The hottest Substack posts right now

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My Fake AI Problem

John’s Substack • 17 implied HN points • 05 Feb 26
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Video Platforms Social media Content Moderation Misinformation Synthetic media
  1. AI-generated fake videos can be so convincing that even people who know the subject well may be fooled.
  2. This is a widespread problem affecting many public figures, and platform enforcement struggles mean removing fakes often feels like a whack-a-mole effort.
  3. There may not be a clear solution yet, so everyone should stay alert and verify videos before trusting or sharing them.

Portfolio Review - January 2024

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 399 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
💰 Finance Valuation Investing Stocks Portfolios Earnings
  1. The newsletter discusses investing in NU Holdings as a new position due to its growth potential in Latin America.
  2. The author shares insights on adding to their Auto Partner position, seizing an opportunity when the stock price dropped.
  3. The author presents a buy list, highlighting Evolution and NU as stocks to watch and potentially add to the portfolio.

Notes on Google's Attempt at Self-Disruption

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 292 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
🕹 Technology Digital marketing Business Model Innovation Search AI
  1. Google is changing how it operates by using AI to summarize search results instead of just linking users to websites. This could reduce traffic to publishers who rely on clicks from Google.
  2. While fewer people might click on links due to AI summaries, Google claims that the advertisers are still willing to pay more for the remaining clicks, suggesting a shift in user intent and engagement.
  3. This big move to AI could be risky. If it works out, Google might dominate future online searches, but if it fails, they could end up with a lot of costly infrastructure without much to show for it.

Deep Research, information vs. insight, and the nature of science

Democratizing Automation • 775 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
🕹 Technology AI Science Research Innovation Computing
  1. AI will change how scientists work by speeding up research and helping with complex math and coding. This means scientists will need to ask the right questions to get the most out of these tools.
  2. While AI can process a lot of information quickly, it can't create real insights or make new discoveries on its own. It works best when used to make existing scientific progress faster.
  3. The rise of AI in science may change traditional practices and institutions. We need to rethink how research is done, especially how quickly new knowledge is produced compared to how long it takes to review that knowledge.
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AI's meaning-making problem.

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 119 implied HN points • 22 May 24
🕹 Technology Innovation AI Machine Learning Human factors Automation
  1. Humans can make meaning by assigning value to things, which is something AI cannot do. This includes deciding what's good or bad, worth doing, and how different things compare in value.
  2. AI systems depend on humans for meaning-making to produce useful outputs. When using AI, the skill of the user to interpret and edit outputs is essential for effectiveness.
  3. Understanding that meaning-making is a human ability helps in developing better AI systems. It shifts the focus from what AI can do to what humans do that AI cannot.

The Price of Risk: With Equity Risk Premiums, Caveat Emptor!

Musings on Markets • 759 implied HN points • 05 Aug 23
💰 Finance Equity Investing Risk management Market Analysis Corporate Finance
  1. Equity risk premium (ERP) is the extra return investors expect from risky investments compared to risk-free ones. Understanding this helps investors make better decisions about stocks.
  2. Different methods to measure ERP can give very different results. It's important to understand why and how these estimates change over time.
  3. Using a consistent and logical approach to estimating ERP is crucial for making informed investment choices. Each method has its pros and cons, and what works best may depend on your investment goals.

Last week at The Lunduke Journal (Oct 20 - Nov 2, 2024)

The Lunduke Journal of Technology • 1148 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Security Software Open Source Internet Programming
  1. There has been a lot of news recently about Linux and its relationship with Russia, especially regarding programming bans. This issue seems to be getting more complicated in the coming weeks.
  2. The Internet Archive is in the spotlight with some strange developments that are capturing attention. It's raising questions about how information is preserved online.
  3. RISC OS has made progress by adding modern features like WiFi and a web browser. It's nice to see tech advancements, even amid all the chaos in the software world.

The KQL Mysteries: Chapter 4

Rod’s Blog • 396 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Cybersecurity Data Analysis Cryptocurrency
  1. Jon and Sofia used KQL queries and tools like Microsoft Defender Threat Intelligence to track down threat actors behind a financial breach, targeting remote servers and the master wallet separately.
  2. Jon discovered malicious activities on servers using methods like port scanning and DNS spoofing, eventually finding a network of servers communicating over Tor.
  3. Sofia tracked cryptocurrency transactions and wallets, identifying techniques like CoinJoin and stealth addresses, and used tools like Chainalysis to follow the money trail.

