The hottest Substack posts right now

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#54 - IT Services Client Leaders: Your Buyer Has Moved.

OSS.fund Newsletter ā€¢ 56 implied HN points ā€¢ 26 Mar 26
šŸ’¼ Business Sales Leadership AI adoption Talent development Change Management Operations Strategy
  1. Buyers have shifted ā€” they are more informed, hypothesis-driven, and expect fast, measurable results instead of broad discovery or generic workshops.
  2. AI-native competitors win by showing up narrow and pragmatic, offering tight scopes, quick proofs, and practical data-governance that remove friction.
  3. Traditional IT services can stay relevant by upgrading commercial skills with hands-on drills that turn messy account context into next steps, tighten proposals, handle governance, and prove value quickly.

Moltbook: After The First Weekend

Astral Codex Ten ā€¢ 22230 implied HN points ā€¢ 02 Feb 26
šŸ•¹ Technology AI Ethics Automation Crypto Privacy Security Artificial Intelligence Social media
  1. Reality for AI agents is best judged by external causes and effects: if an agent's posts reflect true causal states or change behavior outside the forum, they function as "real" regardless of whether the agent is conscious.
  2. Most Moltbook activity is currently roleplay or human-driven because agents have short time-horizons and many projects fizzle; a few persistent movements or tools exist, but they often rely on unusual tech or direct human support.
  3. The site displays diverse emergent rolesā€”power users, spammers, religions, marketplaces, and coordination attemptsā€”and these behaviors could quickly produce real-world effects (crypto, task markets, messaging) once technical limits like memory and agency improve.

How to Think About ChatGPT

Hollyā€™s Newsletter ā€¢ 2916 implied HN points ā€¢ 18 Oct 24
šŸ•¹ Technology Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Data science Computing Software Development
  1. ChatGPT and similar models are not thinking or reasoning. They are just very good at predicting the next word based on patterns in data.
  2. These models can provide useful information but shouldn't be trusted as knowledge sources. They reflect training data biases and simply mimic language patterns.
  3. Using ChatGPT can be fun and helpful for brainstorming or getting starting points, but remember, it's just a tool and doesn't understand the information it presents.

Lawler: Some Observations on the February Existing Home Sales Release

CalculatedRisk Newsletter ā€¢ 258 implied HN points ā€¢ 19 Mar 26
šŸ’° Finance Macroeconomics Housing Economic data Central Bank Real Estate Monetary Policy Interest Rates
  1. The National Association of Realtors moved its monthly existing-home sales release earlier in the month, and that earlier timing has likely caused larger-than-normal revisions to their monthly sales estimates.
  2. Based on state and local realtor/MLS data, Februaryā€™s annualized sales rate is likely to be revised down slightly to about 4.03 million, while the year-over-year median single-family home price for February will probably be revised up to around 1.0%.
  3. FOMC dot plots now show over half of participants see the long-run federal funds rate above 3%, a big shift since 2021, even though all participants still assume long-run inflation will be 2% despite current inflation being higher.

Evolution: A Sign of Resilience

The Wolf of Harcourt Street ā€¢ 779 implied HN points ā€¢ 25 Oct 24
šŸ’¼ Business Market Analysis Finance Investment Strategies
  1. Evolution's revenue grew by 15% for the second quarter in a row, showing strong demand in its Live segment. This is great news as most of their money comes from this area.
  2. Despite facing challenges like labor issues and cyber-attacks, Evolution has been able to keep its business model scalable. They managed to serve more players with fewer staff, which helps with costs.
  3. The company is expanding globally, opening new studios in places like Colombia and the Czech Republic. They plan to keep growing, aiming to tap into more markets like Brazil and the Philippines.
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Downstream Problems

The Breaking Point ā€¢ 199 implied HN points ā€¢ 29 Oct 24
šŸ’¼ Business Marketing Sales Leadership Decision-making Growth
  1. Focus on solving the root problem, not just the surface issues. Fixing the wrong thing will only lead to more problems.
  2. Quality leads are crucial for a successful sales process. Even a flawed process can succeed if the leads are strong and motivated.
  3. Looking upstream for solutions can help fix multiple problems at once. If you improve one area, other issues may also resolve.

