The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

3 Fund Portfolio

Market Sentiment • 452 implied HN points • 19 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Investing Asset allocation Bonds Index funds
  1. Successful investing comes down to diversification, low costs, and discipline.
  2. The 3-fund portfolio includes U.S. stocks, international stocks, and bonds to ensure balance and minimize risks.
  3. International diversification balances home country bias, while bonds provide stability during stock market downturns.

The Bitcoin ETF launch: not an orange wave but not a sell the news either

Ecoinometrics • 235 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Bitcoin ETFs Investment Crypto
  1. The impact of the Bitcoin ETF launch is not visible yet, but the potential is huge.
  2. Short-term outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust are currently offsetting any major effects of the ETF launch.
  3. Once the transition stabilizes, more investors like BlackRock and Fidelity may bring steady inflows with the ETFs, potentially opening up Bitcoin to a broader investor base.
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Top Links 777 Standout productivity. China bottoms out. AIDS deaths & the "Californian Ideology"

Chartbook • 257 implied HN points • 22 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Economics Investments Markets Policy Global Trade
  1. Standout productivity has been noted recently, showing impressive performance in various sectors.
  2. China's economy seems to have hit a low point, sparking discussions about its future trajectory.
  3. There are rising concerns over AIDS deaths, connected to the broader cultural ideas around the topic, often referred to as the 'Californian Ideology'.

Economic Errors

David Friedman’s Substack • 655 implied HN points • 28 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Economics Wealth Trade Investment Tariffs
  1. Wealth isn't just cash; it can be land, stocks, or buildings. A person's gain in wealth doesn't mean someone else has to lose money.
  2. When countries trade, it’s not just about wages. The value of currencies affects trade costs, and tariffs can disrupt these complex economic balances.
  3. People often hold on to incorrect economic beliefs because they sound easier or support their self-image. Understanding the real logic behind economics can be complicated but helps us see the true picture.

Is Aging Behind Japan’s Drop in Consumer Spending?

Japan Economy Watch • 339 implied HN points • 01 Dec 23
đź’° Finance Consumer spending Aging Income Savings Healthcare
  1. Aging is not the main reason for Japan's declining consumption, which is partly due to a decrease in the number of people and stagnant or falling income.
  2. Spending per capita dropped 1.3% from 2012 to 2022 despite an increase in GDP, indicating a complex mix of factors contributing to the decline.
  3. Economies of scale play a significant role in the spending habits of seniors, who end up spending about 7% more per person compared to younger households.

Trump Cards

Net Interest • 18 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Consumer Credit Credit Cards Banking Regulation Interest Rates Monetary Policy Financial history
  1. Credit card interest rates are much higher than on other loans, and revolving balances generate outsized profits for banks while supporting a large share of consumer spending.
  2. Proposals to cap rates (for example at 10%) would lower costs for borrowers but risk making card products unprofitable, which could reduce credit access and consumer spending.
  3. Past regulations have led lenders to reprice products and raise spreads, so caps or fee limits can trigger unintended shifts in rates, fees, or product availability.

High Power Microwave.

News Items • 216 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Economy Stock Market Consumer prices
  1. China's consumer prices fell sharply in January, causing concern for policymakers.
  2. Over $1 trillion in market value has been lost from Chinese and Hong Kong exchanges.
  3. China's economic prospects are grim, with property market struggles and a significant stock market decline.

One Regulator

Points And Figures • 719 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Regulation Innovation Cryptocurrency Market structure Bureaucracy
  1. The financial market regulation in the U.S. is complicated and outdated, with many agencies like the SEC and CFTC often conflicting with each other. This can lead to innovation being stifled.
  2. There are concerns that some regulators, like Gary Gensler, may be overly controlling and negatively impact innovative companies, especially in the emerging cryptocurrency space.
  3. Many believe that simplifying the regulatory structure to have one main regulator could boost competition and innovation, but achieving this change seems very challenging.

Lessons From Ed Thorp’s Interview With Tim Ferriss

moontower: a stoner dad explains options trading to his kids • 216 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Investing Society Wealth Personal Development
  1. Long-term investors should consider buying and holding equities, especially in the US, as they tend to outperform most other forms of investing.
  2. Minimize risks in investments to avoid significant losses that could take you out of the game altogether.
  3. Encourage independent thinking and questioning of information, rather than blindly following popular opinion, for better decision-making and personal growth.