Reflections on studying Large Language Models

Philosophy bear • 393 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
🕹 Technology AI Data science Cognitive Science Philosophy Machine Learning
  1. It's important to understand what Large Language Models (LLMs) can currently do and limit excessive philosophical concerns. Focusing on their real capabilities helps us appreciate their strengths and weaknesses better.
  2. Critics often overlook the achievements of LLMs, making broad claims without specific evidence of what these models can't do. A careful look at their limitations and abilities is needed for a fair assessment.
  3. When thinking about LLMs, we should be cautious about using complex concepts like 'thinking' or 'creativity.' It's better to focus on what these models can actually accomplish instead of getting caught up in vague definitions.

P2 Solo Alternatives (But Probably Not For You)

ASeq Newsletter • 21 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
🕹 Technology Genomics Biotechnology Instrumentation Sequencing Bioinformatics
  1. Several companies now offer compact, high‑throughput nanopore sequencers (Qitan Q‑P2, MGI CycloneSeq/G100‑ER, PolySeq X2, Meilitech), but most models are currently sold mainly in China or Russia and are hard to obtain elsewhere.
  2. MGI's CycloneSeq is the most likely near‑term global alternative, yet it faces legal/IP disputes, possible sales restrictions and tariffs, unclear pricing, and reports of lower data quality compared with established platforms.
  3. The growing number of competitors shows nanopore know‑how isn't exclusive to one company, so competing platforms will probably improve and become more widely available over time.

Under the microscope: Andretti Racing & NASCAR Heat (Saturn, PlayStation)

Rings of Saturn • 58 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
🕹 Technology Console gaming Reverse Engineering Video Games Game preservation Software Development
  1. Andretti Racing (Saturn and PlayStation) and NASCAR Heat (PlayStation) hide previously undocumented Easter eggs that are activated by entering special player names.
  2. Andretti Racing’s name cheats swap the normal pre-race portrait for hidden pictures — the Saturn build has eight images (including production staff, a family photo, and a cartoon alien) while the PlayStation build contains 33 mostly staff photos.
  3. NASCAR Heat recognizes eight specific aliases to add bonus drivers who are the development staff photoshopped into a DICE racing suit, and those drivers race in a special DICE-branded car.

Mixing Mental Arts

Polymathic Being • 56 implied HN points • 21 Dec 25
📖 Philosophy Mindfulness Virtue ethics Epistemology Agency Stoicism Mental models Practical philosophy
  1. Slowicism blends Stoicism and Taoism: tame your emotions with reframing and use Wu Wei, or intentional non-action, to stop automatic reactions.
  2. Slowing down and refusing to react to every outrage or piece of information clears space to think more deeply and prevents cascading bad outcomes.
  3. You need steady practice because these habits build flow, restore your agency, and create compounding improvements that make life calmer and more effective.

BOJ Stands Pat; Yen Weakens to ¥158; Inflation Substantially Below 2% Goal

Japan Economy Watch • 159 implied HN points • 27 Apr 24
💰 Finance Economic outlook Inflation Central Bank Interest Rates Currency Exchange
  1. Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced no new tightening measures, leading to yen weakening to ¥158/$
  2. Inflation in Japan has fallen substantially below the 2% goal, with core inflation hitting 1.4% in the past six months
  3. BOJ remains optimistic about reaching stable 2% inflation, emphasizing on a 'virtuous cycle' between wages and prices

Remote Site Growth Is Not A Conquest Game

Software Design: Tidy First? • 839 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Project management Software Design Remote work Collaboration Growth Strategy
  1. When growing a remote site, it's better to explore many projects at once rather than stick to just a few. This can help increase chances of success early on.
  2. Balancing between immediate growth and long-term profitability is key. Sometimes, a quick push in new projects can lead to bigger rewards down the line.
  3. Bringing in new talent to fresh projects can provide new ideas and perspectives. It's important to believe in their potential to contribute quickly.

Is the latest game subscription 'moral panic' justified?