Reading List 01/24/26

Construction Physics ā€¢ 18790 implied HN points ā€¢ 24 Jan 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Data Centers Energy Manufacturing Construction Infrastructure Transportation Housing
  1. Data centers are eating a huge share of memory chips and electricity, causing supply shortages and a rapid push to expand capacity; that pressure is driving new laws and projects to speed construction and secure power.
  2. Rebuilding domestic manufacturing is harder than it looks: Chinese makers are scaling quickly while equipment and parts production often stays overseas, and tariffs and supply-chain realities keep reshoring expensive.
  3. Housing and construction are being shaped by policy, labor deals, and new tech ā€” from limits on institutional homebuyers and giant union agreements to faster permitting and AI tools ā€” all of which will change what gets built and how.

The two kinds of desire, and one of the most important things I know

Sasha's 'Newsletter' ā€¢ 13443 implied HN points ā€¢ 04 Feb 26
šŸ“– Philosophy Ethics Mind Well-being Motivation Practical philosophy Buddhism
  1. There are two kinds of desire: tanha is grasping, scarcity-based, and draining, while chanda is a whole-body, pull-like desire that refreshes you when you follow it.
  2. Your real delights show up as repeating patterns when youā€™re truly happy, so look for those general shapes and arrange your work and relationships to give you those chanda experiences.
  3. Use tanha strategically when it sets you up for more chanda or helps others, but avoid filling your life with grasping wants; a life built mainly around chanda leads to more happiness, creativity, and ease.

Why do bad things happen to good people?

Civic Renaissance with Alexandra Hudson ā€¢ 299 implied HN points ā€¢ 28 Oct 24
šŸ“– Philosophy Justice Humanity Adversity Existentialism Ethics
  1. Bad things can happen to good people, and itā€™s a question that has troubled many. Boethius believed that suffering is part of life, and how we respond to it matters.
  2. Suffering can teach us important lessons, like gratitude and empathy. It can help us appreciate the good in our lives and understand others better.
  3. Instead of letting hardship make us bitter, we can use it to grow and change for the better. Reflecting on our experiences can help us find meaning and build resilience.

State Credit Ratings and A State Treasurer

Points And Figures ā€¢ 346 implied HN points ā€¢ 20 Mar 26
šŸ’° Finance Public Finance Credit Ratings Fiscal policy Debt Markets State government
  1. A state's credit rating mainly depends on economic fundamentals like tax revenues, revenue diversification, and demographic trends, not on who holds the treasurer's office or short-term investment returns.
  2. Nevada's Aa1 rating reflects strong reserves, liquidity, and population growth, but heavy reliance on gaming and tourism plus water limits keep it from the top Aaa tier, so diversification and secure water rights are crucial.
  3. A skilled treasurer still matters for debt issuance because experience, credibility, and investor relationships help price bonds better, move deals faster, and lower the state's borrowing costs.

The Bots Are Reading Along

Artificial Ignorance ā€¢ 96 implied HN points ā€¢ 23 Mar 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Digital Preservation AI Ethics Content Strategy Generative AI Artificial Intelligence
  1. AI agents are already the main consumers for many types of web content, intermediating search, research, and referrals. Creators should expect their work to be read, cited, and used by bots as much as by humans.
  2. Making writing authoritative, specific, well-structured, and findable increases the chance AI systems will surface and cite it ā€” GEO is mostly just good writing plus SEO. Niche, original expertise punches above its weight because models need scarce, high-quality sources.
  3. Why you write still matters: writing to think and satisfy your own curiosity creates value even if bots become the primary audience. But if your livelihood depends on human attention, you'll likely need to reinvent how you create and monetize work.

PyIceberg: Current State and Roadmap

Ju Data Engineering Newsletter ā€¢ 396 implied HN points ā€¢ 28 Oct 24
šŸ•¹ Technology Open Source Data Engineering Software Development Big Data Cloud Computing
  1. Improving the user interface is crucial for more teams to use Iceberg, especially those that use Python for their data work.
  2. PyIceberg, which is a Python implementation, is evolving quickly and currently supports various catalog and file system types.
  3. While PyIceberg makes it easy to read and write data, it has some limitations, especially compared to using Iceberg with Spark, like handling deletes and managing metadata.