Final Look at Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 02 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Housing Market Real Estate Sales Data Market Analysis
  1. Home sales are about 24% lower than pre-pandemic levels, showing a significant slowdown. This means people are buying fewer homes than before the pandemic started.
  2. The number of homes available for sale is increasing, which might lead to price drops in some areas later. More listings and higher inventory could mean better deals for buyers.
  3. Next month's sales might be steady due to lower mortgage rates, but comparisons to last year will be tricky because sales were already low. It's a mixed bag for the housing market ahead.

Did Wages Really Rise The Fastest In 28 Years?

Japan Economy Watch • 439 implied HN points • 09 Jul 23
đź’° Finance Wages Inflation Economic Theory Consumer spending
  1. Wages per hour, not per month, need to be examined to truly understand wage growth
  2. The data showing nominal wages growth doesn't necessarily reflect a true increase in pay, as it may be influenced by other factors like scheduled hours of work
  3. The focus on nominal wages by the Bank of Japan is aimed at achieving a specific inflation target, which may not fully account for the real impact on consumers

Infographics: Shadow Cash Trades & Flows

Concoda • 189 implied HN points • 27 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Markets Investing Trading Economic Trends Financial Data
  1. The infographic shows how 'shadow cash' trades and flows are organized. This helps to understand hidden financial movements.
  2. Mapping these trades can reveal patterns similar to bonds, which is important for investors to know.
  3. Understanding shadow cash can help people make informed decisions about their investments and see the bigger picture in finance.

Top Links 638 The credit card racket. Why Trump wants Greenland. The cislunar economy & the age of the gas mask.

Chartbook • 529 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
đź’° Finance Credit Cards Economy Debt Interest Rates Global Trade
  1. Credit card interest rates in the US can be very high, over 22%, which can be a heavy burden for people carrying balances. It's important to be aware of these costs.
  2. There are discussions around various topics, like why Trump has an interest in Greenland, showing how geopolitics can be tied to business and resources.
  3. The emerging cislunar economy reflects the growing importance of space and its potential impact on our economy and society, underlining how innovation stretches beyond Earth.

Luton Town Finances 2022/23

The Swiss Ramble • 216 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Football Financial results Expenses
  1. Luton Town achieved historic success by being promoted to the top flight of English football for the first time
  2. Despite operating on a low budget, Luton Town faced a notable increase in expenses due to promotion bonuses
  3. Revenue growth for Luton Town in 2022/23 was mainly driven by a significant increase in commercial income

[2025–2026] Week 15: John Neff on Investing

Behavioral Value Investor • 14 implied HN points • 30 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Value investing Portfolio Management Investment strategy Behavioral Finance Stock Valuation
  1. Study John Neff’s approach by mapping his investment style, linking it to his background, and evaluating specific examples and modern stock ideas using the six guided questions.
  2. Great investors leverage a personal knowledge edge and apply a broad set of strategies—stalwarts, cyclicals, turnarounds, and long-term growers—using simple, clear theses rather than overcomplicated models.
  3. Use a disciplined, time-efficient routine like a weekly 10-minute investment autopsy to systematically dissect real decisions and steadily improve your investing process.

The Definitive Guide to Bonds

Market Sentiment • 432 implied HN points • 02 Apr 23
đź’° Finance Investments Bonds Portfolios Interest Rates ETFs
  1. Leverage in bond investments can work well but also lead to significant losses if market conditions change rapidly.
  2. Bond prices are impacted by interest rate movements, where older bonds may lose value with rate hikes.
  3. The choice between individual bonds and bond ETFs depends on factors like diversification needs, fees, and level of investment sophistication.

A Mean Reversion Strategy with 2.11 Sharpe

Quant Trading Rules • 79 implied HN points • 20 May 24
đź’° Finance Trading Strategies Investing Risk management
  1. A mean reversion strategy was tested with rules involving computing rolling means and using the IBS indicator, focusing on bouncing back from market drops.
  2. Implementing a market regime filter significantly reduced drawdowns and exposure time, improving the Sharpe ratio and reducing drawdown durations.
  3. By incorporating a long & short strategy, trading QQQ in bull markets and PSQ in bear markets, a good balance of Sharpe ratio, annual returns, and maximum drawdown was achieved.

The Bear Cave #259

The Bear Cave • 513 implied HN points • 02 Feb 25
đź’° Finance Investing Market Analysis Corporate Governance Financial regulation
  1. New reports from activist investors reveal concerns about companies like Mercury General and FTAI Aviation. These reports suggest significant financial issues and mismanagement that could affect stock prices.
  2. There's a new tool called FOIAsearch.com that makes it easier to find information about SEC investigations and FOIA requests. This can help investors spot potential problems in companies earlier.
  3. Recent executive resignations in companies like Compass Minerals and NextEra Energy indicate instability. Frequent leadership changes can create uncertainty about the company's future.

