The hottest Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Cathie Wood is as bullish as ever.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 19 Nov 22
💰 Finance Investing Stocks ETFs Market Trends Innovation
  1. Cathie Wood believes innovation in technology will drastically grow in the future. She thinks areas like AI and blockchain will reshape industries and bring big profits.
  2. Despite recent losses in her main fund, she sees this as a chance for investment. Wood is still confident in the companies she backs, claiming their potential for growth remains strong.
  3. Wood warns about the risk of economic downturn if current policies remain unchanged. She advocates for companies to invest in their growth during these challenging times.

Alternative Investment Guide #3 - Equity Crowdfunding

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 59 implied HN points • 25 Jul 23
💰 Finance Investing Crowdfunding Equity Risk management Startups
  1. Equity crowdfunding lets everyday people invest in startups by buying shares. This means you can own a small part of a new company, hoping it grows in value over time.
  2. Investors can make money through equity ownership, dividends, or selling their shares later if the company does well. However, there's always a risk of losing your investment since many startups fail.
  3. Before investing, it's important to research the company and its team, as well as understand the risks involved. Doing your homework can help you find promising investments.

Does A Weak Yen Really Help Japan?

Japan Economy Watch • 199 implied HN points • 12 Feb 22
💰 Finance Economics Currency Trade Income Inflation
  1. A weak yen has atrophied Japan's economic muscles as it relies on it like a crutch, impacting household income and overall economic growth negatively.
  2. Japan's export-driven growth fueled by a weak yen contrasts with Korea's growth driven by innovative products and efficiency improvements, leading to a significant difference in economic performance.
  3. The weak yen raises import prices and benefits big companies over consumers, showing how it indirectly transfers income and highlights the impact on inflation and household spending.

Nobody Expected Our Current Interest-Rate Configuration

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 153 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates Monetary Policy Economic outlook Federal Reserve Inflation
  1. Many were surprised by the current interest-rate situation in the US, with rates significantly higher than expected.
  2. Market changes in 2022 led to a drastic increase in long-term real safe interest rates, signaling shifts in Federal Reserve policy.
  3. The current interest-rate configuration, considerably higher than anticipated, raised concerns about a looming recession among experts.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Thematics for 2026

Subsack • 4 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
💰 Finance Equities Tech Healthcare Energy Commodities Crypto Defense Infrastructure Macro
  1. AI and its infrastructure are the central investment theme, with big-model companies, chips, and a huge jump in storage demand (RAM and disk) driving a tech supercycle.
  2. Government action and geopolitics are reshaping markets, as strategic funding, regulation, and supply‑chain moves boost defence, rare earths, nuclear, and give crypto/stablecoins clearer legitimacy.
  3. Portfolios are being rebalanced for 2026: new themes like storage, drones, LNG, robotics and space are being added while travel, luxury, gambling and clean energy are being trimmed; pharma, crypto and precious metals stay as key hedges.

A Brief Technical Review of the Alternative Housing Story

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Economics Housing Market Credit Supply and Demand
  1. Cities like Los Angeles face housing supply issues due to low permit approvals compared to cities like Atlanta and Phoenix.
  2. National housing market statistics can be misleading as there are extreme regional differences.
  3. The myth of a credit bubble causing price bubbles is debunked, with evidence showing price spikes before rise in debt in housing markets.

The Nuclear Narrative

The Last Bear Standing • 53 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Analysis Energy Policy
  1. Nuclear power is getting a lot of hype and some companies are seeing big stock gains. This is partly because there's a growing demand for energy from datacenters.
  2. However, the nuclear industry has been shrinking for many years, with no new large plants in development and existing plants facing high costs and old age.
  3. Even though small nuclear reactors are in the works, they won't be ready soon and are unlikely to be cheap or meet the growing energy needs.

Builder Incentives and Profits

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Investment Strategies Mortgage Finance Economic Trends
  1. Builders like Lennar are using cash discounts to sell homes, which can create a misleading price for buyers. Buyers may end up paying more due to high 'menu prices' even if they think they are getting a good deal.
  2. There are risks for mortgaged buyers when home prices fall. They might be stuck with a mortgage amount that is higher than the real value of their home, leading to losses or foreclosure situations.
  3. Unlike in past housing crises, current market conditions have regulators and the Federal Reserve focused on avoiding a housing crash. The situation today is more stable, reducing the chances of a major crisis like in 2008.

PROJECT SYNDICATE: What Is the Fed Thinking?

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 161 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Inflation Economy
  1. The US Federal Reserve is hesitant to adjust its policy interest rate despite the economy being in balance.
  2. The Fed remains cautious about aligning rates with the neutral rate due to uncertainties in the economic outlook and inflation risks.
  3. The announcement of maintaining the federal funds rate range at 5.25-5.5% raised concerns given the already balanced US macroeconomy.