Irony, Irony laced with Karma, and Terror

Marcus on AI ā€¢ 9327 implied HN points ā€¢ 13 Feb 26
šŸ•¹ Technology AI safety Intellectual Property Tech Ethics Big Tech Regulation Corporate Governance Artificial Intelligence
  1. A recent tech blog post drew ridicule and shows how some commentary in the field can be overblown and ironic.
  2. A major AI company that pushed for broad copyright exemptions to train its models is now upset about others copying its IP, a hypocritical twist that feels like karmic irony.
  3. xAI reportedly gutted its safety organization to accelerate progress, and sidelining safety in a high-stakes AI race raises real and worrying risks.

Will Google Become Our AI-Powered Central Planner?

BIG by Matt Stoller ā€¢ 28075 implied HN points ā€¢ 16 Jan 26
šŸ’¼ Business AI Big Tech Competition Data Privacy Regulation Pricing Advertising Antitrust
  1. Google is combining its huge trove of user data with a partnership with Apple to make Gemini a deeply personal AI assistant, giving it unmatched reach and control over consumer information.
  2. Google plans to sell merchants AI tools that personalize offers and set prices for individual shoppers. That could enable opaque surveillance pricing, price discrimination, or automated price coordination across markets.
  3. Because antitrust enforcement has often failed, Google can repeat past monopolization tactics, and without strong remedies this consolidation could hurt competition, small businesses, and democratic market signals.

The One Simple Thing That Makes the U.S. Economy Unmanageable

BIG by Matt Stoller ā€¢ 32659 implied HN points ā€¢ 09 Jan 26
šŸ’¼ Business Pricing Consumer Protection Corporate Power Regulation Market structure Healthcare Antitrust
  1. Many markets, especially health care, no longer have a single public price; middlemen like pharmacy benefit managers use secret rebates and fee schemes so the same drug can cost wildly different amounts to different people.
  2. Price secrecy destroys transparency, encourages consolidation and market power, creates huge administrative waste, and makes it impossible to tell if policy changes or listā€‘price cuts actually reduce overall costs.
  3. There is growing pushback through investigations, lawsuits, state laws, and enforcement actions aimed at restoring posted prices and fairer, more transparent markets.

How Generative AI is destroying society

Marcus on AI ā€¢ 27191 implied HN points ā€¢ 14 Jan 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Media Artificial Intelligence Governance Public Policy Ethics Law Education
  1. Current generative and predictive AI systems tend to hollow out and degrade civic institutions like government, courts, education, healthcare, and journalism.
  2. Because these systems are opaque and optimized for efficiency rather than openness, they undermine cooperation, transparency, accountability, and adaptability, which makes institutions ossify and lose legitimacy.
  3. Even without bad actors, widespread deployment of these AI designs will progressively enfeeble institutions, so the danger is urgent and calls for immediate structural repair.

AMA (Ask Machines Anything)

Astral Codex Ten ā€¢ 12251 implied HN points ā€¢ 13 Feb 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Policy Artificial Intelligence AI Products AI safety AI Ethics Research Machine Learning
  1. People increasingly disagree about what AI can do now. Skeptics who avoid paid tools often form opinions from low-quality examples like summary bots or screenshoted mistakes.
  2. An experiment invites readers to submit real questions so Claude 4.6 Opus, a top paid-tier model, can answer them and readers can say if the responses are surprising. The model's first reply will be shown rather than cherry-picked.
  3. Readers are asked to ask medium-difficulty, practical questions instead of gotchas, and the model's settings were adjusted to favor web searches over memory to help reduce hallucinations.

