The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Portfolio Update and Performance Review

Modern Value Investing • 117 implied HN points • 01 Aug 23
💰 Finance Investing Portfolio Performance Interest Rates Market Analysis
  1. Portfolio is up 150% YTD, driven by investments in Meta Platforms and highly shorted stocks like Upstart and Opendoor.
  2. Author is getting more cautious due to rising inflation and interest rates, and has diversified investments.
  3. Author has built a 7% position in long-term treasuries as a partial hedge against market turmoil.

The Bear Cave #163

The Bear Cave • 816 implied HN points • 02 Apr 23
💰 Finance Reports Resignations Tweets
  1. New activist reports raised concerns about corrupt practices in pharmaceutical and financial companies
  2. Recent resignations of notable executives from various companies were disclosed
  3. The post also includes recommendations on what to read and tweets of the week related to financial topics

Prediction Markets Grow Up

Net Interest • 12 implied HN points • 05 Dec 25
💰 Finance Markets Exchanges Regulation Liquidity Trading Fintech Derivatives Startups
  1. Prediction markets have rapidly scaled up: millions of users, weekly volumes in the billions, and top traders winning large sums.
  2. Regulation has softened, with legal wins and exchange approvals letting platforms offer political and derivatives-style contracts and join mainstream financial debates.
  3. The main fight now is for liquidity and market design — firms are raising huge capital and competing to attract traders so these markets can run as smoothly and widely as stock exchanges.

FTC Alleges Dave Deceived Users On Tips, Instant Fees, Advance Amounts

Fintech Business Weekly • 193 implied HN points • 17 Nov 24
💰 Finance Consumer Finance Financial Regulations Banking Fintech
  1. The FTC has accused the fintech app Dave of misleading users about cash advances, fees, and subscription charges. They claimed many people were promised higher amounts than they could actually get and were not clearly informed about fees.
  2. The number of unbanked households in the U.S. has dropped to 4.2%, but there are still major differences across racial and ethnic groups. Black and Hispanic households remain much more likely to be unbanked than White households.
  3. During the Synapse bankruptcy, issues arose about how funds were managed and returned to users. A lot of users may face significant losses, and there’s a push for more transparency and accountability from banks involved.
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Is Japan’s Inflation Really At a 40-Year High?

Japan Economy Watch • 259 implied HN points • 21 Nov 22
💰 Finance Inflation Banking Economy Monetary Policy
  1. Japan's inflation trend is not accurately represented by the headline figure of a 40-year high, considering the measure used is specific and not reflective of overall inflation.
  2. Year-to-year comparisons of inflation can be misleading, especially for products with price volatility, potentially skewing the true underlying trend.
  3. The causes and implications of inflation must be carefully analyzed to determine the appropriate monetary policy response, balancing economic growth with the impact of higher interest rates.

Clouded Judgement 1.16.26 - Platform of Platforms

Clouded Judgement • 6 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
💰 Finance Valuation Public Markets Financial Metrics
  1. AI agents are becoming the new users of software, automating cross-system workflows and doing the connective work humans used to do between systems of record.
  2. Legacy, domain-specific SaaS products are often rigid and may struggle to deliver cross-system experiences, risking being reduced to simple CRUD data stores unless they build or capture the agent layer on top.
  3. Public SaaS benchmarks show a median EV/NTM revenue multiple of about 4.4x with much higher multiples for high-growth companies, and typical operating metrics like ~76% gross margin, ~108% net retention, and long CAC payback periods.

The Bear Cave #157

The Bear Cave • 863 implied HN points • 19 Feb 23
💰 Finance Activist Reports Recent Resignations Earnings Tweets Investigations
  1. New activist reports were published on companies like Etsy and Goosehead Insurance, highlighting issues like counterfeit goods and financial practices.
  2. Recent resignations of notable executives from companies like Bally's Corp and Rocket Companies Inc were disclosed, signaling leadership changes.
  3. Upcoming earnings to watch include reports from companies like Coinbase and Planet Fitness, with previous investigations uncovering various issues.