Crazy bets on 2025 - 12 personal hedge funds predict the year

Five Links (and three graphs) by Auren Hoffman • 56 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Predictions Economics Betting Market Analysis
  1. A group of twelve people made predictions about 2025 and placed bets on the outcomes. This makes it fun and competitive to see who can guess the future better.
  2. Last year's predictions didn't go well overall, with only a few being correct. It shows that forecasting the future can be really tricky.
  3. This year, they have some bold predictions about events in politics, the economy, and culture. Some predictions sound far-fetched, but others seem more likely.

The Opinion Of Sheep

Some Unpleasant Arithmetic • 16 implied HN points • 10 Aug 25
💰 Finance Economic Policy International Markets Monetary Policy Inflation Debt Management
  1. The US economy seemed fine for a while, but suddenly there was a big drop in consumer spending and job market stats. This showed that things can change quickly in economic situations.
  2. Argentina's economy has had ups and downs recently, with stable inflation dropping from earlier highs, but political transitions and financial mismanagement may put future progress at risk.
  3. Changes in monetary policies can lead to unpredictable economic outcomes, especially if the government isn't careful about managing money supply and interest rates.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011”

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgage Economics Market Trends Home Prices Delinquencies
  1. Home price growth was the slowest since 2011, ending the year at just 3.4%. This is significantly lower than the growth rates seen in previous years.
  2. The number of homes for sale increased by 22% in 2024, which is the highest level of inventory since mid-2020. Some markets are even back to pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Mortgage delinquencies have started to rise, especially with FHA and VA loans. This suggests potential issues in mortgage performance could become more prominent in 2025.

The Market Is Puking Back Good News

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 31 Jul 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Stock Analysis Investment strategy Economic Indicators Earnings Reports
  1. Meta and Microsoft reported strong earnings, surprising many with better-than-expected results. However, despite this good news, the stock market started to drop after an initial rise.
  2. The market is showing signs of stress, particularly because a few large companies dominate it. If their stock prices fall, the whole market could be affected significantly.
  3. Valuation matters just as much as earnings. Even with good earnings reports, if investors feel prices are too high, they may start selling off stocks.

The Fed and Lennar

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Markets Investing Economics Monetary Policy Real Estate
  1. Inflation is still high, which affects the economy and people's spending. It's a major concern for many people right now.
  2. The Fed raises borrowing costs to control inflation, but this can also influence mortgage rates. Higher borrowing costs usually mean higher mortgage rates.
  3. There's a belief that when the Fed slows down on rate cuts, mortgage rates will rise further, impacting people's desire to buy homes. However, this idea may not be as straightforward as it seems.

November 2024 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Mortgage Rates Construction Employment
  1. Mortgage rates are really important for the housing market. They can greatly affect both people's ability to buy homes and the rate of construction jobs.
  2. Tracking construction employment can give insights into the housing market trends. It’s a clear indicator of how the market is responding to interest rates.
  3. There are ongoing challenges in the housing market, and the data can sometimes seem tricky. It's like a game where understanding the numbers is key to navigating the situation.

June 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker and Inflation Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 17 Jul 25
💰 Finance Housing Economics Inflation Real Estate Monetary Policy
  1. Core inflation has stayed close to the Fed's 2% target for 36 months, showing stability even as jobs have held steady.
  2. Currently, home prices are much higher than normal due to supply issues, with the average home significantly overpriced in major metro areas.
  3. Access to credit is also a big problem, lowering home prices but complicating the supply situation, making it hard for buyers.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory
  1. Existing home sales increased for three months in a row, but they are still much lower than before the pandemic. December's sales were about 21% below the average from 2017 to 2019.
  2. Inventory of homes for sale is rising sharply in regions like Florida and Texas, with a year-over-year increase of 17.5%. This suggests more options for buyers in those areas.
  3. There were more new listings in December compared to last year, but they are still at historically low levels. The increase in new listings may hint at some recovery in the housing market.

July 2025 Homebuilder Thoughts

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investing Housing Market Analysis Economic Trends Real Estate
  1. The housing market could be misjudging homebuilders, suggesting a chance for profit. It's important to pay attention to the factors affecting builders' performance.
  2. There may be systematic issues in how the market is evaluating the homebuilding sector. Understanding these issues can help in making informed decisions.
  3. Investors should consider the potential for trading gains by looking deeper into the housing market trends and builder performance.