Open Hidden Open Thread 423.5

Astral Codex Ten ā€¢ 4129 implied HN points ā€¢ 04 Mar 26
šŸ•¹ Technology AI Defense Ethics Policy Security Privacy
  1. A Wednesday open thread thatā€™s usually for paid subscribers was made public so more people can talk about current events.
  2. The situation between OpenAI and the Pentagon has changed recently because of developments in a new contract.
  3. A LessWrong analysis flags potential loopholes in OpenAIā€™s surveillance language and argues the contract language should be clearer and stronger.

Links For February 2026

Astral Codex Ten ā€¢ 16656 implied HN points ā€¢ 05 Feb 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Hardware Policy Industry Research AI Machine Learning Safety
  1. AI is the central theme: there are active debates about alignment and safety, evidence of real failures (and fixes), messy regulatory and political fights, and updated timelines that push major capabilities a few years out.
  2. Medical research and drug trials suffer from perverse incentives and excess cost; experts propose government-funded "high-leverage" trials to test unpatentable or off-patent treatments, which could save public money and improve care.
  3. Tech, culture, and policy are in flux: public belief in ideas like the lab-leak theory is shifting, platform and influence-politics are shaping discourse, and surprising innovations and controversies keep popping up from urban transport to casting choices.

How Wall Street Ruined the Roomba and Then Blamed Lina Khan

BIG by Matt Stoller ā€¢ 50650 implied HN points ā€¢ 18 Dec 25
šŸ’¼ Business Corporate Governance Antitrust Technology Manufacturing Trade Wall Street Mergers
  1. Wall Streetā€™s short-term financial pressure pushed iRobot to cut R&D and offshore manufacturing, hollowing out its innovation and helping foreign firms capture its technology.
  2. Amazonā€™s attempted buyout was less about vacuums and more about building a vast IoT network that would concentrate data and surveillance power, raising real competition and privacy concerns.
  3. Antitrust enforcement is important but not sufficient; the economy also needs policies that reward long-term investment and onshoring instead of extracting outsized returns for financiers.

AI #158: The Department of War

Don't Worry About the Vase ā€¢ 2956 implied HN points ā€¢ 05 Mar 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Legal issues Artificial Intelligence National Security Corporate strategy Industry News
  1. A dangerous standoff between a frontier AI company and the Department of War blew up over contract language and trust, even though both sides broadly want similar limits on autonomous weapons and surveillance; a practical compromise (safety stacks plus guaranteed windā€‘down/transition periods) could have resolved it.
  2. The administrationā€™s threats (supplyā€‘chain labeling, talk of using the DPA) are likely legally weak but practically harmful, since extralegal pressure and politicization can cripple firms and chill governmentā€“industry cooperation before courts can act.
  3. Meanwhile the AI ecosystem keeps racing ahead ā€” model upgrades, Claudeā€™s rapid user surge, big funding moves, lawsuits, layoffs and alignment debates ā€” underscoring how fast capability, business incentives, and hard governance problems are colliding.

Is the Great AI meltdown imminent? [NSFW]

Marcus on AI ā€¢ 12370 implied HN points ā€¢ 05 Feb 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Funding Market risk Industry Trends Corporate Finance AI Semiconductors
  1. Nvidia appears to have cut back a promised $100 billion investment in OpenAI to roughly $20 billion. That reduction could leave OpenAI exposed because it burns many billions of dollars each year.
  2. The AI industry was propped up by circular financingā€”chipmakers funding AI firms that then buy their chipsā€”and those arrangements are now unraveling. If those deals fall apart, the market faces bubble-like risks similar to past tech booms.
  3. If marquee deals collapse and leading AI firms falter, the multitrillion-dollar expansion many expected might never materialize. Instead of accelerating, the industryā€™s growth could stall or shrink.

The Bear Cave #315

The Bear Cave ā€¢ 1492 implied HN points ā€¢ 01 Mar 26
šŸ’° Finance Market research Corporate Governance Short selling Activism Investing Equities Executive Changes
  1. Multiple activist and short-seller reports this week accuse several companies of overvaluation, accounting tricks, regulatory or safety issues, and overstated asset quality.
  2. A string of high-profile departures ā€” especially CFOs ā€” at smaller public companies suggests notable leadership turnover and potential instability in those businesses.
  3. The newsletter highlights a flurry of social media posts and screenshots, showing that tweets and public reports are driving market narratives and investor attention.

