The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

The Best Investing Advice

The Generalist • 760 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Venture Capital Market Analysis Decision-making
  1. Investing is all about finding great companies, not just good deals. Focus on what makes a company truly outstanding.
  2. Diversify not just across different industries, but also over time. Don't rush into investments; think long-term and consider market changes.
  3. Startups should offer something unique that stands out. Instead of competing with existing options, create a choice that reshapes the conversation.

Robinhood’s Smile

Net Interest • 12 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Financial Services
  1. Robinhood changed the investing game by making it easy and fun, allowing people to trade with no fees. They even added features like free stock for completing tasks to keep users engaged.
  2. After a boom during the meme-stock craze, Robinhood faced challenges as the market dropped, causing many users to lose money and stop trading. Despite this, they found a new way to earn money through higher interest rates.
  3. Now, Robinhood is at a point where they need to decide their future. They can keep focusing on trading like a game or expand into a wider range of financial services.

Top Links 610 China's procyclical fiscal. Whole Foods v. Trader Joe's. Pakistan's surprise rally & chess dominance.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Investing Market Trends Fiscal policy Consumer behavior
  1. China's fiscal policy has become procyclical, which means it is tightening when the economy needs support. This could actively hinder economic recovery in challenging times.
  2. Whole Foods and Trader Joe's represent contrasting business models, with Whole Foods focusing on premium offerings and Trader Joe's emphasizing value and unique products. This highlights different consumer preferences in grocery shopping.
  3. Pakistan experienced an unexpected rally, demonstrating resilience in its economy, alongside notable achievements in chess. This showcases the potential for growth and excellence in different fields, even in difficult circumstances.

Lula Hoops

Doomberg • 5190 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
💰 Finance Currency Investments Global Economy Central Banking
  1. Gold prices have been rising significantly and outperforming the S&P 500 lately, reaching all-time highs in many currencies.
  2. There's speculation that central banks are accumulating gold as they explore options for a new currency to compete with the US dollar, particularly involving a potential BRICS currency backed by gold.
  3. At the recent BRICS summit, there were concerns that Brazil's president might not fully support efforts to move away from the US dollar, which could impact the success of this new currency initiative.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Sales trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. Existing-home sales have decreased to 4.08 million in January, which is a drop of 4.9% from the previous month, but it's still a 2.0% increase compared to January 2024.
  2. The housing inventory is rising, reaching 1.18 million units, up 16.8% from last year, which shows there is more supply available than before the pandemic.
  3. Despite the drop in sales, this is the fourth consecutive month with year-over-year increases, suggesting some positive trends in the market.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Problems at The Wall Street Journal

The Bear Cave • 1399 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Stock Trading Consumer Advocacy
  1. There's concern about trading actions linked to Wall Street Journal stories. In one case, a trader made a lot of money by buying stocks right before a negative article was published.
  2. The Wall Street Journal may not have fully disclosed important information about sources in its articles. This raises questions about transparency and ethics in their reporting.
  3. Some journalists at the Wall Street Journal have connections to the companies they write about. This could lead to conflicts of interest that affect the trustworthiness of their reporting.

Higher bank capital requirements work

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Banking Regulations Capital Economic Growth Risk management
  1. Banks now have to keep more money in reserve, which helps prevent risky behavior and protects the economy. This rule came after the 2008 financial crisis.
  2. Even though higher capital requirements may lower banks' profits, they do not slow down overall economic growth. The economy remains stable without large drops in growth.
  3. Overall, increased capital requirements reduce the chances of serious economic downturns, which is a big win for financial stability. It seems like this regulation is working well.

Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Economics Federal Reserve Housing Market
  1. The current monetary policy is not tight enough to be called restrictive. This means people can still borrow money relatively easily.
  2. Tom Lawler has discussed the 'Neutral' rate of interest a lot. Understanding this rate helps us know how the economy might react to changes in interest rates.
  3. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell suggest that the interest rate environment is still being evaluated, which could affect future economic policies.

