The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Waiting for Home Prices to Fall? Don't Hold Your Breath

Home Economics • 137 implied HN points • 30 May 23
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Measuring changes in 'real' terms, accounting for inflation, makes more sense when talking about home prices.
  2. National indices may show home prices higher than a year ago, but adjusting for inflation reveals lower prices in real terms.
  3. The article emphasizes the importance of considering inflation when discussing changes in home prices.

Systemic Incentives

Confronting the Future • 137 implied HN points • 30 Aug 23
💰 Finance Banking Stablecoins Financial system Inclusion Competition
  1. When you deposit money into your checking account, the bank can use it however they want and only pay you a tiny amount, like 0.42% on average.
  2. Using stablecoins backed by short-dated T-bills can eliminate subsidizing risky borrowers, black box bank solvency issues, and slow payment transfers.
  3. Stablecoins may revolutionize the financial system by ensuring users do not subsidize risky borrowers, avoiding complex bank solvency risks, and eliminating legacy payment delays.

How to mess up a good company and not make any money along the way

SaaS Engineering • 137 implied HN points • 02 Jul 23
💰 Finance Investing Venture Capital Financing Business Operations
  1. Investing early in a successful company may not guarantee returns if mispricing and over financing occur.
  2. Selling secondary shares at various funding rounds can lead to a more secure return than waiting for a long-term exit.
  3. Maintaining a conservative financing trajectory can lead to attractive outcomes, even if less exciting than high-risk strategies.
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Currency Arbitrage for Real Estate in Argentina

BowTiedMara - Geoarbitrage & Mobility Assets • 137 implied HN points • 21 Jul 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Investments Currency Exchange
  1. Currency arbitrage can be utilized when buying real estate in Argentina through payment plans in USD or pesos.
  2. Investing in new construction projects in Argentina requires due diligence on the construction company's track record and the payment structures, such as Fideicomiso or SA/SRL.
  3. Non-residents can access payment plans for real estate in Argentina, leading to opportunities for profitable investments and potential currency arbitrage.

What is EBITDA?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 299 implied HN points • 16 Mar 23
💰 Finance Corporate Finance Investment Analysis Financial Metrics Cash Flow
  1. EBITDA stands for Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortisation. It's a way to see how much cash a company makes from its regular activities, without debt and accounting effects.
  2. To calculate EBITDA, you add net income, taxes, interest, depreciation, and amortisation. This helps give a clearer picture of a company's financial health.
  3. Companies like EBITDA because it shows how well they're doing without the impact of financing and other expenses. It's a key metric when looking at profits or selling the business.

Infographics: The Fed's Standing Repo Facility In Action

Concoda • 216 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics Banking Investing Monetary Policy Markets
  1. The Federal Reserve has a special tool called a repo facility to manage money supply in the economy. It helps banks borrow money quickly when they need it.
  2. This repo facility can provide short-term loans to banks, which helps keep the financial system stable. It's like a safety net during times of financial stress.
  3. Understanding how this facility works is important for grasping the bigger picture of economic stability and the Fed's role in it. It helps us see how money flows in the economy.

Dialing Back Restraint

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economy Policy Inflation Labor markets Interest Rates
  1. The Federal Reserve suggested that interest rates may have reached their highest point in this tightening cycle and could start decreasing later this year.
  2. The Fed is cautious about lowering rates too soon and wants to see sustained progress in managing inflation before making any major moves.
  3. Despite some challenges with inflation, the overall economy, especially the job market, remains strong.

The Bear Cave #162

The Bear Cave • 956 implied HN points • 26 Mar 23
💰 Finance Activist Reports Resignations Tweets
  1. New activist reports were published on various companies, highlighting inflated metrics and concerns about criminal activity.
  2. Notable executive resignations were disclosed in the past week, including CEOs and CFOs from several companies.
  3. The newsletter also featured tweets of the week, discussing topics like company legal risks and market observations.