Yen’s Short-Term Fluctuations and Long-Term Weakness

Japan Economy Watch • 299 implied HN points • 14 Dec 23
đź’° Finance Currency Economy Inflation Interest Rates Trade
  1. Short-term fluctuations of the yen depend on interest rate gaps between Japan and the US, influencing investors to buy/sell yen.
  2. Long-term weakness of the yen is influenced by the competitiveness of Japanese exports, affecting the overall value of the yen.
  3. The purchasing power of the yen relative to its trading partners has decreased significantly over the past 50 years, impacting Japanese households and companies.

Repo Crisis Revisited

The Dollar Endgame • 199 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
đź’° Finance Economic Crisis Federal Reserve Financial system Monetary Policy
  1. The repo market is crucial for global finance, and it broke down in September 2019, causing significant repercussions.
  2. The Federal Reserve has been deeply involved in the repo market to ensure the smooth functioning of the world's secured borrowing system.
  3. In September 2019, there was a sudden surge in overnight money market rates, leading to unexpected fluctuations and challenges in the financial system.

Hedging Inflation with Real Assets

In My Tribe • 622 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Investments Inflation Bonds Real Estate Commodities
  1. Investing in real assets like real estate, gold, and commodities can help protect against inflation. These assets are expected to appreciate more when inflation rises.
  2. Understanding profitability is key when investing. It combines rental income, appreciation, and interest rates to determine if an investment is worth it.
  3. Inflation-indexed bonds (like i-bonds) can be a good hedge but have limits on how much you can buy. They provide some safety against inflation, even though their performance can vary.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 99 implied HN points • 28 Apr 24
đź’° Finance Investing Stocks Market Trends ETFs
  1. Tesla's stock is mainly for those who believe in its future of self-driving cars, rather than just traditional vehicles. If you don't think cars will be autonomous in the future, you might want to skip investing in Tesla.
  2. Tech companies are expected to see significant earnings growth over the next five years. Some of the highest expected growth comes from companies like Micron and AMD, which currently have low earnings but high potential.
  3. Alphabet recently introduced a dividend, which is new for a company that typically reinvests its profits. This may attract more investors looking for immediate returns, similar to what Apple and Meta have done.

A política monetária nos EUA se encontra em território restritivo?

O Observador de Corcyra • 412 implied HN points • 26 Feb 23
đź’° Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Interest Rates Economic Analysis Macroeconomics
  1. The US monetary policy has been restrictive with significant impact on the economy and financial conditions.
  2. There are debates on whether the current monetary policy pace is appropriate or if adjustments should be made.
  3. Models and projections show the complexity of predicting inflation and the impact on future monetary policy decisions.

Bonds are the Ultimate Shitcoin

The Dollar Endgame • 399 implied HN points • 17 Oct 23
đź’° Finance Investing Economics Banking Debt Monetary Policy
  1. Bonds are facing significant challenges with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and inflation, causing a major downturn in the bond market.
  2. Bonds are crucial in the financial system and act as a form of money, affecting various sectors like banking and exposing risks in durations and interest rate movements.
  3. The bond market's current struggles are indicative of larger economic issues, with potential consequences for inflation, debt, and decisions by the Federal Reserve.

Liquidation.

News Items • 216 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Companies Economy Assets Bankruptcy
  1. China Evergrande Group received a liquidation order from a Hong Kong court, amid its massive debt of over $300 billion.
  2. The liquidation process will involve attempting to seize control of Evergrande's assets outside China, including Hong Kong-listed subsidiaries.
  3. The outcome of the liquidation will be a test of Hong Kong court's legal reach and the handling of asset sales in a struggling industry.

Does Private Credit Really Reduce Systemic Risk?

Without Warning • 235 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Private Credit Systemic Risk Banking System Market Trends
  1. Private credit may offer stability due to duration-matched investments and reduced leverage in the banking system.
  2. Money moving into private credit doesn't necessarily reduce overall leverage in the system; just shifts it around.
  3. Private credit's growth can help banks manage capital risks and liquidity challenges, allowing for retranching and reduced regulatory capital requirements.

Momentum

Market Sentiment • 412 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
đź’° Finance Investing Stock Market Momentum Statistics Market Strategies
  1. Momentum investing is based on the idea that winners will keep winning and losers will keep losing.
  2. In a story about finding a lost submarine, leveraging the collective wisdom of diverse individuals led to success.
  3. A simple momentum investing strategy has shown consistent, outperforming results over years and different market conditions.