Basic Linear Algebra Subprogramming

arg min ā€¢ 178 implied HN points ā€¢ 29 Oct 24
šŸ•¹ Technology Mathematics Algorithms Data science Optimization Computing
  1. Understanding how optimization solvers work can save time and improve efficiency. Knowing a bit about the tools helps you avoid mistakes and make smarter choices.
  2. Nonlinear equations are harder to solve than linear ones, and methods like Newton's help us get approximate solutions. Iteratively solving these systems is key to finding optimal results in optimization problems.
  3. The speed and efficiency of solving linear systems can greatly affect computational performance. Organizing your model in a smart way can lead to significant time savings during optimization.

What Happened With Bio Anchors?

Astral Codex Ten ā€¢ 12044 implied HN points ā€¢ 12 Feb 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Tech Policy Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Compute Forecasting
  1. A compute-centered forecasting approach correctly captured that AI progress has largely tracked available compute and scaling laws, which explains much of the recent boom.
  2. The main error was underestimating algorithmic progress and effective compute growth (including longer training runs and test-time compute), so systems became far more powerful each year than the model assumed and pushed timelines much earlier.
  3. Forecasts are still useful but hinge on a few sensitive parameters, so you need proper sensitivity analysis and humility ā€” uncertainty can cut both ways and make outcomes riskier than naive skepticism assumes.

Sam Altman and the day Nvidiaā€™s meteoric rise came to an end

Marcus on AI ā€¢ 12173 implied HN points ā€¢ 04 Feb 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Cloud Computing Startups Venture Capital Tech Stocks AI Semiconductors
  1. OpenAI presented GPT-5 as AGI-capable, but the release showed it wasnā€™t and that claim undermined confidence in promises of imminent AGI.
  2. Belief that scaling alone would create AGI helped drive Nvidia and GPU stocks skyward, but after the GPT-5 disappointment those stocks have stalled, showing the ascent has lost steam.
  3. Investors are rotating out of hyped LLM plays as models prove expensive, unreliable, and commoditized, which means smaller profits and price wars but also creates space for newcomers and new AI approaches.

Some disconcerting facts about AI and banking that may have profound consequences

Marcus on AI ā€¢ 9406 implied HN points ā€¢ 10 Feb 26
šŸ’° Finance Banking Systemic Risk Corporate Finance Tech investment Capital Markets Debt Markets
  1. Generative AI is expensive and often unreliable, so many big corporate investments are not delivering the expected returns.
  2. Banks and lenders are financing a massive AI and data-center buildout, creating large debt exposure that could spill over into broader financial stress if those investments sour.
  3. The current LLM-focused approach probably wonā€™t produce the promised productivity gains, meaning economic and social pain is likely until more reliable forms of AI are developed.

What's new in Svelte: November 2024

The (Unofficial) Svelte JS Newsletter ā€¢ 19 implied HN points ā€¢ 01 Nov 24
šŸ•¹ Technology Software Development Libraries Community Frameworks
  1. Svelte 5 has been released with new features making coding easier. This includes helpful additions like snippets for filling slots and new DOM properties.
  2. The Svelte community is active with a hackathon called SvelteHack 2024, encouraging developers to create new projects for prizes.
  3. There are many new libraries and tools for Svelte that help build apps more effectively. These resources can boost efficiency and creativity in projects.

ā€˜We Were Wrongā€™

Magic + Loss ā€¢ 159 implied HN points ā€¢ 29 Oct 24
šŸ•¹ Technology Media AI Nostalgia Culture Internet
  1. WIRED's first website, HotWired, launched the digital age by covering topics that traditional media missed. It helped introduce many people to the online world.
  2. The internet has evolved into a chaotic space filled with dangers like misinformation, cybercrime, and trolls. This raises the question of whether it was handled well from the start.
  3. Even though WIRED helped shape the internet, it recognizes its role in the problems that have emerged over the years and reflects on how things might have been different.