There are Complex-Number One-Norm Square-Root of Probability Amplitudes of 0.006 in Which Sam Bankman-Fried Is Happy

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 676 implied HN points • 05 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing Risk management Probability Psychology Trading
  1. Amplitudes in quantum-mechanical superposition relate to philosophy-of-probability vs. psychology.
  2. Understanding the Kelly Criterion for betting based on win-loss odds and maximizing returns.
  3. Traders use the Kelly Criterion for survival, making positive-value bets, and psychological factors.

Lawler: More on the “Neutral” Interest Rate (R*)

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Macroeconomics Central Banks Housing Market Economic Models
  1. Different models produce very different estimates of the neutral interest rate (R*), so there is a wide range of possible values.
  2. No single model clearly stands out as the most accurate, which means model-based estimates are inherently uncertain.
  3. That uncertainty creates a dilemma for policymakers and analysts, who should treat model outputs cautiously and consider multiple estimates and the range of outcomes.

The Bear Cave #212

The Bear Cave • 466 implied HN points • 10 Mar 24
💰 Finance Activist Reports Resignations Tweets
  1. New activist reports were published on companies like Zillow, Adtalem Global Education, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, and Grifols, raising concerns about their operations and financial health.
  2. Significant recent resignations include CEOs and CFOs from companies like New York Community Bancorp, Funko, and NMI Holdings, indicating potential issues within the leadership of these organizations.
  3. Interesting articles related to investigations by the SEC on companies like Chemours, Skechers, and details emerging about the SEC's interest in Hospital Landlord MPT provide insights into corporate governance and compliance issues.

Kishida May Raise Corporate Taxes, Part I

Japan Economy Watch • 319 implied HN points • 30 Oct 22
💰 Finance Taxation Corporate Governance Investment Economic Policy
  1. The Japanese government is considering raising corporate taxes after years of lowering them, due to disappointing outcomes such as insufficient investment and wage hikes.
  2. The need to finance a significant increase in defense spending is a major factor in the potential corporate tax hike, as relying on deficits is seen as irresponsible.
  3. Japan has a significant amount of retained earnings due to low shareholder power, leading to companies not reinvesting the cash in the economy.

Country Risk: The Mid-year Update for 2022

Musings on Markets • 519 implied HN points • 14 Jul 22
💰 Finance Investment Analysis Capital Markets Economic Indicators Sovereign debt
  1. Country risk varies significantly between different nations. Countries with stable economies and strong political systems are generally safer for investments than those with instability or violence.
  2. Corruption and legal protections are vital factors influencing country risk. High corruption levels can increase costs for businesses, while strong legal systems provide better support for contracts and property rights.
  3. Recent global events, like the conflict in Ukraine, have raised risk levels across many countries. This has resulted in higher costs of capital for investors and increased equity risk premiums globally.

The Times They Are A'Tricky

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 25 Jul 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Investments Economic Indicators Construction
  1. Regional housing sales and construction trends may not be as useful as they seem. The data can be confusing and may not reflect the real situation on the ground.
  2. New home inventory is increasing, which usually signals potential discounts in the market. But some believe it could lead to a recession.
  3. Home prices are significantly higher than they should be and may need to drop around 40% to reach normal levels. This presents both risks and opportunities for builders and investors.

Reading Kuroda's Mind

Japan Economy Watch • 239 implied HN points • 21 Jan 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates
  1. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda defied market expectations and successfully maintained Japan Government Bond rates below his target, causing losses for speculators.
  2. The perception of high inflation in Japan is misleading due to factors like food and energy prices and statistical illusions.
  3. To achieve sustained inflation and reach the 2% target, Japan needs significant wage hikes, as monetary policy alone has not been sufficient.

What You Can Learn From The Investment Committee Process

DeFi Education • 679 implied HN points • 22 Mar 22
💰 Finance Investment Private Equity Asset management Hedge Funds Venture Capital
  1. Having a clear investment process is important. Documenting what you do helps you improve and grow over time.
  2. Teamwork can enhance your investment decisions. Consider gathering a small group to discuss and evaluate investment ideas together.
  3. Monitoring your investments is crucial. Don't just set it and forget it; keep an eye on your assets and know when to sell or change your strategy.

