The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

#Trending: 2Q23 Space SPAC Earnings Scorecard

Case Closed • 216 implied HN points • 03 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing Earnings
  1. When analyzing space SPAC earnings, focus on capital management, scaling efficiency, and solvency metrics.
  2. Evaluate companies based on trends over multiple quarters to understand their financial health.
  3. Different space SPAC companies showcase varying financial positions and strategies, with some focusing on future growth, while others are racing towards profitability.

April 2023 Space Stock Review + 2022 SPAC Guidance Analysis + 1Q23 Earnings Scorecard

Case Closed • 216 implied HN points • 31 May 23
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market SPACs Space Industry
  1. Space stocks lagged behind the broader market in April due to mixed signals and economic uncertainties.
  2. Many space SPACs did not meet their original revenue projections, highlighting the risks involved in relying on overly optimistic guidance.
  3. Evaluating space SPAC earnings can help identify companies that show potential for growth and survival during economic challenges.
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Fortune tellers

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 13 Feb 26
💰 Finance Behavioral Finance Investing Venture Capital Financial Markets Empirical Research
  1. Chinese investors often use superstitions like horoscopes when making investment decisions, showing a cultural difference from the West.
  2. A lab experiment found positive Chinese fortune-telling reports raised willingness to invest by over 20 percentage points, and Chinese horoscopes influenced choices more than Western ones.
  3. Worryingly, venture capital managers were even more swayed than individual investors, so these beliefs can meaningfully affect market behavior.

Economics Links, 2/15/2025

In My Tribe • 243 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economics Trade Health Policy Substack International
  1. The European Union may have created a big, slow government that doesn't serve its people well. Some believe smaller countries manage their affairs better.
  2. Importing goods doesn't always harm jobs; a trade deficit can actually mean a strong economy. More spending and demand can lead to more jobs, not fewer.
  3. Becoming successful on platforms like Substack is tough. It often takes a large existing following or writing about popular subjects to grow your audience.

Reaping the Whirlwind: A September 2022 Inflation Update

Musings on Markets • 699 implied HN points • 27 Sep 22
💰 Finance Inflation Interest Rates Investment Market Trends Economic Impact
  1. Inflation has returned strongly in 2022 after a long period of stability. Many businesses and investors were caught off guard as they hadn't adjusted their strategies for high inflation.
  2. Rising inflation is leading to higher interest rates, which can impact the economy and market investments. This has caused a shift in investor behavior, making them more cautious.
  3. Higher inflation also makes the future of economic growth uncertain. Investors are nervous, and their outlook on the economy has worsened, affecting their investment decisions.

Will Kuroda Blink This Week?

Japan Economy Watch • 399 implied HN points • 14 Jan 23
💰 Finance Economy Interest Rates Inflation Currency Exchange Market Analysis
  1. The Bank of Japan is facing pressure to raise interest rates as the market challenges its efforts to keep rates down.
  2. Despite spending 5% of GDP on purchasing government bonds, the BOJ's attempts to control rates have not been successful.
  3. The future moves of the Bank of Japan will likely affect the yen's value, impacting inflation, trade competitiveness, and overall economic well-being of Japan.

Infographics: Intraday Repo Market Flows

Concoda • 286 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Financial Instruments Banking
  1. The intraday repo market shows how cash moves between banks and institutions. It's important because it helps maintain stability in the financial system.
  2. Visual infographics can help people understand complex market flows clearly. They make the data accessible and engaging for everyone.
  3. Tracking daily repo market timings is useful for understanding financial trends. It allows investors to make informed decisions based on current market conditions.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 59 implied HN points • 13 Apr 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Economics Market Analysis Corporate Finance
  1. Market corrections can happen quickly, but historically, the S&P 500 often recovers most losses in just a few months. It's usually better for long-term investors to hold on rather than sell during downturns.
  2. Apple is working to integrate AI into its products, aiming to boost sales, especially in its Mac line. However, the overall impact might not be enough to offset current weaknesses in iPhone sales.
  3. Several tech companies are expected to see significant sales growth in the coming years. Nvidia, Micron, and Shopify are leading the way, showing that tech is still a strong sector for investment.

💥💥 Two takes on America’s emerging (maybe) productivity boom

Faster, Please! • 822 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economics AI Policy Clean Energy
  1. There are signs of a significant economic transformation with productivity growth outpacing historical averages.
  2. The American economy may be experiencing a new productivity boom, setting it apart from other advanced economies.
  3. The recent productivity upshift is likely a response to a tight hiring environment, prompting firms to boost efficiency and automation.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 318 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Monetary Policy Liquidity management Debt Instruments Investment Strategies
  1. The Federal Reserve is not worried about the debt ceiling impacting its plans to reduce its balance sheet. They believe liquidity in money markets is still high.
  2. The U.S. Treasury has enough resources to manage until around mid-2025, but any delays in addressing the debt ceiling could create funding issues.
  3. Equity repos, which involve borrowing cash using stocks as collateral, are becoming more popular. This trend is linked to rising demand and values of equities.