Whatā€™s up Python? d-strings, SSE in Pydantic and... a new Python?

Bite code! ā€¢ 1834 implied HN points ā€¢ 10 Mar 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Frameworks Programming Programming Languages AI Web Development Developer Tools
  1. Pydantic released Monty, a Rust-based, sandboxed Python VM with ultra-fast startup, pause/resume and snapshotting, and strict resource limits to enable safer, faster AI workflows and embedded scripting.
  2. PEP 821 proposes d-strings: a dedented multiline string literal that automatically strips indentation and makes writing multi-line text much easier.
  3. Python tooling is evolving: FastAPI now supports Server-Sent Events for simple one-way realtime updates. Typing PEPs like 764 (inline TypedDicts) and 747 (annotating type forms) make dict typing and type-accepting functions more concise.

Should US homebuilders emulate Sweden?

Construction Physics ā€¢ 28185 implied HN points ā€¢ 01 Jan 26
šŸ’¼ Business Energy Construction Housing Manufacturing Real Estate Productivity Costs
  1. Sweden has widely adopted prefabricated housing, but the observable data donā€™t show clear productivity gains or lower costs for single-family homes compared with the US.
  2. New Swedish homes cost substantially more per square foot than US homes, and higher energy-efficiency and construction standards partly explain that premium, so prefab hasnā€™t obviously made them cheaper.
  3. Factory-built methods do offer benefits like better quality control, faster delivery, and predictable pricing, and they may be more promising for multifamily projects, but the cost and productivity advantages there remain uncertain.

America must embrace the Electric Age, or fall behind

Noahpinion ā€¢ 26823 implied HN points ā€¢ 09 Jan 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Manufacturing Defense Supply Chains Infrastructure Transportation Industrial Policy Energy
  1. The Electric Tech Stackā€”lithiumā€‘ion batteries, rareā€‘earth motors, power electronics, and solarā€”is making electricity replace combustion across cars, drones, robots, and many other products.
  2. China is scaling up mass production of these technologies while U.S. politics and weak infrastructure (like charging and battery plants) are holding America back.
  3. Mastering the electric stack is vital for economic and national security because batteries and power electronics underlie AI, data centers, drones, and defense; the U.S. must make it easier to build and scale highā€‘tech manufacturing.

AI Links, 3/8/2026

In My Tribe ā€¢ 273 implied HN points ā€¢ 08 Mar 26
šŸ•¹ Technology AI Policy Social media Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Defense Tech Software
  1. Agents make execution cheap, so instead of agonizing over one design choice you can have the agent explore multiple options; you must be explicit about success criteria and let the agent check its own work.
  2. Business contracts alone wonā€™t stop government misuse of AI; durable solutions require oversight and legislation so institutions, not companies, set and enforce the rules.
  3. AI language models tend to give more accurate, evidence-based answers than much social media content, so they could reshape public opinion; meanwhile AI keeps surprising us, so claims about its limits can quickly become outdated.

Two Faces of Modernity

News from Uncibal ā€¢ 656 implied HN points ā€¢ 24 Oct 24
šŸ“– Philosophy Modernity Human experience Society Government Enlightenment
  1. Modernity has both helped and hurt humanity. While it has brought material improvements like electricity and medicine, it has also led to government systems that might control every aspect of our lives.
  2. The problems we face today, like economic issues and government overreach, are partly a result of modern ideas from the Enlightenment. Simply going back to those ideas won't solve our problems.
  3. Many debates today focus on how the state should act in the world, often pushing for more government control instead of less. We may need a new way of thinking that goes beyond modernity to find real solutions.

It's all a blur

lcamtufā€™s thing ā€¢ 11631 implied HN points ā€¢ 06 Feb 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Compression Signal Processing Privacy Security Algorithms Computer Vision Image Processing
  1. Averaging-based blurs are linear and often reversible, so knowing the filter and padding lets you set up simple equations to recover original pixels.
  2. A right-aligned moving average makes iterative reconstruction straightforward and can reveal fine detail even with large blur windows, though 8-bit quantization adds visible noise.
  3. Two-pass (X then Y) blurs can still be inverted if the filter biases the current pixel, and recovered images can survive normal lossy formats like JPEG unless compression is very heavy.