Thoughts on the contract-for-differences (CfD)

GEM Energy Analytics • 179 implied HN points • 31 May 23
💰 Finance Energy markets Investment Strategies Renewable Energy Risk management Policy Analysis
  1. A contract-for-difference (CfD) helps energy producers by giving them a stable price. This way, they won't lose money if market prices drop.
  2. CfDs can reduce the risk of high profits during energy crises, aiming to keep electricity prices lower for consumers. They're designed to share some of the financial risks between producers and the government.
  3. The success of CfDs depends on accurately predicting future energy prices, which is really hard. If prices drop too low, it could hurt new energy projects and make it tougher for power producers to plan.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 30 Dec 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Home Prices Macroeconomics Market Data Regional Trends Mortgage Rates
  1. U.S. house prices are only rising modestly: Case‑Shiller’s national index is up about 1.4% year‑over‑year and the FHFA index is up about 1.7%, with small monthly gains after prior declines.
  2. There is strong regional divergence: Midwestern and Northeastern metros (e.g., Chicago +5.8%, New York +5.0%) are leading, while many Sun Belt markets (e.g., Tampa −4.2%, Phoenix −1.5%, Dallas −1.5%, Miami −1.1%) are down.
  3. High mortgage rates are hurting affordability and price momentum—16 of 20 major cities fell month‑to‑month—so national home price gains lag consumer inflation and imply slight declines in real (inflation‑adjusted) home values.

The Fed’s FAFO Moment Is Here

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 61 implied HN points • 25 Jul 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Cryptocurrency Inflation Economic Theory Public awareness
  1. People are now more aware of the Fed's actions and how they affect the economy. Thanks to memes and social media, understanding monetary policy has become easier for everyone.
  2. The Federal Reserve's credibility is fading as more people realize its reliance on low interest rates and money printing. This could lead to major shifts in how money is viewed and used.
  3. With growing knowledge, many are opting for alternatives like Bitcoin over traditional fiat currency. This trend indicates a potential crisis for the Fed if they can't regain public trust.

Some Thoughts On Using Auctions For Land Valuation

Splitting Infinity • 59 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💰 Finance Taxation Property Real Estate Economics Auctions
  1. Auctions can be considered as a method for assessing land values without the need for state-run assessments, allowing the market to determine the value of land.
  2. The use of auctions for land valuation can ensure transparency and fairness by providing everyone with the opportunity to bid on a piece of land publicly.
  3. While auctions may introduce some complexities like bargaining over home prices, they can still lead to reasonably accurate land valuations and generate significant tax revenue.

MoneyLion Pays $1.75M to Settle Military Lending Act Allegations

Fintech Business Weekly • 14 implied HN points • 30 Nov 25
💰 Finance Banking Regulation Fintech Crypto Consumer Finance Monetary Policy
  1. U.S. banks showed stronger results in Q3 with higher net income, slightly wider net interest margins, lower credit loss provisions, and smaller unrealized losses on securities.
  2. MoneyLion will pay about $1.75 million and must change its practices after regulators found it violated the Military Lending Act by letting membership fees push covered borrowers’ rates above the 36% cap and by blocking cancellations and certain collections.
  3. Most banks are not prioritizing stablecoins or tokenized deposits — only a tiny number see issuing a stablecoin as a high priority, though there is modest interest in holding reserves or offering custodial services for third‑party issuers.

Please Keep The Government Closed

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 17 Nov 25
💰 Finance Debt Policy Stock Analysis Investment strategy Economic Trends
  1. Keeping the government closed can actually be better for gold prices. When the government is open, it tends to spend more money, which can harm the value of gold.
  2. High national debt leads to rising gold prices. As the US debt increases, foreign governments are buying gold as a safer investment away from the US dollar.
  3. Recent market shifts show investors moving away from tech and crypto toward more stable investments like gold. This trend emphasizes the desire for safety during uncertain economic times.