The GameDiscoverCo newsletter • 373 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Gaming Subscriptions Market Trends Game Development Digital Platforms
  1. There is debate about whether the 'moral panic' around the latest game subscription services is justified.
  2. Subscription services like Game Pass are seen as gatekeeping and may impact the creation of creative first-party games.
  3. The market for games is evolving, with a mix of direct-to-market games, subscription services, and the importance of gamers owning their catalogs.

Why China might lead the Robot Revolution

Faster, Please! • 731 implied HN points • 04 Mar 25
🕹 Technology Robotics AI Manufacturing Automation Innovation
  1. China is likely to take the lead in humanoid robots because of its strong manufacturing skills. This makes it easier for them to produce these robots in large numbers.
  2. Humanoid robots could help fill job shortages in various industries like healthcare and logistics. As many people are retiring, robots might take on tasks that are hard to fill.
  3. While the US may not lead in making physical robots, it has a lot of smart technology for AI that powers these robots. The real competition will be between making the robots themselves and the technology that controls them.

The beautiful theory of TDD and the reality check of practice

Bite code! • 2568 implied HN points • 04 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Software Testing Programming Pragmatism Development Productivity
  1. TDD can make your code more flexible, reliable, and less error-prone by focusing on testing upfront.
  2. TDD may not work well for everyone, as it requires experience, ability to hold complex models in mind, and sustained focus.
  3. Not all projects are suited for TDD, and it's important to assess the cost and benefit of testing based on project needs and constraints.

How Bolt.new hit $40M ARR in 5 months

Kyle Poyar’s Growth Unhinged • 362 implied HN points • 09 Jul 25
💼 Business Growth Startups Marketing Product Development Entrepreneurship
  1. Bolt.new succeeded because it had the right technology at the right time, quickly building on improvements in AI. This allowed them to grow rapidly after initially struggling for years.
  2. They made their user experience simple and easy for anyone to use, which helped people feel excited about creating and sharing their projects. This lack of barriers led to more users trying their product.
  3. Their growth strategy revolves around users sharing their creations, which naturally attracts new users. They also focus on quickly releasing updates and new features, keeping excitement high among users.

This Chinese philosopher reformed politics in one generation

The Novelleist • 923 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
📖 Philosophy Political theory Social reform Chinese Philosophy Humanism Ethics
  1. Mòzǐ believed that political corruption in ancient China came from leaders acting in their own self-interest. He thought that if everyone cared about the community instead of just themselves, society would improve.
  2. He started a movement called 'inclusive care' that focused on helping others and making decisions for the benefit of all. This idea gained support among the middle class, leading to initiatives that helped the poor and promoted social welfare.
  3. Mòzǐ's efforts led to changes in government where more community-minded leaders emerged. His teachings inspired reforms that improved society, but ultimately Confucianism became the dominant philosophy in China.

Would Yen Intervention Succeed?

Japan Economy Watch • 179 implied HN points • 15 Apr 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates Intervention
  1. The effectiveness of yen intervention by the Ministry of Finance is uncertain, based on past attempts and the influence of interest rate gaps.
  2. The weakened yen might not necessarily be due to unwarranted speculation, but rather a reflection of long-term weakening of the Japanese economy.
  3. The Bank of Japan's actions, like increasing interest rates, could have a more significant impact on the yen's value than direct interventions by the Ministry of Finance.

Elite X Hype, Mediocre Financial Impact

Irrational Analysis • 159 implied HN points • 27 Apr 24
💰 Finance Investing Analysis Semiconductor Technology Stock Market
  1. Qualcomm's market share in laptop/PC is expected to grow from less than 0.1% to 5% by CY 2025.
  2. The stock price of Qualcomm may not show significant movement as the potential market share gains are likely already factored in.
  3. Qualcomm's gain in market share is predicted to come at the expense of Intel, which is already facing numerous challenges in their core business.

The “Sell America” Trade Isn’t A One-Off

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 23 Jan 26
💰 Finance Capital flows Investing Macro Bonds Monetary Policy Fiscal policy Global Finance
  1. Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries is weakening at the same time U.S. deficits are growing, driven by Japan’s rate normalization, higher European borrowing, and less Chinese dollar recycling. That mix points to a weaker dollar, higher long-term yields, and more reliance on policy support for the Treasury market.
  2. Geopolitical and trade shocks can quickly trigger a "Sell America" trade where stocks, Treasuries, and the dollar all fall together, because foreign holders can and will reprice political risk and divest U.S. assets. Even small divestments by big foreign investors signal that demand for Treasuries is a choice, not an automatic safe-haven.
  3. Because concentration risk in U.S. bonds is rising, investors should diversify into foreign stocks and bonds and consider physical gold for balance-sheet protection. The Fed's recent reserve-management purchases of T-bills show the market may be becoming increasingly dependent on central-bank support rather than organic global demand.

