The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

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Housing Snapshot

Daily Chartbook • 1048 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
đź’° Finance Housing Market Mortgage Rates Housing Affordability
  1. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has increased for 4 weeks in a row, reaching 6.94%.
  2. Mortgage delinquencies rose for the second straight quarter across all product types, with an increase in new loans entering delinquency.
  3. Nearly 40% of US homes do not have a mortgage, showing a substantial portion of homeowners are mortgage-free.

Preston North End Finances 2022/23

The Swiss Ramble • 157 implied HN points • 23 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Sports
  1. Preston North End's financial results for 2022/23 show progress with a reduced pre-tax loss and increased revenue.
  2. The club managed to increase revenue from all streams, especially from match day earnings.
  3. Preston North End kept expenses in check by reducing wages and player amortisation, despite overall revenue growth.

Every Jobs Report In 2025 Has Been Revised Lower

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 10 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics Labor Market Monetary Policy Economic data Central Bank
  1. Every month of 2025 has been revised lower, often sharply, which undermines confidence in the official payroll numbers.
  2. Much of the reported job growth relies on the BLS birth/death adjustment rather than actual payroll gains, so headline positives look artificial once the baseline is considered.
  3. The household survey and broader indicators show mixed signals and structural weakness—lower labor force participation, sector softness, and shifts between full‑time and part‑time work—implying the economy is weaker than the headline jobs figures suggest.
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Wage Hikes in April Fail Their First Test

Japan Economy Watch • 299 implied HN points • 07 Jun 23
đź’° Finance Economy Monetary Policy Wages Inflation Consumption
  1. Wage hikes in April in Japan fell short of expectations, rising only by 1% instead of the predicted 2%, indicating a potential setback for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
  2. Real wages in Japan have been dropping for years, not just a temporary post-Covid issue, leading to reduced consumer spending and overall economic impact.
  3. The slow wage growth in Japan has implications on inflation rates, with the Bank of Japan waiting for a 3% nominal wage hike to consider monetary policy changes.

Financing the AI Boom 2

Net Interest • 14 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Private Equity Debt Markets M&A Corporate Finance Valuation
  1. Data centers are critical for AI and demand sites built for extreme power and cooling, with strong leasing demand and low customer churn.
  2. Building and running these centers is capital intensive, so companies use asset-backed bonds, large loans, and equity to raise billions and boost valuations.
  3. Investors can gain broad, leveraged exposure to the AI infrastructure boom by buying private equity owners of data centers instead of individual operators, letting them scale using other people’s money.

Top Links 649 Dollar overvaluation. Ethiopia's precarious economic reforms. Kashmir and panzootic threats.

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
đź’° Finance Economics Exchange rates Global Trade Market Trends Financial Policy
  1. The dollar is currently overvalued, which could have serious economic impacts. This means that the dollar's strength might not reflect the true value of the economy.
  2. Ethiopia is facing challenges with its economic reforms. These reforms are crucial for the country's future stability and growth.
  3. Kashmir is experiencing threats from panzootic diseases. This situation poses risks to both human health and local wildlife.

Two Of My Favorite Investments: Chris DeMuth

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Investing Markets Equities Hedge Funds Valuation Research
  1. Ask “what would this look like if it were easy?” to reframe problems and find elegant, high-leverage solutions instead of forcing effort and complexity.
  2. Look for smaller competitors with close comparables that show a clear path to closing the market-cap gap with larger incumbents; those situations can produce big, relatively straightforward gains.
  3. Using comps to visualize an easy outcome helps identify investments where scaling feels likely and the upside is easy to justify.

The Bear Cave #252

The Bear Cave • 419 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Investing Market Analysis Corporate Governance Economic Trends
  1. There are new reports about companies experiencing accounting issues and bad loans. It's important to pay attention to these signs as they could lead to financial trouble.
  2. Many executives are resigning from their positions, which could indicate instability within those companies. If a company keeps changing leadership, it might be a bad sign for its future.
  3. Short sellers are becoming more vocal, and there are discussions about plans that could affect companies negatively. Watching how these short sellers act can give clues about company health.

Housing Roundup #6

Don't Worry About the Vase • 1478 implied HN points • 20 Sep 23
đź’° Finance Housing
  1. The listings will continue until people can afford houses in places they want to live.
  2. Housing costs are rising, but homeownership rates have not drastically declined.
  3. Building more houses where people want to live is crucial for lowering housing costs and increasing supply.

The Fed's Repo Defensive: Part I

Concoda • 508 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy Market Analysis Economic Indicators Liquidity management
  1. The Fed's repo facility has been used for the first time by major market players during a tough financial period. This shows it can help keep rates in check, but there are still issues to address.
  2. Over the past few years, the Fed's approach to managing its balance sheet has led to unstable liquidity in money markets. This instability caused significant rate spikes and raised concerns about the overall health of the financial system.
  3. When money market rates soared unexpectedly, it prompted the Fed to step in as a major lender. This was a significant move to bring balance back to the financial markets and highlight the Fed's critical role in managing economic stability.