The chroniclers of the crypto collapse

The Future, Now and Then • 175 implied HN points • 19 Dec 23
💰 Finance Crypto Books Journalism Scandal Investigation
  1. Authors faced with unexpected events can choose to adjust their approach or stay true to their original vision.
  2. Different writers responded differently to the changing fortunes in the blockchain world, resulting in varied books.
  3. Michael Lewis' book about the crypto collapse did not adapt to the unfolding events and may eventually be forgotten.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 4 Leamer's Counsel

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Monetary Policy Economic Cycles Real Estate
  1. Housing start numbers are key indicators of upcoming recessions. When fewer homes are being built, it's often a sign that an economic downturn is near.
  2. The Federal Reserve may have waited too long to react to a housing market that was overheating, which ultimately could have led to more severe economic issues later on.
  3. In cities with strict building regulations, rising housing prices are often due to limited supply rather than demand. This creates significant issues like rent inflation and forced migration.

Hsieh, Moretti, Shiller, and the Rest: Part 3

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Home Prices Rent Inflation
  1. The rise in home prices is mainly due to obstruction of urban housing rather than urban productivity.
  2. High urban rents have increased nationally post-2008 due to federal lending policies lowering housing production everywhere.
  3. Rising rents explain almost all of the increase in home prices, with excess rent accounting for a significant portion of residential real estate value.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 2 Respecting the Timeline

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. Home prices in cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas showed clear patterns before and after the 2008 housing crisis. They experienced a boom, then a downturn when lending tightened.
  2. During the crisis, low-tier home prices dropped more than high-tier prices. This happened because many poor families couldn't afford housing and had to move around or suffer from rising rents.
  3. Areas like Miami and Tampa had different dynamics, with more separation in low-tier prices before the crisis. They faced ongoing housing shortages, causing continual price increases even after the market correction.

Was Fintech's Biggest Lending "Innovation" A Willingness To Serve Riskier Borrowers By Charging Higher Rates?

Fintech Business Weekly • 237 implied HN points • 09 Jul 23
💰 Finance Fintech Lending Venture Capital Banking Consumer Credit
  1. Fintech lenders rely heavily on conventional credit scores like FICO and possibly overcharge riskier borrowers.
  2. Fintech's main 'innovation' is serving borrowers banks reject by charging higher interest rates.
  3. Goldman Sachs is looking to offload its Apple partnership, showcasing the shifting landscape of fintech engagements.

The Silver Bull Is Finally Here

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 16 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Precious metals Market Trends Economic Analysis Global Economy
  1. Silver is experiencing a significant price increase and is expected to outperform gold as the market shifts. This could be a great time to invest in silver before prices rise higher.
  2. Demand for silver is growing due to its use in technology and renewable energy, especially solar panels. However, silver production is struggling to keep up with this rising demand.
  3. The current economic conditions, like inflation and instability in traditional financial assets, are pushing investors toward silver, seen as a safer and more stable investment.

Only in Hell Can the Dow Ever Climb

The False Consensus Effect • 39 implied HN points • 10 Oct 23
💰 Finance Economy Investing Stock Market Wealth Retirement
  1. The author discusses the complexities of wealth, power, and inequalities tied to investment portfolios, questioning the morality behind profiting from people's suffering
  2. A critical view is presented on the impact of financial markets, politicians, and media propagating a system that prioritizes profit over social justice
  3. The importance of reflecting on societal values, advocating for equity, and challenging the status quo of wealth accumulation and economic structures

Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Economics Federal Reserve Housing Market
  1. The current monetary policy is not tight enough to be called restrictive. This means people can still borrow money relatively easily.
  2. Tom Lawler has discussed the 'Neutral' rate of interest a lot. Understanding this rate helps us know how the economy might react to changes in interest rates.
  3. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell suggest that the interest rate environment is still being evaluated, which could affect future economic policies.

Peacetime Bank Stress Tests: Who's That For?

Without Warning • 39 implied HN points • 19 Feb 23
💰 Finance Banking Capital Regulation Risk management Investors
  1. The purpose of stress tests for banks in peacetime is not necessarily to predict future crises, but to ensure banks have enough capital and that the tests are tough and variable.
  2. It's important for stress test scenarios to change and remain tough to prevent banks from manipulating their capital levels and misrepresenting their financial health.
  3. The public stress test process during peacetime may not have a significant impact on capital allocation to the banking sector, unlike crisis-time stress tests.

FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates Real Estate Credit Scores Economic Trends Housing Market
  1. Current mortgage rates remain high, especially above 6%, making it hard for homeowners to sell and buy new homes. Most people with lower rates don't want to move because their payments would go up.
  2. More than half of all outstanding loans are now under 4%, showing how many people got favorable rates during the pandemic. This is a big reason why available homes for sale are currently low.
  3. Market sentiment is hesitant, with many potential buyers waiting for mortgage rates to drop into the 5% range before they consider purchasing a home.