Top Links 588 The looming oil glut of 2025. The railroad on the wrong side of Trump's tariff plans. The Christmas tree disaster in N Carolina.

Chartbook • 500 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
💰 Finance Tariffs Economic Forecast Energy Policy Global Trade
  1. There might be a big oversupply of oil by 2025. This is because OPEC+ is having trouble managing production limits.
  2. Some railroads are struggling due to tariffs from Trump. This could impact their business in the long run.
  3. North Carolina is facing a disaster with its Christmas tree production. This situation could affect both local farmers and holiday traditions.

The Transcript Editor's Commentary

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Market Analysis Economic Trends
  1. The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates but is now signaling that they may not do it quickly again. This can be seen as a bit disappointing for the markets.
  2. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, mentioned they are not in a hurry to make more rate cuts. This message is important for those watching the economy.
  3. Overall, it seems the Fed wants to stay cautious and not rush decisions that could impact the market.

CBW Accuses FDIC Of Racial, Gender Discrimination; Trade Groups Support Bank’s Seventh Amendment Claim

Fintech Business Weekly • 89 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25
💰 Finance Banking Investment Regulation Economics Legal issues
  1. CBW is accusing the FDIC of racial and gender discrimination in their handling of a significant penalty against the bank. They argue that their leadership has faced bias because of their backgrounds.
  2. A grand jury is investigating the situation surrounding Synapse Financial Technologies, and former employees are being subpoenaed for documents related to potential misconduct.
  3. Patriot Bank is under scrutiny from regulators and has been designated as 'troubled', which means it has to make major changes to its operations and compliance practices.

The Bear Cave #252

The Bear Cave • 419 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Corporate Governance Economic Trends
  1. There are new reports about companies experiencing accounting issues and bad loans. It's important to pay attention to these signs as they could lead to financial trouble.
  2. Many executives are resigning from their positions, which could indicate instability within those companies. If a company keeps changing leadership, it might be a bad sign for its future.
  3. Short sellers are becoming more vocal, and there are discussions about plans that could affect companies negatively. Watching how these short sellers act can give clues about company health.

Top Links 603 How BATMMAAN stocks rule. Global coal keeps on rising & the US builds its first heavy ice breaker in half a century.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Global Economy Investment Trends
  1. There are now 8 stocks in America that are worth over $1 trillion, often called the BATMMAAN stocks. These companies are very influential in the market.
  2. Global coal production is increasing, which shows that the demand for coal is still strong despite environmental concerns.
  3. The U.S. is building its first heavy icebreaker in 50 years. This is significant as it enhances the country's capabilities in Arctic waters.

The Fed Has Stopped Pretending that Price Inflation Is Going Away

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Economics Government spending
  1. The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates, claiming confidence in lower inflation, but that confidence seems to have faded. The Fed is now uncertain about its inflation goals.
  2. Inflation remains high, especially for everyday necessities like food and housing, causing consumers to struggle with rising costs. Recent data shows that inflation is not improving as expected.
  3. Instead of lowering interest rates, which may not help ordinary people, the Fed should step back and allow the market to adjust naturally. This could help stabilize the economy and provide better opportunities for regular investors.

Notes on the Macro-Finance Sitch for 2025-01-13 Mo

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 184 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Labor Market Interest Rates
  1. The U.S. labor market is still strong, showing no signs of cooling off. Recently, 256,000 new jobs were added, which is much more than expected.
  2. Inflation in the U.S. hasn't exceeded the Federal Reserve's target since mid-2022, but there's concern it could rise again. The Fed needs to make sure its policies stay neutral to keep inflation in check.
  3. There are worries that the current financial market is overly optimistic. If the expectations for market growth don't pan out, it could lead to a serious economic downturn.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Trends Economic Analysis
  1. The report looks at various local housing markets across the US for January. It compares this year's data with data from January 2019.
  2. The analysis includes information about active listings, new listings, and closed sales in these markets.
  3. The newsletter encourages readers to subscribe for more detailed insights and data on the housing markets.