The Bear Cave #204

The Bear Cave • 1119 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Activist Reports Recent Resignations Tweets
  1. New activist reports revealed alleged financial manipulation by companies like Grifols and ethical lapses at DocGo.
  2. Multiple executive resignations were announced, including CFOs and CEOs from various companies.
  3. Notable tweets of the week were highlighted, showcasing discussions on regulatory actions and financial concerns.

Do emerging and frontier markets diversify?

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 03 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Investments Asset allocation Portfolio Theory Emerging Markets Risk management Global Markets
  1. Correlations between developed, emerging, and frontier markets rise as the investor’s time horizon lengthens, so diversification benefits shrink over longer horizons.
  2. Despite higher long-run correlations, optimal minimum-variance portfolios still hold a meaningful share of emerging and frontier markets—typically around 20% or more—even at the longest horizon tested.
  3. Typical investor allocations to emerging markets (around 10–15%) are likely lower than the allocation suggested by these optimal portfolios, implying many investors may be underinvested.

Economics Links

In My Tribe • 394 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Macroeconomics Interest Rates Consumption Inflation Government Policy Economic Theory
  1. Cato's wish list includes ideas for government reform, like raising Social Security retirement ages. Some of these suggestions might not be politically popular, but they show a push for change from a libertarian angle.
  2. There's a big difference in how academics and policymakers view the impact of interest rates on consumption. Academics think higher rates could boost future consumption, while policymakers see them as a negative for the economy.
  3. Scott Sumner highlights the issues with measuring inflation. He argues that inflation numbers are often confusing and imprecise, which also affects how we understand productivity changes.

Will You Get to Retire Before The World Ends and Humanity Goes Dark?

OK Doomer • 161 implied HN points • 27 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Retirement Investing Savings Economics Wealth Management
  1. Many people have a dream of retiring comfortably, similar to how grandma lived her later years, but it's important to recognize that this might not be the reality for most of us.
  2. The financial industry promotes the idea of an easy retirement, but many experts suggest that it's becoming increasingly unlikely for people to achieve that goal.
  3. Being honest about retirement prospects is crucial, as it respects people's time and helps them prepare better for the reality of their financial futures.

Top Links 615 The great wealth avalanche. Chinese white-collar salary cuts. North Virginia, data centre capital of the world & My Beautiful Laundrette revisited.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25
đź’° Finance Economics Investment Markets Policy Wealth
  1. There is a significant shift in wealth distribution happening, which is often referred to as a wealth avalanche. This means that a lot of money is moving, impacting people's financial situations.
  2. In China, many white-collar workers are facing salary cuts, which can be tough for them and the economy. This situation can lead to broader economic effects.
  3. North Virginia has become a key hub for data centers, showing how technology and data management are growing in importance. This shift highlights the changing job market and investment opportunities.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 31 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Real Estate Home Prices Housing Market Economic Indicators Regional Trends
  1. Freddie Mac’s national house price index rose 1.0% year‑over‑year in November, but that is a new cycle low and monthly gains are very small, so overall growth is slowing and could turn negative sometime in 2026.
  2. Nineteen states and D.C. remain below their prior price peaks and many cities have large drops — Punta Gorda is down about 21% from its recent peak and Austin is down over 17%.
  3. Rising inventory and weak sales are reducing upward price pressure, and Freddie Mac and NAR data suggest other indexes like Case‑Shiller will likely show a similar slowdown.

Australia's coming housing bust

Asian Century Stocks • 275 implied HN points • 11 Oct 23
đź’° Finance Housing Market Interest Rates Economic Impact Market Trends
  1. Australia's housing market has experienced a long boom driven by various factors like low interest rates, commodity exports, and immigration.
  2. The affordability of Australian properties is a concern with high housing market values, low rental yields, and high household debt compared to income.
  3. Rising interest rates, declining job market, and decreasing migration from mainland China could lead to a potential housing market slump in Australia.

Another Step in my Mortgage Radicalization

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 147 implied HN points • 11 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Investment Analysis Financial Crisis
  1. The mortgage crackdown played a big role in causing the Great Recession. It disrupted the housing market and led to a lot of financial trouble.
  2. Historical patterns show that residential investment usually rises after the yield curve un-inverts, but that didn't happen in the late 2000s. Instead, investment remained low in 2025, unlike previous cycles.
  3. Today, the housing market is influenced by a complicated mix of factors, including high interest rates and potential recession signals. This could impact how homes are built and sold in the future.

Bear market or bull market? For Bitcoin it can be hard to tell.

Ecoinometrics • 275 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
đź’° Finance Bitcoin Inflation Housing Market Financial Systems Economic Trends
  1. It's difficult to determine if Bitcoin or Ethereum are in a bear or bull market by just looking at monthly returns.
  2. Countries with high inflation rates might benefit from transitioning to crypto-based monetary systems.
  3. There are signs indicating a potential crash in the US housing market due to factors like artificially inflated prices and high mortgage rates.

The lies we tell ourselves

Known Unknowns • 275 implied HN points • 03 Apr 23
đź’° Finance Economy Policy Banking Investments Regulations
  1. Interest rates may not return to normal, so be cautious. Collective DC plans might not be as ideal as they seem.
  2. Don't expect a recession to automatically solve inflation issues; it may not work as expected.
  3. Inflation brings uncertainty, making high real yields essential, and planning for Social Security reforms could involve risky collective DC plans.