Revisiting 2025 Predictions

next big thing • 46 implied HN points • 24 Dec 25
🕹 Technology Startups Crypto Venture Capital Infrastructure Hardware Software AI
  1. Small, capital-efficient teams built AI-native products that scaled extremely quickly, creating many new businesses that reached tens of millions in revenue.
  2. AI shifted from being an assistant to a collaborator: code generation and app-building tools lowered the barrier to making software, but fully autonomous end-to-end AI workers still fell short of expectations.
  3. Markets and infrastructure tightened around AI — liquidity returned with major M&A and stronger exits, big tech earnings accelerated, and huge investments flowed into data centers and energy/cooling to support AI demand.

Economic Lessons from the Screwtape Letters

Kyla’s Newsletter • 451 implied HN points • 21 May 25
💼 Business Finance Market Trends Cultural analysis Economics Consumer behavior
  1. Rejection is becoming a part of everyday life, especially for young people. They face so many job and college applications but get very few chances.
  2. Convenience in our lives is making us feel less connected and more anxious. Things are so easy now that we don’t put in the effort to really enjoy or appreciate them.
  3. Surprise is disappearing in our culture, with new creative ideas being replaced by recycled ones. This loss makes our experiences less rich and fulfilling.

How My China Tech Beat Fell Apart

ChinaTalk • 993 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
🕹 Technology China tech Startup Culture Media Relations Cross-border Geopolitics
  1. Chinese tech startups are trying to hide their origins to avoid negative stigma in the West. Many founders worry that being labeled as 'Chinese' could hurt their chances of success.
  2. The relationship between Western reporters and Chinese tech entrepreneurs has changed dramatically due to rising geopolitical tensions. Once seen as exciting collaborators, many founders now feel cautious and distrustful.
  3. As regulations increased and opportunities within China shrank, many Chinese companies started to look for growth in international markets. This shift led to tensions between telling their stories and their need to downplay their roots.

💥One down, eleven to go...💥

PETITION • 334 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
💼 Business Retail Finance Bankruptcy Legal Consulting
  1. Recent bankruptcies in the corporate sector include companies like Humanigen Inc., Audacy Inc., and Eye Care Leaders.
  2. GOL Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes S.A. filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy in January 2024 due to financial struggles and liquidity issues.
  3. In Rite Aid's bankruptcy case, issues arise regarding store closures, conflicts over lease rejections, and negotiations with stakeholders.

Bank of England holds rates, but...

Off to Lunch • 334 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economy Interest Rates Business News Inflation Monetary Policy
  1. The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates at 5.25%, despite a split vote among committee members.
  2. Inflation is still high in the UK at 4%, above the Bank's 2% target, but recent data suggests a slowdown in the economy.
  3. The Bank's monetary policy report hints at inflation potentially dropping to 2% in the near future, but interest rates may not be cut until sustained evidence is seen.

Clouded Judgement 2.6.26 - Software Is Dead...Again...For Real this Time...Maybe?

Clouded Judgement • 18 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
💼 Business Investing SaaS AI Cloud Markets Valuation Technology
  1. Public software valuations have collapsed — the median NTM revenue multiple is about 3.6x and roughly 39% of the index trades below 3x, as investors reprice the sector amid much higher uncertainty.
  2. AI agents are poised to capture much of the new incremental value on top of systems of record, effectively pushing legacy cloud software down the stack into lower-growth middleware; a small minority (maybe ~10%) of incumbents may successfully capture the agent-driven S-curve.
  3. The market reaction may be overdone in the short term because many companies still show solid results and enterprise cloud migrations continue, but real operational problems (heavy SBC, long CAC paybacks) plus greater terminal risk justify a lower, more cautious multiple environment.