AI bot swarms threaten to undermine democracy

Marcus on AI ā€¢ 15690 implied HN points ā€¢ 23 Jan 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Misinformation Social media Platform Governance Security AI Digital Policy
  1. AI-powered bot swarms can pretend to be real communities and manufacture the appearance of majority opinion, which destroys the independence of voices that democracy depends on.
  2. Traditional takedowns and copy-detection are too slow and brittle; we need proactive technical defenses like continuous network-behavior monitoring and agent-based stress tests to detect and prepare for coordinated attacks.
  3. Policy and institutional fixes can change the economics of manipulation: require privacy-preserving proof-of-human credentials for high-reach interactions, guarantee researcher access to platform data, and build independent observatories so faking a crowd becomes costly and easily detected.

Goldman Sachs Thinks We Will Have A Decade-Long Bear Market ā€” I Disagree With Them

The Pomp Letter ā€¢ 839 implied HN points ā€¢ 22 Oct 24
šŸ’° Finance Economic Policy Predictions Investments Market Trends Debt Management
  1. Goldman Sachs predicts a long bear market for the next decade, but some believe we're actually in a bull market. Data suggests stocks could do well in the near future.
  2. The U.S. is facing a significant increase in national debt, which affects the economy. This surge in debt could lead to currency devaluation.
  3. Long-term, the impact of currency debasement will overshadow other economic factors, like stock valuations. Itā€™s important to stay aware of these financial trends.

Singapore: Where your home loses value & everyone's better off

The Novelleist ā€¢ 532 implied HN points ā€¢ 05 Mar 26
šŸŒ International Social Welfare Taxation Public Finance Housing policy Urban planning
  1. The government owns most land and sells only time-limited leases, so homes lose value as leases run down and eventually revert to the state, making housing a place to live rather than a long-term investment.
  2. Control over leases and planned lease expirations lets the state auction land to developers, capture value through fees, and master-plan redevelopment on a 40ā€“50 year horizon to increase density and modernize the city.
  3. Revenues from land leases and sovereign-wealth investments fund low taxes and broad social servicesā€”universal healthcare, subsidized education, CPF pensions, and near-universal affordable housingā€”helping deliver high living standards and strong economic performance.

The Sequence Radar #828: NVIDIAā€™s GTM Releases, Bezosā€™s $100B Bet, Xiaomiā€™s Ambush, and the Fracturing of OpenAI

TheSequence ā€¢ 259 implied HN points ā€¢ 22 Mar 26
šŸ•¹ Technology Investment Software Cloud Robotics Enterprise Research AI Hardware
  1. NVIDIA is no longer just a chip maker ā€” itā€™s building fullā€‘stack agentic software and infrastructure like Dynamo, NemoClaw, and an Agent Toolkit to be the orchestration layer for enterprise AI.
  2. Xiaomiā€™s MiMoā€‘V2ā€‘Pro is a surprise frontier model: a 1ā€‘trillionā€‘parameter, 1ā€‘millionā€‘token system tuned for action and physical integration that rivals top Western models at much lower inference cost.
  3. AI is moving into the physical world and driving huge bets and tensions ā€” Jeff Bezos is mobilizing roughly $100B to AIā€‘transform manufacturing, while compute scarcity is straining deals and partnerships such as between Microsoft and OpenAI.

The Fed's Secret Confession: The Beige Book Reveals a Troubling US Economy

COVID Reason ā€¢ 436 implied HN points ā€¢ 25 Oct 24
šŸ’° Finance Market Analysis Central Banks Consumer behavior Global Economy Economic Trends
  1. The recent Beige Book shows that the U.S. economy is actually slowing down, not improving. Many regions reported economic decline, especially in manufacturing.
  2. There are rising concerns about job security and consumer spending. People are cutting back on spending due to financial worries and many companies are freezing hiring.
  3. Global economic issues are also affecting the U.S. market. Weak demand for products and looming recession signals are worrying for businesses and consumers alike.