Not in a Hurry

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 07 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Investments Banking Market Trends Interest Rates
  1. The Federal Reserve is not rushing to cut interest rates anytime soon. They want to see more economic data before making any decisions.
  2. Many experts believe that the market may be expecting interest rate cuts too soon and that any drops in rates won't happen as fast as people think.
  3. Overall, the economy shows signs of strength with stable hiring and positive corporate earnings, making it unclear if rate cuts are actually needed right now.

Don't Sleep On Silver

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 31 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Commodities Market Trends Economic Analysis
  1. Silver is getting more attention from small investors because it's cheaper and offers good growth potential. Many see it as a practical investment to build wealth gradually.
  2. Recent market events, like the Silver Squeeze of 2021, have highlighted the influence of retail investors and could lead to a stronger focus on silver in future market shifts.
  3. The current high gold-to-silver ratio suggests that silver might be undervalued and ready for a price surge, especially as gold continues to rise. This could be a good time to invest in silver.

How Many Homes Do We Need?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 358 implied HN points • 01 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Policy Market Analysis
  1. There is a huge underestimation of the housing shortage in the U.S. Many professionals are saying we need less housing than we actually do.
  2. Current data shows there are about 15 million vacant homes, but many more are needed due to population growth. Estimates suggest a shortage of at least 15 to 20 million units.
  3. Building more homes can help lower rents and make housing more affordable, but there's a risk that new constructions may only be rented out at higher prices, especially if ownership becomes less accessible.

One Regulator

Points And Figures • 719 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
💰 Finance Regulation Innovation Cryptocurrency Market structure Bureaucracy
  1. The financial market regulation in the U.S. is complicated and outdated, with many agencies like the SEC and CFTC often conflicting with each other. This can lead to innovation being stifled.
  2. There are concerns that some regulators, like Gary Gensler, may be overly controlling and negatively impact innovative companies, especially in the emerging cryptocurrency space.
  3. Many believe that simplifying the regulatory structure to have one main regulator could boost competition and innovation, but achieving this change seems very challenging.

January 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update and Inflation

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing Inflation Economic Trends Market Analysis Real Estate
  1. Home prices changed in the past two decades, with different local and national factors affecting these trends. This means that while prices may rise overall, local conditions can vary greatly.
  2. Recent inflation numbers showed a slight increase, but it's unclear if this is just a temporary change or part of a longer trend. It's important to watch these numbers closely for a clearer picture.
  3. When looking at inflation data, excluding shelter costs gives a better understanding of general price trends, which have generally stayed close to the target rate over time.

Three reasons the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates soon

Noahpinion • 8647 implied HN points • 03 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economy Interest Rates Inflation Monetary Policy
  1. The U.S. economy is showing strong signs of a soft landing with low unemployment, surging job numbers, high employment rates, and accelerating wages.
  2. Inflation has fallen back to the 2% target, providing a remarkable macroeconomic achievement.
  3. Despite the strong economy, there is speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates soon due to reasons like accelerating productivity growth.

My Investing Philosophy

Spilled Coffee • 124 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Portfolio Management Personal Finance Retirement planning
  1. Reading investment books helped shape my investing strategy over time. It's important to learn from different sources and experiences.
  2. I consistently invest in an S&P 500 index fund every month. This approach has helped me stay focused on long-term growth without getting caught up in market fluctuations.
  3. Having a high conviction strategy means holding onto a few strong stocks instead of constantly buying and selling. Patience has often led to better investment outcomes for me.

