountable to customers rather than the state.