Fighting The Fed

Points And Figures • 426 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
💰 Finance Markets Investing Economics Trading Banking
  1. Interest rate futures, including SOFR and Fed Funds, are indicating market expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year.
  2. The author predicts that the Federal Reserve will not lower rates in 2024 due to concerns about inflation and unemployment.
  3. Considering predictions about the Fed and interest rates, strategies like buying real estate without waiting for lower rates, buying out-of-the-money puts, and playing butterfly spreads are suggested.

Banking-as-a-Service: Wrapped

Fintech Business Weekly • 475 implied HN points • 31 Dec 23
💰 Finance Fintech Compliance
  1. The banking-as-a-service industry faced challenges in 2023, such as issues with compliance and partnerships.
  2. There was increased regulatory scrutiny on BaaS entities, with concerns around misleading claims and high interest rates.
  3. Multiple BaaS-related scandals and legal actions occurred throughout the year, impacting various companies in the industry.

Links - 02/01/2024

Value Investing World • 58 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing
  1. Investors should prioritize targeting downside risk over focusing on potential returns.
  2. Treasury bills are considered to be the closest thing to a risk-less investment.
  3. Consider targeting risk rather than a desired rate of return when making investment decisions.

Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 24 Dec 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Home Prices Market Trends Macroeconomics Economic Indicators Mortgage Rates Regional Trends
  1. National house prices were mostly flat in 2025 with small year‑over‑year gains around 1–2%, so the outlook for 2026 is uncertain.
  2. Short‑term indicators (Case‑Shiller, Freddie Mac, NAR median) show only slight month‑to‑month gains and suggest year‑over‑year changes will likely stay in that small range or edge down in the near term.
  3. Supply and demand are the key drivers and there are big regional differences — areas with high inventory and rising months‑of‑supply could see local price declines even if the national average remains flat.

January Payroll Preview

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 58 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics Labor Market
  1. The pre-payrolls labor market data suggests a decrease in job switching affecting wage growth and unemployment rates.
  2. The 'Great Reallocation' from mid-2021 to mid-2022 has evolved into the 'Great Staycation,' impacting wage growth and labor market dynamics.
  3. There are concerns about demand and supply questions in the labor market, leading to a need for potential adjustments and revisions in strategies.

Why the market has really rallied following the Fed decision?

Global Markets Investor • 79 implied HN points • 14 Dec 23
💰 Finance Markets Federal Reserve Interest Rates Economic projections Inflation
  1. The market rallied significantly after the Federal Reserve made unexpected decisions, like not pushing back against expected interest rate cuts and adjusting interest rate forecasts significantly.
  2. Investors were surprised by the Fed's dovish shift towards easing and the embrace of soft landing strategies, which resulted in market excitement and continued rallies in stocks and bonds.
  3. While the market is currently optimistic due to the Fed's stance, there are warnings about potential overbought conditions and the need to watch out for sharp corrections.

Case-Shiller and Filtering

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Inflation Supply and Demand
  1. The Case-Shiller index, which tracks home prices, historically suggested a housing bubble. However, it may actually reflect a housing shortage rather than a bubble bursting.
  2. When adjusting home prices for inflation using rent instead of general CPI, the index shows that home prices are still significantly elevated due to high rents driving prices up.
  3. Today's housing market struggles with a lack of new homes, leading to increased prices for existing homes. This lack of building capacity has made it harder for younger generations to have the same homeownership opportunities as their grandparents.

The first rule of systemic solvency club...