Homeownership isn't that risky

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Investments Homeownership Economic Policy Market Trends
  1. Homeownership is often seen as risky, but this idea is misunderstood. Many homes don't actually lose value significantly over time, and the risks are often overstated.
  2. Lower-priced homes can be a good investment, especially for families with lower incomes. The rental income from these homes can outweigh the risks involved.
  3. The financial difficulties in the post-2008 housing market were largely driven by government policies, not the inherent risks of owning a home. For many, owning a home can still be a stable investment over time.

Investing Update: Why Are Investors Scared?

Spilled Coffee • 40 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Indicators Stock Analysis Risk Assessment
  1. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently bounced back, showing positive growth for 2025, with the S&P just shy of an all-time high. This is encouraging for investors looking for potential gains.
  2. Despite the positive market performance, more than 40% of stocks aren't above their 200-day average, indicating some underlying struggles. This is something to keep an eye on.
  3. A historical trend suggests that when the S&P 500 is up over 3% by Valentine's Day, it tends to finish the year strong. This year follows that pattern, creating optimism for many investors.

No, DOGE Checks Wouldn’t Cause Inflation

Economic Forces • 3 implied HN points • 27 Feb 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Government spending Public Policy
  1. Sending out DOGE checks is unlikely to cause inflation. It's because they would probably just raise the price level temporarily, not create ongoing inflation.
  2. The impact of these checks on the economy depends on how spending changes and whether the central bank keeps spending stable.
  3. Whether giving out DOGE checks is a good idea depends on how the saved money could be used instead, like paying off government debt or funding other programs.

Investing Update: A Rotation Is Underway

Spilled Coffee • 68 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Stock Performance Economic Trends Sentiment Analysis
  1. All major stock indexes ended the week down, showing a shift in market sentiment. This can indicate a possible change in the current bull market.
  2. Despite the recent downturn, some key stocks like Nvidia are bouncing back, and the overall market remains strong as the S&P 500 is near its all-time high.
  3. Historically, February is known for being a tough month for stock performance, especially after Valentine’s Day, which could be a concern for investors.

The Nuclear Narrative

The Last Bear Standing • 53 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Analysis Energy Policy
  1. Nuclear power is getting a lot of hype and some companies are seeing big stock gains. This is partly because there's a growing demand for energy from datacenters.
  2. However, the nuclear industry has been shrinking for many years, with no new large plants in development and existing plants facing high costs and old age.
  3. Even though small nuclear reactors are in the works, they won't be ready soon and are unlikely to be cheap or meet the growing energy needs.

Top Links 594 American consumers flipflop. Questioning the savings glut & the strain of too much scientific publishing.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 21 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economy Consumer behavior Savings Publishing Scientific research
  1. American consumers are uncertain about their spending and saving habits right now. It shows there's a lot of confusion about the economy.
  2. There's a discussion about whether there's too much focus on saving money in the economy. Some believe this could be a problem.
  3. The volume of scientific publishing is increasing, and this might be causing stress for researchers. It's important to find a balance in how much gets published.

How to Exit

The Generalist • 520 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Venture Capital Investing Market Trends Liquidity Regulations
  1. Exiting from investments is just as important as entering them. Investors need to remember that cashing out is a key part of the venture capital game.
  2. Secondary transactions are becoming more common and important. Investors must learn how to handle these types of deals to benefit from changing market conditions.
  3. Understanding when and how to sell in the secondary market is crucial. Knowing the right timing can help investors meet their targets and provide returns to their supporters.

Top Links 573 US bank failures. Gas-powered trucks. The Suriname debt crisis & the underground struggle in Colombia.

Chartbook • 500 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Banking Debt Economics Investments Policy
  1. There have been 573 bank failures in the US, which is a significant number. This may affect the economy and people's trust in banking.
  2. Gas-powered trucks are still widely used, indicating ongoing reliance on fossil fuels. This might have implications for environmental discussions and policies.
  3. The Suriname debt crisis and struggles in Colombia show that economic challenges are not only local but also global. These situations need attention and understanding from a broader perspective.