Stunning SBA7(a) Fraud May Be Largest In Agency's History. Why Isn't Anyone Talking About It?

Fintech Business Weekly • 89 implied HN points • 03 Aug 25
💰 Finance Fraud Banking Investing Lending Regulation
  1. A major fraud scheme linked to the SBA 7(a) loan program involved a company called WaterStation, which is accused of running a Ponzi scheme and taking millions in loans that weren't properly secured.
  2. Lenders, including UniBank and Celtic Bank, allegedly knew or should have known about the fraudulent activities but continued to provide loans, causing severe financial harm to investors.
  3. The fallout from this fraud has led to numerous lawsuits, with victims struggling to repay loans for machines that mostly did not exist, highlighting serious issues in the oversight of loans by the SBA.

Top Links 558 Lending against chips. Cuba's oil collapse. India's financial revolution & Unger on our counterrevolutionary interlude.

Chartbook • 357 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Economics Banking Market Trends Global Finance
  1. There's a growing trend of lending money using chips as collateral, which shows a new way to finance activities. It's like using your poker chips to get cash when you need it!
  2. Cuba's oil industry is facing major challenges, leading to significant changes in the economy there. This might affect everyday life for many Cubans.
  3. India is undergoing a financial revolution that is reshaping how its economy works. This could create more opportunities for people and businesses in the country.

Back of the envelope estimate of mortgage crackdown

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 126 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
💰 Finance Mortgages Housing Economics Debt Market Trends
  1. The number of mortgages has decreased significantly since the housing crisis. This drop is around 15 million more than normal due to stricter lending practices.
  2. Even with the growing adult population, fewer households are being formed, resulting in a shortfall of around 13 million mortgages that would have typically been expected.
  3. Long-term trends show fewer people per household and more unmarried adults, which contribute to the reduced demand for mortgages and homes.

Thesis Drift

MD&A • 118 implied HN points • 29 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Economics Behavioral Finance Market Analysis Public Policy
  1. Investing can be a fun and intellectually stimulating puzzle, similar to solving crosswords or watching movies. If you enjoy it, picking stocks can be a rewarding hobby even if it's not always financially beneficial.
  2. Thesis drift is when investors create new reasons to hold onto a stock after their original reasons have failed. Instead of admitting they were wrong and moving on, they keep justifying their position and often end up losing more money.
  3. In both investing and life, it's important to recognize when a strategy isn't working. Instead of sticking to failed ideas, we should be willing to change course and learn from our mistakes to find better paths.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 17 Dec 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Fixed income Interest Rates Government Policy Market volatility
  1. Existing home sales likely ran at a 4.10 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in November, unchanged from October and about 1.7% below last November; median single-family prices were roughly 1.9% higher year-over-year.
  2. Current-coupon MBS spreads to Treasuries are very low — near late‑2022 levels — driven by unusually low interest-rate volatility and speculation that GSEs will keep buying MBS.
  3. There is concern GSEs are ramping up debt‑financed MBS purchases at the FHFA’s direction; those purchases may be politically motivated, not profitable given low spreads, and not in the public’s financial interest.

The Game is About to Start

Mindset Value • 196 implied HN points • 23 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing Cannabis Private Equity Stocks
  1. The Mindset Value Wellness Fund had a strong performance in Q3, up 27.4% and about 60% for the year.
  2. Potential positive changes in cannabis regulations, like rescheduling, could open up new opportunities for investors.
  3. Investing in companies like Grown Rogue and Glass House with operational excellence and growth potential can lead to significant returns.

Top Links 610 China's procyclical fiscal. Whole Foods v. Trader Joe's. Pakistan's surprise rally & chess dominance.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Investing Market Trends Fiscal policy Consumer behavior
  1. China's fiscal policy has become procyclical, which means it is tightening when the economy needs support. This could actively hinder economic recovery in challenging times.
  2. Whole Foods and Trader Joe's represent contrasting business models, with Whole Foods focusing on premium offerings and Trader Joe's emphasizing value and unique products. This highlights different consumer preferences in grocery shopping.
  3. Pakistan experienced an unexpected rally, demonstrating resilience in its economy, alongside notable achievements in chess. This showcases the potential for growth and excellence in different fields, even in difficult circumstances.