The Best of MRR Unlocked 2025

Startup Business Tips 🚀 • 43 implied HN points • 28 Dec 25
💼 Business Marketing SaaS Growth Product Startups Strategy Sales
  1. Build a strong GTM foundation before you scale: be clear on one primary ICP, your positioning, and your dominant go-to-market motion so growth is repeatable, not random.
  2. Continuously analyze and refine your ICP and messaging as your product and market evolve, and keep that messaging consistent across website, content, outbound, and demos.
  3. Use founder-led channels like LinkedIn intentionally so content compounds, and focus on one or two high-impact growth channels plus a simple, documented sales process to drive wins, retention, and expansion.

Power, Speed and Centralisation

The Commonplace • 824 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
📖 Philosophy Consumerism Technology Society Power Modernity
  1. We live in a fast-paced world where everything moves quickly, but it often leaves us feeling stressed and unfulfilled. Speed can make us feel busy without achieving true progress.
  2. The relentless push for speed and efficiency leads to a centralization of power and control. As technology advances, those who control the speed of communication gain more influence over our lives.
  3. Sometimes, it’s important to just stop and reflect. Taking a moment to slow down allows us to think critically about what we really want and question who benefits from our constant rush.

LFG (for semiconductors)

State of the Future • 47 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
💼 Business Semiconductors Startups Venture Capital Regional Markets Fundraising Manufacturing Hardware
  1. Semiconductors are the best area to invest right now because system-level innovations like chiplets, advanced packaging, and heterogeneous computing are creating new opportunities beyond Moore’s Law. These shifts make startup-driven hardware innovation more valuable than before.
  2. With the right funding and momentum, Europe could produce many semiconductor giants; the region has the talent and existing industrial strengths to support about 20 potential unicorns in the next 3–4 years. Keeping founders and capital in Europe is key to building that pipeline.
  3. Cloudberry VC is a dedicated European semiconductor fund offering early capital, industry partnerships, and hands-on support to help hardware founders focus on building instead of chasing grants or ill-suited investors. The fund connects startups to manufacturing and photonics partners to speed prototype-to-volume paths.

Under the microscope: Army Men: World War (PlayStation)

Rings of Saturn • 43 implied HN points • 01 Jan 26
🕹 Technology Reverse Engineering Retro Gaming Video Games
  1. The Army Men: World War games were rushed and repeatedly reused the same code, so the same cheat effects show up across multiple sequels.
  2. Two recurring cheats are a button-sequence "ANY MISSION" level select and a name-based "ECAEP" that grants invincibility after a restart, with some later titles adding an immediate INVINCIBLE menu code.
  3. Reverse engineering revealed exactly how the cheats work: button bitmasks, memory addresses, strncmp checks, and flag bitwise-ORs implement the detection and activation across games.

Adyen N.V. Investment Thesis

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 819 implied HN points • 14 Sep 23
💰 Finance Market Dynamics Competition Payment processing Investment Valuation
  1. Adyen's success is attributed to its ability to simplify complex payment processing challenges for businesses, nurturing customer relationships and offering tailored solutions.
  2. Adyen competes in a crowded payment processing landscape, facing challenges such as intense competition, commoditization of payments, and the need to differentiate through value-added services.
  3. Adyen is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing digital payment market and expand its reach by supporting emerging technologies and offering versatile payment solutions.

What Could Possibly Go Wrong with Sam Altman’s New Ambitions?

Marcus on AI • 2489 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
🕹 Technology AI Ethics Finance Risk Security
  1. Sam Altman's new ambitions involve projects with significant financial and technological implications, such as automating tasks by taking over user devices and seeking trillions of dollars to reshape the business of chips and AI.
  2. There are concerns about the potential consequences and risks of these ambitious projects, including security vulnerabilities, potential misuse of control over user devices, and the massive financial implications.
  3. The field of AI may not be mature enough to handle the challenges presented by these ambitious projects, and there are doubts about the feasibility, safety, and ethical implications of executing these plans.

Tech Tree Updates and Similar Projects

Atlas of Wonders and Monsters • 305 implied HN points • 28 Jul 25
🕹 Technology Tech History Data Visualization Community Building Web applications Innovation
  1. The Historical Tech Tree has gained popularity, attracting over 50,000 visitors, and is being actively improved with new features and technologies.
  2. Community engagement is key to the project's future, so a Discord server has been created for fans to connect and contribute.
  3. There are several other interesting tech history projects, highlighting a recent surge in visualizations and analyses of technology's evolution.