The Jolly Contrarian • 159 implied HN points • 24 Mar 23
💰 Finance Banking Investing Capital Markets Financial Regulations Financial Instruments
  1. Bank runs often reflect lack of confidence, and denials of trouble can signal trouble.
  2. Tier 1 capital in banking is crucial for financial stability and ensuring debts are paid.
  3. Alternative tier 1 capital, like AT1, provides a buffer in crises but can behave like debt or equity, impacting investors differently.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 06 Nov 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Sales Data Regional Analysis
  1. In October, home sales were down 2.8% compared to last year, which shows a decrease from the previous month's 7.4% increase.
  2. New listings of homes increased by 3.4% year-over-year but are still lower than the activity seen in October 2019.
  3. The number of active homes available for sale rose significantly, with inventory up 21.4% from last year, but it varies by region.

CEO of DeepSeek's parent, High-Flyer Quant, spoke in 2020

Pekingnology • 143 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investment Quantitative AI Market Analysis Emerging Markets
  1. High-Flyer Quant uses AI for its investment strategies. They rely on advanced models and lots of data to predict stock prices and make trades.
  2. The Chinese stock market is seen as less efficient, which gives AI-driven strategies a chance to find opportunities that traditional investing might miss. This leads to potential higher returns for the right strategies.
  3. As more institutions enter the market, competition will increase. High-Flyer focuses on research and development to stay ahead in this tough environment.

Solana's Triangular Arbitrage Explored: A Case Study on Jito

Wisdom of DeFi by EigenPhi • 58 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Trading Blockchain DeFi
  1. On Solana blockchain, arbitrage transactions don't always rely on signals and bots execute transactions frequently
  2. Built-in computation might facilitate executing arbitrage in Solana
  3. Understanding intricacies of arbitrage on Solana can provide insights into the ecosystem and help in devising efficient trading strategies

The comeback of European growth stocks

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 28 Jan 26
💰 Finance Equities Fixed income Investing Asset allocation Macroeconomics Valuation
  1. European growth stocks are staging a comeback, with renewed investor interest in growth names across the region.
  2. Over shorter horizons of about one year, share prices are far more sensitive to changes in government bond yields than to earnings or valuation shifts.
  3. For near-term investors, movements in bond yields will often drive returns more than earnings improvements or valuation changes, so watching yields matters most.

Top Questions ahead of Battlefin’s Discovery Day Miami

The Data Score • 59 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
💰 Finance Investing AI Data Technology Economics
  1. The article highlights key questions for speakers at Battlefin's Discovery Day Miami, focusing on emerging technologies integration and data-driven insights in investment debates.
  2. The author tested ChatGPT for question generation, challenging its ability to create relevant and insightful questions for each panel session.
  3. The author compared their questions with ChatGPT's questions for each panel, reflecting on their differences and the strengths of human creativity against AI capabilities.

Inflation: Japan Stands Alone, Part II

Japan Economy Watch • 299 implied HN points • 08 Sep 22
💰 Finance Economy Inflation Interest Rates Currency Government Policy
  1. Bank of Japan faces a dilemma with interest rates and the yen due to the growing gap between Japan and other countries' interest rates.
  2. Japan's weak domestic demand and a very weak yen are impacting consumer spending and business investment negatively.
  3. There is uncertainty around whether speculators will force the Bank of Japan to raise 10-year bond rates above 0.25% in response to the weak yen.

Open Banking & Embedded Finance – Two sides of the same coin; Which technologies are shaping the future of fintech?; So what has the winning strategy for fintechs been over the last decade?;

Fintech Wrap Up • 58 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
💰 Finance Fintech Investments Technology Trends Market Analysis
  1. Open Banking and Embedded Finance are closely related concepts driving innovation in fintech through APIs.
  2. Key winning strategies for fintech success include starting with a unique product, scaling to improve cost efficiency, and expanding to offer multiple related products.
  3. Fintech investments globally saw a significant drop in 2023, but confidence started to return towards the end of the year.

Spilled Coffee Year In Review

Spilled Coffee • 8 implied HN points • 31 Dec 25
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Markets Portfolio Economy Housing Market Sentiment
  1. The newsletter grew sharply in 2025, expanding its global readership and earning mainstream recognition from major outlets and platform bestseller lists.
  2. The content was heavily investing-focused with a steady cadence of market updates, stock picks, charts, and sector analyses that tracked themes like housing, AI, and the Magnificent 7.
  3. Popular essays challenged common investing myths and emphasized simple, long-term thinking and making financial choices that reflect real-life priorities rather than just spreadsheet metrics.