Datadog, Inc. Investment Thesis

The Wolf of Harcourt Street • 459 implied HN points • 14 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investment Revenue Management Risks Opportunities
  1. Datadog is a leading company in cloud-based monitoring, with a diverse customer base and a focus on R&D for innovation and growth.
  2. The cloud monitoring industry is dynamic, with risks like disruption from new technologies and increased competition, but Datadog's market leadership positions it well to benefit from industry growth.
  3. Datadog utilizes a 'Land and Expand' strategy, showing potential for growth as businesses continue to adopt cloud computing technology, offering opportunities for revenue expansion and market share increase.

Short Attacks and Tobacco Stocks

Tidefall Notes • 98 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stocks Investing Market Analysis
  1. Short attacks on tobacco stocks can lead to short-term dips in stock prices, but may not significantly impact a company's overall value or trajectory.
  2. Investing in undervalued sectors like tobacco stocks with strong financials and low valuations can offer potential for growth and profitability.
  3. Understanding industry trends like the shift to next-gen products in tobacco can help investors anticipate stock reratings and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 324 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Money Markets Economic Policy Central Banking Liquidity management Investment strategy
  1. The Federal Reserve plans to keep reducing its balance sheet until at least 2025. This is to normalize financial conditions rather than to tighten the economy.
  2. Recent changes in interest rates show that the Fed is trying to clear extra cash from its programs. This could help push down short-term borrowing rates and shake up financial markets.
  3. Despite a strong U.S. dollar, there's still good liquidity available in the markets. This offers potential support for riskier investments as banks might adjust their capital due to rising stock prices.

Financial Bubbles: How They Make Us Poorer

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 17 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Banking Investments Financial Markets Fiscal policy Macroeconomics Economic Cycles
  1. When central banks pump money and push down interest rates, cheap credit funds projects that wouldn’t be viable under normal market conditions, creating malinvestment and financial bubbles.
  2. Those bubble activities are unsustainable and tend to collapse when money supply growth or cheap lending falls, causing boom–bust cycles, distorted prices, and economic harm.
  3. The cure is to stop monetary meddling and cut government spending so investment reflects real savings and consumer demand; simple tax swaps won’t fix the problem if overall spending keeps rising.

Top Links 540 Gloom over US equities. Soros on investing first and investigating later. Active clubs & the cellular landscape.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
💰 Finance Equities Investing Market Trends Investment strategy Financial Analysis
  1. There's a lot of concern about the future of US stocks, as some experts like Goldman Sachs are predicting gloominess. Many investors are feeling nervous about what comes next.
  2. Soros believes in investing quickly and doing research afterwards, suggesting a bold approach to investing. This method can be risky but may lead to interesting opportunities.
  3. The discussion includes active clubs and the cellular industry, indicating that there are various sectors to pay attention to. These areas might be key for future growth and innovation.

Top Links 539 Peru's blueberry boom. El Salvador's $1 billion US-backed loan & the legacy of migrant jails.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
💰 Finance Investing Economics Loans Trade Market Trends
  1. Peru is seeing a big increase in blueberry production, which is good for its economy. Blueberries are becoming a popular export from the country.
  2. El Salvador has received a $1 billion loan from the US, which is aimed at improving economic conditions. This is part of a larger effort to support the country's development.
  3. There is ongoing discussion about the long-lasting effects of migrant jails. These facilities have complex legacies that affect many communities.

Top Links 603 How BATMMAAN stocks rule. Global coal keeps on rising & the US builds its first heavy ice breaker in half a century.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Global Economy Investment Trends
  1. There are now 8 stocks in America that are worth over $1 trillion, often called the BATMMAAN stocks. These companies are very influential in the market.
  2. Global coal production is increasing, which shows that the demand for coal is still strong despite environmental concerns.
  3. The U.S. is building its first heavy icebreaker in 50 years. This is significant as it enhances the country's capabilities in Arctic waters.

FinCEN, Banking Regulators Clarify CIP Rule's TIN Collection Requirements

Fintech Business Weekly • 111 implied HN points • 29 Jun 25
💰 Finance Banking Regulations Payments Technology Consumer Credit
  1. New banking rules from FinCEN allow banks to collect taxpayer ID numbers differently. This makes it easier for customers to open accounts without giving out sensitive information right away.
  2. The Synapse bankruptcy case is still ongoing, with discussions about how to best manage and store important data related to the case. There are concerns about costs and the future of the data storage.
  3. There's a growing interest in stablecoins from big financial companies, with new regulations and products being developed. However, experts are cautious about their long-term impact on traditional banking systems.