Risk-Free Rate: What is the Price of Risk?

DeFi Education • 759 implied HN points • 04 Jan 22
💰 Finance Investing Risk management Market Analysis DeFi
  1. The risk-free rate is the return expected from a very safe investment, like U.S. Treasury bonds, and it helps investors judge the risk of other investments.
  2. As the risk-free rate rises, investors expect higher returns from riskier assets, meaning they want more compensation for taking on extra risk.
  3. In the world of DeFi, expected returns are usually much higher than traditional markets, but it’s important to understand the type of risks involved with different assets.

Venture Capital Fund Modelling: Masterclass

Venture Curator • 159 implied HN points • 14 May 23
💰 Finance Venture Capital Investment Startups Funds Job Opportunities
  1. When calculating the average check size for startups in a venture capital fund, it's important to consider operating expenses and fees charged by the VC fund.
  2. Venture capital funds divide their funding into initial investments and follow-on investments based on the fund size and agreements with limited partners.
  3. The average check size for a VC fund is determined by subtracting management fees, dividing the remaining fund size, and deciding on the initial and follow-on investment amounts.

State of the Market

Spilled Coffee • 56 implied HN points • 06 Aug 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Economics Investing Stock Market Employment
  1. The stock market had a rough day recently with big drops in jobs reports, but it quickly bounced back the next week. It's surprising how the market can recover so fast.
  2. There have been major downward revisions in jobs numbers for the past few months, removing a significant amount of jobs from the data. This shows there might be issues in the job market that we need to worry about.
  3. Despite bad news like job losses and global tensions, the stock market keeps going up instead of staying down. This raises questions about whether these problems are already reflected in market prices.

Crash Course in Corporate Financial Restructuring

DeFi Education • 519 implied HN points • 08 Jul 22
💰 Finance Corporate Finance Restructuring Investment Banking Consulting
  1. Corporate financial restructuring helps businesses recover from financial difficulties. It's like giving a struggling company a fresh start.
  2. The topic is complex and many experts have written books about it. This means there’s a lot to learn that can't be covered in just one article.
  3. Understanding the key points of restructuring can help people make better decisions in business. It's important to grasp the basics if you're involved in finance.

Understand Convertible Note Investment Option: The Valuation Game-Changer!

Venture Curator • 159 implied HN points • 10 May 23
💰 Finance Investment Startup Venture Capital
  1. Convertible notes can be a helpful option for startups looking to secure funding without immediate valuation, allowing time to build the company's value.
  2. Convertible notes are ideal for early-stage companies, especially those with a proven product and solid concept, helping them raise funds and scale effectively.
  3. From an investor's perspective, convertible notes offer a riskier but potentially more rewarding opportunity to secure equity at a discounted rate or via a valuation cap.

Does the rise of index funds make managers myopic?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
💰 Finance Corporate Governance Asset management Investments Markets Accounting Investor behavior
  1. Managers facing frequent quarterly guidance often favor strategies that smooth short-term earnings, even when those choices reduce long-term value.
  2. High index fund ownership tends to increase short-term decision making, but mainly at firms that already give frequent earnings guidance, because managers then aim for predictable results.
  3. The key issue is fewer long-term shareholders and the incentive to stay in indexes, so it’s the combination of ownership composition and guidance habits — not index funds alone — that drives myopic behavior.

Controlled Demolition Warning: Tokenization

Dr. Pippa's Pen & Podcast • 69 implied HN points • 02 Jul 25
💰 Finance Markets Investing Debt Economics Banking
  1. The global markets are facing big changes, preparing for a major cleanup of issues left from the past financial crisis. This is seen as necessary to fix economic problems that haven't been addressed.
  2. The current financial system is struggling, and there are plans to rewrite how it all works using new technology. This could involve drastic measures to help those affected by the mistakes of wealthier investors.
  3. There are multiple options for dealing with high debt, and one approach might involve using stablecoins to create a new financial system. This could help many people who don't realize the severity of the economic issues.