How Would Fearmongers and Doomers Invest in The Stock Market?

OK Doomer • 151 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Policy Financial advice Wealth Management
  1. Many financial influencers spread fear about economic crashes but offer vague advice, like hoarding cash or buying during dips. It's not very helpful or specific.
  2. These influencers often blame the government for economic issues while ignoring their own role in creating panic. They don't really care about everyday people's financial well-being.
  3. Overall, the advice given is more about generating fear and attention rather than providing real, sound financial guidance. It’s like eating unhealthy protein bars instead of nutritious food.

Wall Street is waking up to the inflation problem, but is it enough to turn the trend around

Ecoinometrics • 58 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation Market conditions Federal Reserve
  1. Inflation, especially from the services sector, is not returning to pre-COVID levels.
  2. Financial markets are adjusting their expectations for rate cuts in 2024.
  3. Loose financial conditions may benefit Bitcoin and risk assets, but watch for potential reversals signaling a recession or inflation issues.

So-Fried

The Last Bear Standing • 72 implied HN points • 22 May 25
💰 Finance Banking Lending Accounting Investing Credit
  1. SoFi has changed from focusing on high-quality student loans to riskier personal loans and credit card consolidations. This shift has put the company in a tougher spot than before.
  2. The way SoFi accounts for its loans is unusual compared to other banks, which can create a false sense of financial strength. This method allows them to report higher earnings but exposes them to more risk.
  3. As a bank, SoFi must follow strict regulations that weren't a concern when they were just a tech company. If they don't manage their finances carefully, they could face serious consequences from regulators.

A Zomato 2022 Update: Price, Value and the Gap!

Musings on Markets • 399 implied HN points • 27 Jul 22
💰 Finance Stock Market Valuation Investing Economic Factors Company analysis
  1. Zomato's stock price was initially high after its IPO but has now dropped significantly due to a mix of poor earnings results and macroeconomic factors. This shows how momentum can affect stock prices.
  2. Despite the challenges, Zomato is still growing and has a strong market share in India's food delivery sector. They have a good amount of cash from their IPO to help them in tough times.
  3. The company is exploring new areas like grocery delivery, but it raises questions about their profitability and strategic focus. Investors need to keep an eye on what's next for Zomato.

21 Century Housing Summary, Missouri Edition

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Market Analysis Policy Impact
  1. Housing prices in Missouri increased from the late 1990s to mid-2000s, but not necessarily because of a bubble. Instead, they align more with normal price patterns over a long period.
  2. There was a lending boom that raised home prices, mostly due to easier access to credit. However, this did not lead to a big increase in homeownership in Missouri.
  3. After the market crash post-2008, home construction dropped significantly, causing a supply shortage which has kept rents and housing prices high, particularly in lower-tier markets.

Every Housing Down Cycle is "unhappy in its own way"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 24 Nov 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Analysis Investment Strategies Housing policy
  1. Every housing downturn has its own unique challenges. Just like unhappy families, each downturn has different reasons why it's tough.
  2. It's important to avoid comparing today's housing market with the past bubble and bust. The lending standards today are much stricter, making a big difference.
  3. Demographics play a big role in the housing market. Today, we're seeing a slower population growth compared to the early 80s, which affects house prices differently.

Depreciation explained

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 219 implied HN points • 30 Mar 23
💰 Finance Personal Finance Financial Education Investment Strategies Asset management
  1. Depreciation is when things lose their value over time, like cars and electronics. This impacts how much you could sell them for later.
  2. For businesses, depreciation helps account for the decrease in value of their assets, matching costs with how much money those assets help make over time.
  3. Knowing how quickly something depreciates can guide your buying decisions. Some items, like luxury goods, hold their value better than others.