Top Links 583 Europe's disinflation is real. Elon Musk's state-like powers. Standing with crypto & Nigerian Japa.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics Investments Crypto Market Trends Regulations
  1. Europe is experiencing real disinflation, meaning prices are rising more slowly than before. This could impact the economy positively as inflation decreases.
  2. Elon Musk is being discussed for having almost state-like powers due to his influence and control in various sectors. This raises questions about the power of individual leaders in today’s world.
  3. There is a growing support for cryptocurrencies, particularly in Nigeria, where many people are looking for better opportunities, often referred to as 'Japa.' This highlights a trend of using crypto for economic mobility.

Top Links 586 Choices for the dollar. France's bond market humiliation. Federal payrolls and attacks on the Kosovo water works.

Chartbook • 343 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics Investing Market Trends Global Finance Public Policy
  1. The U.S. dollar has many different choices and options available, making it a complex topic.
  2. France recently faced difficulties in its bond market, which has caused concern.
  3. There have been notable occurrences involving federal payrolls and issues related to water services in Kosovo.

Top Links 574 Gold stumbles. How Trump cost Boeing $3 billion. The UK's bitcoin haul. Beak capitalism.

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 28 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economics Investments Market Trends Cryptocurrency Corporate News
  1. Gold prices are struggling and have not been performing well recently. This trend is something to watch in financial markets.
  2. Former President Trump had a significant impact on Boeing, costing the company around $3 billion. This shows how political decisions can affect big businesses.
  3. The UK has seen a notable increase in Bitcoin income, which highlights the growing interest in cryptocurrencies in the region.

N₂O: Revisiting the best Nuclear Investment Vehicle

Olshansky's Newsletter • 22 implied HN points • 09 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Trends ETFs
  1. Investing in nuclear ETFs can help broaden your exposure to the nuclear sector beyond just uranium. This diversification can be important for capturing growth in the industry.
  2. There are several ETFs available that focus on different aspects of the nuclear supply chain. It's good to compare their performances and see which aligns with your investment goals.
  3. Keep monitoring the performance and news related to nuclear investments, as the sector is rapidly evolving and may present new opportunities.

Top Links 592 The upside of inflation. Warhammer and the British economy & the Cesarean boom.

Chartbook • 271 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economics Inflation Business Market Trends Debt
  1. Inflation can have positive effects on the economy. It's important to understand how it can sometimes benefit different sectors.
  2. The Warhammer gaming franchise is linked to the British economy in interesting ways. It shows how cultural phenomena can impact financial trends.
  3. There has been a rise in the rate of Cesarean births, often referred to as a boom. This trend raises questions about healthcare practices and preferences.

Do you want to pay startup prices for public companies?

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Earnings Public Companies Venture Capital
  1. Palantir's stock has skyrocketed, making it the most expensive on the S&P 500. This raises questions about whether its high valuation is justified based on its earnings.
  2. The stock market is behaving irrationally, sometimes valuing companies like startups even when they are publicly traded and have slower growth forecasts.
  3. Investors should be careful with risky trades like shorting stocks because the market can stay irrational longer than you can handle.

Rent trends and multi-family construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 84 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis Investment Strategies Housing policy
  1. The rent trends in different cities show that Austin is currently performing the best among metro areas in Texas.
  2. When looking at rental prices, it's important to consider whether changes are due to short-term demand shifts or local supply issues.
  3. The Erdmann Housing Tracker provides insights into multi-family construction, which can help understanding the housing market better.

Top Links 568 Stock markets in the 2nd Trump Presidency. How emering markets emerged. Indian food inflation & the global wine glut.

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investments Inflation Economics Global Trade
  1. Stock markets might struggle to reach new highs during Trump's second term compared to his first term.
  2. Emerging markets have become more prominent in the global economy, showing their growth potential.
  3. Food inflation in India and oversupply in the wine market are significant trends affecting consumers today.